IEA In-depth review of Greece
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1 IEA In-depth review of Greece Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director, International Energy Agency IEA Athens, 2 November 2017
2 The global energy context today Global energy markets are changing rapidly Solar at records highs, driven by policy support & cost reductions Electric car sales are growing exponentially Renewed focus on energy efficiency While a continued focus on oil security is essential, a broader approach to energy security is needed due to changes in natural gas & electricity markets There is no single story about the future of global energy; policies will determine where we go from here
3 A rapidly shifting energy landscape Shares in growth in world energy demand Nuclear 2% Renewables 12% Coal 10% Renewables 32% Gas 23% Coal 47% Oil 27% Oil 16% Nuclear 0% Gas 31% Since 2010, efficiency measures have slowed down growth in global energy consumption. Renewables and natural gas account for almost two-thirds of the growth.
4 Natural Gas: The United States accounts for 40% of global production growth Global natural gas production growth, United States Middle East China Australia Russia Europe bcm Since 2009, US shale has added the equivalent of two Qatars to the global balance; Middle East and China set to significantly expand production to 2022
5 Global CO 2 emissions flat for 3 years Global energy-related CO 2 emissions Gt Global CO2 emissions remained flat in 2016 for the third year in a row, even though the global economy grew
6 Efficiency and renewables key to global climate change mitigation Global CO2 emissions reductions in the Central & 2 C Scenario by technology Gt Central Scenario Efficiency 26 Renewables 22 2 C Scenario Fuel switching Nuclear CCS 18 Other Supply-side investment needs to be re-directed, not increased; demand-side investment for energy efficiency, electrification & renewables needs to ramp up significantly.
7 Turning to Greece From a global energy context to energy policy in Greece
8 Energy Sector Reform Electricity: Gas: - Transmission operator fully unbundled from PPC - Wholesale and retail markets still dominated by PPC - Gradual introduction of EU target model starting in Retail sector opened to competition on 1 January Transmission unbundling pending need to expedite selling off 66% share of TSO - Rethinking DEPA s role in the unbundled supply companies Energy Sector Regulator pursued timely implementation of legislation jointly with other stakeholders
9 Security of Supply Greece compliant with IEA oil stock holding requirement since 2004 National oil and gas emergency plan adopted since last in-depth review Gas emergency plan proved robust during the winter 2016/17 supply shortage, but: - vulnerability to disruptions of the LNG supply chain - need to make electricity and gas sectors more price responsive - need to further strengthen regional interconnections and storage
10 GDP and CO2 are decoupling, but slower compared to IEA average GDP, CO₂ emissions and carbon intensity in Greece and IEA29, Index 2005 GDP (PPP) - IEA29 CO2 emissions - IEA29 GDP (PPP) - Greece CO2 emissions - Greece Decoupling CO₂ emissions strongly related to GDP development Greece needs to prepare for a recovering economy
11 Electricity Sector moving towards decarbonization Electricity generation by fuel TWh Oil Coal Natural gas Biofuels and waste Hydro Solar Wind Net imports Greece managed to integrate high levels of renewables due to a diversified electricity capacity mix
12 Greece IDR: Key Recommendations Energy Planning: Develop an integrated national energy and climate policy framework for 2030 and beyond Sector Reform: Continue to prioritize implementation of gas and power sector reforms to further the creation of competitive and financially viable markets Energy Efficiency: Continue to pursue the implementation of ambitious energy efficiency policies Renewables: Leverage the renewable energy potential of the islands through interconnections with the mainland transmission system Regulatory Capacity: Ensure regulators capacity to carry out reform and oversight and ensure sufficient resources
13 IEA
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