SEEDS OF CHANGE: SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE AS A PATH TO PROSPERITY OF THE WESTERN BALKANS

Transcription

1 SEEDS OF CHANGE: SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE AS A PATH TO PROSPERITY OF THE WESTERN BALKANS Tomislav Tomašević, Vedran Horvat Heinrich Böll Stiftung Croatia

2 Study basic info Publisher: Heinrich Böll Stiftung Croatia Znaor, D. Landau, S. (2014) Seeds of Change: Sustainable Agriculture as a Path to Prosperity for the Western Balkans Leading author Darko Znaor, indpendent consultant on organic agriculture, Wageningen University 3-years research, dozen experts, 150 feedbacks Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro Twin study on sustainable energy in the Western Balkans Published in 2014 after extreme floods have hit Western Balkans

3 Focus of the study Case scenario planning until % organic agriculture Three bechmarks in farming and fertiliser industry labour force employed, food quantity produced and real value added Accounting for positive and negative externalities of conventional (high input) and organic agriculture Positive (biodiversity, ecosystem services etc.) and negative externalities (pollution of water and soil, climate change etc.) Methodological problem of accounting externalities GHGs calculated - carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) 33,6 EUR per 1 tonne of CO2 eq (EEA) Soil carbon sequestration 133 EUR per 1 tonne of C (Znaor, 2008)

4 Znaor, 2014

5 Croatian agriculture In 2009 agricultural sector in Croatia accounted for 3,7% of Croatian GDP but for 14% of working hours of the population Annual Work Units in Croatian agriculture are % of unusued agricultural land in Croatia Domestic market (69 mil EUR in 2010) demand for organic products is bigger than market supply Family agricultural holdings employ 95% of workforce in agriculture Land under organic agriculture in Croatia is 2,4% of total utilised agricultural area (EUROSTAT, 2012) comparing with 18,6 % in Austria Estimated number of farms is , estimated number of commercial farms is , estimated number of organic farms is 1.449, estimated number of commercial organic farms is 850 (Karoglan, 2012)

6 Inequality in Croatian agriculture Agri subsidies in 2009 were 327 EUR per ha, which is 16% higher than the average amount of subsidies for producers in the 15 old EU Member States and 267% more than those of the 12 new EU Member States Big inequality in subsidies - The 0.2 % of the biggest farm operators consume 25 % of all direct payments in agriculture

7 MEUR Economic benchmark for baseline RVA Public expend. Envir. costs GVA 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,501 1, ,309 1, , B&H HR 6 MNE SER Znaor, 2014

8 MEUR Economic bechmark for all scenarios until 2050 RVA Public expend. Envir. costs GVA 7,000 6,366 6,000 5,000 4,331 4,260 3,931 4,866 4,000 3,000 3,635 3,583 3,583 2,000 1, , ,000 Baseline BAU ECO ECO+ Znaor, 2014

9 All benchmarks for all scenarios Baseline BAU ECO ECO Economic performance 100 Employment Food production 90 ECO+ ECO BAU Baseline Znaor, 2014

10 Eco Scenario - results 100% of utilised agricultural land under organic agriculture 10% more employment than baseline while business as usual scenario will have 10% less employment than baseline Same yields as baseline scenario (not neccessarily the case in Western Europe) but with different crop/livestock mix (8% more cereal units but for 50% more livestock)

11 Current situation woth organic farming systems BH CRO MNE SR B Znaor and Landau, 2014

12 Key conclusions of the study Agriculture in the Western Balkans does matter Current agricultural policy provide a low profile support to organic farming Current farming does not create any real value added Key is to build soil fertility and human and social capital Transition to organic farming provides more jobs Transition to organic farming produces more food Going organic is greener Going organic is more profitable Businness as usual is not an option

13 Challenges to policy change Agrobusiness monopoly Fertiliser industry giants (consuming ¼ of natural gas in Croatia) False pricing signals for food Liberalised market conditions within EU Current monetary policy and austerity measures Cooperatives image in post-socialist countries

14 Download the study Direct link future.com/media/boell/filer_public/69/c4/69c4d6c a-9a65- fdd65c22a57b/hbs_unlocking_the_future_seeds_of_chang e_020614_web.pdf Indirect link