Teaching Ecological Economics: Climate, Energy, Water

Transcription

1 Teaching Ecological Economics: Climate, Energy, Water International Society for Ecological Economics Washington, D.C. June 29, 2016 Jonathan M. Harris and Anne-Marie Codur Copyright 2015 Jonathan M. Harris

2

3 Figure 18.1 Carbon Emissions from Fossil Fuel Consumption, Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), accessed November 2013.

4 Metric Tons of CO2 Per Capita Figure 18.3: Per-Capita Emissions of Carbon by Country United States Germany Japan France China Mexico Brazil India Bangladesh 0.37 Source: U.S. Department of Energy, International Energy Annual 2008.

5 Carbon Emissions (Billion Tons Carbon) ppm 450 ppm Year Figure Carbon Stabilization Scenarios (450 and 550 ppm CO 2 ) Source: Adapted from Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis,

6 Figure 3: Business as Usual, Paris Pledges, and 2 C Path Source:

7 Can Renewable Energy Provide a Solution to Climate Change? Long-term link between economic growth and carbon emissions Need to decouple economic activity from carbon emissions Micro issues: Market pricing and policy actions determine speed of transition Macro issues: An end to growth, or a new kind of energy economy? Or both?

8 Global Energy Consumption by Source, 2012 Biomass 10.0% Hydropower 2.3% Wind, solar, geothermal 1.0% Nuclear 5.1% Oil 31.5% Natural Gas 21.3% Coal 28.8% Source: International Energy Agency (IEA 2013)

9 Availability of Global Renewable Energy Energy Source Total Global Availability (trillion watts) Availability in Likely- Developable Locations (trillion watts) Wind Wave > Geothermal Hydroelectric Tidal Solar photovoltaic Concentrated solar power Total global energy use in 2006: 15.8 Trillion Watts Source: Jacobson and Delucchi (2011); U.S. Energy Information Administration; Stanford Engineering News,

10 Infrastructure Requirements for Supplying All Global Energy in 2030 from Renewable Sources Energy Source Source: Jacobson and Delucchi (2011). Percent of 2030 Global Power Supply Number of Plants/Devices Needed Worldwide Wind turbines 50 3,800,000 Wave power plants 1 720,000 Geothermal plants 4 5,350 Hydroelectric plants Tidal turbines 1 490,000 Rooftop solar PV systems billion Solar PV power plants 14 40,000 Concentrated solar power 20 49,000 plants TOTAL 100 Land requirement: about 2% of total global land area. (Can be combined with agricultural uses)

11 Global Potential for Energy Efficiency Source: Blok et al. (2008) Global status report on energy efficiency Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnerships.

12 Projected 2035 Global Energy Demand, by Source Hydropower 3% Business As Usual Scenario Total Demand: 18,048 Mtoe Non-Hydro Renewables 12% Aggressive Climate Change Scenario Policy Total Demand: 14,920 Mtoe Nuclear 6% Oil 28% Hydropower 3% Non-Hydro Renewables 23% Oil 26% Natural Gas 22% Coal 29% Nuclear 11% Natural Gas 20% Coal 17% Source: International Energy Agency, 2011.

13 Growth of Solar PV and Wind Installations ( ) Source: Worldwatch Institute (2014).

14 Levelized Cost of Electricity for New Generation Solar PV, utility scale Solar thermal electricity Wind-onshore Wind-offshore Hydroelectric Gas combined cycle Coal Nuclear $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $/MWh EIA Lazard Sources:

15 Externality Cost of Various Electricity Generating Methods, European Union Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear Biomass Hydropower Photovoltaics Wind Eurocents per kilowatt-hour Source: Owen, A. D "Renewable energy: externality costs as market barriers." Energy Policy 34:

16 Solar Energy Price Decreases, Source: Barbose, G., S. Weaver and N. Darghouth Tracking the Sun VII: an historical summary of the installed price of photovoltaics in the United States from 1998 to SunShot Initiative, U.S. Department of Energy

17 Projected further decreases in solar costs, Source: Feldman et al Photovoltaic System Pricing Trends: historical, recent, and near-term projections. U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative:

18 Source: Solar Energy Industries Association, Solar Energy Facts: 2014 Year in Review.

19 Energy Intensity- Btu per Year 2005 U.S. Dollars (1991 base year) Declining Energy Intensity in Industrial Economies, Canada United States Germany United Kingdom France Italy Japan Year Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2011.

20 Source: EIA Source: EIA 2012.

21 Business as Usual Scenario ~1% p.a. growth in energy demand 120 units total 100 units total Renewables 10 units Renewables 20 units 90 units carbon-based 100 units carbon-based Copyright 2015 Jonathan M. Harris

22 Services, Efficiency, & Renewables Scenario units total ~1% p.a. decline in energy demand 90 units carbon-based 10 units Renewables 20 units 80 units total 60 units carbon-based Based on modest investment in services, efficiency, renewables, with no loss in employment (probably a gain) Copyright 2015 Jonathan M. Har

23 Source: US Department of Energy, 2013 Accessed at: Decline since 2007: 12%

24 US CO 2 Emissions, Source: US Department of Energy, 2016 Accessed at:

25 PERCENT CHANGES IN EMISSIONS DRIVERS, 2012 CARBON INTENSITY ENERGY INTENSITY PER CAPITA OUTPUT POPULATION percent change Although 2012 was unusual, it shows the pattern of declining emissions: growth in population and per capita output were outweighed by decreases in energy intensity (energy use per dollar of GDP) and carbon intensity (carbon emissions per unit of energy use). Reduction in population growth rates and in GDP growth rates could accentuate this trend, and will be necessary to meet carbon targets, but there is a lot of scope for energy and carbon intensity reduction.

26 A good trend, but needs continuing. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook ARRA2009 denotes the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.

27 Millions of 2014 Dollars Public Energy R&D Investment France Germany Japan United Kingdom United States Source: International Energy Agency, 2014.

28 Policies for the Renewable Energy Transition Subsidy reform: eliminate fossil fuel subsidies Pigovian tax on externalities including carbon Energy research and development Feed-in tariffs Subsidies, including favorable tax provisions and loan terms Renewable energy targets Efficiency standards and labelling Financing mechanisms with zero up-front costs

29

30 Carbon in Soils, Grasslands, Forests, and Wetlands Carbon release from soil degradation and deforestation is major atmospheric carbon source. Preventing releases from agricultural soils, wetlands, and grasslands would lessen human-re;eased carbon by around 20%. Preventing further deforestation would reduce emissions by another 10%. Enhancing uptake by forests, grasslands, and soils would be equivalent to reducing net emissions by an additional 30% or more.

31

32 The composition of the planet s water

33 The Hydrologic Cycle

34 Global Freshwater Availability Cubic meters per person per year Water scarce Water stressed Data not available

35 Water Availability per region (2012) Region Average water availability (cubic meters/person) Middle East and North Africa 500 Sub-Saharan Africa 1,000 Caribbean 2,466 Asia/Pacific 2,970 Europe 4,741 Latin America 7,200 North America (including Mexico) 13,401

36

37 Agriculture share of water consumed selected countries Countries % of water consumed that is used for irrigation Vietnam 95% India 90% Egypt 86% Mexico 77% China 65% Brazil 60% United States 40% France 12% Sweden 4% Germany 0.3%

38 Calculating water footprint: Step 1: decomposing water in 3 types

39 Calculating water footprint: Step 2: adding all the water (green, blue, grey) necessary throughout the process of production of all goods and services Product Virtual-water content (liters) 1 sheet of paper (80 g/m2) 10 1 tomato (70 g) 13 1 slice of bread (30 g) 40 1 orange (100 g) 50 1 apple (100 g) 70 1 glass of beer (250 ml) 75 1 glass of wine (125 ml) egg (40 g) glass of orange juice (200 ml) bag of potato crisps (200 g) glass of milk (200 ml) hamburger (150 g) 2,400 1 cotton T-shirt 2,700 1 pair of shoes (bovine leather) 8,000

40 Virtual water used in six types of fuels, for a round trip New York City- Washington D.C. Type of fuel Natural Gas (conventional) Unconventional natural gas (shale) Oil (conventional) Oil tar sands (mining) Biofuel type 1 (irrigated corn) Biofuel type 2 (irrigated soy) Amount of water needed in the extraction/production of 2 Million BTUs of energy 5 gallons 33 gallons 32 gallons 616 gallons 35,616 gallons 100,591 gallons

41 Calculate your own water footprint: The average person living in the US consumes about 2220 gallons of water a day - That s 8,500 liters or 25 bathtubs each day Diet makes a huge difference: Meat eater = 30 bathtubs Vegetarian = 15 bathtubs Vegan = 12 bathtubs

42 National Water Footprint for selected countries, in cubic meters per person per year Agricultural goods Industrial goods Domestic water consumption 500 0

43 Transfers of virtual water through trade Virtual-water balance per country (billion cubic meters)

44 Trade of virtual water : cotton

45 Regulation by the market: internalizing negative externalities Price Marginal Social Cost (MSC) P* A B C Supply (MC) P E P S Demand Q* Q E Q S Quantity of Water Subsidies to irrigation lead to a consumption of Quantity Qs of water Qe would be the market equilibrium without subsidies Q* would be the ecologically optimal quantity withdrawn

46 Price per Unit Price per Unit Price per Unit Pricing Structures Uniform Rate Structure Quantity of Water Used Increasing Block Rate Structure Quantity of Water Used Decreasing Block Rate Structure Quantity of Water Used

47 City A few American Cities applying the increasing bloc rate structure Cities with the greatest differences in water rates Santa Fe, N.M. Austin, Tex. Charlotte, N.C. San Diego 50 gallons per person per day San Francisco Atlanta $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 Average monthly water bill

48 Re-creating collective systems of management of the commons? The acequias of New Mexico are communal irrigation canals, a way to share water for agriculture in a dry land. Tiwa Indians irrigated farmland in the area as long as years ago. Communities have relied on institutions resembling neither the state nor the market to govern some resource systems with reasonable degrees of success over long periods of time Elinor Ostrom, in Governing the Commons (1990)