Research on the Economic Impact of New Energy Fiscal and Tax Policies Based on CGE Model -- A Case from Inner Mongolia

Transcription

1 Research on the Economc Impact of New Energy Fscal and Tax Polces Based on CGE Model -- A Case from Inner Mongola HAN Wehong, PAN Lnglng and YANG Xnletua School of Economcs and Management, Inner Mongola Unversty of Technology, Hohhot, Chna Abstract: The development of new energy s not only an obectve need for sustanable development of manknd, but also an mportant breakthrough for the world to foster new economc growth ponts. The focus of ths artcle s on what knd of fscal and tax polces the government mplements can better gude the development of new energy and have a more favorable mpact on the economy. Ths paper, takng wnd power and solar photovoltac power ndustres n the Inner Mongola as an example, usng the dynamc 3ED-CGE model, explored the economc mpacts of dfferent fnancal subsdes and preferental tax polces on new energy enterprses. And then ths paper provded suggestons for the formulaton of fscal and tax polces. The study founded that compared wth the fxed subsdy mechansm fnancal subsdes by the fall-off mechansm could be better to promote the growth of GDP, resdents welfare and employment. If the government ddn t subsdze the new energy electrc power s sales prce to network after 22, t would not have a negatve mpact. The 5% ncome tax rate was more effectve n promotng the development of economc than 25%. 8.5% and 6% value-added tax rate exerted smlar effects on the economy, but 6% value-added tax rate had a sgnfcant promoton on optmzed adustment the consumpton structure of fossl energy and electrc energy. Introducton The shortage of energy has been an mportant problem that plagued the economc development. Wth the further mprovement of the level of ndustralzaton, t s becomng more and more mportant to solve the problem of energy shortage. Ths wll have a great mpact on the economy and socety of our country. The development and utlzaton of new energy have a great sgnfcance n effectvely resolvng the shortage of fossl energy resources, ensurng the growng energy demand [], mprovng the ecologcal envronment of the earth, promotng the sustanable economc development and optmzng the ndustral structure. At present, the development of new energy ndustry s stll n the prmary stage. The government's fscal subsdy and tax preferental polces on the new energy ndustry have become the key to reduce the cost of new energy generaton, enhance the compettveness of new energy generaton ndustry and promote the scope of new energy development and utlzaton. In recent years, the development of Chna's new energy ndustry has made remarkable achevements. By the end of 27, the new nstalled capacty of Chna's wnd power s 5 mllon 3 thousand klowatts, the accumulatve nstalled capacty s 64 mllon klowatts, the new nstalled capacty of solar photovoltac power generaton s 34 mllon 54 thousand KW and the accumulatve nstalled capacty s 3 mllon klowatts. The cumulatve nstalled capacty of solar photovoltac and wnd power s the world s frst. As a resource area, the Inner Mongola Autonomous Regon has rch solar energy and wnd energy by vrtues of ts unque natural condtons. In Chna, the solar radaton n Inner Mongola s only second to Tbet, and the wnd energy reserves n the whole regon account for /5 of the total wnd energy reserves n the country and therefore Inner Mongola has great potental for the development of new energy ndustry. As an mportant means to gude the economc operaton and adust the ndustral structure, fscal and taxaton polces have a sgnfcant mpact on economc effcency. Therefore, ths paper, takng the Inner Mongola Autonomous Regon wnd power and solar photovoltac power generaton ndustres as an example, studes the nfluences of dfferent fnancal subsdes and tax preferences on the economc. And on ths bass, t seeks to the approprate new energy fnance and taxaton polcy to develop the new energy ndustry, boost economc growth, ncrease the welfare of the resdents, and realze the target of the development of renewable energy development" n 3th Fve-Year", "By 22, the electrcty prce of the wnd power proect can compete wth the local coal-fred power generaton platform, and the PV tem prce can be equvalent to the electrcty prce of the power grd." Ths s also a pressng problem for local and central governments. Enterng the twenty-frst Century, Chna's new energy ndustry has begun to grow rapdly. Chna's research on *Correspondng author: Yang Xnletu@yangbll5872@yahoo.com. School of Economcs and Management, Inner Mongola Unversty of Technology The Authors, publshed by EDP Scences. Ths s an open access artcle dstrbuted under the terms of the Creatve Commons Attrbuton Lcense 4. (

2 new energy ndustry s endless. Frstly, the theoretcal analyss shows that the expanson of the new energy development fund [2], the mprovement of the new energy prce polcy and the adustment mechansm [3 ], the use of ncentve tax preferental polcy n the development stage of the new energy ndustry [4], and the constructon of the tax system of the new energy ndustry all can mprove the qualty of the tax [5]. Secondly, the research on fscal and taxaton polces to promote the development of new energy ndustry s concentrated on the followng aspects, () Wth regard to the polcy of fnancal subsdes, through the full summary of our new energy and tax polcy, Y. Wang (28) ponted out that the new energy and tax polcy s not approprate, but the "output subsdy" can mprove the compettveness of new energy and promote the development of new energy ndustry [6]. J. Kaldells (22) analyses the role of the U. S. wnd power generaton prce polcy n promotng the development of the new energy ndustry, and he beleved that the Feed-n tarff has a postve role n promotng the further development of the ndustry [7]. (2) Wth regard to the polcy of tax preferences, Q. Lu (23) and J. Ma (25) made a comprehensve evaluaton of panel data of new energy lsted companes by regresson analyss and mult-level fuzzy optmzaton model, then they proved that the tax preferental polces have great mpact on the development of the company, and gave a postve answer to the good effect of tax polcy [8][9]. Fnally, the nfluence of fnancal subsdes on the economy s manly studed on the nfluence of the wnd energy fscal and tax polces on the economc operaton. The research shows that the fscal polcy to promote the development of wnd energy ndustry also ncreases the total output value, he total proft and tax, and the employment number of the other energy and electrcty ndustres. In addton, the new energy ndustry has a wde ndustral chan and hgh techncal content, whch makes the government support the new energy ndustry n the process of development and wll realze the agglomeraton economc effect of ths ndustry []. Y. Sun (22)taken sngle state statc model, CGE-LHR model, to study the mpacts of tradtonal energy tax and wnd power subsdes on the development of Chna's wnd power ndustry and the macroeconomc [], but ths study can nether examne the tax polcy of the wnd power ndustry, nor can smulate the economc changes n many perod. What are the effects of the new energy polces on the regonal economy, especally n Inner Mongola and other areas wth unque energy characterstcs, and how to use approprate fscal and tax polces to promote the optmzaton and upgradng of energy consumpton structure? There s no quanttatve analyss at present. In vew of the shortcomngs of the exted research, ths paper takes the wnd power and solar photovoltac power ndustry n Inner Mongola as an example. Consderng the specfc natural condtons and economc condtons of the Inner Mongola Autonomous Regon, we can calculate the general equlbrum model of the regonal energy envronment, 3ED-CGE model [2], and set up 5 scenaro smulaton schemes. And we compared and analyzed the effects of dfferent fnancal subsdes and preferental tax polces on the GDP, the level of employment, the welfare of the resdents, the tradtonal power sector, the new energy power sector and the fossl energy sector, and then provded some polcy suggestons. We tred to make up for the new energy fscal and taxaton polcy regonal economc mpacts emprcal analyss blank. 2 Analyss of the mpacts of new energy fnance and taxaton polces on the economy Ths paper used the CGE model to study the mpacts of the mplementaton of new energy fscal and tax polces on the economy. In order to understand the relatonshp between polcy mplementaton and economc operaton, before buldng the model, the nfluence mechansm of new energy fscal and tax polces on the economy s analyzed n advance. 2. Analyss of the nfluence of economc growth Implementng fscal and tax preferental polces for new energy power generaton enterprses, on the one hand, t s benefcal to reduce the producton cost of new energy generaton enterprses, mprove ther market compettveness, and provde hgher proft space for ths knd of enterprses to expand reproducton. On the other hand, t wll also reduce the producton costs of enterprses usng electrcty for producton and then reduce the cost of producton. The prce of these enterprses stmulates the ncrease of ther demands, thus t can promote the economc benefts of these enterprses. Based on the above two ponts, the mplementaton of fscal and taxaton polces wll help promote economc growth. However, under the assumpton of certan condtons of government fnancal subsdes, the ncrease of fnancal subsdes to new energy power generaton enterprses wll reduce the fnancal support of other enterprses. Compared wth tradtonal mature ndustres, the new energy ndustry s a new ndustry, and ts output effcency s much lower than that of tradtonal ndustres. The economc growth pont n Inner Mongola s manly concentrated n the tradtonal mature heavy ndustry. Therefore, the ncrease of new energy fnancal subsdes wll have a certan negatve mpact on the economc growth. Accordng to the relatonshp between "Okun's law" and W. Lu, et al (25) [3], we can see that the stable growth of economy and the ncrease of employment rate are have closely relatonshp. Fscal and taxaton polces that can promote economc growth wll also help ncrease employment. In addton, snce 2, Chna has promoted the rapd mprovement of the level of welfare transformaton, and the couplng degree of economc growth and welfare transformaton have also ncreased (J. Wu, 25) [4]. Therefore, the new energy fnance and taxaton polcy wll also have a certan mpact on the welfare of resdents. 2.2 Analyss of the mpacts of power sector output 2

3 Fgure 2. Producton Structure Herarchy Dagram In ths paper, the producton factors of new energy power enterprses can be classfed nto two types: labor force and captal. As shown n fgure, the horzontal axs L represents labor, and the longtudnal axs K represents captal. Under the fxed nput condtons, the equvalent cost curves of the new energy power generaton enterprse are C and C 2, and the correspondng maxmum output curves are Q and Q2, E and E2 represent the equal cost curves, E and E2 are optmal allocaton ponts. PP KK KK + PP LL LL = CC () K C E C2 E2 Fgure. Effect Analyss n Output of New Energy Fscal and Taxaton Polces Ths paper assumes that the government's preferental polces for new energy power enterprses wll not affect Q2 Q L the amount of labor nput, but t wll reduce the use prce of unt captal. Under the condton of a certan captal nput, the amount of captal nput wll ncrease, so the correspondng output curve wll change from Q to Q 2, and the optmal allocaton pont wll also change from E to E 2. From the fgure, t s obvous that the output of E 2 s hgher than E, so the output of new energy power enterprses wll ncrease, ths means the mplementaton of new energy and tax polces wll have a postve mpact on the ncrease of new energy sector output. The output of the tradtonal power sector wll be reduced when the total demand for electrcty remans unchanged. 3 Buldng model and data sources 3. Buldng model The model ncludes three knds of producton factors, they are labor, captal and deprecaton; and fve knds of enterprses, they are thermal power enterprses, hydroelectrc power enterprses, wnd power enterprses, solar power enterprses and general enterprses. In order to acheve the purpose of the study, the power sector s dvded nto thermal power sector, hydropower sector, wnd power sector and solar photovoltac power generaton sector. The man modules n the model are producton module, trade 3

4 module, ncome and expendture module, and nvestment savng module. Total output of power n the provnce 3... Producton module In the 3ED-CGE model, t s assumed that every producton department exsts as a compettve enterprse and every producton department can produce only one commodty or servce, and the scale of each enterprse remans unchanged. In the producton module, the CGE model uses a mult-layer nested constant replacement elastcty (CES) producton functon to descrbe the dfferent alternatves between dfferent producton factors. The producton structure s dvded nto fve levels. Accordng to the structure of the CES producton functon, the synthetc energy beam of electrc energy s decomposed nto thermal power, wnd power, hydropower and photovoltac power. The specfc decomposton equatons are as follows: The equaton (2) descrbed the electrc force energy synthetc bundle ( QELD ), whch s composed by thermal power ( QTHD ), wnd power ( QWID ), hydropower ( QHYD ) and solar energy ( QSOD ). And accordng to the structure of the CES producton functon, the equaton (3) to (5) represent the relatve prce functon of the two nput elements (the frst order condton of the CES producton functon) to determne the optmal nput combnaton, and the equaton (6) s the constrant bar for the producton departments to maxmze the proft. QQQQQQQQ = AA eeee [αα tth QQQQQQQQ ρρ tttthss + αα ww QQQQQQQQ ρρ tttthss + αα h tttthss ρρ QQQQQQQQ ( tth αα αα ww αα qq tttthss ρρ )QQQQQQQQ ρρ tttthss ] PPPPPPPP = αα tttthss tth ρρ ww PPPPPPPP αα (QQQQQQQQ ) QQQQQQQQ PPPPPPPP PPPPPPPP = PPPPPPPP = αα ww PPPPPPPP αα h ( QQQQQQQQ ) ρρ tttthss QQQQQQQQ qqqq αα ( αα tth αα ww αα h ( QQQQQQQQ ) ρρ tttthss ) QQQQQQQQ (2) (3) (4) (5) PPPPPPPP QQQQQQQQ = PPPPPPPP QQQQQQQQ + PPPPPPPP QQQQQQQQ + PPPPPPPP QQQQQQQQ + PPPPPPPP QQQQQQQQ (6) Trade module The electrc power produced n the Inner Mongola regon, n addton to ts own use, s also transported to North Chna, Northeast, Mongola and other regons and countres, and the power does not to be transferred nto and mported to the provnce (as shown n fgure 3). Thus n ths module, the electrcty produced Fgure 3. Inner Mongola electrc power trade chart n the provnce s composed of three parts: supply n provnce, sell to other provnces, and export, and ths s descrbed by the constant transformaton elastcty (CET) functon Income and expendture module = PK shfent QKD + transfrent lgov YENTA + transfr entcgov (7) The equaton (7) defnes that the ncome of the new energy enterprse ( YENTA )manly comes from the captal reture ( PK shf government ( ent transfrent lg ov QKD )and the local ) and the central government ( transfr entcgov ) for the transfer payment of the enterprse. ent EENTA = transfrhent + CINT + YENT (8) Equaton (8) represents enterprse expendture ( EENTA ) ncludng transfer payment to resdents, enterprse ncome tax ( CINT ) and other related taxes and fees ( ent YENT ) Investment savng module In the Keynes equlbrum state, the wllngness of enterprses to nvest s equal to savngs. Therefore, the module desgn s as follows: PK ID DEPR = = = b b PC DK PK QKD (9) () () The equaton (9) descrbes that the captal nvestment prce of each department s determned by the product prce and the captal nvestment coeffcent matrx ( b = West Inner Mongola Power Grd ). The equaton () descrbes the captal nvestment demand ( ID ), whch s determned by the product of the captal Investment ( DK ) and the captal nvestment supply n provnce sell to other provnces export East Inner Mongol a Power Grd 4

5 coeffcent matrx of each department ( b = ); the equaton () descrbes the deprecaton of captal s determned by the captal prces ( PK ), captal demand quanttes ( QKD ) and captal deprecaton coeffcent ). ( SAV = ( HCSAV + HRSAV) + ( LGSAV + CGSAV) (2) The equaton (2) ndcates that the total savngs ( SAV ) s the government savngs (the sum of local government savngs and the central government savngs) and resdents' savngs (the sum of urban and rural resdents savngs). ID = SAV (3) Equaton (3) ndcates that captal nvestment demands equal to total savngs. 3.2 Data source and program test When determnng the elastcty of substtuton of the model, the characterstcs of Inner Mongola's economy are needed to be taken nto account [5][6]. Because the substtuton elastcty rate has great nfluence on the stuaton smulaton results, the senstvty test s carred out n ths paper. On the bass of the base perod value, the smulaton results are calculated and obtaned after the ncrease or decrease n proporton. The analyss results show that the model s stable and the smulaton results are credble. The mpacts of the reasonable range on the smulaton results are not sgnfcant, so the smulaton results are credble. On the bass of the above senstvty tests, consstency and homogenety tests were carred out before runnng the GAMS program. Frst, the consstency check refers to whether the relevant data n the base perod SAM are calbrated for the CGE parameter, and whether the soluton obtaned by the Walras varable s zero to predct the base perod s the same as the value of the base perod SAM; second, the prce homogeneous test, f a set of prce vectors s the soluton of the equaton group, then the vector of any postve multple vectors of ths vector s the same. The soluton of the model accords wth the condton of zero order prce of CGE model. The above tests ensure the correctness and scentfcalness of the model. 4 Scenaro smulaton and result analyss 4. Desgnng scenaro scheme The fnancal subsdes to the new energy generaton enterprses are concentrated n the operaton of the power plant, and n ths lnk the polces are standardzed, sustanable, easy to quantfy, and the subsdes n the operaton of the power plant have drect mpact on the lfe of the resdents and the producton of the enterprses. Therefore, the research obects are fnance and taxaton polces n the operaton stage of new energy generaton enterprses. Combnng wth the exstng fnancal and tax polces and new energy development targets n Inner Mongola, we compared the effects of dfferent fnancal subsdes and tax rates on the economy. The specfc content are shown n Table. Scenaro name Scenaro Scenaro 2 Scenaro 3 Scenaro 4 Scenaro 5 Table. Scenaro schemes From 28, PV and wnd subsdes wll be reduced by.333 yuan /kwh and.66 yuan /kwh per annum respectvely, and the subsdy wll reach by 22. From 28, PV and wnd subsdes wll be reduced by.753 yuan /kwh and.336 yuan /kwh per annum respectvely, and the subsdy wll reach by 23. From 28 to 23, the on-grd tarff subsdes are the same as n 27. From 28 to 23, the on-grd tarff subsdes are the same as n 27. From 28 to 23, the on-grd tarff subsdes are the same as n 27. Scenaro contents From 28 to 22, the ncome tax rate s 5%; from 22 to 23, the ncome tax rate s 25%. From 28 to 23, the value added tax rate s 8.5%. From 28 to 22, the ncome tax rate s 5%; from 22 to 23, the ncome tax rate s 25%. From 28 to 23, the value added tax rate s 8.5%. From 28 to 23, the ncome tax rate s 5%. From 28 to 23, the value added tax rate s 8.5%. From 28 to 22, the ncome tax rate s 5%; from 22 to 23, the ncome tax rate s 25%. From 28 to 23, the value added tax rate s 6%. From 28 to 22, the ncome tax rate s 5%; from 22 to 23, the ncome tax rate s 25%. From 28 to 23, the value added tax rate s 8.5%. 4.2 The analyss of smulaton results In order to accurately descrbe the mpacts of each scenaro the smulaton results of scenaro to 5 are respectvely subtracted from the baselne scenaro smulaton results, and then the mpacts of each scenaro on the economy of the Inner Mongola are analyzed The mpacts on the macro-economy The mplementaton of the new energy fnancal subsdes and tax polcy can affect the varous aspects of the regonal economc system. Ths artcle manly studed from the GDP, rate of employment and resdents' welfare. () The mpacts on GDP 5

6 Unt:bllon Scenaro Scenaro 2 Scenaro 3 Scenaro 4 Scenaro 5 Fgure 4. Changes n Real GDP From fgure 4, we could see that the fnancal subsdes and tax polces of dfferent schemes had dfferent effects on GDP. From the aspect of fnancal subsdes, before 22, scenaro was more effectve than scenaro 2 and 5 n promotng the growth of GDP. New energy as a new ndustry, the reducton of subsdy could ncrease GDP. As tme goes on, compared wth scenaro 5, the promoton effect of scenaro and 2 was more and more obvous. Ths showed that the development of the new energy ndustry was gradually becomng mature, and the mplementaton of the slope subsdy mechansm could promote the healthy development of the economy. Ths s due to the approprate subsdes can promote the healthy development of the ndustry. In the stage of ndustral formaton, the support of the government ncreased the compettveness of enterprses. When the ndustry has developed to a mature stage, the government should gradually wthdraw from the market and release the vtalty of the market. Ths not only mproved the effcency of fnancal captal, but also promoted further economc growth. From the aspect of tax polces, the reducton of ncome tax had a postve mpact on GDP. In the long term, compared wth the 25% ncome tax rate of scenaro 4, the tax rate dropped to 5% of the scenaro 3 promoted GDP more sgnfcant. The substantal reducton of the ncome tax rate greatly reduced the cost of new energy power generaton, and the electrcty prce decreased accordngly, thus the producton department could reduce the electrcty consumpton cost. The added value of the second ndustry n Inner Mongola accounted for about 5% of the gross domestc product. Low electrcty prce provded a strong condton to promote the producton sector's output, whch would promote faster growth of the economy. By contrastng scenaro 4 and 5, 8.5% and 6% of the VAT rate had a relatvely close mpact on GDP. Ths was probably because the new energy power generaton enterprses' wnd, lght and other raw materals had no entry deducton that made the actual value added tax stll hgher, so the effect of reducng the value-added tax rate by 2.5% had a small mpact on GDP. (2)The mpacts on the employment rate Unt:% Fgure 5. Changes n the Employment Rate The new energy fnance and taxaton polcy had a smlar mpact on the employment rate to GDP. From the aspect of fnancal subsdes, n the short term, n the scenaro 3 the nvestment and constructon of new energy power generaton enterprses were more actve, whch had led to hgher labor demand. But n the long run, the hgher and fxed subsdy was less than the backslde subsdy n labor demand. From the aspect of tax polces. In scenaro 3, the 5% ncome tax rate n years played a sgnfcant role n promotng employment. However, after the value added tax rate was reduced from 8.5% to 6%, the employment rate declned over tme. The possble reason s that the reducton of value-added tax encourages the (3)The mpacts of the welfare of the resdents Unt:bllon Unt:bllon.5 Scenaro Scenaro 2 Scenaro 3 Scenaro 4 Scenaro Scenaro Scenaro 2 Scenaro 3 Scenaro 4 Scenaro 5 Fgure 6. Changes n Urban resdents' welfare Scenaro Scenaro 2 Scenaro 3 Scenaro 4 Scenaro 5 Fgure 7. Changes n rural resdents' welfare output of new energy power. In the case of constant power demand, new energy power produces a substtute for tradtonal power. As the demand for new generaton of power generaton s far lower than that of thermal power generaton, the employment rate of resdents n the whole regon s decreasng. Ths paper took resdents' consumpton demand as an ndcator of resdents' welfare. The result of the scenaro smulaton was shown n fgure 6 and fgure 7. In terms of fnancal subsdes, the mplementaton of scenaro and 2 wth back slope mechansm enhanced the demand level of resdents. The reducton of fnancal expendture 6

7 for new energy enterprses would ncrease transfer payments to resdents and other ndustres, so the demand level of resdents may be mproved. In terms of taxaton, fgure 6 and fgure 7 shown that the lower the ncome tax, the hgher the resdents' welfare. These fgures also shown the lower the VAT, the lower the welfare of the urban resdents and the rural resdents. Further more, the declne of urban resdents' welfare was more obvous The mpacts on tradtonal power and new energy power output The fscal and tax polces promoted the output of Unt:mllon Scenaro Scenaro 2 Scenaro 3 Scenaro 4 Scen5aro Fgure 8. Changes n Output of Hydroelectrc Power Unt:bllon Scenaro Scenaro 2 Scenaro 3 Scenaro 4 Scenaro 5 Fgure 9. Changes n Output of Thermal Power the latter. In terms of fnancal subsdes, the ncentve effect of scenaro and 2 for all knds of electrcty generaton enterprses was better than scenaro 5. Therefore, after 22, the mplementaton of the new energy power zero subsdy polcy could not only save fnancal funds, but also had no negatve mpact on the development of new energy power ndustry. Government support gradually reduced to zero subsdy not only could enhance the compettveness of new energy enterprses, but also mproved the margnal utlty of fnancal funds. Before 23, the promoton of the two subsdes to the electrcty output of new energy was hgher than that of the tradtonal power, and the proporton of new energy n electrcty energy was rsng. It showed that the new energy power output under two subsdy polces occuped an absolute advantage. Among them, scenaro was the best way to promote the output of new energy. In terms of taxaton, fgure and fgure shown that the lower the ncome tax and VAT rate, the hgher the output of new energy power. After 22, mantanng 5% of the ncome tax rate led to the new energy output to ncrease effectvely. If 25% of the ncome tax rate was mplemented after 22, the electrcty output could declne sgnfcantly. In the long term, the fscal and tax polcy of scenaro 3 was benefcal to mantan the hgher level of tradtonal and new energy power output. When the tax rate of VAT reduced from 8.5 to 6%, the promoton effect of the electrcty output was gradually reduced, but the effect on the output of new energy electrcty was far greater than that of the tradtonal power, whch made the consumpton of new energy ncrease sgnfcantly. Ths meant ths polcy optmzed the structure of electrcty and energy demand. Unt:bllon Scenaro Scenaro 2 Scenaro 3 Scenaro 4 Scenaro 5 Unt:bllon Scenaro Scenaro 2 Scenaro 3 Scenaro 4 Scenaro 5 Fgure 2. Changes n Output of Gas Unt:mllon Fgure. Changes n Output of Wnd Power Scenaro Scenaro 2 Scenaro 3 Scenaro 4 Scenaro 5 Fgure. Changes n Output of Photovoltac Power Unt:bllon Scenaro Scenaro 2 Scenaro 3 Scenaro 4 Scenaro 5 Fgure 3. Changes n Output of Coal new energy power and tradtonal power, but the promoton of the former was much hgher than that of 7

8 Unt:bllon Scenaro Scenaro 2 Scenaro 3 Scenaro 4 Scenaro 5 Fgure 4. Changes n Output of Petroleum The mpacts on fossl energy output The mpacts of fscal subsdy polces on the output of the fossl energy were shown n fgure 2, fgure 3 and fgure 4. Through the omparson of scenaro, 2 and 5, we could see that amounts of subsdes drectly affected the sze of the ncrease n fossl output. The more subsdes scenaro had, the greater the mpact. And by 23, the mpact of scenaro reached the maxmum. In addton, In the early perod, scenaro and 2 change rapdly, but n the later perod the stuaton was the opposte stuaton. On the tax sde, the scenaro wth lower tax rate, the more the output t had. The lower tax rate of the new energy enterprses reduced the prce of new energy power, and then reduced the producton cost of the electrcty use sectors, thus t stmulated the expanson of the economy scale. As the expanson of the economy was much more stmulatng to the output of the coal sector, t was far greater than the nhbton effect of the new energy power generaton enterprses. Natural gas showed an ncreasng state. The expanson of the economy stmulated the output of the coal sector, and ths effect was far greater than the nhbton effect of new energy power generaton enterprses. Therefore, coal, ol and petroleum all shown an ncreasng state under the preferental tax scenaros. 5 Conclusons Ths paper used dynamc 3ED-CGE model to compare the economc mpact of dfferent new energy fnance and taxaton polces. Accordng to the results of polcy scenaro smulatons, the mplementaton of fscal and taxaton polces of new energy ndustres has some mpacts on economc growth, welfare of resdents, electrcty output, and fossl energy output. In terms of fnancal subsdes, the mplementaton of the fscal subsdy method wth declnng slope has a good effect on promotng GDP growth, ncreasng employment rate and mprovng the welfare of resdents, but t cannot effectvely promote the adustment of energy demand structure. After 22, the mplementaton of the party scheme for wnd power and solar photovoltac power enterprses wll not have a negatve mpact on the development of the economy and new energy ndustry. In terms of value added tax, after the expry of the preferental tax polcy for the development of the western regon, the new energy plant can contnue to be mplemented the preferental tax polcy wth a duty rate of 5%. In terms of ncome tax, 8.5% ncome tax rate has lttle dfference from 6% ncome tax rate on GDP growth, employment ncrease and resdents' welfare mprovement, however, the effect of 6% of the ncome tax on the adustment of the electrcty demand structure s obvously better than that of 8.5%. Acknowledgments Ths work s fnancally supported by the Natonal Natural Scence Foundaton of Chna (736337), Inner Mongola Natural Scence Foundaton (26MS78), and Inner Mongola Socal Scence Foundaton(25A). References. Y. Wang, N. L, B. Yuan, F. Zhang, J. Feng.Dscusson on the problem of "reasonable abandonng energy" n power system plannng wth large proporton of new energy sources [J]. Chna Electrc Power Company, 5():8-4(27) 2. Y. Dng, L. Xu. Research on fscal and tax polcy effects of Chna's new energy ndustry [J]. Economc Research Reference, 38: 33-48(25) 3. Y. Yu. Subsdy demand and tax burden effect of Chna's wnd and solar tarff polcy [J]. Fnance and Trade Research, 3: 6-6(26) H. He, D. Sh, S. Xu. Tax polcy orentaton to promote the development of low carbon economy and new energy ndustry [J]. Tax Research, 9: 8-2(22) 5. X. Wang, W. Ca, W. Tang. Research on the tax polcy system of Chna's new energy ndustry [J]. Tax Research,5:-5(2) 6. Y. Wang. Development course and Countermeasure of renewable energy polcy n Chna [C]. Renewable Energy Development and Utlzaton Semnar, 4:6-9(28) 7. J. K. An. Integrated Tme-dependng Feasblty Analyss Model of Wnd Energy Applcatons n Greece[J]. Energy Polcy. 3:267-28(22) 8. Q. Lu. Analyss of fscal subsdy effect of new energy lsted Companes n Chna [D]. Anhu Unversty( 23) 9. J. Ma. Research on fscal and taxaton polces to promote the development of clean energy n Chna [D]. Chna Unversty of Geoscences (Beng)(25). S. Yang. The economc mpact and mprovement drecton of Chna's renewable energy subsdy polcy: takng wnd power as an example [J]. Journal of Yunnan Unversty of Fnance and 8

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