INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN 1983 AND CURRENT PROSPECTS. First Assessment by the GATT Secretariat

Transcription

1 unque le presse! LaM W1211 GenjM A We (022)»2 EMBARGO: NOT FOR PUBLICATION BEFORE 0001 GMT FRIDAY 25 MAY 1984 GATT/ May 1984 INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN 1983 AND CURRENT PROSPECTS Frst Assessment by the GATT Secretarat Ths s the GATT secretarat's frst summary and assessment of world trade and major economc developments n Part I summarzes the man facts. Part II provdes addtonal detals on the mpact of the frst year of economc recovery on the trade balances of both the heavly ndebted developng countres and the ndustral countres. PART I - DEVELOPMENTS IN 1983 Followng two years of stagnaton and declne, the volume of world trade ncreased by 2 per cent n The expanson_of world exports was partcularly rapd n the second half of the year. Although the volume of world trade last year was about the same as n 1980, the composton has changed n the nterm. Trade n mneral products declned for the fourth consecutve year, due to the contnung declne n exports of petroleum (Chart I). Agrcultural and manufactured exports, n contrast, contnued to expand, recordng ncreases of 2 per cent and 4 per cent respectvely. Dollar unt values of trade fell by nearly 4 per cent n 1983, matchng the 1982 declne, due prmarly to a further apprecaton of the US dollar and a declne n fuel prces. Ths more than offset the ncrease n volume, causng the value of world trade to declne by 2 per cent, to about $1,810 bllon (Table 1). Later n 1984, when more complete nformaton s avalable, these prelmnary ndcatons wll be elaborated n greater detal n the GATT annual report Internatonal Trade 1983/84. 2 Trade statstcs coverng all of 1983 are avalable for most ndustral countres. For other countres, data referrng to the year 1983 are rough estmates based on the months avalable and on the returns of those of ther tradng partners for whch complete data are avalable

2 Page 2 CHART I Development of World Exports (Volume ndces, 1970 = 100) Manuf actur es 1.. *"""'" Agrcultural ^ products T r Crude Petroleum \< and products s. \ Source: Annex Table 1 of GATT, Internatonal Trade, 1982/83. Among the developng countres, the trade surplus of the tradtonal ol exporters contnued to declne. Meanwhle, the trade defct of the non-ol developng countres reached ts lowest level - relatve to exports - snce Producton and Trade by Product Groups World producton s estmated to have ncreased by about 2 per cent n volume terms last year, matchng 1983's ncrease n world trade and just balancng the 2 per cent declne n world producton n Prelmnary estmates for 1983 ndcate that the volume of world agrcultural output declned by 1 per cent n 1983, led by sharp declnes n the output of coarse grans n the Unted States and sugar n the European Communtes. Agrcultural exports ncreased nevertheless, by about 2 per cent, due prmarly to larger mports by the Eastern tradng area and the non-ol developng countres. In ths secton producton refers to the combned output of agrculture, mnng and manufacturng, that s, t excludes servces and constructon.

3 Page 3 TABLE 1. - WORLD TRADE BY AREAS IN 1982 AND 1983 (Bllon dollars and percentages) Exports (fob) Imports (cf) tr, Change over TT, Change over Value J Value J prevous year prevous year WORLD of vrtch: Industral countres ^ *5 Tradtonal ol-exportng ^ »6-16 developng countres Other developng countres Vh -#$ Eastern Tradng Area lh +44 Algera, Ecuador, Gabon, Indonesa, Iran, Iraq, Kuvrat, Lbyan Arab Jamahrya, Ngera, Qatar, Saud Araba, Unted Arab Emrates and Venezuela. Imports f.o.b. Note; Data for 1983 are based on ncomplete returns and are subject to revsons. Sources: IMF, Internatonal Fnancal Statstcs; UN, Monthly Bulletn of Statstcs; natonal statstcs. There was a revval of mneral producton n the second half of the year whch lmted the overall declne n volume n 1983 to about \h per cent. Crude ol producton remaned stagnant, an 8 per cent reducton n the output of the tradtonal ol exportng developng countres (ncludng a reducton of nearly 25 per cent by Saud Araba), beng more or less balanced by producton ncreases of 5 per cent n the other developng countres and 3 per cent n the ndustral countres. World coal output s estmated to have declned n 1983 for the frst tme snce 1971, as a fall n the producton of the Unted States and the European Communtes outweghed a 4 per cent rse n Chna's producton. In North Amerca, especally n the Unted States, gas producton declned steeply, whle n the European Communtes t expanded by about 4 per cent and n the USSR by about 7 per cent, makng the latter country the world's leadng natural gas producer. Exports of crude ol fell by 8 per cent, puttng the volume of exports at the lowest level snce the late 1960s. World coal exports, whch stagnated n 1982, are estmated to have fallen by about 4 per cent n Natural gas exports, whch had recorded a declne n 1982, recovered somewhat n 1983, whle exports of petroleum products ncreased by an estmated 3 per cent.

4 Page 4 In the ndustral countres the volume of manufacturng producton ncreased throughout the year. However, for 1983 as a whole the gan was lmted to 3 per cent, compared to a 4 per cent declne n Manufacturng producton rose by 1\ per cent n North Amerca and by about 4 per cent n Japan, but only margnally n Western Europe. It s estmated that n the developng countres the volume of manufacturng producton may have ncreased by about 6 per cent, compared wth a 4 per cent gan n the precedng year. The 4 per cent ncrease n the volume of world trade n manufactures was prmarly the result of an expanson of trade among ndustral countres, as well as sgnfcantly larger exports from certan developng countres to the ndustral countres. In contrast to the 6 to 7 per cent overall ncrease n mports of manufactures by the ndustral countres, there was a sgnfcant declne n mports of manufactures by the developng countres, especally among the hghly ndebted ones and the tradtonal ol-exporters. Industral countres 2. Developments n Man Areas The combned output of all goods and servces n the ndustral countres expanded by about 2 per cent n volume terms n 1983, compared to a h per cent declne n In North Amerca and Japan, GDP growth was around 3 per cent, whereas the ncrease n Western Europe was about 1 per cent. In the Unted States, the ncrease n domestc demand centred on prvate consumpton and resdental constructon; nvestment, n contrast, was only margnally above ts level of the precedng year, and thus remaned well below that of An mportant factor n Japan's growth was the recovery of foregn demand for ts exports, coupled wth the growth of prvate consumpton n Japan. Manufacturng producton n the ndustral countres expanded by about 3 per cent n 1983, but remaned below ts level. Most forecasters predct a contnuaton of the recovery n the ndustral countres n 1984, wth producton rsng more rapdly n North Amerca and Japan than n Western Europe. Employment and unemployment trends dffered n the Unted States, Japan and Western Europe n Total employment n the Unted States was up 4 per cent n 1983, a net gan of approxmately 4 mllon jobs. Employment n manufacturng ncreased stll more rapdly, partcularly n electronc, machnery and transport equpment. These gans n employment were a major factor n the declne n the unemployment rate from more than 10 per cent at the end of 1982, to about 8 per cent at the end of In Japan, the number of people employed ncreased by about 2 per cent n 1983 (a gan of about 1 mllon jobs), whle the unemployment rate was up slghtly from the 1982 level because of the large number of new entrants nto the labour force. In Western Europe, on the other hand, there was lttle change n the level of employment, and the unemployment rate ncreased by about 1 percentage pont n 1983 over the prevous year's level.

5 Page 5 Inflaton n the ndustral countres declned to about 5*5 per cent from nearly 8 per cent n 1982, reachng ts lowest level snce In several countres, ncludng the Unted States, Japan, the FR Germany, the Netherlands and Swtzerland the nflaton rate was close to 3 per cent, or even below. Interest rates, after declnng n 1982, levelled off n 1983, thus ncreasng n nflaton-adjusted terms, especally n the Unted States. The overall trade defct of the ndustral countres remaned at the prevous year's level, wth the dollar value of both exports and mports fallng by about 1 to 1^ per cent. In volume terms, exports and mports recovered by approxmately 2 and 4 per cent, respectvely, despte the contnued declne n the volume of ol mports. The volume of exports to the tradtonal ol-exportng countres declned agan n 1983, whle exports to other developng countres are estmated to have ncreased moderately. Table 2 provdes fgures on changes n trade flows among the man ndustral areas n Among the more nterestng ponts s the sharp ncrease n the value of mports nto the Unted States and Canada, the declne n Unted States exports to Western Europe, and the modest declne n trade among West European countres. TABLE 2. - MAIN INTRA-INDUSTRIAL COUNTRY TRADE FLOWS: Percentage change, 1983 over 1982 Unted States' exports to: Japan's exports to EC's exports to: Canada 12.3 Japan 4.1 Western Europe EC Unted States Canada Western Europe EC Unted States Canada Japan Western Europe -1.8 EC -1.7 January-November 1983 compared wth January-November Sources : UN Statstcal Offce, Comtrade Data Bank; OECD, Seres A. The ncrease of mports nto the Unted States was equvalent to one-half of the net ncrease n the volume of world trade n Combned wth the fall n exports, ths produced a substantal ncrease n that country's trade and current account defcts. The overall trade and current defcts of the ndustral countres as a group contracted somewhat n 1983, however, as Japan's surplus expanded sgnfcantly, and the defcts of most West European countres - n partcular, those of Italy and France - were lower than n the precedng year. Developng countres As was noted above, n the tradtonal ol-exportng developng countres petroleum producton and exports fell n 1983 for the fourth consecutve year. Though the volume of these countres' exports dropped

6 Page 6 less sharply than n 1982, ther aggregate export recepts were agan down by around 20 per cent, to less than $180 bllon, or about 10 per cent of world trade. Reduced export earnngs led Ngera, Venezuela and, to a lesser extent, Indonesa - the three most heavly ndebted tradtonal ol-exportng developng countres - to curtal mports severely. Imports also fell, though less sharply, n other countres n ths group (except Iran) so that, n aggregate terms, mports by the tradtonal ol-exportng developng countres declned by 16 per cent. Wth export recepts down 20 per cent, ther trade surplus contnued to declne n Accordng to prelmnary nformaton for the non-ol developng countres n 1983, substantally hgher rates of economc growth were recorded n Inda, and n a few areas of East/Southeast Asa (n partcular, Hong Kong and the Republc of Korea) whch benefted from the recovery n the ndustral countres. Ths contrasted sharply wth the prolonged recesson n Latn Amerca, most of Afrca and n some Asan countres. Because the gans n producton of crude petroleum and manufactures n the non-ol developng countres were more or less balanced by declnes n agrcultural output and output of non-petroleum mnerals, t s estmated that there was lttle change n the aggregate output of the non-ol developng countres between 1982 and Inflaton trends vared among the non-ol developng countres, wth many reportng lower rates n 1983, whle n others - ncludng Ngera, Israel and several of the most ndebted countres n Latn Amerca - nflaton accelerated. The volume of mports nto the non-ol developng countres fell agan n 1983, whle exports expanded. Only a relatvely small number of these countres appear to have fully partcpated n the export upturn, however (among them Brazl, the Republc of Korea, Malaysa and Pakstan). In aggregate terms, export earnngs rose by an estmated 4 per cent n 1983, to a lttle more than $265 bllon, stll below 1981 levels; mports declned n 1983 by around 7 per cent, somewhat less sharply than n the prevous year, to about $290 bllon (n both cases, t s mportant to keep n mnd that dollar unt values for world trade as a whole have fallen by 4 per cent n each of the past two years). The contracton n mports was partcularly marked n Latn Amerca. On the other hand, n some countres n Asa - partcularly those whose exports were expandng - the value of mports ncreased n The trade defct of just under $30 bllon (c..f.-f.o.b.) for the non-ol developng countres n 1983 was the smallest snce Ths s not, however, a partcularly relevant comparson because of the hgh rate of nflaton of world market prces durng the past ten years. One way of partally compensatng for the effect of nflaton s to relate the trade defct to the value of exports, as has been done n Chart II. It s apparent from the chart that, measured ths way, the 1983 trade defct of the non-ol developng countres was the smallest snce 1953.

7 Page 7 45 I CHART II NON-OIL DEVELOPING COUNTRIES* TRADE DEFICIT, a (As a percentage of exports, f.o.b.) _ 5 _ 1^ r T "Trade defct s here defned n the usual way, as mports (c..f.) less exports (f.o.b.); on a f.o.b.-f.o.b. bass, the merchandse trade of the non-ol developng countres n 1983 would be more or less n balance. Eastern tradng area In Eastern Europe (excludng the Sovet Unon) aggregate producton, after declnng by 1 per cent n 1981 and stagnatng n 1982, s estmated to have ncreased by 3^ per cent n Ths ncrease s due n part to a 4^ per cent growth of producton n Poland, followng four years of declnng output. Eastern Europe's exports and mports are estmated to have ncreased n dollar value by 5 and 4^ per cent, respectvely, n The trade surplus rose by a further $1 bllon to nearly $5 bllon n Aggregate producton n the Sovet Unon s reported to have also rsen by 3^ per cent n The growth of ndustral producton accelerated to 4 per cent and that of agrcultural output to 5 per cent. The dollar value of exports ncreased by 5% per cent and that of mports by 3*5 per cent. The overall trade surplus, whch had already reached an all tme hgh of $9 bllon n 1982, ncreased further to $11 bllon n 1983.

8 Page 8 Accordng to prelmnary data, ndustral producton n Chna expanded by about 10 per cent n Agrcultural output also expanded sgnfcantly. In dollar value, mports ncreased by about 7 per cent, whle exports stagnated. As a result, the trade surplus contracted from $3 bllon n 1982 to an estmated $2 bllon n Exchange Rates and Prces Dollar export prces of prmary commodtes (excludng fuels), whch had declned markedly n the two precedng years, rose by about 1 per cent n 1983 (the recovery of prces s sgnfcantly greater, however, when expressed n other currences). Dollar prces of prmary commodtes orgnatng n developng countres were up 5 per cent n 1983, wth prces of agrcultural raw materals ncreasng by 7 per cent (Table 3). There was a 1 per cent declne n export prces for food, lower prces of food exports from developed countres more than offsettng hgher prces for food exported by developng countres. (In the early months of 1984, dollar prces of prmary commodtes contnued to rse, especally those of tropcal beverages, vegetable ols, rubber and znc.) Export prces of crude petroleum, n contrast, fell by a further 13 per cent n 1983, ths trend contnung nto 1984 (Chart III). TABLE 3. - EXPORT PRICES OF PRIMARY COMDnTES (Percentage change over prevous year) Food Agrcultural Non-ferrous Prmary raw materals metals commodtes Developed countres ^ k -2 Developng countres % Wbrld b *5-12^ excludng crude petroleum. Excludng the Eastern Tradng Area. Source: UN, Monthly Bulletn of Statstcs.

9 Page 9 CHART III Export Prces, (Indces, 1970 = 100) Log scale 3000, ^. / Crude Petrol eu Log scale»nnn l r I Preary" /v Pnary p b / '* Vvj f HO / > / / Hanufacares Jt 1 / 1 / "T IlBOO Praary products excludng crude petroleu exported by developng countres. Praary products excludng erode petroleu exported by developed countres. Unt value of eanufactures exported by developed countres Source: UN, Honthlv Bulletn of Statstcs.- UNCTAD, Hon t h y Coaaodtv Prce Bulletn and IHF, Internatonal Fnancal Statstc».

10 Page 10 The dollar unt values of manufactured exports decreased by an estmated 4 per cent n 1983, almost the same rate as n Whereas n the Unted States unt values ncreased 1^ per cent, they declned by 2 per cent n Japan and by 5 per cent n Western Europe, due to the apprecaton of the dollar. The US dollar's blateral nomnal exchange rate apprecated aganst all major currences except the yen n On a year-over-year bass, t apprecated by 3H per cent aganst the Swss franc, 5 per cent aganst the Deutschmark and by around 16 per cent aganst both the French franc and the pound sterlng. The yen rose even more sharply aganst these currences and by almost 5 per cent n terms of US dollars. In the frst quarter of 1984, the dollar weakened slghtly aganst other currences, then recovered as Unted States nterest rates moved up. Trends n trade-weghted effectve exchange rates n 1983 were broadly smlar to those n The man excepton was the effectve exchange rate of the Japanese yen, whch rose by 10 per cent, compared to a 5h per cent declne n The US dollar, the Deutschmark and the Swss franc contnued to apprecate n effectve terms, although the dollar's ncrease declned to just under 6 per cent, half that of the prevous year. (In real terms, that s adjusted for nflaton dfferentals usng prce ndces for non-food manufactures, the ncrease n the effectve exchange rate of the dollar n 1983 s closer to 3 per cent.) PART II: RECOVERY AND TRADE As s evdent from the precedng dscusson, the recovery of world trade n 1983 conceals hghly dvergent trends by regon and product groups. Imports expanded strongly n those ndustral countres experencng a consumer-led recovery (especally North Amerca and the Unted Kngdom, but also n the Federal Republc of Germany), as well as n the Eastern tradng area and the more advanced developng countres n South and Far East Asa. In these regons, mport growth n volume terms for ndvdual countres generally ranged between 7 and 12 per cent. Manufactured mports grew faster than total mports, as fuel mports stagnated or declned n volume. The stuaton was very dfferent n countres wth sluggsh growth and/or severe debt servce problems, where n many nstances mports declned sharply. The mpact of the recovery on dfferent product groups s also nterestng. The most outstandng development was the boom n trade n electronc products, especally computers and related equpment, electronc components (such as sem-conductors and electronc mcrocrcuts) and parts of consumer electronc goods. Wth the excepton of personal computers and vdeo tape recorders, on the other hand, the expanson of trade n fnshed consumer electronc products (such as televson sets and rados) was not partcularly strong. Trade n ron and steel contnued to be weak, n contrast to other sem-manufactured goods such as non-ferrous metals and wood manufactures. Cvl arcraft and passenger cars recorded growth rates above the average for manufactures, after years of depressed sales.

11 Page 11 There was lttle change n trade n textles and clothng globally, wth the major excepton of North Amerca; n the Unted States, clothng Imports ncreased by 17^ per cent n dollar terms, compared wth 12 per cent for total manufactures. Because the Unted States, the Federal Republc of Germany, the Unted Kngdom and Canada account for about 75 per cent of the ndustral countres' mports of manufactures from developng countres, the recovery n these markets strongly stmulated the exports of manufactures from developng countres. Thus among the developng countres, the prncpal benefcares of the recovery n the ndustral countres were those countres for whch manufactures are a large part of total exports. Among the ndustral countres themselves, only a few recorded hgh export growth rates (expressed n dollar terms). Canada's exports expanded by 9*5 per cent due prmarly to the Unted States recovery, whle n Europe, export growth exceeded 10 per cent n Sweden and Ireland. External adjustment n ndebted countres In Internatonal Trade 1982/83, t was reported that seven out of sxteen selected ndebted developng countres had reduced ther merchandse trade defcts or moved nto surplus between 1981 and 1982, prmarly through a contracton of mports. A smlar analyss for 1983, based on the prelmnary fgures n Chart IV, s now possble for ffteen of those countres. A comparson of monthly average trade balances n 1983 wth those for 1982 reveals a number of nterestng aspects of last year's balance-of-payments adjustment process n the ndebted countres. Eleven of the ffteen countres experenced ether a reduced merchandse trade defct (Colomba, the Republc of Korea, Morocco and Yugoslava), a move from defct nto surplus (Brazl and Peru), or an ncreased surplus (Argentna, Chle, Mexco, Ngera and Venezuela). However, n only two of those countres was there an ncrease n exports (Brazl and the Republc of Korea), and Korea was the only one of the eleven n whch mports ncreased; n the other countres the move of the trade balance n the desred drecton depended on a sharp declne n mports. Indonesa s not covered n the current analyss because of a lack of data. Data for all of 1983 are avalable for seven countres, and at least nne months of data are avalable for seven others; the fgures for Egypt are based on data for sx months. Ths groupng does not mply that each of the ffteen countres faces a payments problem of equal serousness, nor even that all of them have a payments problem. However, all but fve (Republc of Korea, Venezuela, Phlppnes, Thaland and Egypt) have been reported as havng formally rescheduled debt n the last three years (IBRD, World Debt Tables Edton, p.xv). In four of those countres (Argentna, Brazl, Chle and Mexco) over 45 per cent of merchandse exports were used n nterest payments (net) n 1982, whle the correspondng share n Ngera and Venezuela was less than 10 per cent.

12 Page 12 Jb Chart 1Y - KRCHANOISE TRADE DEVELOPHENTS II FIFTEEN INDEBTED COUNTRIES, * (Bllllan dallar»; nnthly veng») tb 2.0 NIGERIA MEXICO 1.5 s?, I <.<: 1 l I VENEZUELA YUGOSLAVIA 1.0 7A W- THAILAND " 81 '82' 8? l 80 ' 81 '82 ' BF 1 ' 80 ' 81 ' ' 80' 81 " 82 sf 1 J 80 " ' 83 l *1983 data ara pravlalanal. Thay ara baaad an astfaataa far tha «haïa yaar ar avallaba lanths. I apart», e.l.f. ---Expartt f.a.b. \Z71 Trada defct f'trada aura «a Saurca: IMF, Infernatlanal Fnancal Statlatca; and natanal statstcs.

13 Page 13 In three of the countres, there was lttle change n the defct n 1983 (Egypt, the Phlppnes and Turkey), whle a sharp rse n mports was the man cause of the bg ncrease n Thaland's defct. In addton to the contnued heavy relance of the adjustment process on mport contracton, the other strkng feature of Chart IV s the prevously mentoned pont that only two of the ffteen countres reported an ncrease n the value of merchandse exports n 1983 (t should be added that there was a strong expanson of Mexco's non-petroleum exports, whch represent about one-quarter of total exports, but t was not suffcent to offset the declne n petroleum exports). Thus, wth the lmted excepton of certan countres for whch manufactures are an mportant part of total exports, the recovery n the ndustral countres has yet to have a sgnfcant mpact on the trade of the more heavly ndebted developng countres. Developments n ndustral countres' exports Among the major ndustral countres, the one most affected by the 16 per cent declne n the dollar value of mports nto the tradtonal ol-exportng developng countres was the Unted States, whle below average declnes n exports to the ol producers were recorded by the EC and Japan. Japan's exports to the ffteen ndebted countres shown n Chart IV (whch ncludes two tradtonal ol-exporters - Ngera and Venezuela) declned less n 1983 than those of the other major ndustral areas. Whle the dollar value of total mports nto ths group s estmated to have declned by around 20 per cent, ther mports from Japan are estmated to have decreased between 5 and 10 per cent. Ths can be partly explaned, however, by the fact that Japan s a tradtonally large suppler of the Republc of Korea and Thaland, each of whose mports ncreased sharply n Exports of the Unted States and the EC, on the other hand, were partcularly affected by the declne n mports nto the heavly ndebted developng countres. Altogether, declnng exports to the ndebted developng countres n Chart IV and to the tradtonal ol-exportng developng countres were equvalent to about two-thrds of the Unted States' export declne n 1983 and to about 60 per cent of the declne n the dollar value of the European Communtes' merchandse exports. In the case of Japan, depressed sales to these two groups of developng countres caused export growth to be smaller than t otherwse would have been. Trade developments play a crucal role n the external adjustment process but t should be stressed that n certan countres there are other mportant sources of foregn exchange (e.g. mgrants' remttances and toursm recepts). Trends n trade are therefore not the only factor to be consdered n assessng external adjustment.

14 Page 14 OUTLOOK Consderng both the current forecasts for the growth of GNP n the man countres and the fact that the recovery s enterng a more mature phase, t seems lkely that the volume of world trade n 1984 wll be between 5 and 6 per cent above the 1983 level. Turnng to the challenges confrontng polcy makers, t s apparent that the resumpton of growth n a number of ndustral countres and some developng countres has mproved the economc outlook, but only to a degree. Unemployment contnues to be a major concern n Western Europe and throughout the developng world. The analyss n Part II, whch revealed the contnued relance on mport contracton to "mprove" the payments postons of the more heavly ndebted developng countres, makes t clear that a satsfactory resoluton of the debt crss s stll to be found. The demand for borrowed captal remans strong relatve to avalable savngs, helpng to keep nterest rates hgh. And on the nflaton front - the source of much of the good news n the past three years - there s as yet no clear evdence of a permanent vctory n the fght aganst nflaton n the major ndustral countres. The pont of these remarks s not to detract from the gans of the past year or so, but rather to note that durable solutons have yet to be found for two of the fundamental economc problems of the early 1980s - the need for an orderly resoluton of the debt crss, and the need for a return to sustaned non-nflatonary growth In the world economy (ncludng a resumpton of the development process throughout the developng countres). The polcy challenges presented by these two problems, whch merge nto one to the extent that the soluton to the debt crss les n a resumpton of economc growth worldwde, wll be consdered n detal n Internatonal Trade 1983/84. Although a 5 or 6 per cent gan n 1984 would be well above the 2 per cent gan n 1983 over 1982, ths outlook actually assumes that trade wll grow at a moderate rate n The explanaton les n the fact that the fgure for 1983 as a whole s relatvely small because most of the growth n trade occurred n the second half of the year, when world exports were runnng 5 per cent ahead of the year earler level. END