Accelerating Digitalisation in Emerging Markets OECD EMnet Business Meeting

Transcription

1 Accelerating Digitalisation in Emerging Markets OECD EMnet Business Meeting Alvaro Ortiz PhD Chief Economist China, Turkey and BigData BBVA Research March 218 * The view expressed in this presentation are exclusively my own and coul no represent the one of BBVA.

2 Accelerating Digitalization in Emerging Markets- OECD Emnet Meeting The Digital Catch Up of the Emerging Markets is well alive specially in some regions and technologies Internet penetration levels (216-23) (% of Population older than 15 years old) 216 Fixed Broadband Mobile Broadband Low High The The Emerging Emerging Markets Markets catch Internet up to Catch Internet Up Penetration will accelerate levels in is the ongoing coming years and will accelerate with some in of the EM coming growing years fast and overlapping some technologies 2

3 Accelerating Digitalization in Emerging Markets- OECD Emnet Meeting We will continue to observe rapid growth rates in both fixed and mobile penetration rates Changes in Fixed-Broadband penetration Changes in Mobile Broadband penetration The Emerging Markets Internet Catch Up will accelerate in the coming years with some of EM growing fast and overlapping some technologies 3

4 Percentage of digital banking users in 23 Accelerating Digitalization in Emerging Markets- OECD Emnet Meeting this will facilitate the rapid digitalisation of some sectors. Banking will become Digital really fast A comprehensive view: Digital banking prospects in the next ten years (based on the results of BBVA Research digital banking model)* DEveloped EM Europe EM Latam EM Asia EM Africa&ME Annual median growth rate Source: BBVA Research. Model s results. Further information can be found in the Annex. 4

5 Other important variables Urbanization Income Variables Accelerating Digitalization in Emerging Markets- OECD Emnet Meeting The Banking Digitalisation will be supported by demand & supply forces The revolution of the EM Middle classes is a key factor but Regulation will be also important Main drivers of digital banking (From more important (1) to less important (); based on the results of BBVA Research digital banking model)* More important Other variables Urbanization Income Affluent (High income population) High/Medium middle classes Low middle classes Other GDP effects Density of rural areas Urban population in small cities Urban population in big cities Density of Urban areas Urban population in medium cities Regulatory Quality Tertiary Education Population Median Age Household Size Credit Gini Emerging countries middle classes ( ) (millions) Middle Forecast Classes Revolution Source: BBVA Research. Affluent Medium Middle Class High Middle Class Low Middle Class 5

6 % users of digital banking in 23 Accelerating Digitalization in Emerging Markets- OECD Emnet Meeting there are different realities and perspectives for the Emerging Markets in the next decade EM Digital banking prospects in the next ten years (based on the results of BBVA Research digital banking model)* 1 Emerging Europe 1 Emerging Asia 1 Latam Annual median growth rate

7 mar-15 may-15 jul-15 sep-15 nov-15 ene-16 mar-16 may-16 jul-16 sep-16 nov-16 ene-17 mar-17 may-17 jul-17 sep-17 nov-17 ene-18 Negative Neutral Positive Accelerating Digitalization in Emerging Markets- OECD Emnet Meeting Narratives about Digitalisation will be also key to spur the Digital Animal Spirits & the support the Digital transition to policymakers Media Sentiment on Digitalisation (Digitalisation tone on Different regions ) News Sentiment on Digitalisation Topics 217 (News tone on different Topics) Internet of Things Machine Learning Big Data Artificial Intelligence Emerging Asia US Europe 7

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9 Accelerating Digitalisation in Emerging Markets OECD EMnet Business Meeting Alvaro Ortiz PhD Chief Economist China, Turkey and BigData BBVA Research March 218 * The view expressed in this presentation are exclusively my own and coul no represent the one of BBVA.