The 6 th Biennial AZ China Conference. Program. The AZ China 2018 Conference Sheraton Waigaiqiao Hotel Shanghai, China September 19-21, 2018

Transcription

1 The AZ China 2018 Conference Sheraton Waigaiqiao Hotel Shanghai, China September 19-21, 2018 The 6 th Biennial AZ China Conference Aluminum and Raw Materials Program

2 Conference Theme and Objectives Dear conference attendee, Welcome to AZ China s 6 th biennial conference. Since 2008 in Sanya, and every two years since, AZ China has strived to bring you insight into our industry and markets. When we set the theme for this conference, Rusal was the largest producer of aluminum outside China, China was emerging from its winter heating season cuts, and we were just getting used to this being the year of the dog. China had recently lost 3.7 million tons of capacity due to the ruling that those plants were illegally constructed, due to the lack of Replacement Permits There had been no talk of sanctions or 10% tariffs. But there was enough confusion among industry participants to make us sit up and notice. Even back at the start of the year when we sat down to discuss the conference, we knew that even the most seasoned professionals were struggling to understand the changing rhetoric coming out of China. Sure, we had seen plenty of edicts calling for capacity constraints, and plenty of hot words about fighting pollution, but this year the talk and the walk are coinciding. At this year s conference, we are looking to bring clarity. With Supply Side Reform, environmental protection, tariff wars, anode coke shortages and crazy gyrations in prices, it s more important than ever to be ahead of the curve. This conference would not be possible without the help and support of our major sponsor These are the broad objectives we at AZ China have for this conference. Whatever your own objectives are, we wish you a successful, informative and rewarding conference. Best regards, Paul Adkins AZ China Ltd

3 Wednesday Sept 19 3pm 7pm 5pm 7pm Registration desk open Welcome Reception Thursday Sept Welcome, housekeeping items Paul Adkins Official opening of Conference Ron Knapp, Secretary General, International Aluminium Institute Key note speaker China: Is the Walk Matching the Talk? The main theme of this conference is to bring clarity to the audience about what is going on in China and how China s economic and strategic direction might inform or deform the aluminum industry. Our guest speaker today will look at China s vision for itself, its economic agenda, the role of debt, and its true plans regarding supply side reform and environmental clean-up. How will China s external relations colour its domestic agenda? How will debt change the course of economic growth? What are the greatest risks to continuing growth and prosperity for the industry and for the market? Our guest speaker will give us some clarity on these questions. Key Note Speaker: Anne Stevenson-Yang Morning coffee Morning Session 1: The Big Issues China produces 55% of the world s aluminium, and consumes almost as much. But China has only 25% of the world s population. China also represents the vast proportion of the international trade in the metal. Meantime, various pressures are being put on China to reign in over-capacity and reduce subsidies. Moderator: - Ron Knapp International Aluminum Institute

4 Morning Session 2: Aluminum Technology The recent announcement of a new carbonless technology has caught everyone s attention, but while its potential is huge, other technological advancements have helped reduce carbon consumption, reduce costs and improve efficiency. Our panel today looks at technology and aluminium Lunch Afternoon Session 1: The market It is getting more and more difficult to make money trading aluminum, with increased volatility, tighter credit and tougher rules. But the more that financial players operate in the aluminum market, the more difficult it is for manufacturers to sign longterm contracts. Meantime, the pressure on China to reduce international trade is also growing. How to navigate through the tough times, and will things only get tougher? Afternoon Session 2: Bauxite & Alumina There are many issues need examining in this area. This year China has become an exporter of alumina, but for how long? China has been cooling its primary metal industry, but we are seeing a plethora of new alumina projects what s the end game? China is increasingly relying on Guinea for bauxite, but is it too dependent on one country so far away and with a volatile history? Meantime, China is also cracking down on the domestic bauxite mining sector. What s the outlook for domestic bauxite? : Coffee Break Afternoon Session 4 : The Industry So far, we have heard from market players, traders, investment bankers, and other experts. But what about the industry without them we wouldn t have any aluminium.

5 What are the challenges facing producers today? What innovative solutions are you employing? R&D into future solutions is all very well, but how to improve the key performance indicators today? Current Efficiency, net carbon consumption, iron levels, safety and emissions control, costs, and so on. Afternoon Session 4: Downstream/Recycling There have been some major shifts in the recycled aluminium market, with China reducing the amount of scrap it imports, and improving its own cycling performance. What is the outlook for secondary aluminium? What are the roadblocks that prevent China from doing more with recycling? Will China return to being a major importer of scrap aluminum? The downstream sector gets remarkably little reporting, yet the sector is even more seriously over-capacity than upstream? With so much capacity, what do downstream companies have to do to make profits? Global players are gradually making more inroads into the China market, for instance, SAPA and Novelis. What s the future for more foreign suppliers in China? 4.40 Close of Day 2

6 Friday Morning Welcome and housekeeping items Friday Morning Session 1 Petcoke Supply Despite predictions of a new carbonless technology, the world will need anode petcoke for many years to come. But anode coke is a by-product of the oil refining process, and changes to refineries, their raw materials and the rules that bund them, can have major repercussions for the supply of anode coke. Changes to bunker fuel regulations, technology changes, even geo-political changes can alter the types of crude oil being selected and the products that emerge from the refinery. Our key note speaker will shed light on these issues, and set the scene for our subsequent discussions. Key note speaker: John Auers, Turner Mason & Co Friday Morning Session 2 Anode Coke Anode coke supply security is vital to the aluminum industry, yet gets little focus. Recently however, China s petcoke market has undergone significant changes, with teapot refineries emerging as a major supplier of anode coke. Will this continue? Will Sinopec continue to withdraw from the petcoke market? Will China continue to import the right blends of crude oil to support anode coke production Coffee Break Friday Morning Session 3 Calcined Coke Again this year, AZ China presents the panel of calcining companies, to discuss the issues relating to the CPC industry. The impact of environmental regulations, changing anode coke supply patterns, and smelter specification restrictions how are these issues affecting the industry? Pricing models are also changing. What do you believe is the best model for pricing calcined coke? Plus of course, we will have many questions from the audience.

7 Lunch Friday Afternoon Session 1 - Anodes Only two countries in the world supply merchant anodes. For a smelter considering make or buy options, especially now in an environment where expansions are possible, why should they consider buying anodes? Why not buy CPC, make your own anodes and mitigate risk? Friday Afternoon Session 2 - Anodes We have heard the discussions this morning about anode coke and about calcining, and now Mr Lang s speech on the anode situation, but what do anode consumers thin? And what are the options? China is now building so many new captive anode plants, how will this affect the market? How does a consumer deal with issues such as Winter Heating Season cuts, and what of the move to loosen specifications?

8 Friday Afternoon Session 3 Needle Coke China s efforts in Supply Side Reform and in the environmental push have created an unprecedented squeeze on needle coke, impacting the markets that rely on this product. Needle Coke is needed for the rapidly growing electric vehicle market, but just as that market is taking off, needle coke supply is shrinking. Similar for graphite electrodes and in the cathode block market. How do these markets deal with the lack of supply of needle coke? What are the implications for those who use the products from these industries? Close of Conference and Meet AZ China Before you dash for the airport, come and have a relaxing drink with us. A good chance to give us your feedback on the conference and on our service overall, or to simply unwind and let all the discussions and information sink in. Target speakers: Wei Lingling Anne Stevenson Yang Lauri Greenpeace Dinny McMahon Graeme Train John Garnaut Matt Andreas Glencore? Bill Bishop Tom Orlik