Water Challenge for 21 st Century: at a Crossroads??

Transcription

1 Water Challenge for 21 st Century: at a Crossroads?? Prof. Dr. Pavel Kabat kabat@iiasa.ac.at Director General and Chief Executive Officer International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria Professor of Earth System Science Wageningen University, the Netherlands

2 One Blue Planet.. Oceans 97.5% In 21 st C: Is past guide to future Stationarity? Can water information remain Secret? Is fresh water Sovereign? Is water fixed asset, or flux? glaciers, snow & permafrost 1.72% ground water 0.75% USG lakes, swamps & rivers 0.1%

3 Most Important Focus of World Leaders

4 Water Crisis? there is some urgency to deal with the problems However not all noses are in the same direction yet And perceptions of risks and urgency may differ

5 Water Use in km^3 per year Worldwide Water Use by Sector Agriculture Indus try Hous eholds Res ervoires Total

6 Worldwide Water Use by Region Europe North Am erica Africa Asia South Am erica Australia& Pacific

7 The current situation 1.4 billion people in watersheds with < 1000m 3 /capita/year 2.4 billion people with poor sanitation 1 billion people without access to safe drinking water

8 Population still growing, adding 2 billion more by 2050 Food production requirements potentially 70% greater by % of the world s population has no access to electricity Industrial and energy water uses exceed agriculture in high-income countries. Ecosystems? Water: Global Challenges Increasing and Competing Demands Reservoirs Municipal Use Industrial Use Agricultural Use

9 Destructive Flood India/Bangladesh: 2007 monsoon 75m Pakistan: m; 2011/12 Brisbane/Australia, Thailand: 2011 Drought Horn of Africa Syria Russia 2010 Abstract: investigate.irrigating crops in arid environments with CO 2 rather than water Water Security: local risks.. Productive WSS: 800m without improved water, 2.6bn without sanitation; future cities? Food: 1bn malnutrition 30m child deaths/yr Power: renewable HEP unexploited

10 Water Security: international waters risks.. growing pressures China: 17 neighbours, 110 rivers & lakes Africa 2050: 2.5bn people, 60 international basins, increasing complexity limited knowledge, capacity, uncertainty misperception, tension, fear Eg GBM, Mekong, Nile, Euphrates Northern science adequacy? GCMs economic models 印度 在全球个大洲中, 亚洲国际河流分布最为集中, 其国际河流面积占了亚洲陆地面积的 65% 塔里木 雅怒藏布河河江 - 布拉马普 特拉河 珠 江 黑 绥芬龙图鸭河江们绿江

11 Bangladesh Google Earth

12 GBM BASINS The GBM Basins drain 1.72 Mi km2 area 93% of the area outside Bangladesh 75-80% of flow in 5 months of monsoon Brahmaputra Ganges Meghna

13 Impact of SLR on Salinity Intrusion Movement of 5 ppt Salinity line Khulna Mongla 90 km 9 km Hiron Point 0 SLR 32 cm SLR 88 cm SLR Source: IWM

14 Water Security: global spillover risks Local water shocks global risks to business & economies eg Thai floods: $45bn Local water shocks global political risks eg Syria drought, Russia drought, Pakistan flood Transboundary waters international political risks South Asia rivers, SARCC trade Mekong, China Tigris-Euphrates

15 Water security in changing climates.. but crisis now for 3 billion people adaptation now is key to future mitigation mostly about energy; adaptation mostly about water

16 3. Water Security: big policy questions & science challenges Closing divided world gap? leapfrogs, game-changers Chasing water security in changing climates? Innovation 3 INs : Information (GPG) Institutions Infrastructure Resolving 21 st C $trillion challenges? ensuring water services, food & energy for 9-11bn (7-8bn in cities) managing (increasing) water-related shocks & spillovers Sustaining our one Blue Planet? Conserving <1% liquid & fresh (0.1% surface, liquid, fresh) Understanding/managing risks of 4 o future on water flux??

17 Over-reliance on groundwater: Total groundwater withdrawal (all sectors) in % of total (surface and ground) water withdrawals fg_tot = 35% Global total groundwater withdrawal: 1522 km 3 /yr from total 4331 km 3 /yr

18 Is the hydrological cycle changing?

19 What should be changing? Precipitation? Evaporation? Runoff? Storage?

20 Land precipitation is changing significantly over broad areas Increases Decreases Smoothed annual anomalies for precipitation (%) over land from 1900 to 2005; other regions are dominated by variability.

21 What should be changing? Precipitation? Evaporation? Runoff? Storage?

22 World Cities exceeding 5 million residents 1950 Analysis by Munich Re Data:

23 World Cities exceeding 5 million residents 2015 Analysis by Munich Re Data: U.N. Population Division

24 Runoff Precipitation urbanized area Discharge rural area Time

25 Vulnerability projections

26 What should be changing? Precipitation? Evaporation? Runoff? Storage?

27 Global Reservoir Database Location (lat./lon.), Storage capacity, Area of water surface, Purpose of dam, Year of construction, 13,382dams, Visual courtesy of Kuni Takeuchi

28 How to make a real progress in addressing water as one of the most pressing issues of our sustainable future?

29 Trans-sectoral and multidisciplinary systems thinking in water.. nexus approach systems approach

30 IPCC 4AR WG II ALL WATER RELATED (WATER DEPENDENT) SECTORS

31 Water - Energy Environment Health Nexus In the U.S. and Europe, 91% and 78% electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric (nuclear and fossil fueled) power plants, which require water resources for cooling. We found a summer average decrease in capacity of power plants with % in Europe and % in the Southeastern U.S. depending on cooling system type and climate scenario for V.d. Vliet, Kabat et al, 2012, Nature Climate Change

32 Projected future changes in river discharge Future period relative to control period Introduction Modeling approach Results Conclusions

33 Water temperature ( C) Future changes in discharge and water temperatures Columbia (Anatone) Rhine (Koblenz) Mekong (Chiang Saen) 25 C WHO and water quality standard 21 C - salmon tolerance temperature 23 C cooling water limit Introduction Modeling approach Results Conclusions

34 Water Climate Poverty Equity Nexus 160% Kenya: extreme rainfall variability around mean 140% 120% 100% 80% 60%

35 Real GDP growth (%) Variability in Rainfall (Meter) rainfall affects growth. the case of Zimbabwe Real GDP grow th (%) Variability in Rainfall (Meter) Years Correlation between GDP and Rainfall in Zimbabwe

36 Ethiopia South Africa Thailand Laos China Brazil Australia North America Water Climate - Poverty Equity - Nexus Infrastructure gap in water storage Water storage per person (m3) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,729 6,150 4,000 3,000 2,486 3,255 2,000 1, ,287 1,406

37 Country Additional Storage needed per person (m 3 ) The cost of water security Storage investments required per person (US$) Storage Investments Required (US$ Billion) Period needed at 5% current GDP investment per year (no pop. inc.) (Years) Lesotho Namibia Nigeria Ethiopia Kenya Tanzania Uganda Burkina Faso Senegal Algeria Morocco

38 Water: Management Challenges Water management must intensify. Managing the water sector alone is no longer enough Water integrates across scales and sectors, which all use and influence increasingly scarce water resources. Water management is risk based, but how does risk change? Large uncertainties Data Scenarios Models No stationarity More robust, flexible solutions required

39

40 Frequency Acceptable risk Adaptation (with investments) Acceptable risk x 1 Extremen Drought risk Adaptation (autonomous) Extremen Flood risk Climate parameter (e.g. rainfall)

41 Frequency Climate Change Acceptable risk Adapation (with investments) x 2 x 1 Adaptation (autonomous) P 2 P 1 Climate parameter (e.g.rainfall)

42 Water Futures & Solutions WFaS Supporting Innovative Solutions through Integrative Water Futures Analysis 2013 start-up with IIASA venture capital 1 st phase: existing tools & datasets fast-track results

43 4. WFaS Research Question What water-related policies & practices can be implemented now that will be robust at improving human well-being through water security across a wide range of possible futures & associated uncertainties?

44 WFaS Coalition Building Three major coalitions Organized into the following groups Governing Board Science Coalition Sponsor Coalition Stakeholder Coalition Scenario Focus Group Project Team Sector Actors Group WaterFutures4 the World External experts Project Director Secretariat Initiative includes a major stakeholder consultation component, to inform and guide the science but also to test and refine policy and business outcomes;

45 Science Coalition WFaS Coalition Building Three major coalitions Sponsor Coalition Stakeholder Coalition Sample of Institutions Involved Institute Country CEH CESR/Kassel CUNY CSIRO IFPRI JRC MIT NIES NIH/IRMA/CWRDM NVE Oxford PBL PIK Utrecht Univ. Wageningen WRC UK Germany USA Australia USA Italy USA Japan India Norway UK Netherlands Germany Netherlands Netherlands South Africa

46 ensuring consistency & usefulness of outputs Science Coalition WFaS Coalition Building Three major coalitions Sponsor Coalition Stakeholder Coalition Sample of SFG member institutions Institute Country Bibliotheca Alexandrina Climate Grp Greater China Conagua CSIRO Federal Secretary Gen. Council of Ag. Dev. ICID Irrigation Dept. IUCN IWA LIGHT Nat l Planning Comm. OSTP Planning Commission UNESCO Egypt China Mexico Australia Pakistan Morocco China Sri Lanka Pakistan Brazil South Africa USA India

47 VISION.. If one does not know to which port one is sailing, no wind is favorable Seneca (c. 4 BC-AD 65) Photo: David McGrath

48 Water challenge: not a threat but opportunities. (innovation, business, economy, social innovations)

49 Thank you and welcome soon at IIASA...!