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1 August 2016 Dear Madam, Sir, Herewith the latest Trouw Price Trends on Market Report of week 29 (August 2016). Our Market Report contains useful information for your procurement and purchasing team as well. In case you would like us to send it directly to your team from now on, please inform us by sending us their addresses and their function. We would be pleased to facilitate this for you. Hopefully this information will be sufficient. With this information we shares our goals to enable customers to purchase sustainable nutritional solutions, we continued engage with our partners in the feed-to-food value chain to establish, control and manage systems for sourcing sustainable raw materials in a responsible way. In each issue of our Trouw Price Trends information we are pleased to keep sharing the latest updates on the world grain market as well as raw materials information with you, our prestigious customers. For further references please visit the following links 1. Feed Outlook July Market Perspective July Grain Market Report July Wasde Market Report July 2016
2 IMPORTANT INFORMATION Due to the expired product registration, Trouw Nutrition Indonesia will not be able to import BASF products like vitamins and pigments starting in August BASF is in the progress to renew it. We expect it to be done in end of 2016 however the process might be prolonged to Q Together we will have stronger partnership in exchanging information to keep our industry growing and have more sustainable future. With our best regards, Tr ouw Nut r i t i on Team
3 SBM, Corn, Wheat Futures
4 Raw Material Price US Projected U.S. supplies of wheat for 2016/17 are raised 180 million bushels this month on increased production and slightly higher beginning stocks. A 5-million-bushel decrease in imports is minimally offsetting. Production is raised throughout the wheat belt. Winter wheat yields are projected to be record high, and spring wheat yields are slightly above average. Feed and residual use for 2016/17 is raised 100 million bushels to 300 million on the larger supplies and increased wheat price competitiveness with corn. U.S. exports are raised 25 million bushels to 925 million, which would be the highest in 3 years. Ending stocks are raised 55 million bushels to 1,105 million bushels, the highest since 1988/89. With the large increase in carryover stocks, the season-average farm price is lowered $0.20 per bushel at the midpoint to a projected range of $3.40 to $4.20. Corn ending stocks for 2016/17 are projected 73 million bushels higher. Projected season average prices received by producers for 2016/17 are lowered for all the feed grains, with corn down 10 cents to $3.10 to $3.70 per bushel. For 2015/16 the corn price is lowered 5 cents at the midpoint to a range of $3.60 to $3.70 per bushel. Soybean exports for 2015/16 are projected at 1,795 million bushels, up 35 million reflecting shipments and outstanding sales through early July. Residual use is reduced based on indications from the June 30 Grain Stocks report. Soybean ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected at 350 million bushels, down 20 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2016/17 is projected at $8.75 to $10.25 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price is projected at $325 to $365 per short ton, up 5 dollars on both ends. The soybean oil price is projected at 29.5 to 32.5 cents per pound, down 1 cent on both ends of the range.
5 SBM, Corn, Wheat Futures
6 Quiet market. This due to summer holiday and everyone is covered for q3. Very quiet market in Scandinavia the past weeks, but the Danish producers are reporting some trades for various destinations. Asking prices remain at DKK for 72% standard fishmeal (USD 1.835), but reasonable bids could maybe have a fair chance. Limited activity also production wise but there are being landed some sprats now and then, this week tons according to official registrations. The Icelanders are reporting of somewhat increased activity and improving mackerel catches (so far tons officially reported against the tons quota). From the start of the season most of the fish has been round frozen and thus limited amounts (trimmings) for meal and oil. The Icelandic producers are generally well committed and have not been active in the market lately. The Norwegian North Sea trawlers have also this week reported a few thousand tons for meal and oil; +/ tons each of blue whiting and Norway pout in addition to a few hundred tons of other species/by-catch.
7
8 Market developments Powders After the fast increase of prices last couple of weeks we see stable prices are stepping in to buy still at current low levels. Less product is offered to Intervention and more product is offered into the market which will cause stable prices or even slightly lower prices. Sufficient product available and weak demand. Producers can still offer product for intervention which will avoid SMP prices to go below 1700 euro and therefore the max price for Feed will be 16750/1700 euro. But what will happen if the next intervention level of MT is reached and in the meantime milk prices are also increasing. Will Brussel keep on increasing Intervention volumes? Market developments General What will happen with the milk production if the Milk prices are increasing. The first company in the Netherlands already increased their milk price. As mentioned before more companies will follow this trend. Will famers react and produce more? Current weather circumstances are good for the milk production. Temperature is good and sufficient moisture. Worldwide prices are getting very close to EU prices, so there is a balance in prices. Market developments liquid Because SMP food prices are above intervention levels, There won t be offered much product into intervention, but producers will try to sell more into the open market which can have a negative impact on the prices. Also SMC prices will trade slightly lower, because levels of last week 1600/1700 euro, was too high to justify SMP production. Current SMC levels are still attractive to sell into the open market. Liquid whey prices are also following powder prices quickly. What will happen next couple of week with SMC prices? A lot will depend on the coming milk production in EU and what will happen with intervention stocks the coming weeks. I expect prices around 100/125 euro below SMP food prices.
9 Vitamin E price
10 Lysine Firming up, due to higher soya prices and strong domestic demand in China while in other regions are stable to good. Several producers get lower output as result of summer season. Price level around USD FOB from China. Methionine Stable. Due to the strong recovery in Chinese demand prices stabilized over the month. Several maintenance stops have been scheduled and together with the improved demand from China allowing this stabilization and increase. Price range is USD FOB China. Threonine Firming up. Chinese production is well sold in July, new quotations will be higher. Local traders are also increase prices. Some delay in shipments seen for July, firming the market further. Price is about USD FOB China Tryptophan Firming up. CJ announced a longer maintenance period to update their production facility. Julong back in the market with stable prices at higher level. Eppen and Meihua hardly participate in this market, as well Evonik that has maintenance shutdown and with current market stocks well sold on Q3. Demand stable, but expect to improve with the higher commodity prices. Price is about USD 9-10 FOB China.
11 Lysine price
12 Methionine price
13 Vit A price is still remain at high. Each manufacturer still facing citral supply problem. BASF as one of citral supplier has start running but the capacity still far below normal. Moreover Chinese factories will be shut down for around 2 months as a preparation for G20. Strong prediction that market will be short of vit A in Q3 and Q4. Price offered from stockiest/trader in China is about USD Vit B1 mono price is uptrend, in summer season Chinese suppliers are stop their production for maintenance; and it will be prolonged as one of the impact of G20. This may lead to shortage on supply. One of big supplier in China (Xinfu) is not offering. Current price level is at USD Vit B2 price is firming. Most of main suppliers can t run full capacity due to environment protection factor. All Chinese suppliers reduced the output. Summer is hot and hard to control benefit of production; cost of production is going up. Production will stop for the whole August, since environmental protection equipment needs to be checked and repaired. Supply also influenced by the flooding that impact Guangji s production and logistics. Price now ranging at USD Vit B3 (Niacinamide) price is showing a though competition due to market share fighting from producers. Producers are pushing to take material immediately. A New producer (Hongda) is entering the market, this put more pressure on price.. Price about USD Vit B4 ( Choline chloride) price is uptrend, current EO price (raw material to produce CC) has increased three times from end of June. TMA price also increased on early of July.
14 Calpan price is stable at high side. Due to the effect of G20 and summer period several factories will go into a longer maintenance than normal. Price is about USD Vit B6 price is firming up. Chinese suppliers will stop production for maintenance and G20. One of the factory in China will not produce until October. Some of big producers are not offering at this moment. There was flooding happened in Jiangxi (Tianxin) and Hubei (Guangji) area in the end of June and early July. It makes logistical problems and damages. Price level now is about USD Folic acid price is stable to up. A huge volume of waste water in producing folic makes China government take control by giving maximum pollution quota to each supplier. One of the big producer using the quota to produce other item instead of folic. It also said that one of raw material to produce folic has decrease by 50% and it will lead to lower production output. Price is about USD Vit B12 1% Price is stable with a slight upward tendency. Chinese producers continue their strategy to slowly increase the price. Price range at USD Vit C series are in the stable trend. Current market price is lower than production cost. All manufacturer s production cost is increasing and raw material such as corn starch price also increasing. However the demand are weak and several big producers increase their capacity with expectation for more demand in the future. Vit D3 500 price is in downtrend. Market have been covered and traders are still have low price old stock which are still profitable to be sold at current price. Price is about USD Vit E50 price is uptrend. Last week there was an explosion in the largest factory that produces a key raw material MAA for Vit E. This is happened on top of the scarcity of the raw material. Same as others factory that need to shut down for the coming G20, two biggest manufacturers of Vit E are shut down. In September there will be no shipment out from China. Price range now at USD Biotin price is stable at high. Most of manufacturers extend shutdown time due to summer and the coming G20. During the CPHI, Chinese producers were mentioning the determined a target price of USD800,- and to see it before the end of the year. Top 4 producers are not making any offers at the moment. If they want to see a big price increase at least one but preferably two have to stop production for at least 2 months. However there are many stocks in the market now so it hold the price in increasing again. For pure price is about USD
15 Vitamin A price
16 Vitamin E price
17 Copper. Stable to up. LME copper price is jumped high as the strongest since April Demand in markets not so strong, thus price not that jump. Price is about USD Zinc oxide. Uptrend. Zinc metal prices remain firm due to lower mine output which tightened the supply/demand balance. Q3 prices increase and we expect further increases for Q4. Price is about USD Zinc Sulphate. Stable. Prices in China are down a little more due to weak domestic demand but suppliers start to talk about prices increasing the next few months as demand starts to increase. Price is about USD Manganese Sulphate. Stable to weak. Currently prices are stable and in China slightly weak due to poor domestic demand. Price is about USD Sodium Selenite. Up. We see that the bottom was reached in metal and with some new buying interest and less material available in the spot market prices continue to increase quite strongly. Cobalt. Stable to up. After a period of stability market participants believe metal is likely to increase again during the remainder of 2016.
18 Disclaimer: Trouw Nutrition does not warrant or make any representations regarding the use, validity, accuracy, or reliability of, or the results of the use of, or otherwise respecting, the information/data in this report. Trouw Price Trends is an external e-newsletter provided by Trouw Nutrition. TPT0008/16/TNAP For further information please contact Ms. Karren Kim at
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