TECHNO-ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF CCS DEPLOYMENT SCENARIOS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA AND BALKAN REGIONS

Transcription

1 Addressing Barriers to Carbon Capture and Storage in Developing Countries September 7, 2011 TECHNO-ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF CCS DEPLOYMENT SCENARIOS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA AND BALKAN REGIONS NATALIA KULICHENKO-LOTZ WORLD BANK

2 Part of World Bank Study Objective: Investigate the potential and effects of CCS in power Sector

3 Regional case studies Southern Africa and Balkans selected Reliance on fossil fuel use Regional energy and electricity network interdependency Potential to establish CCS regional networks linking CO2 emitting sources and sequestration sites across different countries within the region Countries selected: Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia, and South Africa Albania, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Serbia, and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

4 Method 1. Select appropriate model - Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental impact (MESSAGE) 2. Decide on time horizon: Collect cost and technical data as inputs into model Data on existing and potential future power plants Data on potential CO 2 storage sites 4. Select Scenarios

5 Scenarios No Policy Scenario Availability of revenues from EOR/ECBM from CCS CO 2 prices Forced CCS targets All Scenarios are region specific Sample of results included in presentation all results are in report

6 Sample of Results Southern Africa Electricity generation No Policy Scenario Existing coal

7 Sample of Results Southern Africa Electricity generation No Policy Scenario Baseline Integrated resource plan Existing coal Existing coal

8 Sample of Results Southern Africa Electricity generation No Policy Scenario CO 2 price: 100US$/ton Existing coal Existing coal

9 Sample of Results Southern Africa Electricity generation No Policy Scenario CO 2 price: 100US$/ton Existing coal plants phase out Coal and gas with CCS make up 16% of electricity portfolio by 2030 CO2 stored in South Africa, Botswana, Namibia and Mozambique

10 Sample of Results Southern Africa Annual CO 2 emissions No Policy Scenario has greatest emissions 100$/ton CO2 price Scenario has dramatically lower emissions (cumulative savings of 2,496Mton by 2030 compared to No Policy Expansion)

11 Sample of Results Southern Africa Average generation costs No Policy Scenario has lowest cost 100$/ton CO2 price Scenario has highest cost

12 Sample of Results Balkans No Policy Scenario Electricity generation If EOR/ECBM revenues available, CCS is built. EOR is utilized in Croatia and Albania Fossil No CCS

13 Sample of Results Balkans Electricity generation No Policy Scenario with EOR/ECBM revenues available 100$/ton CO 2 price Fossil No CCS Fossil No CCS

14 Sample of Results Balkans Electricity generation No Policy Scenario with EOR/ECBM revenues available 100$/ton CO 2 price No Policy Scenario: if EOR/ECBM available, some CCS built 100$/ton CO2 price Scenario: By 2030, all power sector is low carbon. 70% of generation portfolio has CCS (coal and gas) Fossil No CCS Fossil No CCS

15 Sample of Results Balkans Annual CO 2 emissions No Policy Scenario has greatest emissions 100$/ton CO2 price Scenario has dramatically lower emissions (cumulative savings of 838 Mton by 2030 compared to No Policy Expansion)

16 Sample of Results Balkans Average generation costs No Policy Scenario has lowest cost 100$/ton CO2 price Scenario has highest cost

17 Key Results Depending on the scenario and region, CCS could be economical In most cases CO 2 prices result in greater deployment of CCS 100$/ton CO 2 results in 16% of electricity portfolio with CCS in Southern Africa 100$/ton CO2 results in 70% of electricity portfolio with CCS in Balkans Because plants in SA are dry-cooled, so more expensive. In Balkans, CCS could be economical without additional policies if EOR/ECBM revenues are available (EOR in Croatia and Albania)

18 Key Results - Continued In the Balkans, it is cheapest to build CCS in Kosovo since coal development options are cheapest there. Within the Southern African region, South Africa has cheapest storage options. If there are CO 2 prices it could be economical to export CO 2 for storage throughout the region, as well as storing in South Africa.

19 THANK YOU WORLD BANK SEPTEMBER