RTB Priority assessment. First World Congress on Root and Tuber Crops Nanning, Guangxi, China 22 nd January, 2016

Transcription

1 RTB Priority assessment First World Congress on Root and Tuber Crops Nanning, Guangxi, China 22 nd January, 2016

2 Task Force Bioversity: Diemuth Pemsl, Charles Staver CIAT: CIP: IITA: RTB: Bernardo Creamer, Glenn Hyman Guy Hareau, Ulrich Kleinwechter Tahirou Abdoulaye, Arega Alene, Joseph Rusike, Holger Kirscht Graham Thiele

3 Outline of presentation Introduction Overview of six steps methodology Process and main results Defining priority options Economic surplus estimates Discussion Stakeholder feedback Conclusions and lessons leant

4 Why strategic assessment of RTB priorities? Five crops: cassava, potatoes, sweetpotatoes, bananas and plantains, yams Five Centers: CIP, CIAT, IITA, Bioversity + CIRAD Limited resources for research What are the best alternatives to invest resources to achieve highest impacts through research?

5 Common methodology: six steps

6 Process and main results

7 Expert survey to identify key constraints Structured questionnaire with major constraints for each crop. Took place in regional meetings relevant to each crop or online through personal invitations and individualized links Banana: Kampala workshop with 45 ARI and national banana scientists to select research options and initial parameters Kicked off in last GCP21 meeting in Uganda!.

8 Overview of expert survey final sample disaggregated by region and crop SSA LAC Asia Others Global Total per crop Cassava Potatoes Sweet potatoes Bananas & Plantains Yams Total per region ,681

9 Option scoring: results

10 Cassava: top 4 research options by crop Global LAC SSA Asia/P Improving shelf life of cassava roots Improving production and distribution of elite planting materials Cassava Mosaic disease(disease management) Developing cassava products for industrial applications (flour and starch)

11 Potatoes: top 4 research options Global LAC SSA Asia/P Late blight control and management Breeding for late blight resistance Breeding for drought tolerance / water use efficiency Breeding for earliness

12 Sweetpotatoes - top 4 research options Global LAC SSA Asia/P Improving the quality of planting material (e.g., elimination of diseases) Pro-vitamin A (beta-carotene) (breeding) Breeding for high yield Improving production and distribution of elite planting materials (formal seed systems)

13 Yam: top 4 research options Global LAC SSA Asia/P Improving shelf life of yam tubers n.d. Improving soil fertility)(micronutrients, fertilizer, organic matter) Improving small scale processing of yam for human consumption Improving technologies for farmer based production and distribution of planting materials(informal) n.d n.d n.d.

14 Bananas: top 4 research options Global LAC SSA Asia/P Breeding for high yield Management of fungal leaf disease (excl. resistant varieties) Breeding for resistance to fungal leaf diseases Strategies to improve soil fertility (micro-nutrients and fertilizer)

15 Economic surplus estimates

16 Economic surplus model and poverty effect 31 research options: Banana - 6; Cassava - 10; Potato - 6; Sweetpotato - 4, Yams - 5 Data base of parameters (country and technology specific) Positive net present values (NPVs) all options IRRs of assessed options indicate considerable poverty reduction

17 Sweetpotato results: adoption ceiling & benefits Technology Duration of Research (years) Years to Maximum Adoption (lag years) No. of Countries Targeted Total Annual R&D Costs (US $'000) Dissem ination Costs (US $/ha) OFSP , SPVD-resistant varieties Sweetpotato seed system Weevil-resistant varieties 1 (Angola:5) , , ,000 50

18 Sweetpotato results: adoption ceiling & benefits Technology Low Adopt. (M ha) High Adopt. (M ha) NPV (million $) low adopt IRR (%) - low NPV (million $)- high adoptio n IRR (%) - high OFSP , SPVD-resistant varieties Sweetpotato seed system Weevil-resistant varieties ,

19 Cassava results: adoption ceiling & benefits/1 Technology Low Adopt. (M ha) High Adopt. (M ha) NPV (M$) low adopt. IRR (%) - low NPV (million $)- high IRR (%) - high HYV with resistance to major diseases , , HYV with high dry matter and , starch HYV with longer shelf life , , HY, drought-tolerant and increased water use efficiency Sustainable crop and soil fertility management , , , ,

20 Cassava results: adoption ceiling & benefits/2 Technology Low Adopt. (M ha) High Adopt. (M ha) NPV (M $) low adopt. IRR (%) - low NPV (million $)- high adopt. IRR (%) - high Integrated pest and disease mgt practices with resist. varieties Efficient. & massive HQPM prod. and distribution. Processing technologies for value addition Strategies to prevent intro. of exotic pests and diseases , , , , , , , , HYV tolerant to cold weather

21 Potato results: adoption ceiling & benefits Technology Low Adoption (M ha) High Adoption (Mha) NPV (M $) low adoption IRR (%) - low NPV (million $)- high adoptio n IRR (%) - high Agile potato Potato seed system BW-resistant varieties , , Virus resistant varieties Potato value chain , , LB resistant varieties

22 Ex-ante assessment of research options for RTB crops: some results of the economic surplus model. Technology Adoption ceiling All Benefits Number of beneficiaries Poverty reduction Lower adoption Higher adoption Lower adoption Higher adoption Lower adoption Higher adoption Lower adoption 000 ha 000 ha NPV IRR NPV IRR '000 '000 '000 '000 '000 (m USD) (m USD) households persons households persons persons Higher adoption '000 persons Banana Bunchy Top Virus (BBTV) Cassava high yielding varieties w/cmd&cbsd resistance Potatoes Late Blight resistance Orange-Flesh Sweet Potato Yam clean planting materials and agronomic practices ,198 56% 2,756 74% 2,063 10,030 3,966 19, ,400 2,610 5,200 1,201 69% 2,420 82% 21, ,000 42, ,000 1,000 2, ,548 1,803 62% 3,738 80% 2,109 9,466 4,217 18, , % 1,232 50% 2,999 14,675 5,998 29, , % 2,076 58% 2,420 17,860 8,050 59,

23 Extending economic surplus analysis: estimation of DALY benefits for OFSP Note: Lower adoption scenario: analysis with 50% lower adoption ceiling. NPV calculated using an interest rate of 10%.

24 Conclusion and lessons leant

25 Key outputs of priority assessment Priority research options selected based on expert survey results & input from RTB resource persons Collection of data/information for model parameters from statistics, existing data sets and group of technical experts Economic surplus (ES), poverty and cost-benefit analysis for a total of 31 research options with harmonized assumptions and methods across all five crops 10 RTB working papers completed Expert survey & ES report for each crop RTBMaps developed as cooperation of RTB Centers interactive online tool providing geographic information to the research and development community of roots, tubers and bananas

26 All reports uploaded to RTB webpage Online comment function are available!

27 Summary Completed reports are available: Communication strategy Sharing with and feedback from stakeholders e.g. SROs (CORAF,ASARECA, IICA, etc.), banana networks, RTB meetings and webpage, social media Publications: RTB working papers, journal papers

28 Lessons learnt: What went well? Successful application of priority assessment approach in a multi-center and multi-crop context (consistent methodology and same set of outputs for each crop) Generated valuable information to guide strategic decision making and inform RTB target setting (rich and detailed data set from expert surveys; data compiled for economic surplus analysis both can be further explored) Participation of a global group of stakeholders (large scale expert surveys, workshops and groups of resource persons) Capacity building of RTB scientists in ex ante impact assessment approaches (crucial especially for Centers with no previous experience in systematic priority assessment)

29 Lessons learnt: how to improve? Careful cross calibration of parameter estimates e.g. to ensure same levels of optimism about scale of adoption and magnitude of effects such as yield increase or cost reductions Expand depth and breadth of impact modeling - incorporate additional methods (e.g. DALY for health impacts) Harmonize & integrate with other RTB activities - Link data collection from field trials and M&E with PA data needs - Better link development of RTB flagships and PA Consistent/continuous involvement of stakeholders - stakeholder feedback on parameter estimates - future use and updating of RTBMaps and Banana mapper - encourage involvement of RTB scientists in (next) PA Validate or cross check with farmers priorities and yield gaps

30 Don t forget to complete survey of opinions about climate resilience research: See:

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32 Thank you for your attention!

33 100 Consortium for Spatial Information (CSI) - CGIAR

34 Online Atlas

35 rtb.cgiar.org/rtbmaps/ Tools RTB Crops Abiotic Biotic Socio-economic Management Social Evaluation sites Trial Sites Special Achievement in GIS Award ESRI International Conference -2013