Japan s Nuclear Future the most mysterious energy policy -

Transcription

1 8 th Annual European Nuclear Power 2013 June 26-27, Warsaw, Poland 1 Japan s Nuclear Future the most mysterious energy policy - June Tomoko (Tom) Murakami Manager, Nuclear Energy Group The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik -

2 Contents 1. Current status of Japanese nuclear power sector (1) Nuclear development strategies in major countries after Fukushima (2) Analysis the reason of necessity of nuclear (3) Discussions on the energy policy and nuclear development 2. The new safety regulatory standards and the way to restart (1) What actions have been taken since Fukushima accident? (2) New Safety Standard (3) Opinions from the operators/experts (4) Way to restarting NPPs unclear 3. Strategies and Provisions of Plant Vendors in the World Nuclear Power Market (1) What is nuclear market in the world? (2) Market players in competition and cooperation (3) Japan s stance for exporting nuclear technology after Fukushima accident (4) Policy implications from ASEAN newcomers to the nuclear market Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik - 2

3 0. Foreword Prime Minister Abe visited Poland on June to cement energy ties with East European leaders Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and the prime ministers Donald Tusk of Poland, Petr Necas of the Czech Republic, Viktor Orban of Hungary and Robert Fico of Slovakia, agreed to deepen cooperation in energy, including nuclear and renewable power. Since the four nations are planning to boost nuclear power generation to meet rising demand for energy, Abe is hoping the summit will also generate demand for Japanese infrastructure projects, especially nuclear power technology, as well as investment that can help revive the world s third-largest economy. The Japanese side confirmed its responsibility to contribute to enhanced nuclear safety worldwide by sharing knowledge and the lessons learned from the 2011 Fukushima disaster. Japan s nuclear marketing strategy is still active! Source: 16 June 2013, the Japan Times Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik - 3

4 4 1. Current status of Japanese nuclear energy sector (1) Nuclear development strategies in major countries after Fukushima (2) Analysis the reason of necessity of nuclear (3) Discussions on the energy policy and nuclear development Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik -

5 1.(1) Nuclear development strategies in major countries after Fukushima Pro China Maintaining the rapid development policy with advanced safety 40 GW by 2015, 70 GW by 2020 India No change to the government s nuclear development policy Rajasthan 7/8 will be in operation in 2016 France Nuclear is one of the core competence as ever US We must rely on a diverse set of energy sources including renewables, natural gas, clean coal and nuclear power. Russia Maintaining the development policy based on the energy plan South Korea New construction works continuing even after the election in 2012 Anti Italy National vote in June 2013, forbidding new nuclear Switzerland Determined phasing nuclear out by 2034 Germany Governmental commitment on phasing nuclear out by 2022 Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik - 5

6 1.(2) Analysis the reason of necessity of nuclear power The common factors in countries that have not changed their nuclear development policies Tight energy supply-demand balance Demand for a rapid accumulation of power capacities Underdeveloped social infrastructure which would be crucial for their sustainable economic and industrial growth Chinese reactors are safer than those in Germany? ->Completely no! Developing countries need nuclear NOT because it is absolutely safe, BUT simply because it can meet the energy demand increase along with economic growth. The safety concerns with regard to nuclear power are as severe in China, India, Pakistan as they are in the US, Europe, Japan and South Korea. The most realistic solution : to continue developing nuclear power along with their energy demand, paying maximum attention to the safety problems and solving them step by step. Only rich countries can afford discussions of phasing nuclear out. By Mykola Azalov, the Ukrainian Prime Minister, March 15, 2011 Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik - 6

7 1.(3)Discussions on the energy policy and nuclear development Can renewables be alternative options for zero-nuclear? Renewables (%) The governmental committee proposed three options 0%, 15%, 20-25% nuclear in Decreasing nuclear will push THERMAL forward, not renewables 40 Zero-Nuclear Phasing nuclear out 20%-Nuclear 30 15%-Nuclear 25%-Nuclear Strategic Energy Plan of Thermal 65 Thermal Actual Thermal 50 Thermal Nuclear (%) Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik - 7

8 1.(3)Discussions on the energy policy and nuclear development Contradictory issues in the new Innovative Strategy On September 14, 2012, the Energy and Environment Council decided an Innovative Strategy for Energy and the Environment. No more new nuclear power plant construction Restrict the operation period of existing plants strictly to 40 years Nuclear restart would be permitted under the consensus of NRA Make every effort to achieve zero nuclear power generation in 2030s But CONTINUE the current nuclear fuel cycle policies Source: National Policy Unit On September 19, 2012, the Cabinet decided that the government will continue its energy and environmental policies, taking into account the decision of the EEC, with flexibility and continuous verification. Not yet decided anything certain Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik - 8

9 1.(3)Discussions on the energy policy and nuclear development After the landslide victory of LDP to DPJ in December 2012 After the landslide victory at the Lower House election in December 2012, the Prime Minister Abe Cabinet started. Prime Minister Abe declared to make a firm energy policy. DPJ s energy policy is only wish, therefore we make a firm energy policy. Minister of Economy, Trade and industry said : It is necessary to review DPJ s Energy Policy. Concerning about construction new NPP, we make political decision accumulating expert knowledge. A new governmental committee, General Subcommittee has started a comprehensive discussion on the energy policy in March The new policy should focus on sustainable supply of energy and cost reduction. Nuclear would be more discussed together with the back-end policy. Zero-nuclear is likely to be reconsidered with the exporting strategy still alive, but would not be quantified. Due to the unclear application of the new regulation standard. Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik - 9

10 10 2. The new safety regulatory standards and the way to restart (1) What actions have been taken since Fukushima accident? (2) New Safety Standard (3) Opinions from the operators/experts (4) Way to restarting NPPs unclear Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik -

11 2.(1)What actions have been taken since Fukushima accident? Utilities 11 March Fukushima Accident March August Immediate Safety Measures July 2011 August 2012 Assessment on the Stress Test -> 30 units submitted July 2012 Ohi-3/4 restart Preparing for licensing documents for restart 10 May Public comment to the Safety Standard Safety Regulatory Authority March 23 Order on Immediate Safety Measures March 2012 Ohi-3/4 Report approved by NISA/ASC 6 July Order on the Stress Test September 2012 NRA Launch April 10 May 10 Public comment to the Safety Standard October 2012 Expert Committees (19 as of June 2013) Study Team on the New Safety Standard Study Team on the On-site Faults 6-28 February Public comment inquiry to the Draft Safety Standard Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik - 11

12 2.(2) New Safety Standard The draft New Safety Standards have been released in April 2013, public comments were inquired until 10 May. NRA and their study teams will put the public comments together to endorse the new safety standards. New safety standards expected to be enforced in July NRA released three draft safety standards; Safety Standard for Design Basis Safety measures against natural phenomena (e.g., tornados, forest fires) external man-made hazards (e.g., an aircraft crash), the reliability of off-site power supply, ultimate heat sink and the functions of SSCs, as well as fire protection measures Safety Standard for Severe Accident plants are to be equipped with such facility as: filtered containment vessel venting system permanent and portable coolant injection equipment power generation vehicles and connecting facilities Specific Safety Facilities (SSFs) etc.. Safety Standard for Earthquakes and Tsunamis protective measures such as sea walls against tsunamis, anti-inundation measures, no construction of Class S nuclear facilities on the exposure of active faults should be prepared. Source: NRA Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik - 12

13 2.(3) Opinions from the operators/experts The new Safety Standards should be: Based on Defense-in-Depth, evaluate the management under beyond-design condition. Discussed and determined based on scientific and technically reasonable evidences. Plant life limit within 40 years Definition and assessment of active faults etc The current draft Safety Standards fail the exam by: Not the performance-based regulation but only the hardware regulation, little room for alternative measures Diversified emergency power sources Containment venting systems Alternative control center etc Violate the Defense-in-Depth concept not prepared for unexpected events Little consideration on the relative risk Excessively severe among other countries in the world -> beyond the international standards Professor Koji Okamoto The University of Tokyo Examples of the hardware regulation required by NRA Permanent facility for lower PCV coolant injection/ Filtered venting system Source: Lessons learned from Fukushima Daiichi NPP Accident and Japanese regulations, Professor Koji Okamoto, the University of Tokyo, Nuclear Safety Symposium, 26 February 2013, Tokyo Denki Shimbun, April 23, May 13 Professor Akira Yamaguchi Osaka University Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik - 13

14 2.(4) Way to restarting NPPs unclear Items FY2012 FY2013 New Safety Standards -Severe accidents -Back-fits -Earthquake & Tsunami Preliminary Draft proposals Hearing from Operators/experts Public comments inquiry Draft proposals in early April Discussions among Operators, experts and NRA? July 18 New Standards is to be enforced Investigation on the on-site fracture zones Study Team meetings Hearings from operators/experts Supplementary investigations Operation schedule Works for supplementary safety enhancement Preliminary works for the new safety standards Safety Assessments for the restart? Operators cannot decide when to restart. NRA has no incentive to hurry the restart. Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik - 14

15 15 3. Strategies and Provisions of Plant Vendors in the World Nuclear Power Market (1) What is nuclear market in the world? (2) Market players in competition and cooperation (3) Japan s stance for exporting nuclear technology after Fukushima accident (4) Policy implications from ASEAN newcomers to the nuclear market Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik -

16 3.(1) What is nuclear market in the world? Demand side Page 5-6 Matured market High growth market Emerging market Declining market World nuclear market Design Construction Operation Maintenance Decommissioning Page 22 Supply side Major and longestablished vendors Suppliers New vendors Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik - 16

17 3.(2) Market players in competition and cooperation Major nuclear vendors are in the US, France, Japan, Russia, Canada New comers from South Korea and China Areva Mitsubishi Westing house Toshiba GE Hitachi Canada Russia South Korea China Over 1.5 GW EPR Under review for NRC-DC Japanese 3.5+ PWR EU-APWR US-APWR Under review for NRC-DC Japanese 3.5+ BWR ESBWR Under review for NRC-DC JV in US and in Japan since April 2008 VVER CAP GW ATMEA-1 Basic Design Process completed Proposing to Turkey KERENA (Former SWR- PWR PWR ABWR AP-1000 NRC-DC approved ABWR Renewal preapplication for NRC- DC ABWR/BWR ACR-1000 CAN DU AES VVER APR-1400 Under constructi on in UAE OPR ACPR CPR NRC-DC : Design Certification Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik - 17

18 3.(3) Japan s stance for exporting nuclear technology after Fukushima accident Government of Japan Continue to offer nuclear technologies of the highest safety It is the responsibility of Japan to contribute to strengthening nuclear safety worldwide by sharing with the world its experience and lessons derived from the nuclear accident of last year, and to offer its nuclear technologies of the highest standard in safety in the world to those foreign countries which wish to utilize nuclear technologies of our country, taking into account the situation and will of those countries. Source: Innovative Strategy for Energy and the Environment, National Policy Unit, 14 September 2012 Effective bilateral agreement with: Kazakhstan, May 2011 South Korea, January 2012 Vietnam, January 2012 Jordan, February 2012 Private companies JAPC and JINED Inks Memorandum on Cooperation with Electricity of Vietnam On September 28, 2011,the Japan Atomic Power Company (JAPC) and Electricity of Vietnam (EVN) signed an agreement on the implementation of a feasibility study to build a nuclear power plant (NPP) on a second site in Ninh Thuan Province. On September 29, JINED, also signed a memorandum with the Vietnamese firm on cooperation in the second project. Source: JAIF TEPCO has announced nothing yet Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik - 18

19 3.(4) Policy implications from ASEAN newcomers to the nuclear market These would be highly recommended by ASEAN newcomers: Thorough review of the Fukushima accident with sufficient explanations and analyses from related parties in Japan and, most of all, information sharing with all international organizations in relation ( i.e. IAEA) would be the top priority. Safety regulatory authorities and governmental / private nuclear industries in Northeastern Asia would learn lessons from Fukushima through IAEA or Japanese authorities. South Korea, China and Japan can share intelligences and cooperate even while competing in the areas of: Capacity building for infrastructure and human resources Training, implicating and education for operation and maintenance Emergency preparedness Working together with Nuclear Energy Agency/OECD, Nuclear Regulatory Commission (US) to introduce an advanced safety standard would be also important to catch up with the global nuclear safety consensus. Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik - 19

20 20 Dziękuję bardzo Thank you Vielen Dank Merci beaucoup Tack så mycket Muchas gracias Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik -

21 A-1 Trends by Category 1. Countries using and promoting nuclear power 2. Countries required to substantially expand nuclear power 3. Countries planning to introduce nuclear power 4. Countries tending to decrease nuclear power Countries in category 1 &2, those position nuclear power as an important part of an energy portfolio maintain giving priority to nuclear power development. 100 Countries in category 4, 20 3 those have traditionally 0 hesitated further nuclear power development feature -20 growing arguments against -40 nuclear. C apacity added in (G W ) China India Russia M iddle East S.K orea A SEA N 4 Sw eden Germ any 1 France C apacity in 2011 (G W ) Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik - 21 US

22 Generation (GWh) A-2 Why was (is) nuclear necessary in Japan? 22 Scarcity of Energy Resources High import dependence, especially on Middle East -> Since the oil crises in the 1970s Japan has diversified energy sources Carbon Dioxide Reductions Even after Fukushima accident, these reasons still exist. 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , Renewables Geothermal/new energy Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal Year Geotherm al/new energy 1% Trend of the generation by fuel from 1971 to 2011 in Japan Source: Energy Balances of OECD Countries, IEA Nuclear 10% Renewabl Hydro es 8% 7% 1% 2% 2% Coal 27% 34% Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik % Gas 34% 1,071TWh(2010) 1,049TWh(2011) 27% 9% Oil 11%

23 A-3 Former Policy and the Goal Strategic Energy Plan of 2010 Aiming to raise the share of zero-emission power sources from 34% to 70%, New construction and extension of 14 nuclear reactors -> raise the capacity utility factor from 60% to 90%. Introduce renewable energy to 2.4 times the current level (15 times excluding hydropower). Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik - 23

24 A-4 Nuclear Regulation Authority launch in September 2012 Core value The NRA was to established to absorb and learn the lessons of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident of March 11, The nuclear safety system and management must be rebuilt on a solid basis, placing the highest priority on public safety and a genuine safety culture. Guiding Principles for activities : Independence and Transparency Independent Decision Making Effective Actions Open and Transparent Organization Improvement and Commitment Emergency Response (preparedness) Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik - 24

25 A-5 Arguments on the on-site fracture zones - Tsuruga 4 expert meetings, 1 site visit and 1 peer reviews were held from December 2012 to May On May 22, NRA concluded that the fracture zones under the reactor building of Tsuruga Unit 2 is surely an active fault, which should be avoided as a nuclear facility, though JAPC is still continuing the survey. JAPC asked an international expert group to assess the fracture zones and the interim report has been issued on May 21. What made NRA jump to conclusions?? Source: JAPC website, April 24, Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik - 25

26 A-6 Japan s strategy for exporting nuclear technology Nuclear Energy National Plan clearly pronounces active supports to private companies advancing to international nuclear markets. Internationally expanding the Japanese nuclear power industry is a key goal in the New Growth Strategy released in June In October 2010, the Government-Private Joint Organization, the International Nuclear Energy Development of Japan (JINED) created. Cooperation by Utilities as well as Plant Manufacturers would be crucial to support newcomers in the area of operation and maintenance with high safety technologies. -> 75% of shares are utilities. Type Company Ratio Electric Utilities 75% Manufacturers 15% Hokkaido 5% Tohoku 5% Tokyo 20% Chubu 10% Hokuriku 5% Kansai 15% Chugoku 5% Shikoku 5% Kyushu 5% Toshiba 5% Hitachi 5% Mitsubishi 5% Other 10% INCJ 10% Japans kärn framtid - den mest mystiska energipolitik - 26 strategier och bestämmelser växt leverantörer i världen kärnkraftsmarknaden