Dr. Bart Chadwick SPAWAR Systems Center Pacific Presentation to the Society of American Military Engineers June 19, 2014

Transcription

1 Dr. Bart Chadwick SPAWAR Systems Center Pacific Presentation to the Society of American Military Engineers June 19, 2014

2 Displacement of World Fleet ~ 2.15 billion tons Surface Area of the Worlds Oceans ~ 361 million km 2 From: What if? Reduction in Sea Level ~ 6 microns At SLR ~ 3 mm/year persists for about 17 hours From: TIME IN HOURS

3 How can we translate global climate change science into actionable information for installation managers? Develop a rigorous framework for vulnerability assessment Translate global scenarios into regional and local scenarios Provide the models and tools to evaluate the range of impacts for these scenarios Prioritize our responses based on a fundamental understanding of the system response

4 DoD Strategic Environmental Research and Development project Develop methods for assessment of sea level rise impact on coastal DoD infrastructure Improved methods to support regional assessment of vulnerability Beyond the bathtub Region-specific SLR scenarios Focus on SW region Evaluate through application Naval Base Coronado Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton 3 4

5 5 Dr. Bart Chadwick, PI - SPAWAR Systems Center Pacific Technical coordination, vulnerability framework, GIS & modeling, risk assessment, liaison to installations Dr. Reinhard Flick - TerraCosta Consulting Group (SIO) Sea level forcing, shoreline response & coastal protection systems Dr. John Helly UCSD: San Diego Supercomputer Center Quantitative geospatial analysis, data management and integration Dr. Walter Oechel SDSU: Global Change Research Group Regional climate change scenarios, terrestrial system response Dr. Tracy Nishikawa US Geological Survey Groundwater system response Mr. Isaac Canner Moffatt & Nichol Blaylock Damage assessment methodologies

6 Vulnerability Assessment Framework Future Sea Level Scenarios Integrated Terrain and Installation Model Assessment of Exposure Pathways Assessment of Vulnerabilities Key Findings for MCBCP Gaps and Recommendations 6

7 Vulnerability assessment is an iterative process 7

8 8 Sources/Stressors Pathways Receptors Local Mean Sea Level Subsidence & Uplift Inundation Buildings Atmos/Ocean Processes (NTR) Flooding Civil Infrastructure Storm Surge (NTR) Erosion Waterfront structures Precipitation Intrusion Coastal structures Tides Water Level Training & testing lands Waves

9 Total Water Level = Tide + Non-Tide + Wave Runup + SLR 9

10 Prescribed scenarios, historical trends, & modeled projections Develop regional scenarios for the range of coastal regimes Probability analysis for a range of return period events Sea Level Source Components Sea Level Scenarios for 2100 Local Historical Trend ACoE Quadratic Model Local Mean Sea Level Curves Empirical Regional Adjustment Local Non-Tide Residuals IPCC Future Climate Scenarios Global Climate Models Harmonic Tide Model Predictions Local Tides Wave Watch III Model CDIP & Xbeach Models Local Waves & Runup Downscaling BCCA Model Local Precipitation Total WL Groundwater Protected Bays and Estuaries 11 Exposed Shorelines 10

11 Meters (NAVD88) >2100 > > > SERDP 2.0 NRC III NRC II NRC I MSL curves from ACOE model Linear trend + acceleration Start at 2000 centered epoch Consistent with NRC and recent NCA Utilize first occurrence concept MSL = m From Vermeer and Rahmstorf Scenario 2100 Sea Level (m) a b Designation NAVD88 MSLR from 2000 (m/yr) (m 2 /yr) NRC I x x 10-5 NRC II x x 10-5 NRC III x x 10-4 SERDP x x

12 Combine prescribed future MSL scenarios with SL variability Construct time series Include range of exposures Protected Bay Groundwater Exposed Beach 12

13 13 Define the scenario matrix for the vulnerability assessment Combine prescribed MSL conditions with the return period events Illustrates the progression of rare events toward common events m (NAVD88)

14 14 Accounts for differences in wave exposure and runup Camp Pendleton

15 Coastal System Data Installation Data Compile & Integrate Terrain Data Coastal LiDAR Upland LiDAR Offshore Bathymetry Compile & Categorize GIS Layers Training /Testing Lands Waterfront Structures Coastal Structures Buildings Civil Infrastructure Personnel Construct & Insert Beach Surface Beach Profiles Interpolated Beach Surface Receptor Characteristics Component elevations Value metrics Baseline Condition Digital Terrain Model Baseline Condition Installation Infrastructure Model Integrated Terrain and Installation Model 15

16 Compile elevation data from multiple sources Coastal LiDAR Ocean Bathymetry Survey Profiles Standardize to vertical datum (NAVD88) Calibrate to previously verified coastal LiDAR Resulting model of elevation at 2m horizontal ~0.1 meter vertical resolution 16

17 17 NBC MCBCP Installation Terrain Model Elevations Percentiles 5th 25th 50th 75th 95th NBC MCBCP

18 18 Training and Testing Lands - Encompass the coastal land areas that support training and testing missions. Buildings - Includes a range of buildings that support operations and missions of the installation. Waterfront Structures - Includes a range of structures that support waterfront operations and missions of the installation. Coastal Structures - Includes a range of coastal structures whose primary purpose is to protect the shoreline and thus sustain operations and missions of the installation. Civil Infrastructure - Describes a broad category of built infrastructure that is critical to the day-to-day operations and mission of the installation.

19 19 Red Beach Training Area Beach Training Area Blue White Red Green SO Total Average Width (m) NA 115 Area (m 2 )

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22 22 Future Water Level Scenarios Groundwater Groundwater Transport Model (SUTRA) Water level, flow & salinity Vulnerability to water level & salt intrusion Protected Bays Hydrodynamic Model (CH3D) Water level, flow & sheer stress Vulnerability to inundation, flooding, water level & currents Long - Term Shore Response Models ( Bruun / Emp ) Equilibrium beach & cliff profiles Exposed Shorelines Modify Terrain Model Short - Term Shore Response Models ( XBeach / Emp ) Episodic erosion & runup events Vulnerability to inundation, flooding and erosion

23 23 Conditionally Decoupled Profile Model (CDPM) Utilizes full cliff/beach profile Cliff erosion decoupled from beach (subaerial only) until active beach profile intersects with cliff

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25 25 Couple YGOR results with the CSPEM (NBC) and CDPM (MCBCP) models Long-term predictions that incorporate shortterm variability Enables estimates of shoreline position that integrate SLR, sand budget imbalance and wave-driven variations Forecast short-term wave driven beach change, and wave plus MSLR-driven beach retreat

26 26 Red Beach is key amphibious training area for MCBCP Beaches already relatively narrow Cliff erosion accelerates as beach narrows Training areas narrow but can retreat with cliff SLR = m Present day cliff top Retreated cliff top

27 Underlying elevation model updated to reflect long-term shoreline response to SLR Apply spatially varying total water levels Evaluate hydraulic connectivity using sliding window of grouped MOP station segments 27

28 28 High frequency events (e.g. weekly) interpreted as inundation Low frequency events interpreted as flooding Exposure for some infrastructure in Del Mar area Implications for SML Zones reflect areas that are vulnerable but doesn t account for many factors SLR = 1.0 m SLR = 2.0 m SLR = 0.0 m

29 29 High frequency events (e.g. weekly) interpreted as inundation Low frequency events interpreted as flooding North Island Air Station broad range of critical infrastructure Zones reflect areas that are vulnerable but doesn t account for many factors SLR = m

30 Late century 2.0 m SLR intrusion comparable to 10-30% change in pumping capacity Baseline SLR = 0.5 m SLR = 2.0 m SLR = 2.0 m 35K5 Sutra model used to simulate GW intrusion at MCBCP 09J1 10B1 2N4 Response regulated by late acceleration of SL and dampening in aquifer 30

31 Broad scale installation-level categorical assessment for key receptor classes Focused component-level assessment for high-value or high mission critical elements Installation & Exposure Specific Source Scenarios Installation MCBCP NBC Exposure Exposed/Protected Shorelines Groundwater Total Water Level Mean Sea Level Scenarios Return Period Event Pathway Specific Physical Response Pathway Erosion Intrusion Inundation Flooding Water Level Pathway Response Models Exposed/Protected Shorelines Groundwater Future Condition Shorelines Currents Water levels Installation Sensitivity & Response Functions Terrain & Installation Model Categorized Receptors w/ Elevations Depth-Damage Functions Built infrastructure Training lands Impact/Cost Functions Unified Facilities Criteria ($) Training and testing (days) Vulnerability Assessment Products Installation Response Curves Sea Level Vulnerability Matrix Scenario Visualizations 31

32 Beach Training Area Receptor Category Beach width and beach area are key metrics Sustainability linked to sand supply MCM Beaching Action. Mine Countermeasure Beaching Actions ~42 times/year From: Commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet and Naval Base Coronado,

33 Sources/Stressors Pathways Receptors Vulnerability Metrics Local Mean Sea Level Inundation Beach Nourishment at MCBCP Non-Tide Residuals Beach Width Remaining Flooding Beach Training Areas Tides Replacement Cost Erosion Waves MCBCP Training Area Erosion MCBCP Training Area Inundation & Flooding Inundation Flooding 33

34 34 Buildings Inundation/Flood Roadway Inundation/Flood Storm Inlets Inundation/Flood Rec Areas Inundation/Flood

35 SLR = 2.0 m SLR = 1.5 m SLR = 1.0 m SLR = 0.5 m SLR = 0.0 m Long-Term Scenario 2100 Long 2087 & Short 2069 Term 2046 Sea 2000 First Occurance Short-Term Condition Remaining Width (m) Receptor Civil Training Buildings Receptors Roads Airfield Storm Drains Metric Metric Metric Remaining Area (%) Replacement Value ($M) Number of Buildings Building Area (m 2 ) Replacement Value ($M) Building MDI > 55 Week % $ $ $ 0 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ 0.0 Month % $ $ $ 0 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ 0.0 Year 83 67% $ $ $ 0 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ 1.0 Decade 75 59% $ $ $ 0 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ 9.7 Century 72 56% $ $ $ 0 0 $ - 0 $ - 0 $ 13.1 Week 77 53% $ $ $ 2 0 $ - 0 $ $ Month 57 36% $ $ $ 4 0 $ - 36 $ $ Year 40 22% $ $ $ 5 0 $ - 66 $ $ Decade 33 18% $ $ $ 5 0 $ - 69 $ $ Century 32 17% $ $ $ 5 0 $ - 69 $ $ Week 66 41% $ $ $ 6 0 $ - 61 $ $ Month 47 26% $ $ $ 7 0 $ - 69 $ $ Year 29 15% $ 732Individual $ Receptor Vulnerabilities $ 7 0 $ - 69 $ $ Decade 22 11% $ $ $ 9 0 $ - 69 $ $ Century 20 10% $ $ $ 9 0 $ - 69 $ $ Week 57 33% $ 1, $ $ 10 0 $ - 69 $ $ 1,169.8 Month 38 21% $ 1, $ $ 11 0 $ - 69 $ $ 1,178.4 Year 21 11% $ 1, $ $ 12 0 $ - 69 $ $ 1,182.6 Decade 14 7% $ 1, $ $ 12 0 $ - 69 $ $ 1,190.9 Century 12 6% $ 1, $ $ 12 0 $ - 69 $ $ 1,191.9 Week 49 27% $ 1, $ $ 13 0 $ - 77 $ $ 1,510.7 Month 31 17% $ 1, $ $ 14 0 $ - 77 $ $ 1,520.2 Year 16 9% $ 1, $ $ 14 0 $ - 77 $ $ 1,537.5 Decade 11 6% $ 1, $ $ 14 0 $ - 77 $ $ 1,540.4 Century 10 5% $ 1, $ $ 14 0 $ - 77 $ $ 1,542.4 Level Conditions Eroded Length (km) Metrics Replacement Value ($M) Eroded Area (m 2 ) Replacement Value ($M) Eroded Length (m) Replacement Value ($M) Rec Eroded Area (m 2 ) Total Erosion Pathway Replacement Value ($M) Total Pathway Vulnerability 35

36 MCBCP is inherently more resilient to sea level rise than other regional coastal installations Steeper coastal topography Limited coastal development Adaptive capacity from erodible cliffs Beach training areas are the most vulnerable aspect of MCBCP infrastructure Narrower beaches Acceleration of cliff erosion Sand budget deficits Limited vulnerability to built infrastructure Buildings, roadways, storm drains, recreation areas especially in Del Mar area 36

37 37 Better data to define the topography and variability of the beach zone, especially during storm events Monitoring of current day storm-driven flooding and damage - validation data sets for shoreline models Further analysis of flooding events including detailed hydraulics and interaction with precipitation especially at Santa Margarita River/Lagoon Gaps in Mission Dependency Index assignments to infrastructure Better understanding of the implications of offinstallation SLR impacts on the installation Extend the vulnerability analysis capability to application for natural resources

38 Incorporate sea level rise into long term planning Preserve and enhance existing buffer zones Develop new buffer zones Allow cliffs to erode Minimize new construction on/near beaches and bluffs Replenish beaches

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40 40 Regional sea level rise scenarios including mean and variability, and total water level predictions for a range of return periods (from week to century) at 100 m increments along the shoreline Seamless bathymetric/topographic digital elevation model for the current-day condition of the shoreline and the base areas A set of compete, seamless bathymetric/topographic digital elevation models for future sea level conditions of 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 m that reflect the expected changes to the shoreline A set of GIS map overlays that show the erosion footprints associated with 25 combinations of long-term sea level rise and short-term wave events A set of GIS map overlays that show the flooding footprints associated with 25 combinations of long-term sea level rise and short-term wave events for both exposed and protected shorelines GIS maps of changes in currents and bottom shear stress for future sea level conditions of 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 m

41 41 Clean GIS layers for 5 categories of critical infrastructure including Buildings, Training Areas, Waterfront Structures (e.g. piers), Coastal Structures (e.g. jetties), and Civil Infrastructure (roads, airfields, storm drains, rec areas) Vulnerability analysis for assets within these 5 categories of infrastructure to higher water levels, erosion, inundation and flooding based on category specific metrics