Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)

Transcription

1 WMO World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) --Challenges and Opportunities to the SPACE Community Wenjian ZHANG Director, Observing and Information Systems Department, WMO Director, WMO Space Programme

2 The Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) A New Partnership Process WMO Climate Space Week, Feb.2013, Geneva, Swiss

3 A historic event (31 Aug 4 Sept, 2009, Geneva)

4 Cg.-Ext Resolutions WMO OMM Resolution 1: Implementation Plan Resolution 2: Governance Structure Resolution 3: Budget ess_reports_en.html

5 Structure of Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) Space and surface Architecture 5

6 Major Challenges! Meet new observing requirements

7 The GFCS initial priority areas Provide challenges & opportunities for new partnership to address new observational requirements via user communities Agriculture Water Health Disaster Risk Reduction

8 Key challenges identified through consultations Accessibility: many countries do not have climate services at all, and all countries have scope to improve access to such services. Capacity: many countries lack the capacity to anticipate and manage climate related risks and opportunities. Data: the current availability and quality of climate observations and impacts data are inadequate for large parts of the globe. Partnership: interactions between climate service users and providers are not always well developed, and user requirements are not always adequately understood and addressed. Quality: operational climate services are lagging advances in climate and applications sciences, and the spatial and temporal resolution of information is often insufficient to match user requirements.

9 Gaps in current scientific and technical WMO OMM capabilities--observation and monitoring systems Records of climate data should be assembled in standardized formats, archived in accessible electronic formats. Records should be accompanied by metadata describing history of the observational instrumentation, calibration history, over its lifetime.. These metadata are complete as far as possible, free from major gaps, fit for purpose, homogeneous and readily accessible

10 Gaps in current scientific and technical WMO OMM capabilities--observation and monitoring systems Some observations (in the land, ocean and satellite domains) have not yet been moved to a more permanent operational environment or connected to the existing climate services information systems. Climate monitoring from space does not yet have an internationally-agreed architecture, although efforts to achieve this are underway. Satellite obs have limitations such as in rainfall estimation, The deep ocean is not satisfactorily observed as yet. Climate information needs to be integrated with social and economic data, for achieveing full benefits.

11 GFCS Observations & Monitoring Pillar Re-focus & strengthen systems to support GFCS operations: Addresses important gaps in climate observations, including addressing the weaknesses of the observation networks in the most vulnerable, risk-prone and remote areas, LDC & developing countries Addresses difficulties in transforming research-based observations into operations, promotes the integration of remotely-sensed and in situ observations Promotes the free and open exchange of climate-relevant observational data while respecting property rights and national and international policies.

12 A number of major drought events from WMO OMM

13 Exemplary Grand Challenges: Droughts Satellite monitoring of soil moisture can support agriculture/food security, DRR, Water and health WCRP Workshop on Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate Barcelona, March 2011 Three Major Recommendations: 1. Drought Catalogue Summarizing key drivers of global drought events. 2. Case Studies Focusing on large-scale and regional issues in areas where drought is a key issue. 3. Develop Drought Early Warning System 14

14 The ESA SMOS Global Soil Moisture Map (20-23 June 2010) --This dataset is extremely important for improving rainfall forecasting, climate and agriculture P. Richaume, CESBIO

15 Absolute soil moisture (top) and soil moisture anomalies (bottom) for the period July to September 2012 derived from the Advanced WMO OMM Scatterometer (ASCAT) flown on board of the METOP satellites.

16 Great Opportunity!! Build new Partnership with UN family and their Members engage them on ECV applications and operation ---WMO, WHO, UNISDR, FAO, UN-Water

17 ECV Inventory Response so far (1/2) WMO OMM ECV inventory now contains 171 records submitted for 11 responsible organizations No records were submitted for the following ECVs: carbon dioxide, methane, and greenhouse gases; sea state; sea surface salinity; lakes; above ground biomass; ice sheets Some records are incomplete and we encourage organizations to continue submitting data so we may begin conducting analyses Some organizations have stated this is a partial submission list and require more time The 26 th CEOS Plenary Bengaluru, India October, 2012

18 Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO) Margaret Chan (L) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary-General, Michel Jarraud (R) --Pose with the Atlas of Health And Climate, during a press conference on the extraordinary session of World Meteorological Congress on October 29, 2012 in Geneva. --With droughts, floods and hurricanes like the one bearing down on New York affecting the health of millions of people each year, WMO and WHO health agencies presented an overview of how climate data can help protect public health.

19 Why should the health sector engage? Meteorological conditions affect some of the largest disease burdens: - Under nutrition kills 3.5 million/yr - Diarrhoea kills 2.2 million/yr - Malaria kills 900,000/yr - Hydrometeorological extremes kill 10s of thousands, and cause multiple other health effects WMO Climate Space Week

20 Approximately deaths in children under five each year (over 8% of the global total) are due to pneumonia caused by household air pollution

21 Global Black Carbon Emissions from combustion, in Gigagrams (Gg). This includes emissions from fossil fuels and biofuels such as household biomass (2000)

22 Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution Science and Measurement Requirements, Instrument and Mission Concept Kelly Chance, Xiong Liu, Raid Suleiman Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory David Flittner, NASA LaRC Scott Janz, NASA GSFC Jay Al-Saadi, NASA HQ/NASA LaRC The TEMPO Science Team The TEMPO Management Team Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corp. 93rd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, Austin, TX January 7, 2013

23 TEMPO Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution Hourly atmospheric pollution observations from geostationary Earth orbit PI: Kelly Chance, Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory Instrument Development: Ball Aerospace Project Management/Science: NASA LaRC Other Institutions: NASA GSFC, NOAA, EPA, NCAR, Harvard, UC Berkeley, SLU, UAH, Nebraska Selected Nov through NASA s first Earth Venture Instrument solicitation Instrument delivery 52 months from Authority to Proceed NASA will arrange hosting on commercial geostationary communications satellite with expected ~2018 launch Provides hourly daylight observations to capture rapidly varying emissions & chemistry important for air quality UV-Visible grating spectrometer to measure key elements in tropospheric ozone and aerosol cycles Exploits extensive measurement heritage from LEO missions Distinguishes boundary layer from free tropospheric & stratospheric ozone Aligned with Earth science Decadal Survey recommendations Subset of the GEO-CAPE atmosphere measurements Responds to the phased implementation recommendation of GEO-CAPE mission design team The North American geostationary component of an international constellation for air quality monitoring

24 Geostationary pollution monitoring Spatial coverage of funded spectrometers TEMPO Sentinel-4 GEMS Courtesy Jhoon Kim, Andreas Richter Policy-relevant science and environmental services enabled by common observations Improved emissions, at common confidence levels, over industrialized Northern Hemisphere Improved air quality forecasts and assimilation systems Improved assessment, e.g., observations to support United Nations Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution

25 Funded tropospheric chemistry mission parameters (as of 11/2012) Europe Sentinel 4 USA TEMPO Korea GEMS Europe Sentinel 5 Precursor TROPOMI Orbit Geostationary Geostationary Geostationary Low-Earth Launch 2019 ~ Status Domain Industry Phase B2 with PDR summer 2012 Europe and surrounding Funding approved 11/2012, Phase-A Funding approved 12/2010, RFP 2012 PDR 1/2012 North America Asia-Pacific Global Resolution 8km x 8km at 40N 8km x 4.5km at 35N 7 km (56 km 2 ) at 38N 7km x 7km nadir Revisit 1 hour 1 hour 1 hour 1 day Payload UV-Vis-NIR , nm UV-Vis nm UV-Vis nm (tbc) UV-Vis-NIR-SWIR , , nm Species O 3, NO 2, SO 2, HCHO, AAI, AOD, heightresolved aerosol O 3 with vertical sensitivity to lowest 2km, NO 2, SO 2, HCHO, CHOCHO, AOD, AAOD, AAI O 3, NO 2, SO 2, HCHO, AOD O 3, NO 2, SO 2, HCHO, AAI, AOD, heightresolved aerosol, CO, CH 4 Notes On sounding platform MTG-S and in formation with imager platform MTG-I. Use MTG-S TIR (expect sensitivity to large O3 and CO events); synergy with imager w.r.t. In orbit with GOES-R series meteo imagers. GEO-CAPE precursor. Includes meteo and ocean color missions with meteo imager in formation. In formation with S-NPP

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27 Significant climate anomalies and events in (Source: NCDC/NOAA) 2012 Event

28 GFCS provide opportunity for documenting new requirements and identify gaps through Rolling Requirements Review process Requirements Requirements Requirements Requirements Derived variables Performances Gap Analysis on observations Statement of Guidance and Implementation Plan for observing capabilities (Actions,Recommend) Space and ground-based instruments Members organizations and programmes Dr. W. Zhang, Climate Space Week 29

29 Service requirements: Content, Presentation, Delivery media, Timeliness, Continuity, User support, Training,.. Processed to translate Services requirements into Observational requirements is a challenging task USERS needs Services USERS satisfaction Product requirements: Type (numerical, graphical, binary, alert), Algorithm, Spatial/temporal resolution, Quality control Observational requirements: Geophysical variable, Unit, Domain, Spatial resolution, Temporal resolution, Uncertainty Specifications: Instrument type, Orbit, Scanning mode, Spectral bands, Channel width, SNR, Observation & Monitoring Instruments Products Datasets Source, Format, Projection, Segmentation, Quality flag, Compression, Metadata

30 Great advances in weather forecasts with great contributions from space community: Continue of success: in the Realm of Climate Services WMO need greater support from and synergy with space community (user engagement!)

31 Natural disasters Löw, P. and A. Wirtz NatCat Service and Risk Management: This Year in Figures, Munich Re Topics Geo 2011, pp World Meteorological Organization

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33 WMO INTEGRATED GLOBAL LOBAL OBSERVING SYSTEM YSTEM (WIGOS) WMO Global Observing Systems Global Observing Systems (WWW/GOS) RBSN, RBCN (>10,000 stations,1,000 upper-air) AMDAR (39754/day) Ship & Marine obs (30417/day) Surface-based remote sensing Meso-scale networks WMO Space Programme Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) World Hydrological Cycle Observing System (WHYCOS) WMO Co-sponsored Observing Systems GCOS, GOOS, GTOS

34 Thank you for your attention If you want go fast, go alone, if you want go far, go together

35 WMO WMOMM Thank you Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) Office For more information on GFCS, kindly contact: Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) Office World Meteorological Organization Tel: Fax:

36 Backup Slides

37 Climate Services will Require an Unprecedented Level of Collaboration WMO 40th Session of CGMS, 5-9 Nov. 2012, Lugano, Swiss

38 Way Forward (from Mark Dowell for CEOS Session) WMO OMM Define, Validate and Obtain Consensus on Overall Approach Short-term (within 2 years) Describe Current and Planned Implementation Arrangements (ECV by ECV) within the Physical Architecture Medium-term (2-4 years) Use the Physical Architecture to Develop a Coordinated Action Plan to Address Identified Gaps/Shortfalls

39 AEROSOLS AND ASIAN POLLUTION AFFECTING THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE - IGAC Optical depth of particles pollution. Much of this pollution is industrial but some is caused by fires. NASA image. Reduction in surface solar radiation absorption due to the Indo-Asian haze effects (measured January to April from ) (Ramanathan et al. 2001a) Steffen at al., 2004

40 NO 2 Global Picture (here from OMI) Tropospheric Column NO 2 (Sector Method) July 2005 Cloud screening: cloud fraction 20%

41 From Space based GOS/WWW to Space based WIGOS Obs. Requirements under WIGOS Framework Inclusion requirements of Weather, DRR Climate (GFCS, GAW..), Water (WHYCOS,..) Environment (GAW, Health) Co sponsored observing systems Space based WIGOS From weather satelites to WIGOS satellites CGMS new baseline with greatly enhanced global satellite constellations to meet WWW, GFCS, GAW, WHYCOS,GCW etc.. Operational requirements. Challenges to enhance greatly space and ground capabilities

42 Integrated Observations: Example Challenge Purposeful reduction of structural and statistical monitoring errors for climate change From the 2009 State of the Climate Report Ten Indicators of a Warming World Seven of these observed indicators would be expected to increase in a warming world, and observations show that they are, in fact, increasing. Three would be expected to decrease, and they are, in fact, decreasing.

43 Information on precipitation anomalies, overlaid with 2010 reported cholera cases from the countries where access to water and sanitation remains poor, indicate priority areas for further research and health intervention

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45 Strong Synergy of in situ & space is the real future!

46 Billions of USD per decade Geological Hydrometeorological While economic losses are on the way up! Millions of casualties per decade Geological decade Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Hydrometeorological decade Loss of life from hydrometeorological disasters are decreasing! World Meteorological Organization

47 The contribution of WMO to the WMO OMM Development of GFCS WMO with its Members, bodies and co-sponsored programmes will provide only a component needed to build the framework GFCS is a global collective effort being built in collaboration with UN family, partners and stakeholders (CGMS, CEOS & GEO) The Space Architecture is a key component of GFCS. WIS