Myanmar-Cambodia-Lao PDR World Bank Priorities

Transcription

1 Myanmar-Cambodia-Lao PDR World Bank Priorities February 2018 Tokyo, Japan 1

2 Trends in Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction in Myanmar, Cambodia and Lao PDR GDP per capita (US$) Poverty rate (US$1.90 per day PPP) Source: World Bank 2

3 Summary of Strategic Priorities for Myanmar, Cambodia & Lao PDR Country Management Unit Human Capital Development Rural Development and Resilience Peaceful and Prosperous Societies Private Sector Growth & Competitiveness Environment, Climate Change & Natural Resource Mgt Effective Local & State Institutions

4 Effectiveness of State and Local Institutions World Governance Indicators, 2016 Indicator Country Year Percentile Rank (0 to 100) Voice and Accountability East Asia & Pacific 2016 Cambodia 2016 Lao PDR 2016 Myanmar 2016 Government Effectiveness East Asia & Pacific 2016 Cambodia 2016 Lao PDR 2016 Myanmar 2016 Regulatory Quality East Asia & Pacific 2016 Cambodia 2016 Lao PDR 2016 Myanmar 2016 Rule of Law East Asia & Pacific 2016 Cambodia 2016 Lao PDR 2016 Myanmar 2016 Control of Corruption East Asia & Pacific 2016 Cambodia 2016 Lao PDR 2016 Myanmar 2016 Fiscal management, PFM, PAR, D&D, institution-building but also social accountability, citizen engagement, 3rd party monitoring (ICT enabled)

5 Private Sector Growth and Competitiveness Myanmar: DB Ranking 2017 Cambodia: DB Ranking 2017 Lao PDR: DB Ranking 2017 Myanmar: Competitiveness 2016 Cambodia: Competitiveness 2016 Lao PDR: Competitiveness

6 Infrastructure for Competitiveness and Growth Urban Population Living in Slum Areas (2014) Air transport, registered carrier departures worldwide per 000,000 population 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Philippines Lao Transport Connectivity Myanmar Indonesia Thailand Vietnam Cambodia Liner shipping connectivity index (maximum value in 2004 = 100) Country Percent of urban population living in slums Cambodia Lao PDR Myanmar China Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Urban slum population (millions) Source: UN,

7 Human Capital Development: Overcoming Malnutrition and Providing Quality Social Services 70 Stunting rates are falling, but remain around percent in all three countries 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Percent of second graders who could not read a single word 32% 33% 10% Myanmar, Grade 2 Lao, Grade 2 Cambodia, Grade China, 9% Lao PDR, 44% Indonesia, 37% Philippines, 33% Cambodia, 32% Myanmar, 29% Vietnam, 25% % of children under 5 who are stunted Source: WDI 7

8 Rural Development and Resilience: Enhancing Agricultural Productivity, Adding Value, Expanding Export Markets Agricultural Transformation Expanding Export Markets food safety, international 70% standards, processed foods, gradual urbanization Agricultural Value Added (% of Total) 60% 50% 40% Urbanizing 30% 20% Developed 10% AgBiz Growth increased scale, knowledge-based farming; mechanization; contract farming, sustainable commodities Transition Agri-Based Cambodia Myanmar LAO PDR Agricultural supply growth Basic rural infrastructure and agricultural services, Uptake of improved inputs, slow improvement in extension services. Agricultural productivity and diversification Market linkages; Core SPS services; Meeting changing urban consumption patterns; Attracting private investment 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Pre-Transition Agricultural Employment (% of Total) 8

9 Environment, Climate Change and Readiness for Natural Disasters Climate Vulnerability and Readiness Index 1996 Climate Vulnerability and Readiness Index 2015 Vulnerability Vulnerability Readiness Readiness Myanmar, Cambodia and Lao: scoring high on vulnerability, low on readiness for climate resilience compared globally. Source: ND GAIN index,

10 Promoting Peaceful and Prosperous Societies A case of widespread and persistent conflict in Myanmar s border states Countrywide : More than 1/3 of Myanmar s townships are conflict-affected; approximately 25% of the population More than 20 separate Ethnic Armed Organizations 100,000 Internally Displaced People; 100,000+ refugees in Thailand and China (excluding recent Rakhine refugees) Rakhine: 688,000+ Rohingya refugees displaced to Bangladesh ~30,000 internally displaced persons Widespread alleged human rights abuses (e.g. murder, rape, arson) Government-led relief effort with Red Cross Movement support Limited access for humanitarian actors, media Source: The Contested Areas of Myanmar The Asia Foundation, October

11 Agriculture 10% Health, Nutrition & Population 12% Education 16% Priorities in IDA Portfolios (by Commitment Amount) Water 6% Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience 32% Transport & Digital Development 24% Cambodia Energy & Extractives 26% Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience 39% Myanmar Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment 10% Lao PDR Health, Nutrition & Population 10% Water 14% Agriculture 5% Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation 5% Health, Nutrition & Population 5% Water 5% Energy & Extractives 15% Education 8% Transport & Digital Development 7% Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience 16% Environment & Natural Resources 24% Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation 5% Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment 1% Transport & Digital Development 1% Education 4% Current IDA portfolio: About 77 percent of our IDA portfolio is in Myanmar (USD 2.1 billion), while 14 percent is in Lao PDR (USD 369 million) and 9 percent in Cambodia (USD 250 million). IFC s committed investment portfolio: in Myanmar (USD 1.2 billion); in Cambodia (USD 264 million); and in Lao PDR (USD 40.1 million). 11

12 New IDA Lending in Fiscal Year Country Project Name IDA Amount ($m) FY18 FY19 Cambodia Lao PDR Myanmar Cambodia Lao PDR Higher Education Improvement Project 90 Road Asset Management Project II Additional Financing 110 Cambodia Total 200 Additional Financing for Mekong Integrated Water Resources (Approved) 25 Southeast Asia Disaster Risk Management Project (Approved) 30 Additional Financing to Lao PDR Health Governance and Nutrition (Approved) 10 Agriculture Competitiveness Project 25 National Road 13 Improvement and Maintenance 40 Lao PDR Total 130 Additional Financing: Essential Health Services Access Project 100 Inclusive Access and Quality Education project 100 Myanmar Total 200 FY18 TOTAL 530 Agricultural Sector Diversification Project 90 Cambodia Nutrition Project 15 Integrated Landscape and Natural Resources Management 60 Small-Town Water Supply and Sanitation Improvement Project 50 Cambodia Total 215 Competitiveness and Trade Project 10 Reducing Rural Poverty and Malnutrition Project 25 Sustainable Energy and Extractives Development Technical Assistance 20 Water Supply and Sanitation Project 25 Laos - Vietnam Interconnector Project 20 Disaster Risk Management Development Policy Operation (CAT DDO) 10 Lao PDR Total 110 Investing in Nutrition for Growth and Development in Myanmar 100 Myanmar Trade and Private Sector Competitiveness Project 200 Power System Energy Efficiency Improvement Project 160 National Food and Agriculture Systems Project 100 Myanmar Total 560 FY19 TOTAL 885 FY20 Lao PDR Health and Nutrition Services Access Project 15 FY20 TOTAL 15 GRAND TOTAL

13 THANK YOU VERY MUCH どうもありがとうございました 13