of Present and Future

Transcription

1 Life Cycle Assessment of Present and Future Photovoltaic Systems M. Raugei (1), P. Frankl (2), E. Alsema (3), M. de Wild-Scholten (4), V. Fthenakis (5), H.C. Kim (5) (1) Ambiente Italia, Italy (2) IEA, France (3) Utrecht University, The Netherlands (4) ECN, The Netherlands (5) BNL and Columbia University, NY, USA AIST Symposium Expectations and Advanced Technologies in Renewable Energy Chiba, Japan, 11 October 2007

2 LCA 2

3 PV Technologies SOLAR ELECTRICITY Silicon-based Crystalline Si Amorphous Si Thin Film Non-silicon-based Thin Film New Concept Devices Singe-crystalline Si CdTe CIS Multi-crystaline Si Ribbon cast multi-crystalline Si Organic-based PV Solar Concentrator Systems Quantum cells 3

4 The Life Cycle of PV 4

5 Energy Pay-Back Time 5

6 Global Warming Potential 6

7 GWP Benchmark (present) Coal Oil Gas CC Biomass CHP PV mc-si Nuclear USA PV CdTe Wind Sources: ExternE project, 2003; Kim and Dale, 2005; Fthenakis and Kim, 2006; Fthenakis and Alsema, 2006; Fthenakis and Kim, in press. 7

8 Life-Cycle Cd emissions Source: Fthenakis,

9 Normalized impact scores (CML 2) mc-si Most significant impacts: global warming } acidification mostly caused by energy consumption human toxicity Source: CRYSTALCLEAR project 9

10 CONCLUSIONS (I): Strong points of PV technology Large installation ti potential ti GHG emissions reasonably low Zero or near-zero emissions of toxic substances (direct emissions) Potential for further improvement in GHG/EPBT 10

11 CONCLUSIONS (I): Issues which need attention Reduce energy consumption (and GHG emission) in solar cell production Reduce dependency on scarce metals (In, Te, Ag) Close the material cycles (recycling) Zero-emission production facilities 11

12 FUTURE OUTLOOK CRYSTALCLEAR Project 1 (c-si PV) 1,9 1,7 1,5 status 2006 status 2004 Standard techn. 2006: Siemens SoG feedstock Si cons. <10 g/wp cell eff. 15% EPBT (yr) 1,3 1,1 0,9 0,7 0,5 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 Si consumption (g/wp)

13 FUTURE OUTLOOK CRYSTALCLEAR Project (c-si PV) 1,9 1,7 1,5 status 2006 status 2004 Standard techn. 2006: Siemens SoG feedstock Si cons. <10 g/wp cell eff. 15% EPBT (yr) 1,3 1,1 0,9 Improvements: reduce Si consumption 0,7 0,5 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 Si consumption (g/wp) 13

14 FUTURE OUTLOOK CRYSTALCLEAR Project (c-si PV) 1,9 1,7 1,5 Standard techn. 2006: t t Siemens SoG feedstock Si cons. <10 g/wp cell eff. 15% status 2006 status 2004 EPBT (yr r) 1,3 1,1 Improvements: reduce Si consumption 0,9 0,7 cell eff -> 17% cell eff -> 19% 0,5 00 0,0 20 2,0 40 4,0 60 6,0 80 8,0 10,00 12,0 14,0 Si consumption (g/wp) Siemens feedstock 15% Siemens feedstock 17% Siemens feedstock 19% 14

15 FUTURE OUTLOOK CRYSTALCLEAR Project (c-si PV) 1,9 1,7 1,5 t t Standard techn. 2006: Siemens SoG feedstock Si cons. <10 g/wp cell eff. 15% status 2006 status 2004 EPBT (yr r) 1,3 1,1 Improvements: reduce Si consumption 0,9 0,7 cell eff -> 17% cell eff -> 19% 0,5 00 0,0 20 2,0 40 4,0 60 6,0 80 8,0 10,00 12,0 14,0 Si consumption (g/wp) --- switch to FBR feedstock Siemens feedstock 15% Siemens feedstock 17% Siemens feedstock 19% FBR feedstock 15% FBR feedstock 17% FBR feedstock 19% 15

16 c-si PV Outlook Energy Pay-Back Time for Future Silicon PV (rooftop system, S.-Europe) Energy Pay-Back Time (yr) present multi 13.2% future multi 17% future multi 17%, wind el Life-cycle CO2 emissions of PV (grid-connected, roof-top PV system; irradiation 1700 kwh/m2/yr) multi-si PV 13.2% Energy Pay Back Time can be halved, to < 1 year; CO 2-eq emission can be reduced to 15 g/kwh, with use of green electricity to 10 g/kwh. future multi 17% future multi 17% wind el. 16

17 End of life - Shares RER: LANDFILL PC WITHOUT HOUSING OFFICE RER: LANDFILL HOUSING OFFICE R ER: LANDFILL MONITOR CRT RER: LANDFILL MONITOR TFT R ECYCLING PC p WITHOUT HOUSING RECYCLING HOUSING p RECYCLING MONITOR p CRT RECYCLING MONITOR p TFT INCINERATION PC WITHOUT MONITOR INCINERATION HOUSING INCINERATION MONITOR CRT INCINERATION MONITOR TFT p X NOX UV - radiation Stratosphere km Absorption Absorption CFCs Nitrogen oxide Absorption Reflection UV - radiation Infrared radiation CFCs CO 2 CH4 H 2SO 44 Air pollution Hydrocarbons Nitrogen oxides N2O NH3 HNO 3 Waste water Ozone PO4-3 SO 2 Fertilisation - NO3 NH4 + Dry and warm climate Hydrocarbons Nitrogen oxides FUTURE OUTLOOK - NEEDS Project 2 1. Technology diffusion i scenario analysis 3 different scenarios 2. Technology development path Factors affecting technological development Technology shift 3. Parametric LCA for each scenario With and without change of background system LCI 2 TECHNOLOGY m c-si: m ulti-crystalline Literature data Estim ated data Calculated data KEY PARAMETERS Unit Module efficiency % 13,2% 16,0% 18,0% 21,0% 23,0% 25,0% M odule technical life years 25,00 30,00 35,00 40,00 45,00 50,00 Material consumption Silicon External Feedstock kg/kwp 12,82 7,82 3,91 3,15 2,90 2,76 (mass/kw p) W afer thickness μm 300,00 180,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 Kerf loss μm 200,00 160,00 150,00 150,00 150,00 150,00 Environmental impact g CO2 eq/ 31,00 23, ,00 kwhel MJ/kWp Cost/Prices (module) /W p 3,00 2,00 1,00 0,70 0,60 0,50 Product system modelling Environmental evaluation Generic Modules LCIA atmosphere the the gases in gases Trace NO X p 4. Estimate of External Costs LCA

18 Three Development Scenarios Pessimistic Current incentives not supported long enough for PV technology to ever become competitive. Growth of world PV market severely stunted by Optimistic / Realistic c-si, thin films and new concept devices likely to co-exist. Initial growth according to industry (EPIA) predictions; after 2025 reduced growth rates (GP/EREC). Very optimistic / Technological Breakthrough Bold (quadratic) annual growth rates as early as By mid 2030 s large scale energy storage infrastructure available; very rapid expansion of new concept devices after

19 Cumulative Installed Capacity (World) GWp Pessimistic Optimistic / Realistic V. Optimistic / Techn. Breakthrough 19

20 Technology Specification (3 scenarios) V.Optimistic Cum. Capacity Technology GWp sc-si crystalline-si mc-si (thick) (thin) 570 8,900 thin films novel devices crystalline-si thin films novel devices a-si CIS CdTe DSC Conc Q-cell sc-si mc-si (thick) (thin) a-si CIS CdTe DSC Conc Q-cell c-si layer thickness um N/A N/A N/A N/A Module efficiency 22% 20% 20% 12% 15% 20% 18% 10% 35% 35% 28% 25% 25% 16% 20% 25% 22% 17% 50% 50% Module lifetime years Installed capacity GWp Market share % 50% 45% 5% 15% 35% 50% Opt. / Realistic Cum. Capacity GWp Technology sc-si crystalline-si mc-si (thick) (thin) ,400 thin films novel devices crystalline-si thin films a-si CIS CdTe DSC Conc Q-cell sc-si mc-si (thick) (thin) novel devices a-si CIS CdTe DSC Conc Q-cell c-si layer thickness um N/A N/A N/A N/A Module efficiency 22% 20% 20% 12% 15% 20% 18% 10% 35% 35% 25% 22% 22% 14% 18% 25% 22% 15% 40% 40% Module lifetime years Installed capacity GWp Market share % 50% 45% 5% 35% 35% 30% Pessimistic Cum. Capacity GWp Technology sc-si crystalline-si thin films novel devices crystalline-si thin films mc-si (thick) (thin) a-si CIS CdTe DSC Conc Q-cell sc-si mc-si (thick) (thin) novel devices a-si CIS CdTe DSC Conc Q-cell c-si layer thickness um N/A N/A N/A N/A Module efficiency 17% 14% 14% 12% 10% 14% 12% N/A 22% 18% 18% 12% 15% 18% 16% 10% 35% 35% Module lifetime years N/A Installed capacity GWp Market share % 85% 15% 0% 50% 45% 5% 20

21 Preliminary Results LCI results ( Optimistic / Realistic scenario) with fixed background data Comparison present, 2025, ,800 kwh/(m2*yr) on tilted roof, south-oriented ,0 g CO O2 / kwh ,3 4,6 8,2 3,0 7,0 0 single crystalline present c-si 2025 CdTe 2025 c-si 2050 CdTe 2050 Concentrator GaInP/GaAs

22 Benchmark Future PV Systems GWP of different energy technologies (source: Elaboration from Ecoinvent 2003 using IPCC method) 0,045 0,040 0,035 /kwh kg CO2-Eq 0,030 0,025 0,020 0,015 0, ,005 0,000 PV present Hydro max Wind RER Nuclear UCTE PV future Hydro min (mc-si) (average) For comparison (present): Coal= g CO 2 /kwh; UCTE mix = 454 g CO 2 /kwh Gas CC = 400 g CO 2 /kwh 22

23 CONCLUSIONS (II) SUSTAINABILITY OF PV Low PV life cycle emissions already today Expected to further decrease by an order of magnitude by orders of magnitude lower than fossils Lower than nuclear 23