How do we become champions for transforming agri-food systems?

Transcription

1 Rothamsted Research where knowledge grows How do we become champions for transforming agri-food systems? Achim Dobermann icropm 2016, Berlin, 17 March 2016

2 Focus on solutions Start fresh Work differently

3 Mathematical models in agriculture: a quantitative approach to problems in agriculture and related sciences J. France, J. H. M. Thornley Butterworths, 1984, 335 pages 2006 edition, CABI, 928 p. This is a completely rewritten and expanded version of the successful 1984 book of the same name. The objective remains the same: to teach students of agriculture and related ecological problems how to express ideas mathematically and solve the resulting mathematical problem.

4 2004

5 Papers : 903 papers : 3207 papers (78%) Scopus, 12 March 2016; total of 4110 papers from 1980 to 2015

6 INRA USDA ARS University of Florida CSIRO Wageningen UR Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Georgia CIRAD Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences China Agricultural University University of Nebraska - Lincoln Universitat Bonn University of Queensland Michigan State University Indian Agricultural Research Institute IRRI University of Reading Rothamsted Research Scopus, 12 March 2016; total of 4110 papers from 1980 to 2015; top 15 org./inst.

7 Climate models and measurements had now proven the existence of global climate change, Marshall wrote, and the questions for the organization would now be: What do we do about it and how can we find solutions for the climate we will be living with?

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9 China s new policy: National Plan on Sustainable Agricultural Development Five key goals 1 Increasing productivity 5 Increasing ecological functions 2 Protecting land resource 4 Pollution mitigation 3 Increasing water use efficiency MOA, NDRC, MOST, MOF, MOLR, MOEP, MOWR, SFB, May 2015

10 C C C + + +C + + Cropland (million ha) Grassland (million ha) N fertilizer (Tg N) P fertilizer (Tg P) CW C Water use (billion m 3 ) + +C GHG emissions (Tg CO 2e ) + +CW P losses (Tg P) + +C P use efficiency in (%) + +C Nr losses (Tg N) N use efficiency (%) Plant food production (Tg) Animal food production (Tg) Feed production (Tg) Rice Wheat 200 Maize 150 Soybean 100 Vegetables 50 Fruits 0 Milk Egg Mutton Beef Chicken Pork Rice Wheat Maize Soybean Vegetables Grass Lin Ma et al., Assessing pathways to sustainable food production and consumption (China), in subm.

11 Breakthrough technologies which will transform the Irish agri-food and bioeconomy sector Plant and animal genetics Human, animal and soil microbiota Digital technologies New food technologies Value chain system transformation

12 Grain, t/ha at 85 % dry matter Broadbalk: Mean wheat yields and major technology changes, Fallowing Herbicides Liming Fungicide Crusoe st wheat, FYM+N2 (N3 since 2005) 1st wheat, Best NPK Cont. wheat, N3PK Cont. wheat, FYM Continuous wheat, unmanured Red Rostock Red Club Sq. Master Red Standard Sq. Master Cappelle Desprez Flanders Apollo Brimstone Hereward Crusoe Modern Green Revolution short-strawed cultivars

13 Lack of power for deeper explanation: relying on data from conventional agronomic research Poor extrapolation and prediction due to empirical nature Not very useful for breeding and biotech: can t describe the process of reproduction Poor usability. Not usable until it is simple, intuitive, and easy to use. Lack of interactions with other components of the ecosystem. Crop rotation and its effects are rarely reflected. Policy makers find them difficult to understand and use. Query of modelers, March 2016 Most models are outdated by decades in terms of technologies. Younger generations view them as antiques.

14 The biggest challenge in my view is to link plant dynamics to genetics and signalling Scales, moving up scales and partitioning the uncertainty/variability are clearly important issues. I don t think many of our models work very well to be honest, even retrospectively. There are few generic models built upon a robust and mechanistic basis that can be directly used by farmers for guidance on field management Models are often assembled over time with increased complexity added in a stepwise fashion. Modelers in our community rarely seem to work closely with software engineers. Sharing large quantities of data is not a straightforward problem Query of modelers, March 2016

15 Too much of the same? DSSAT STICS APSIM WOFOST Aquastat Ecosys SWIM MONICA SALUS Hybrid Maize MaizSim AgMaize....

16 The relative error averaged over models was 24 38% for the different end-of-season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in-season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics.

17 Problem-oriented cool tool My ideal crop model Universal & modular: integrated systems approach Process-based: no more (genetic) coefficients and calibration Intelligent, self updating and adapting Inter-operable with many data and knowledge sources Flexible, portable software design interactive UI Co-developed and -owned: open innovation & open access

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19 170 papers since 1997

20 Few groups can develop such new models independently. Knowledge and experience across several disciplines Capability of system analysis and model formulation Integration of observational science with system analysis using digital technology Software design, database management and programing Query of modelers, March 2016

21 Genomics, physiology & breeding Social sciences, economics & comms. Soils, nutrients & water Crop modeling Math, data science & software development Pests & agronomy Weather & climate

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23 Impact pathways of UK academics % reporting having taken part in activity in past 3 years Hughes et al., BIS, 2013

24 Start fast stop fast

25 Will CRISPR/CAS9 become the breakthrough tool for modelers?

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27 2030 Keynote icropm 2016: J. Jones, 284 cited papers since 1974 G. Hammer, 166 cited papers since 1978 B. Keating, 54 cited papers since 1979 S. Savary, 83 cited papers since 1986 M. Kropff, 129 cited papers since 1987 A. Dobermann, 109 cited papers since 1994 F. Ewert, 118 cited papers since 1996 A. Challinor, 66 cited papers since 2003 Female? Other regions? Under 40?

28 We are recruiting: Genome Engineering Specialist Molecular Crop Physiologist Quantitative Statistical Genomicist Computational Systems Biologist Systems Agronomist Grazing Livestock Systems Specialist Nutrient Management Specialist Agro-Eco Informatician