Tomorrow s Railway and Climate Change

Transcription

1 Tomorrow s Railway and Climate Change John Dora CEng FICE FRMetS FPWI Northern Hub and Beyond - PWI Technical Seminar, March 2017 Images and material by kind permission from the IPCC, Met Office, Network Rail, John Dora Consulting and RSSB Do you remember Adlestrop?

2 Introduction What is climate, weather and climate change? Why is adaptation important? How is this relevant to the railway system? What are the opportunities for the Northern Hub? What makes for a resilient railway?

3 Climate change Weather Climate

4 Climate change and adaptation IPCC (2014) calls for society to adapt to the future climate COP21 agreements commit society to adaptation effort Railway systems are not immune to the impacts of climate change Inertia in the atmosphere and oceans means rising temperatures will continue past 2050 RSSB and Network Rail have been examining the impacts of climate change on Britain s railway since 2003

5 Weather and climate drivers Google these: Met Office Hadley Centre UK Climate Impacts Programme Resources: refer to RSSB/ UIC SPARK and its climate change pages View all research papers View SPARK Climate Change Web Page

6 Why is it relevant generally? Think about Asset Life Cycles Think about what the railway is for... Think about Resilience, Efficiency, Sustainability,...other changes Demographic etc etc Think about what railway infrastructure eg drainage systems do.. what does drainage serve?

7 How is it relevant to the railway system? Railways in GB mostly built by 1850 a coal, iron moving system what, who said no Standards?! They cut through the landscape, making them exposed to: Extreme rainfall High groundwater levels Flood and landslip AND The railway system is today much more sensitive to weather than say, 50 years ago. Consider: Signalling and switch control systems Telegraph wires Trains wheel diameters think about Underslung power? Whitemetal v roller bearings? Electronics on trains?

8 Things to remember Water is the Civil Engineer s greatest enemy Thomas Telford (..is nothing new?) Water goes downhill John Dora

9 What are we as an industry doing? T A (mostly) RSSB funded research study sponsored by the Technical Strategy Leadership Group. It explored the need to increase the resilience of the GB railway in response to anticipated changes in key climate variables.

10 T1009 in two phases Phase 1 (completed June 2015) Comprehensive knowledge review and knowledge gap analysis with critique on industry standards for weather risk management. Phase 2 (completed June 2016) Knowledge of climate change vulnerabilities; develop ideas for support tools to increase resilience of the GB railway.

11 T1009 Examples of climate change The UK Climate Change Projections 2009 anticipates that, by 2080 under the medium emission scenarios, the UK climate will change as follows: Mean daily maximum temperatures (2080s relative to , medium emissions) are projected to increase across the UK. Increases in the summer average are up to 5.4ºC (2.2 to 9.5ºC) in parts of southern England Sea level rise of between 12 and 76cm by 2095 (compared with a baseline) Changes in storm surge in the Bristol Channel and Severn Estuary (increase in 50-year surge return level of around 0.8mm per yearr) Increase in the number of lightning days are projected for all four seasons across the whole of the UK Variations of summer and winter precipitations of between -40% and +33% respectively

12 Climate change impacts of interest Nature of climate change High temperatures Low temperatures High precipitation events High sea levels and storm surge High winds Possible impacts Rail buckling, excessive overhead line sag, passenger/worker discomfort Damage, disruption, slips, trips and falls, reduced brake effectiveness from snow and ice falls Earthworks failure and landslides, slips, trips and falls, bridge scour, floods Coastal erosion, damage to sea walls, earthwork failure) Damage to equipment and lineside fires Heat related non-work days for mitigating track buckle likelihood 2040s

13 Practical tools identified Cross referred: e.g. NR Drainage Manual Resources in SPARK (qv)....these include.. T1009 Reports and appendices Case studies and new concepts

14 T1009 Appendices - extracts

15 Concept dealing with uncertainty Example climate change Use projections (UKCP09) Understand certainty eg Heat up to 2050s OK, but Wind not! Understand also limitations on Data v Asset behaviour, granularity etc etc Modify resilience standards for new infrastructure easy if <35 year life cycle Beyond this, adopt scenarios TE2100 example... on next slide Challenge the Economists! It s not just about the! Weather Climate

16 Concept - Scenario-led approach: TE2100 Thames Barrier and associated tidal defences Designed with (limited) sea level rise in mind...but not frequent storm surges!

17 Concept: Economics Include socio-economic benefits when appraising rail schemes Case Study Cowley Bridge Junction Issue Network Network Arup Arup Rail Study method method Option 3.2 Capital Costs Rail Study The costs of doing nothing vs doing something Option 3.1 Option 3.2 Option 3.1 Knock-on effects and interdependencies: the wider context of rail disruptions Guidance for measuring the potential benefits of climate change adaptation projects The concept of Journey Availability metric Present Value of Costs Schedule 8 costs prevented Schedule 4 costs prevented Maintenance and other costs User time savings Not quantified Wider economic benefits severance Not quantified Wider economic benefits reputation Not quantified Present Value of Benefits Net Present Value (NPV) Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) Payback Period (years)

18 Concept: Resilience measures Can be hard Passive, like engineered defences By design avoidance, redundancy (in system alternative routes), resistance Investment, in maintenance activity (?) Invest in research but think line of sight Can be soft Technological, like forecasting systems Understanding and communication, of critical infrastructure (service standards?)..or parts that are more at risk than others Investment in training, knowledge, organisational capacity Good practice means Exercises

19 So: what makes a resilient railway? Look at the future situation Climate change Population Demographics etc Tools and Instruments Legislation, Policy Techno: GIS, BIM Research Innovation Think System Interconnections Interdependencies Supply chain Capacity Investment rules Understand the existing situation Data, Knowledge Stresses, Impacts Resilient System Organisational issues Governance Capacity to understand and act Procurement do they really help?

20 Opportunities Growth + Development = Opportunity qv: World COP 22 Marrakech: two thirds of the infrastructure needed by 2050 has yet to be built NORTHERN HUB IS PART OF THIS! Given leadership, we can build a more resilient society We have the tools to work with the Environment rather than against it: Adopt blue/ green infrastructure Build in better resilience as infrastructure is replaced = a no/ low cost strategy Tap into Engineers skills given the problem, you ll solve it! Technical standards are VERY useful and YOU can set these! PLEASE! be more critical of Economic assessments!

21 Tips From the best infrastructure operators Language is important eg think Corporate Risk Register and (current) Resilience eg: what about corporate reputation v failure? Risk assessments baseline NOW, and look at the future Embed knowledge in the organisation NOT an individual!..but a Champion (with clout) to lead resilience planning is recommended Resilience planning is NOT emergency response planning! Influence resilience eg: forward thinking Policy and Standards eg: set policy rules that cover siting of critical infrastructure Challenge traditional economics! Align metrics with system purpose, and make sure they work from the bottom to the top

22 Impacts and potential resilience measures Extreme High Flooding Scour of Bridge Piers Improve drainage Landslips Improve scour protection Vegetation management Protect vulnerable slopes Rebuild embankments Institute warning systems Rapid Changes Extreme High Maintain tracks to more resistant Lineside specifications electronic Rail buckling Clutter-free design for equipment underside of affecting vehicles power, Passenger Discomfort De-icing measures used signalling, prior to entry telecomms into service Rock removal activity on a cyclic basis & Netting of rock cuttings Extreme Winds Catenary failure Tree Fall Temperature Precipitation Weather Events Sea Level Rise Factor in resilience Coastal measures Flooding for routine renewal Lightning programme Design future eg: Dawlish defences BUT works DON T with sea level Interference rise in mind with electronics FORGET WALES etc!! EMC Extreme Low Ice build-on rolling stock Freeze thaw at cuttings Extreme Drought Dessication of clay formations Vegetation management Adapt Rolling Stock Catenary maintenance Robust control systems Redundant power systems Increased Humidity Leaf contamination Loss of braking mu Loss of track circuits

23 THANK YOU