Photovoltaics: Status and Perspectives. Paul Wyers

Transcription

1 Photovoltaics: Status and Perspectives Paul Wyers

2 Photovoltaic conversion: typical device structure of silicon solar cell anti-reflection coating sunlight _ front contact n-type Si solar cell heat electricity (+) (-) p-type Si back contact

3 Energy reserves in perspective

4 Solar resource solar irradiation in kwh/m 2. day (source: ABB, 1998)

5 The role of photovoltaics in the future energy supply WBGU scenario

6 Approximate market shares Off-grid industrial 10% Off-grid rural 5% Grid connected power plants 5% Consumer 5% Grid connected integrated in buildings & other 75%

7 The PV Market yearly growth of 30-65% in past 7 years volume 2005 of 1640 MWp (14 km 2 ) turnover 2005 of $ 5.3 billion (PiperJaffray, October 2005) cell production (MWp)

8 Requirements for very large-scale use Turn-key system price < 1 /Wp Excellent environmental profile

9 Learning curve PV modules technology and volume [2001 $] Power Modules ( ) Price of Power Modules (2001 $) Estimate : PR = 80.0±0.4% Estimate : PR = 77.0±1.5% Cumulative Shipments [MW p] power modules (SU, 2003) source: EU Photex project 2003?

10 Expected evolution of turn-key photovoltaic system prices typical turn-key system price ( /Wp) BOS modules BOS = Balance-Of-System year

11 2005 PV electricity price ( / kwh) 0.50 consumer electricity price ( / kwh) 0.22 PV electricity prices compared with typical consumer electricity prices break-even boundary

12 2010 PV electricity price ( / kwh) 0.35 consumer electricity price ( / kwh) 0.23 PV electricity prices compared with expected consumer electricity prices (+ 1%/yr)

13 2015 PV electricity price ( / kwh) 0.25 consumer electricity price ( / kwh) 0.24 PV electricity prices compared with expected consumer electricity prices (+ 1%/yr)

14 2020 PV electricity price ( / kwh) 0.20 consumer electricity price ( / kwh) 0.26 PV electricity prices compared with expected consumer electricity prices (+ 1%/yr)

15 2030 PV electricity price ( / kwh) 0.10 consumer electricity price ( / kwh) 0.28 PV electricity prices compared with expected consumer electricity prices (+ 1%/yr)

16 PV technologies today Commercial: crystalline silicon technically getting mature, main vehicle for price reduction (93% of 2004 global market) Commercial: thin films emerging, overall development somewhat slower than expected (7% of 2004 global market) Laboratory & pilot production Still long way to go to professional use, first products for indoor and low power applications

17 PV technology development: no revolution, but evolution module price ( /Wp) OSC technology families Thin-films Crystalline silicon technology generations 2020 new concepts > module efficiency (%) (free after W. Hoffmann)

18 Production process for a crystalline silicon module

19 Crystalline silicon PV: main challenges 1. Reduce costs Low-cost feedstock Secure silicon feedstock supply Reduce material costs Thin wafers or direct casting Alternative module materials Higher conversion efficiencies Upscaling and integration of production process 2. Improve environmental profile Avoid rare and/or hazardous materials Reduce energy pay-back time

20 Energy Pay-Back Time CrystalClear EU Integrated Project E.A. Alsema (UU) and M.J. de Wild-Scholten (ECN).

21 Volume (MT/yr) Polysilicon supply and demand Source: Wacker 2 nd SoG-Si Workshop Photovoltaics: growth potential = 30% Silicon availability at growth of 10% Shortages of Polysilicon Total Capacity Semiconductor demand Photovoltaics demand

22 Silicon losses 13 tons Si / MWp Source: Sarti,D. and R.Einhaus (2002): Silicon feedstock for the multi-crystalline photovoltaic industry; Solar Energy Materials and Solar Cells 72 (1-4): 27-40

23 Reducing silicon consumption: thin (sliced) wafers or direct casting of ribbons Wafer thickness [µm] Wafers/kg Si [#/kg] Casting frame (cut) Gassing Annealing Direction Finished foils Source: Meyer&Burger 40 µm Preheating Continuous substrate

24 Module manufacturing costs 30% 22% silicon wafer cell module 20% 28%

25 Direct c-si module manufacturing costs 2005: 2 /Wp silicon wafer cell module 0.3 /Wp in 20?? 120 µm ribbons 17% efficiency Fully Integrated manufacturing (100 MWp per line, quartz-to-module)

26 Research focus Established R&Dperformers silicon wafer cell module

27 Research focus FEST-PV (ISC, ECN, ) silicon wafer cell module Research Centre for Front End Silicon Technology Scope: silicon feedstock production, ingot crystallization, wafering, cleaning

28 FEST on Avantis? feasibility study in progress

29 ECN wishes ISC a lot of Fun, Enthusiasm & Sunny Timesimes Floriade (2.3 MWp PV)