2030: A look into the crystal ball

Transcription

1 2030: A look into the crystal ball Winnipeg, Manitoba February 18, 2010

2 What happens when humans predict their future? CREATIVITY CREATIVITY MEDIA TRANSPORT EQUALITY MEDIA TRANSPORT EQUALITY "Everything that can be invented has been invented." Source: Roland Berger Charles Duell, US patent office, 1899 "Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" "Everything "Who "Heavier-than-air "If anything the hell remains that wants can flying to more be hear machines invented or actors less has talk?" are unchanged, impossible." been invented." it is the role of women." Warner Brothers, 1927 H.M. Lord Warner, Kelvin, President co-founder Charles of of the Warner Royal Duell, David Riesman, US patent Brothers, Society, Conservative office, American social scientist, 1967 H.M. Warner, co-founder of "Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible." Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society, 1895 "If anything remains more or less unchanged, it is the role of women." David Riesman, Conservative American social scientist,

3 Source: Roland Berger : Consumer needs, values and lifestyles have been shaped by changes in some key areas POPULATION GROWTH URBANIZATION ENERGY CONSUMPTION ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSPORTATION

4 POPULATION GROWTH Around 2030, Canada will boast approximately 39 million people GETTING OLDER [%] BUT STEADY GROWTH [IN M PEOPLE] % 5% 5% 11% 10% 10% 7% 5% 5% 14% 12% 11% 21% 20% 21% Under 5 years 5 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 29 years 30 to 44 years 28% 27% 26% to 64 years 14% 19% 23% years and over Source: Statistics Canada, Roland Berger Trend Compendium

5 POPULATION GROWTH For the first time in Canadian history, the share of older exceeds the one of younger generations Demographic change over time [%] 100 TODAY years years >65 years Source: Statistics Canada, Roland Berger 5

6 Source: Statistics Canada, Roland Berger 6 POPULATION GROWTH This historic change will be underlined by two main factors NATURAL INCREASE DOWN BY ~100% AND NEGATIVE GROWTH AFTER 2030 NET MIGRATION UP BY ~22%

7 URBANIZATION Even more people will live in urban, densely populated areas % change in population by 2030 CANADA > 20%, Average annual growth exceeds Canada > 10% < 10% < 0% Edmonton Edmonton Calgary Calgary Vancouver Vancouver Size of bubble = city population in 2030 High density zone Source: Statistics Canada, Roland Berger Victoria Victoria Seattle Portland Eugene Saskatoon Saskatoon Regina Regina USA Sherbrooke Winnipeg Ottawa/ Montréal Winnipeg Gatineau Québec St. Catharines- Niagara Ottawa/ Halifax Québec Gatineau Barrie Montréal Kitchener Barrie Halifax Kitchener London Oshawa London Hamilton Oshawa Sherbrooke Toronto HamiltonWindsor Toronto Boston Windsor St. Catharines-Niagara Detroit NYC Chicago Cleveland Philadelphia Indianapolis Cincinnati 7

8 URBANIZATION Urbanization comes with side effects Impact of congestion Cost increase Fuel consumption Congestion charges Possible road use charges based on vehicle application, (i.e., business vs. personal travel) Travel Time Policy making Source: Source: INRIX traffic scorecard, MEMA, Roland Berger 8

9 ENERGY CONSUMPTION Energy consumption grows dependence on oil continues SECONDARY ENERGY DEMAND BY END-USE SECTOR, [PETAJOULES] SECONDARY ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL, [% SHARE] +30% 14,300 12,400 1,800 11,000 1,700 10,250 2,200 1,600 1,450 1,700 8,100 1,600 1,500 1,300 6,600 1,000 6,000 4,800 5,100 3,800 2,000 2,500 2,700 3,000 3, % 6% 31% 19% 100 3% 6% 31% 18% 100 2% 6% 100 2% 5% 29% 27% 17% 16% 42% 42% 46% 50% 100% Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Other Natural Gas Petroleum Biofuels/Emerging energy Electric Source: National Energy Board, EIA, Roland Berger 9

10 PROVINCIAL FEDERAL Source: National Energy Board, Statistics Canada, Roland Berger 10 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY We expect environmental policies to be strengthened globally, with stricter legislation focused on sustainability TURNING THE CORNER An action plan to reduce GHG and air pollution (20% reduction from 2006 levels by 2020) OTHER POLICIES Specifically targeted at transportation industry VISION FOR CLEAN ENERGY LEADERSHIP Alberta GREEN ENERGY ACT Quebec POLICY DIRECTIVES British Columbia Ontario Nova Scotia CLIMATE CHANGE AND EMISSIONS MGMT AMENDMENT ACT ENERGY STRATEGY

11 Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2008; Roland Berger 11 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY To limit global warming, CO 2 -emissions have to be reduced on a global basis transportation one of key contributors GLOBAL CO 2 EMISSIONS FORECAST 1) [GT CO 2 ] Other Power generation Transportation % 41% 23% % 44% 22% Ref. scen 32.5 Scen % 45% 22% Ref. scen Scen. 450 Reference Scenario Scenario 450 2) > Reference scenario 45% increase in CO 2 emissions until 2030 Likely to lead to >5 C global warming No changes in existing > Scenario 450 2) Major CO 2 reductions need to keep global warming <2 C 1) IEA (International Energy Agency); 2) 450 parts per million CO 2 equivalent in the atmosphere

12 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY Significant progress has been made on emissions standards no further regulation expected g/kwh EURO II EURO III EURO IV EURO V 3.5 EURO VI 0.4 >EURO VI EPA 98 EPA 04 EPA EPA ) >EPA 10 3) EURO III EURO II EURO IV EURO V 4) EURO III EURO IV >EURO IV EURO IV >EURO VI EURO V EURO I 2) EURO II EURO III EURO IV EURO V EURO VI >EURO VI NOx PM 1) Only 50% of group sales have to comply with NOx standard; 100% in 2010; 2) Introduction in Shanghai already in 1999; 3) Based on European standards; 4) For domestic new vehicles Note: Carbon monoxide (CO) and Hydrocarbons (HC) are also subject to regulations; not displayed here Source: Press; dieselnet; govt. websites; Roland Berger 12

13 Stronger standards Source: Delphi; DieselNet; Press; Roland Berger 13 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY By 2030, most countries will have enforced similar strict - CO 2 standards. Forecast emission standards for commercial vehicles, 2030 Euro VI / EPA 10 Euro V Euro IV Euro III/EPA 98 Euro II/EPA 94 CO 2 emission standards for commercial vehicles expected Not in focus of study

14 MEDICAL PERSONAL INDUSTRIAL Source: Nowandnext Innovation Timeline, BT Technology Timeline, Roland Berger 14 INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY Technology and innovation take an ever-increasing role in shaping consumers' lifestyles Intelligent cosmetics Moodsensitive home decor Wearable computer Dream machines Robotic surgery Fully autopiloted cars 3D printers Accelerated schooling Selfrepairing roads Space factories Road reservation system Computers that write most of their own software Full voice interaction with PC Face recognition doors Holographic TV Anti-noise technology in gardens Virtual holidays Single global currency Video wallpaper Location device implanted into pets Artificial eyes Synthetic bacteria Childcare robots Genebased diets Sleep surrogates Memory enhancement in humans

15 VEHICLE POWERTRAIN FUELS Source: Roland Berger DESIGN MATERIALS PROCESSES 15 INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY There is a broad variety of fields that might help meet future standards Challenges to be solved Vehicle improvements Powertrain improvements Hybrids Electric Vehicles Fuel Cells Potential of CO 2 reduction Commercial availability Customer financial benefit Other challenges Alternative Fuels 1) Including improvements on diesel/oil

16 INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY Two powertrain scenarios are likely for 2030, depending on different underlying hypotheses Fuels MODERATE: "DOWNSIZED MOBILITY" > Fossil fuel prices stabilize at a high level AGGRESSIVE: "THE FUTURE DRIVES ELECTRIC" > Fossil fuel prices rising Infrastructure Legislation Customer Technology > Relative market price decrease for syn/bio fuels > Charging infrastructure limited to cities > CNG/LPG in major regions > No hydrogen network > Limited regulatory pressure > Congestion leading to change in customer behavior (smaller cars) > Cost efficient advanced ICE > Syn/bio fuel prices high > Charging infrastructure rapidly growing (urban, suburban) > No hydrogen network > High tax penalties for high emission cars > Restrictions to enter mega cities with non-zev > Congestion leading to change in customer behavior (smaller cars) > Cost efficient batteries CHANGES IN MARKET SHARE Roland Berger forecast Source: Roland Berger PHEV/EV Adv. fuel combustion Alternative fuels PHEV/EV Fuel based vehicle 16

17 Source: Roland Berger 17 INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY A larger portion of commercial vehicles will have hybrid technology SHARE OF HYBRID VEHICLES IN CLASS 4 & 5 SALES [%] CURRENT FORECAST ~15% ~20-25% > Penetration will differ by customer group fleets to adopt first > Regulations will support hybrids, but business case still a challenge 0% ~1-2%

18 Source: Roland Berger 18 TRANSPORTATION Given these new developments, what does mobility look like in 2030? PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION GOES CROSS-COUNTRY AND CONNECTS CANADA TO THE WORLD PHEVs AND EVs ARE MORE POPULAR IN N. AMERICAN AUTOMOTIVE MARKET HYBRIDS GROW TO 15-25% OF SELECT COMMERCIAL TRUCKS AIR TRAVEL GOES SUBORBITAL

19 TRANSPORTATION Public transportation will see significant changes Federal and provincial investments are underway in key corridors Edmonton PACIFIC HIGHWAY Vancouver Calgary Saskatoon Regina Winnipeg Minneapolis Ontario East Toronto FORT ERIE Halifax Montreal LACOLLE Hubs Federal/provincial investments Existing transportation paths Chicago Detroit SARNIA WINDSOR QUEENSTON Together handle 73% of trucking traffic value Source: National Policy Framework, Roland Berger Proposed transportation paths 19

20 Source: ITSA.org, Roland Berger 20 TRANSPORTATION By 2030, we expect further advancements in today's technology to create a fully intelligent transportation system INTELLIGENT VEHICLES INTELLIGENT INFRASTRUCTURE Collision notification Collision warning Driver assistance 1 Auto-pilot vehicles Traveler information Electronic pay system Incident management Arterial management Freeway management Transit management systems Emergency management systems Commercial vehicle operations Intermodal freight Crash prevention and safety Roadway operations & maintenance Roadway weather management Information management

21 Source: Roland Berger 21 In conclusion what does life look like in 2030? PEOPLE 2030 TRAVEL HOUSING WORK

22 Source: Roland Berger 22 In conclusion what does life look like in 2030? There will be more of us, and we will live longer Most of us will live in densely populated cities along the Canada-US borders We'll still be (very) hungry for energy, but also more environmentally conscious Our vehicles will be more efficient, and more "intelligent" We'll travel near and far, and in very different ways

23 23 Thank you, and remember predictions are only predictions CREATIVITY MEDIA TRANSPORT EQUALITY "Everything that can be invented has been invented." "Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" "Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible." "If anything remains more or less unchanged, it is the role of women." Charles Duell, US patent office, 1899 H.M. Warner, co-founder of Warner Brothers, 1927 Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society, 1895 David Riesman, Conservative American social scientist, 1967