Argentina: Investment Opportunities in Agribusiness and Implications of the New Agriculture and Bio-Fuel Economy

Transcription

1 AGRO- T.E Argentina: Investment Opportunities in Agribusiness and Implications of the New Agriculture and Bio-Fuel Economy A Special Multi-Client Analysis and Outlook Provided by Informa Economics, Inc. and AGRO-T.E. September 2007 Over the past five years the world agriculture community has experienced perhaps the most profound changes in its demand base and price structure in at least 50 years. In North America, South America, Europe and virtually every other region of the world there have been strategic initiatives aimed at lessening the dependence on fossil fuels by tapping into agricultural resources. Underlying this new demand base are on-going increases in consumptive demand in high population countries such as China and India. As a result, global prices for basic agricultural products have risen to a new level and notwithstanding the usual market ups and downs, appear to be at a plateau higher than that experienced in the past 20 years. This new demand base (and subsequently higher price levels) has created a need to examine the major agricultural production areas of the world and try to identify areas where investment and development is needed to either shift production to a needed area or bring new production on line to meet demand. To date, much of the focus of this type of activity has been on Brazil. However, Brazil s neighbor to the south, Argentina, also will play a major role in this development effort and there will be many opportunities for direct investment in Argentina that will be of interest to global investors and players in agricultural markets. Informa Economics, Inc. (Informa) is pleased to partner with AGRO-T.E Consultants (AGRO-T.E) on this exclusive multi-client study effort that will delve into the detail of the Argentine agribusiness economy. Please join Informa and AGRO-T.E in this comprehensive multi-client study that will examine Argentina s agriculture and food, agriculture and renewable fuels sectors in great detail which will provide strategic ideas for your organization s business planning, policy development and longer term strategic positioning.

2 Why Not Argentina? Background The escalating demand for agricultural products is creating incentives and opportunities to expand production of agricultural goods and develop the needed infrastructure on a global scale. At the center of much of the investment activity is South America, a region rich in potential agricultural production. A major force in the future potential of South American agriculture is Argentina. While Brazil attracts much of the interest with respect to developing this region, consider: Over the past 10 years, while Brazilian soybean production has not quite doubled, soybean production in Argentina has increased almost 240%. After the United States, Argentina is the next largest exporter of corn with Argentine corn exports more than doubling over the past decade. Argentina is by far the largest exporter of soybean meal and soybean oil in the world. In the case of both soybean oil and meal, exports from Argentina have more than doubled in the past ten years. With respect to wheat, Argentina is consistently one of the top five exporters in the world. More Room For Expansion? Clearly, the expansion in Argentine agriculture and related activities has been going on for some time. The question is, given the current price incentive, is there more room for expansion? If there is, how will it play out and where are the opportunities for industry participants, service providers, investors, transportation providers and others? Huge Export Potential? A unique aspect of the situation in Argentina compared to other large potential agricultural producers is the relatively small domestic consumptive base. This creates a tremendous opportunity for export expansion. Moreover, while in need of improvement, Argentina possesses an existing network of river transportation, roads and railroads that can provide a platform for expansion and further investment. Complementing this network is the natural advantage of being able to bring deep-water ocean vessels up the Platte River to the very heart of Argentine agricultural production. How Much More Expansion? All of the facts described above are known aspects of Argentine agriculture. What is unknown is how much further Argentina can expand and where such expansion might occur. There is certainly more land than can be brought into 2 AGRO- T.E

3 production, but how much more? Grassland areas of Argentina that currently support cattle grazing operations are an unrealized opportunity, but where will the cattle move to? Will they go to drier areas for grazing, or will Argentina develop a corn fed cattle feeding industry with the meat going to export? What Role Technology? With respect to technology, while soybean yields in Argentina are roughly the same as in the US, corn yields in Argentina lag those in the US by approximately 30%. Is there an opportunity to boost production in Argentina by applying more technology (seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, etc)? Value-Added Opportunities? In the value added area, Argentina has had amazing success in expanding its soybean processing industry. Are there opportunities in other agricultural processing industries? And what about livestock production? With such a strong production base in feedgrains and protein meal, it might be possible to consider expanded production of beef, pork and poultry. Finally, with respect to valueadded industries, the future role of biofuels in Argentina must be considered. Is there a domestic market for these products? Can an Argentine, corn based ethanol industry compete in export markets with Brazilian ethanol or is Argentina s comparative advantage in biodiesel? The answers to the questions posed above are critical inputs to understanding where the opportunities in South American agriculture are and what steps need to be taken to capitalize on these opportunities. Methodology This study will entail a blend of desk research and interpersonal contact. Both firms, Informa and AGRO-T.E, are well known for their detailed, high quality analytic work and by collaborating with respect to data sources, analytic approaches and the vast experience of all the analysts, the study will be predicated on solid historical evidence and well vetted scenarios. In addition, AGRO-T.E is a well-respected Argentine agriculture and food research and consulting firm and in conjunction with Informa s more than 30 years of business contacts and on-site evaluations of Argentina s agriculture sector, will enable the study team to identify and personally interview select industry thought leaders in Argentina as a cross-reference for our analytic work. The unique combination of solid analytic/desk research with industry insights from the actual participants in the sector will generate a unique strategic document that will benefit participating clients long into the future. 3 AGRO- T.E

4 The Proposal To help clients understand the dramatic adjustments before the global agriculture, food and renewable fuels industry as well as the interactive role of the US and Argentina, Informa and AGRO-T.E propose the following study outline. This study, when complete, will support your organization s ability to plan future investments and manage the risks of doing business in today s and tomorrow s global marketplace. Moreover, policymakers will find this study to be the necessary foundation for fact-based policy ideas and assessments. The final study work plan will reflect inputs and suggestions for emphasis from study participants on key areas of the study s focus with the proposed study outline described below. Study Outline 1.0 Macro Economic Environment 1.1 Past Economic Performance 1.2 Direction of Macro Trends (GDP, inflation, etc.) 1.3 Currency Situation 1.4 Tax Environment Impacts on Agribusiness 1.5 Political Environment 1.6 Energy Situation 1.7 Agricultural Policy 2.0 Core Agricultural Production Base 2.1 Acreage Trends 2.2 Yield Trends 2.3 Commodity Production; 5 and 10 Year Outlook Crop Competitiveness by Area Crop Area Limitations by Area Potential From New Land and Pasture Cost of Production History and Trends by Region 2.4 Domestic Use Overview Feed Use Human Consumption Renewable Fuel (see also Section 3.0) 2.5 Export Outlook 3.0 Renewable Energy Situation 3.1 Ethanol; 5 and 10 Year Outlook 3.2 Biodiesel; 5 and 10 Year Outlook 3.3 Impact on Commodity Balance Sheets 4 AGRO- T.E

5 4.0 Agricultural Infrastructure 4.1 Roads 4.2 Rail 4.3 River 4.4 Ports 4.5 Identification of Major Bottlenecks 4.6 Outlook for Development 5.0 Agribusiness Structure 5.1 Grain Handling 5.2 Soy Processing 5.3 Grain Processing 5.4 Biodiesel and Ethanol 5.5 Beef Production/Processing 5.6 Pork Production/Processing 5.7 Poultry Processing 5.8 Fruits and Vegetables 6.0 Summary Definition of Major Trends 6.1 Economic 6.2 Political 6.3 Agricultural Production and Trade 6.4 Agribusiness Structure and Development 6.5 Transport and Infrastructure 6.6 Livestock Production and Processing 7.0 Summary and Definition of Major Investment Opportunities Primary Study Deliverables Upon initiation of this multi-client study, participating organizations will have an opportunity to provide input via and teleconference, whereby, each participant will request areas of additional analysis and focus. The study team will, in turn, assess its ability to deliver such requests and respond accordingly. Approximately five months after the study s kick-off meeting, the study team will provide a report followed by a daylong discussion of study results. Study Schedule Study Begins: September 2007 Deliver Study Report: December 2007 Study Report Client Seminar: January AGRO- T.E

6 Project Timing and Cost The project will commence in September 2007 and will conclude in December The cost for Informa and AGRO-T.E clients is US$7,500 and US$10,500 for non-clients. One-half of the project cost (US$3,750 for clients and US$5,250 for non-clients) is due upon project initiation and one-half is due upon delivery of the study report. Client travel to the presentation meeting is at the client s expense and is not included in the study s professional fees. Additional travel and related expenses for company-specific meetings after presentation of the results to the whole group of subscribers will be billed separately. Who Should Buy This Study? Because of the far-reaching impacts that Argentina has on global agriculture and food, a broad range of companies from many sectors as well as policymakers will find this study valuable. Sectors where this study will be relevant include: Traders and merchants Processors Feed manufacturers Technology firms Transportation providers Fertilizer and chemical firms Banks and financial institutions Livestock companies Seed and genetics firms Infrastructure and engineering firms 6 AGRO- T.E

7 Informa Economics The Study Team: A Unique Collaboration Informa Economics, Inc., formerly Sparks Companies, Inc., is the world leader in broad-based agribusiness consulting and commodity market analysis. Founded in 1977, the company now serves more than 750 firms and institutions worldwide. In December 2003, Sparks was acquired by T&F Informa plc, a global business information group. Informa Economics is part of T&F Informa s AGRA division, which also includes F.O. Licht, Agra Europe, Agra CEAS Consulting and Agra USA, creating an international network of services and clients with offices in the US, Canada, the United Kingdom, Belgium and Germany. Informa Economics offers several broad categories of services: Agricultural Commodity Market Analysis; Management Consulting for Agribusiness; Education and Training; Newsletters and Other Publications; and Energy Market Analysis. Multi-client studies such as the one described in this prospectus are a regular feature of Informa s overall product offerings. In past multi-client studies, Informa has accurately predicted the rising demand in China for agricultural products and goods and incorporates into its on-going commodity analysis the dynamics of the Chinese agricultural sector. This work enables Informa to be uniquely positioned to be a collaborator with AGRO-T.E on this study. Our Mission: " To Be a Vital Force in the Success of Agriculture, Food, Energy and Transportation Interests Around the World." Informa Biographies Richard S. Andersen, Executive Vice President. As co-executive of Informa's Livestock, Meat, Poultry and Dairy activities, Dr. Andersen's primary responsibilities include research, client service and consulting. Prior to joining the company, Dr. Andersen was a regional extension economist for the Alberta Agriculture Department, a livestock market analyst and policy advisor to the Alberta Minister of Agriculture, and a research economist for Cook Industries, Inc. He received his bachelor's and master's degrees in agriculture from the University of Alberta and his doctorate degree in agricultural economics from The Ohio State University. 7 AGRO- T.E

8 Bradley C. Anderson, Senior Vice President. Mr. Anderson is a co-executive of Informa's Crops Group and is primarily responsible for oilseeds, protein and vegetable oil research. Mr. Anderson has served as Informa's feed grain analyst and the research coordinator of data and technology. Prior to joining the company, he was a feed grain analyst in USDA's Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service. He also served as legislative assistant to US Senator Rudy Boschwitz and US Representative Vin Weber, both of Minnesota. Mr. Anderson received his bachelor's degree in agronomy from North Dakota State University and his master's in agricultural economics from the University of Minnesota. Donald G. Frahm, Senior Vice President. Dr. Frahm has been with Informa Economics (formerly Sparks Companies, Inc.) since 1980 where his primary responsibilities are acreage and production research, client service and consulting as well as long-term forecasting and planning. Prior to joining the company, Dr. Frahm worked with two grain merchandising and brokerage companies and as a senior economist with the American Soybean Association. Earlier, he held positions at the University of Nebraska and Purdue University. He received his bachelor's degree at The Ohio State University and his master's and doctorate degrees from Purdue University, all in agricultural economics. Mickey J. Luth, Senior Commodity Analyst. Mr. Luth is primarily responsible for the company's feed grain effort but also contributes to all of the work in the Informa Economics grains and oilseeds fundamental economic research and analysis area. Prior to coming to Informa, Mr. Luth spent 10 years as the director of research for LaiFa Group, an introducing broker located in Lisle, Ill., where his work focused on grains and oilseeds research as well as development of one of the leading producer hedge programs, as highlighted in Top Producer magazine. Prior to this work, Mr. Luth spent four years as a grains analyst for Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner and Smith, and six years as an analyst covering corn, wheat and the soy complex at Shearson-Lehman Brothers, both located in Chicago, Ill. He also has traveled to Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay. Mr. Luth received his bachelor s degree at the University of Wisconsin and his master's degree at the University of Illinois, both in agricultural economics, with his master's specializing in futures marketing and price analysis. William C. Motes, Executive Vice President. Dr. Motes is co-executive manager of the Informa Economics Washington, D.C., office, where his primary responsibilities include client consulting for international commercial clients and development projects. Formerly, he was a principal member of Economic Perspectives, Inc. and served as director of policy analysis for the Secretary of Agriculture ( ). Dr. Motes was associate director of USDA's Budget and Program Evaluation Office and also was legislative assistant for agriculture for US Senator Dick Clark. He holds degrees in agricultural economics from Kansas State University and received his doctorate in agricultural economics from Iowa State University. 8 AGRO- T.E

9 Juan E. Sacoto, Senior Vice President. With Informa Economics since 1997, Mr. Sacoto is the leader of Informa's Financial Consulting and heads the biodiesel consulting practice with his primary responsibility including research and analyses for international and domestic consulting clients. His work often involves market assessment, financial and competitive analyses, economic modeling, strategy, international economic development, and economic impact and risk management studies. Mr. Sacoto has extensive experience working in the renewable fuels industry, in particular biodiesel, and across several agricultural, food and related markets including grains, livestock, fisheries, fertilizers, and fruits and vegetables. He also has extensive practical experience evaluating agribusiness industries and agricultural markets in Mexico, South America and Eastern Europe. He is fluent in Spanish and has broad crosscultural training. Prior to joining the company, he worked as a financial and equity analyst. He received his bachelor's degree in finance from Jacksonville State University and his master's in international business administration from The University of Memphis. Bruce A. Scherr, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer. Dr. Scherr has been with Informa Economics, Inc. (formerly Sparks Companies, Inc.) since 1987 in several executive capacities including President and CEO. In addition, he is an Advisor for Metalmark Capital LLC, a private equity fund. Formerly he was president of Sparks, Jacobs, Scherr, Inc. (SJS), a sister company to Sparks, and president of Agri-Commodities, Inc., an agriculture consulting firm based in Andover, Massachusetts, which was acquired by SJS. Prior to forming Agri-Commodities, Dr. Scherr was a divisional vice president at Data Resources, Inc., where he developed and utilized for the public and private sectors the first commercially available econometric model for US agriculture. Dr. Scherr received his bachelor's degree from Rutgers University and his master's and doctorate degrees from Purdue University, all in agricultural economics. Currently, he is a member of the Board of Trustees of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) and serves as a member of the Global Strategy Institute Advisory Council of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He served as a member of the Board of Directors for Desert STAR Inc., an electrical transmission Independent System Operator for the Desert Southwest from January 2000 through February In addition, Dr. Scherr has served as a member of The University of Tennessee s (UT) Institute of Agriculture Agricultural Development Board and UT s Committee for the Future. He was recently named a 2007 Distinguished Agriculture Alumni from Purdue University and he is a member of several honorary research and agricultural societies, a member of the National FFA Foundation Sponsors Board 2000 through 2001 and a former advisor to the President's Council of Economic Advisers and National Aeronautics and Space Administration. 9 AGRO- T.E

10 Thomas P. Scott, President. Mr. Scott has been with Informa for 17 years with the majority of that time being the head of the Informa Economics Memphisbased Project Consulting Group. Mr. Scott's specialized work has included business strategy, agribusiness economic development, feasibility and site selection work, as well as various market analyses. In addition to his work in North America, Mr. Scott has extensive experience in the agribusiness sectors of Central Europe, Southeast Asia and South America. He has been involved in many training programs developed and delivered by Informa Economics. Prior to joining the company, he had various assignments in management, trading, logistics and merchandising with Continental Grain Company. He received his bachelor's degree in agricultural economics and business from Cornell University and a master's degree in business administration from the Amos Tuck School of Business Administration at Dartmouth College where he was an Amos Tuck Scholar. Joe F. Somers, Senior Consultant. Mr. Somers is responsible for economic analyses and agricultural policy consultant work out of the Informa Economics Washington, D.C., office. He came to the company with 27+ years experience with USDA s Foreign Agricultural Service as a foreign service officer and as a private sector consultant. While at FAS, he served in Brazil and Argentina and extensively traveled on FAS overseas fact-finding trips. In Washington, D.C., he supervised and conducted world supply/demand and trade policy analyses for a wide range of commodities and managed publication of several analytic circulars. Most recently, he was director of research and marketing for the GIC Group, Alexandria, Virginia, where he was responsible for business development and economic and market analyses. He received his bachelor s degree in political science from Northeastern University, Boston, and master s in agricultural economics from the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. Rob M. Westmoreland, Executive Vice President. Mr. Westmoreland's responsibilities include overseeing the Informa Economics grains, oilseeds, and other crop and food ingredient research and analyses functions and client services. His many food and agribusiness consulting assignments include commodity planning, price risk management and business strategic planning for a wide spectrum of US and international food and agribusiness companies. Previously, Mr. Westmoreland was group vice president and general manager of Pillsbury Industrial Foods. His management experience includes economic analyses and commodity risk management, business strategic planning, marketing, and general management in food processing. He is an economics graduate of Rice University and of the Stanford University Graduate School of Business. 10 AGRO- T.E

11 AGRO-T.E Consultores (Consultants) AGRO-T.E is a leading consulting firm specialized in the Argentinean agriculture sector. Founded in 2006 and formed by a multidisciplinary group of highly recognized and long experienced associated professionals, AGRO- T.E. quickly became a trusted source of analysis in food and agribusiness issues in Argentina. AGRO-T.E Consultores (Consultants) advises clients on a broad range of economic, marketing, financial, strategic planning and regulatory issues and is organized under three operational divisions. Consulting, Market Analysis, and Education and Training. Clients include farmers, grain dealers, agricultural input suppliers, trade companies, corporations, cooperatives, trade associations and investors looking for business opportunities. Biographies Sebastian Olivero, Founder-Senior Consultant. Mr. Sebastian Olivero is in charge of the Agricultural commodity market analysis area of AGRO-T.E, consulting projects and educational and training courses. He is responsible for handling farming investment portfolios and the commercial face of client companies. He also participates in budgeting and sales planning and provides clients with expertise in strategies on commercial activities in Spot Markets, Futures, and Agricultural Options in the local (Argentinean) and international (Chicago Board of Trade) Markets. Mr. Olivero has given dissertations and advanced training courses on Analysis of Grain Markets, Strategies of Commercialization, and Risk Management, among others. He is the author of numerous articles published in mainstream newspapers and specialized magazines. Previously he worked as Financial Analyst for E-Trade Securities, Inc in the U.S.A., as Senior Agribusiness Consultant for Sparks Inc. in its Argentinean subsidiary and as an Agribusiness Consultant in Australia and New Zealand. He has a bachelor s degree in Agricultural Economy from the University of Belgrano in Argentina and Graduate Studies in Administration & Management at Harvard University in the United States of America.. Juan Cayetano Olivero, Founder-Senior Consultant. Mr. Juan C. Olivero is in charge of the Statistics, Economy and Politics Area of AGRO-T.E, consulting projects and educational and training courses. Prior to forming AGRO-T.E. was in charge of the Argentinean National Bureau of Statistics for five and a half years. While he was in charge of this position, he fulfilled missions in the United States of America, United Kingdom, France and Germany 11 AGRO- T.E

12 and was in charge of organizing the National Census of Population and Housing and Farming. Subsequently, he held the position of Director of the Economy Department of Arthur Andersen Argentina, and after that, Ernst & Young, for 20 years. In this capacity he advised farming, industrial and service companies. In the international field, he was President of the Organization Committee of the Statistics International Institute. He was President of the VIII Inter-American Conference of Statistics and Vice-president of the Commission for National Statistics Improvement of America. Up to now, he has given more than 300 lectures in Argentina and Brazil about global economic framework and the situation and outlook of different economic sectors, especially farming and mining. In the academic field, he was Assistant, Associate and Regular Professor of the National University of Buenos Aires and a professor at the Escuela Superior del Comando Aéreo (Superior School of the Air Force Command). He is the author of numerous articles published in the main newspapers and specialized magazines. That experience was useful in writing the book Paradojas, Contradicciones y Dualidades Argentinas (Argentine Paradoxes, Contradictions and Dualities) published in At the present he is finishing the book: Trayectoria, Futuro y Valor del Sector Rural Argentino (Course, Future and Value of the Argentine Rural Sector), which will be introduced in 2008 at the AACREA Asociación Argentina de Consorcios Regionales Agrícolas (Argentine Association of Farming Regional Partnerships) and other similar Organizations. He has a bachelor s degree in Economy from the National University of Buenos Aires. He also graduated as Farming Technician at the Instituto Agropecuario del Litoral (Littoral Farming Institute). He specialized in the analysis of short term economy at the Escuela de Organización Industrial de Madrid, España (Industrial Organization School in Madrid), Spain. 12 AGRO- T.E

13 ENROLLMENT FORM Yes, I want to participate in the special multi-client study, entitled Argentina: Investment Opportunities in Agribusiness and Implications of the New Agriculture and Bio-Fuel Economy. The cost of the study for current Informa and AGRO-T.E clients will be US$7,500 and US$10,500 for non-clients. One-half will be billed upon initiation of the study and the remaining one-half upon my acceptance of the final report. Return Form to Informa Economics Via Fax to (901) Please have someone contact me to provide further information. Name: Signature: Title: Company: Street Address: City, State, Zip: Telephone: Fax: Address: Please feel free to contact us with questions: Mr. Tom Scott President Informa Economics, Inc. 775 Ridge Lake Blvd., Suite 400 Memphis, TN Phone: Fax: tom.scott@informaecon.com 13 AGRO- T.E