Weekly Performance Update - To Grain Week 30 (CY 2017) Covering 90% of grain movement originating in Western Canada
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- Jennifer Skinner
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1 Week 30 Performance CN and CP supplied a combined 32% of hopper cars ordered in grain week 30. CN supplied 17% of cars ordered while CP supplied 50% of cars ordered. On a combined basis week 30 has yielded the poorest order fulfillment performance to date during the grain year. CN and CP combined enter week 31 with 5,383 outstanding orders - a 36% increase (+1,400) from the position entering week 30. In week 30 order fulfillment performance was poor across all corridors with no corridor on CN receiving more than 23% of cars ordered and only one - Vancouver - on CP receiving more than 40% of cars ordered. CN supplied 23% of cars ordered for the Vancouver corridor making it the best performing corridor for the week - all remaining corridors saw less than 15% of orders filled including Prince Rupert (11%). CP performance was marginally better on the whole than CN in week 30 although at 65% Vancouver was the only corridor above 40%. The US and Eastern Canada corridors saw shippers receive 18% and 36% of cars ordered from CP respectively. CN CP CN supplied only 17% of hopper cars ordered for the second consecutive week resulting in the failure to supply 3,419 orders on time. For week 30 CN supplied only 693 of the 4,112 hopper cars ordered. Week 30 performance equals the worst performance of the current grain year and marks the 9th consecutive week and the 18th time in the prior 20 weeks that CN has failed to supply at least 80% of cars ordered by shippers. During that 20 week period CN has failed to supply at least 60% of hopper cars ordered 10 times. Performance was poor across all regions and for all shippers. A total of three (3) CN served shippers received 0% of the cars they ordered for week 30 while four (4) others received less than 20% of cars. Shipper demand remained above the 4,000 car threshold for the seventh time in the last 8 weeks averaging 4,200 orders weekly over that time period. CN rationed 915 shipper orders in week 30 - approximately half the number of orders rationed in the prior week. Preliminary indications are that rationing will continue for the next two weeks with an estimated 1,000 cars rationed in each of those weeks. Rationed orders this week were once again focused on the Vancouver and Prince Rupert corridors that accounted for 95% of all rationed orders. Over the course of the last 5 weeks CN has rationed nearly 5,300 orders with Vancouver (2,270) and Prince Rupert (2,755) accounting for 93% of all rationing. This is consistent with the low level of port unloads seen during this time period which is likely to continue in the coming weeks. Through the first 30 weeks of the current grain year CN has rationed a total of 17,110 hopper car orders for ATC shippers, nearly 6x as many as during the same time period last year and more than 4x as many as all of last year. It is noteworthy that the discrepancy in year over year performance and the material increase in asset rationing is occurring during a year when shipper demand is effectively identical to that seen last year. Year to date orders have been rationed across all corridors as shown below: Prince Rupert 6,817 Vancouver 7,400 Thunder Bay 2,199 All other 694 Orders rationed by CN during the current grain year represent 13% of total shipper demand through the first 30 weeks. Heading in to week 31 CN has 2,831 outstanding orders - an increase of more than 300 (13%) from the level of outstanding orders heading into week 30. CP fulfilled 50% of hopper car orders in week 30 which represents the worst one week performance for CP during the currrent grain year. The last five weeks (26-30) represent the five worst weeks for on time order fulfillment for CP during the current grain year with CP averaging 66% on time order fulfillment performance during that time period as compared to 89% in the 25 preceding weeks. CP has now fallen below the 80% performance threshold for the fifth consecutive week. For week 30 CP supplied 1,736 of the 3,492 hopper cars ordered - including 311 orders filled early (prior to week 30). Shipper demand remained below the 4,000 car threshold for the 9th consecutive week averaging 3,400 orders weekly during that time period. While CP performance was better than CN in week 30 it is noted that three shippers served by CP received less than 5% of the cars ordered for the week - a repeat of last week's performance. No hopper car orders were rationed by CP in week 30 Heading in to week 31 CP has 2,552 outstanding orders - an increase of nearly 1,100 (73%) from their position entering week 30. 1
2 Performance Dashboard Hopper Car Demand Weekly Performance Update - To Grain Week 30 (CY 2017) Cars Shipped Week 30 This Year Last Year This Year versus Last Year This Year This Year Last Year vs. Last Year YTD Weekly Average YTD Weekly Average YTD Weekly Average CN 4,112 4,262 (150) 133,792 4, ,674 4, CP 3,492 3, ,188 4, ,202 4, ,604 7, ,980 8, ,876 8,528 1, Railway Corridor Week 30 YTD CN N.A. Domestic ,963 Prince Rupert 1,064 30,684 Thunder Bay 12,510 Vancouver 1,522 56,783 Total 2, ,940 CP N.A. Domestic ,691 Thunder Bay 25,449 Vancouver 1,237 78,872 Total 1, ,012 Empty Hopper Cars Supplied - Week 30 (All Want Weeks) Current Week Orders This Last Year Year Prior Week Orders Future Week Orders Total Cars Supplied Last Last This This Year Year This Year Year Year Last Year CN 682 3,843 2, ,710 4,394 CP 1,425 1, , ,019 3,233 2,107 5,631 2,622 1, ,729 7,627 Supplied by Block Size Week 30 Year to Date Block Size CN CP Total CN CP Total 1 1% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 25 4% 7% 5% 4% 2% 3% 50 12% 5% 9% 12% 11% 12% % 84% 84% 81% 84% 83% Current Week Order Fulfillment CN CP Total Current Week Hopper Car Demand 4,112 3,492 7,604 Current Week Order Fulfillment Supplied in Current Week 682 1,425 2,107 Supplied Early Total Cars Supplied for Want Week 693 1,736 2,429 Current Week Unfulfilled Demand (3,419) (1,756) (5,175) % Current Week Orders Supplied 17% 50% 32% 17% 50% Loaded Dwell Time (Hours) at Origin (All Traffic) Week 30 Year to Date This Year Last Year This Year Last Year CN CP Dwell Time (Hours) at Destination (All Traffic) Week 30 Year to Date This Year Last Year This Year Last Year Vancouver CN CP Thunder Bay CN CP
3 3
4 4
5 Corridor Performance Total Hopper Car Supply by Corridor for Current Year Orders - To Week 30 Railway Corridor Ordered Supplied Unfulfilled Demand %Supplied CN Vancouver Bulk 64,695 55,096 (9,599) 85% Thunder Bay 14,979 12,493 (2,486) 83% Prince Rupert 38,763 30,515 (8,248) 79% Vancouver Other / W. Canada 2,374 1,953 (421) 82% USA / Mexico 5,513 4,936 (577) 90% Eastern Canada 7,468 6,621 (847) 89% Total 133, ,614 (22,178) 83% CP Vancouver Bulk 78,396 75,437 (2,959) 96% Thunder Bay 25,954 25,413 (541) 98% Vancouver Other / W. Canada 5,157 4,362 (795) 85% USA / Mexico 9,777 9,142 (635) 94% Eastern Canada 3,904 3,651 (253) 94% Total 123, ,005 (5,183) 96% 5
6 Hopper Cars Supplied in the Want Week by Corridor - To Week 30 Week 30 Year to Date Railway Corridor Ordered Supplied %Supplied Ordered Supplied %Supplied CN Vancouver Bulk 2, % 64,695 43,366 67% Thunder Bay 14,979 11,303 75% Prince Rupert 1, % 38,763 23,933 62% Vancouver Other / W. Canada % 2,374 1,491 63% USA / Mexico % 5,513 3,833 70% Eastern Canada % 7,468 4,874 65% CN Total 4, % 133,792 88,800 66% CP Vancouver Bulk 2,439 1,583 65% 78,396 68,897 88% Thunder Bay 112 0% 25,954 23,029 89% Vancouver Other / W. Canada % 5,157 3,428 66% USA / Mexico % 9,777 7,069 72% Eastern Canada % 3,904 3,004 77% CP Total 3,492 1,736 50% 123, ,427 86% 6
7 Origin Dwell Performance Weekly Performance Update - To Grain Week 30 (CY 2017) 7
8 Destination Dwell Performance 8
9 Port Terminal - Unloading Time Weekly Performance Update - To Grain Week 30 (CY 2017) 9
10 Glossary of Terms Hopper Car Demand Empty Hopper Cars Supplied Supplied by Block Size Hopper Cars Supplied in Want Week Want Week Cars Supplied Early Cars Supplied Late Hopper Car Orders Supplied Within the Want Week Future Week Orders Prior Week Orders Outstanding Orders Unfulfilled Demand Origin Dwell Destination Dwell Unloading Time Port Terminal Unloading Time The total number of hopper cars ordered for a given want week for each of CN and CP. Demand data is presented for the current week report and for the grain year to date. Comparisons are provided for the current grain versus the prior grain year. A count of all empty hopper cars supplied for the grain service week being reported on. Supply is categorized based on whether it is for the current want week, for prior week orders or for future week orders (supplied early). Percentage distribution of total hopper car supply for the current report week and year to date (YTD) based on the block size ordered by shippers and as reported by shippers. A count of all empty hopper cars supplied for a want week in that want week including cars supplied early which are considered on time. Order week as defined by the railways Cars supplied for orders in a given want week supplied in advance of that week these cars are considered on time for performance measurement purposes. Cars supplied during a grain service week that are for a prior week s orders. The number of hopper cars supplied by the railways during or in advance of the want week expressed as a percentage of total orders for the week. Orders supplied in a given grain service week that are for orders in weeks after the week for which performance is being reported. Reference Page 1 Empty Hopper Cars Supplied Orders supplied in a given grain service week that are for orders in weeks prior to the week for which performance is being reported. Reference Page 1 Empty Hopper Cars Supplied Orders that shippers expect to have fulfilled by the railways that remain unfulfilled as of the report date. This excludes bad order cars, shorted cars, denied orders and railway cancellations. The calculation of total unfulfilled demand for hopper cars represents the accumulated difference across all grain weeks in the year between the number of cars ordered by shippers and the number of cars supplied by the railway for those orders. This total unfulfilled demand includes orders not filled as a result of bad order and shorted cars and as such represents the volume of missed and deferred shipper orders. The elapsed time from the release of loaded cars by shippers to the time the railways physically pull the cars from a shipper s siding for movement to destination. The elapsed time from the time a railcar arrives at the destination railway yard to the time it is placed at the receiver s facility for unloading. The average time elapsed between the placement of a loaded car at the receiver s facility and the release of the empty car back to the railway. The average elapsed time between the placement of a loaded car for unloading to the release of the empty car. This measure is based on railway reported placement and empty release events. 10
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