THE SPECTRE OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN SUB SAHARAN AFRICA,CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES BY PROF.(DR.) RICHARD S. ODINGO

Transcription

1 THE SPECTRE OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN SUB SAHARAN AFRICA,CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES BY PROF.(DR.) RICHARD S. ODINGO

2 THE SPECTER OF CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL AND MUST BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY The reality of global as well as regional climate change is no longer disputable, and all nations must now take stock of what this will mean for their economies in the not too distant future. For those who are still doubting the latest news availed to the press last week that the glacier melt in Antarctica is advancing fast was but the final blow to their stubbornness.

3 WHAT THE IPCC SAID ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE During the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report which we released in 2007, Working Group I of the IPCC put the climate change picture in the following words: Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising average global sea level.

4 GLOBAL OBSERVATIONS Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate change particularly temperature increases. The oceans surrounding Africa are no exception and there is already evidence of temperature increases and sea level rise in our own region in Eastern Africa,

5 CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE We know the culprits very well. They are as follows: Increased emission of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs), and aerosols Global GHG emissions due to human activities Carbon Dioxide is the largest culprit Other GHGs are Methane and N 2 O and HFCs.

6 The Earth s Atmosphere and the Greenhouse effect

7 INCREASE IN CARBON DIOXIDE (CO2) CONCENTRATION The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration increased from 280 ppm (pre-industrial) to 379 ppm in 2005; The 2005 value exceeds by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years (180 to 300 ppm); Annual CO 2 concentration growth-rate (avg. 1.9ppm/yr) was larger during the last 10 years ( ) than it has been since the beginning of continuous direct atmospheric measurements ( average: 1.4 ppm per year)

8 Increase In Methane (CH4) Concentrations The global atmospheric concentration of CH4 increased from 715 ppb (preindustrial value) to 1,732 ppb in the early 1990s, and is 1,774 ppb in 2005; The 2005 value exceeds by far the natural range of the last 650,000 years (320 to 790 ppb); It is very likely that the observed increase in CH4 concentration is due to anthropogenic activities, predominantly agriculture and fossil fuel use; Growth rates have declined since the early 1990s.

9 Increase In Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Concentrations The global atmospheric concentration of N 2 O increased from 270ppb (a pre-industrial value) to 319 ppb in The growth rate has been approximately constant since More than a third of all nitrous oxide emissions are anthropogenic and are primarily due to agriculture.

10 GLOBAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC has demonstrated that changes are global particularly in respect of temperature rises, Polar ice caps are melting fast, and this now includes the ice caps of Antarctica, Less conservative scientists in the IPCC are beginning to talk freely about the breaking point, which can be reached without warning, and which would set the world on a spiral.

11 SENSITIVITY - a measure of the climate system response to sustained radiative forcing The equilibrium climate sensitivity is defined as the global average surface warming following a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations. The equilibrium climate sensitivity is likely to be in the range 2 to 4.5 C with a best estimate of about 3 C, and is very unlikely to be less than 1.5 C. Values substantially higher than 4.5 C cannot be excluded

12 Support from Paleoclimatic Studies Average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were very likely higher than during any other 50-year period in the last 500 years and likely the highest in at least the past 1300 years. Global average sea level in the last interglacial period (about 125,000 years ago) was likely 4 to 6 m higher than during the 20th century, mainly due to the retreat of polar ice. Ice core data indicate that average polar temperatures at that time were 3 to 5 C higher than present, because of differences in the Earth s orbit. The Greenland ice sheet and other Arctic ice fields likely contributed no more than 4 m of the observed sea level rise.

13 THE REALITY OF GLOBAL WARMING In line with IPCC AR4 findings, global warming is already a reality even though it may not be uniform throughout the world. Whether we look at the world as a whole, or whether we isolate each region for a better look, the message is the same: TEMPERATURES ARE GOING UP, AND WILL EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE

14 OBSERVATIONS (Continued) Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.

15 Global-average radiative forcing (RF) estimates and ranges in 2005 for CO2, CH4 & N2O The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved since the Third Assessment Report (TAR); There is now very high confidence that the globally averaged net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] W m-2. RF (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O) - RF (Aerosols, Cloud Albedo) + RF (Ozone, Halocarbons, Surface Albedo + Others) + RF (Solar Irradiance) = 1.6 W/m 2

16 Global-average radiative forcing (RF) estimates and ranges in 2005 for CO 2, CH 4 & N 2 O

17 Changes in Arctic Temperatures Average Arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global average rate in the past 100 years and a warm period was observed from 1925 to Annual average Arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7 % per decade, with larger decreases in summer of 7.4 % per decade. Temperatures at the top of the permafrost layer have generally increased since the 1980s in the Arctic (by up to 3 C). The maximum area covered by seasonally frozen ground has decreased by about 7% in the Northern Hemisphere since 1900, with a decrease in spring of up to 15%.

18 Carbon dioxide is the largest contributor

19 WHAT TO EXPECT IN FUTURE TEMPERATURES GLOBALLY The IPCC has built scenarios of what might be expected in terms of global temperatures during this century, and at the end of the century (2100); Temperatures will vary from 2.5 degrees celsius to 7 degrees celsius; Regions close to the poles will experience higher increases than those near the Equator; The Scenarios maps show what to expect.

20 PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CHANGES IN CLIMATE For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2 C per decade is projected for a range of emission scenarios. Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1 C per decade would be expected; Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.

21 Projected warming in the 21st century is expected to be greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes, and least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic ocean

22 Changes in Precipitation, Increased Drought and Increase in Extreme Events Significantly increased precipitation has been observed in eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia. Drying has been observed in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia. Changes in precipitation and evaporation over the oceans are suggested by freshening of mid and high latitude waters together with increased salinity in low latitude waters. More intense and longer droughts have been observed over wider areas since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. Increased drying linked with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation have contributed to changes in drought.

23 Changes in Precipitation, Increased Drought and Increase in Extreme Events Significantly increased precipitation has been observed in eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia. Drying has been observed in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia. Changes in precipitation and evaporation over the oceans are suggested by freshening of mid and high latitude waters together with increased salinity in low latitude waters. More intense and longer droughts have been observed over wider areas since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics. Increased drying linked with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation have contributed to changes in drought.

24 DO WE NEED ANY LOCAL PROOF THAT ALL IS NOT WELL? We only need to look at what is happening to formerly extensive glaciers on Mounts Kenya and Kilimanjaro to remove any further doubts In the cas eof Mt. Kenya the glaciers have been disappearing quietly for a long time For Mt. Kilimanjaro the loss of glaciers has been more dramatic.

25 Disappearing Mt. Kenya Glaciers

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28 Lake Chad [from the TAR] This image set displays a continued decline in lake surface area from km 2 [8 843 square miles] in 1963 to a meager 304km 2 [117 square miles] in 2001

29 EXPECTED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN OUR REGION Temperature rise by up to 5 degrees C by year 2100, and at least 2 0 C by 2050 Mega droughts alternating with floods will be on the increase, and may be longer each time Water scarcity will begin to bite in many regions, and especially in the semi arid belts Loss of food production capacity due to decreasing yields, hence threat to food security

30 PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CHANGES IN CLIMATE Increases in the amount of precipitation are very likely in high-latitudes, while decreases are likely in most subtropical land regions.

31 PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE CHANGES IN CLIMATE For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2 C per decade is projected for a range of emission scenarios. Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1 C per decade would be expected; Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.

32 Sea Level Impacts on National Economy Coastal agriculture (e.g. plantations of palm oil and coconuts in Benin and Côte d Ivoire, shallots in Ghana) could be at risk of inundation and soil salinisation. In Cameroon, with an 11% decrease in rainfall, the salt water could extend up to about 70 km upstream. Decrease in rainfall and increase in sea level will contribute to the saline front of the River Gambia extending about 37 kilometres upstream leading to the secondary effects of a reduction in area of arable land and a decrease agricultural productivity. Sea Level Rise of one metre will inundate the Capital City of The Gambia

33 Inundation and Erosion of low lying lands will be exacerbated by climate variability and change, impacting severely on coastal settlements Projected sea level rise would increase flooding, particularly on the coasts of eastern Africa; Sea level rise will likely increase the high socioeconomic and physical vulnerability of coastal cities. The cost of adaptation to sea level rise could amount to at least 5 10% of GDP.

34 INCREASES IN EXTREME EVENTS One obvious list of impacts of projected climate change will be a marked increase in extreme events, such as droughts, floods, hurricanes, heat waves, high winds, and land slides; Africa has already had more than its fair share of droughts, such as the 1972 Sahelian Drought, and the 1984 Ethiopian Drought.

35 Rise In Frequency And Intensity Of Natural Disasters Droughts and floods severely impact on food and water security in Africa. Droughts and floods related to ENSO have had major human and economic costs in east Africa. The ENSO floods in 1998 in East Africa resulted in human suffering as well as extensive damage to infrastructure and crops. The major infrastructure damage was caused on road and rail network. Communications among human settlements in Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Tanzania were seriously disrupted, impeding movement of goods and persons in the region. 27 September 2011

36 Increasing Temperatures Are A Threat To Coral Reefs 27 September 2011 Coral reefs play a crucial role in fisheries production and in protecting the coastline from wave action and erosion. Coral reef productivity is a function of their structure, biological recycling, and high retention of nutrients. Severe coral bleaching can occur as a result of seawater warming. Major coral bleaching events have occurred in recent times. The last major event at the eastern coast of Africa was in As a result, many reefs dominated by branching species were severely damaged or killed. Climate related damage is further exacerbated by human land use along coasts and in major river basins through toxic material inputs to coastal ecosystems.

37 MORE GENERAL IMPACTS LISTED Agricultural production and food security Impacts on the energy sector Sea level rise threatening coastal zones, river deltas, and small island states Damage to the water sector Damage to the Tourism sector Damage to industry, settlement and society Threats to the Health Sector Damage to infrastructure

38 EXAMPLES OF IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE THE OVERALL IMPACTS EXPECTED ON AGRICULTURE ARE NEGATIVE THEY WILL INCLUDE REDUCTION IN CROP YIELDS,INCREASED LAND DEGRADATION, SHIFTS IN CROPPING ZONES AND THE DISAPPEARANCE OF SOME CROPS ALL TOGETHER WITHIN PARTICULAR ALTITUDES BECAUSE OF TEMPERATURE CHANGES

39 Agricultural production and food security in Africa Arid and semi arid land in Africa could increase by 5 8% (60 90 million hectares). Wheat production may likely disappear from Africa by the 2080s. Crop net revenues will likely fall by as much as 90% by 2100, with small scale farms being the most affected. It is estimated that by 2100, parts of the sub Sahara African will likely experience agricultural losses of between 2 and 7% of the GDP

40 MORE DETAIL ON AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS IS APPROPRIATE MOST AFRICAN COUNTRIES RELY ON RAIN FED AGRICULTURE IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE MEAN AN INCREASE IN RURAL POVERTY EVEN KNOWING THE FUTURE PROSPECTS, WE ARE NOT ABLE TO ADAPT FAST ENOUGH TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE

41 Agricultural production and food security in Africa Extreme wind and turbulence could decrease fisheries productivity by 50 60%, while turbulence will likely bring about a 10% decline in productivity on the spawning grounds; Warming of 2.5 C to 5 o C in Africa will likely increase small farm livestock income by 26% (+US$1.4 billion) and 58% (+US$3.2 billion), respectively. By contrast, a warming of 2.5 C will likely decrease large farm livestock by 22% ( 40 US$13 billion) and a warming of 5 C will likely reduce it by as much as 35% ( US$20 billion). Increased precipitation of 14% would likely reduce small farm livestock income by 10% ( US$ 0.6 billion). The same reduction in precipitation would likely reduce large farm livestock income by about 9% ( US$5 billion).

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43 27 September 2011

44 Already Bad Situation of Water Resources in Africa will be exacerbated Climate change and variability will likely impose additional pressures on water availability, water accessibility and water demand in Africa. The population at risk of increased water stress in Africa is projected to be between million people by 2020 and million people by the Northern Africa and southern Africa are likely to see increase in the number of people that could experience water stress by On the other hand, more people in eastern Africa and western Africa will likely experience a reduction rather than a water stress. A 3 C temperature increase could lead to billion more people at risk of water stress.

45 Agricultural production and food security in Africa Extreme wind and turbulence could decrease fisheries productivity by 50 60%, while turbulence will likely bring about a 10% decline in productivity on the spawning grounds; Warming of 2.5 C to 5 o C in Africa will likely increase small farm livestock income by 26% (+US$1.4 billion) and 58% (+US$3.2 billion), respectively. By contrast, a warming of 2.5 C will likely decrease large farm livestock by 22% ( 40 US$13 billion) and a warming of 5 C will likely reduce it by as much as 35% ( US$20 billion). Increased precipitation of 14% would likely reduce small farm livestock income by 10% ( US$ 0.6 billion). The same reduction in precipitation would likely reduce large farm livestock income by about 9% ( US$5 billion).

46 Anthropogenic Climate Change will negatively impact Human health in Africa By 2100, previously unsuitable areas of dense human population for distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe will become suitable for transmission. Strong southward expansion of the transmission zone will likely continue into South Africa. A 5 7% potential increase (mainly altitudinal) in malaria distribution is projected, with little increase in the latitudinal extent of the disease by Previously malaria free highland areas in Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda and Burundi could also experience modest changes to stable malaria by the 2050s, with conditions for transmission becoming highly suitable by the 2080s. It is estimated that by the 2080s an additional 80 million people will likely be at risk of malaria.

47 Anthropogenic Climate Change will negatively impact Human health in Africa Climate variability and change may also interact with other background stresses and additional vulnerabilities such as immuno compromised populations (HIV/AIDS) and conflict and war in the future, resulting in increased susceptibility and risk to other infectious diseases (e.g. cholera) and malnutrition. Climate change is expected to also affect both pathogen and vector habitat suitability through changes in moisture and temperature. Changes in disease distribution, range, prevalence, incidence and seasonality can be expected.

48 Climate Change damage to Ecosystems Climate variability and change, coupled with human induced changes, may also affect ecosystems (mangroves and coral reefs), with additional consequences on fisheries and tourism. The projection that sea level rise would increase flooding in low lying coastal areas will increase the physical and socio economic vulnerability of coastal cities.

49 Inundation and Erosion of low lying lands will be exacerbated by climate variability and change, impacting severely on coastal settlements Projected sea level rise would increase flooding, particularly on the coasts of eastern Africa; Sea level rise will likely increase the high socioeconomic and physical vulnerability of coastal cities. The cost of adaptation to sea level rise could amount to at least 5 10% of GDP.

50 Impacts on Tourism The economic benefits of tourism in Africa, which according to 2004 statistics accounts for 3% of worldwide tourism, may change with climate change. Flood risks and water pollution related diseases in lowlying regions (coastal areas) as well as coral reef bleaching as a result of climate change could impact negatively on tourism. African tourist places of interest, including wild life areas and parks, may also attract fewer tourists under marked climate changes. Climate change could, for example, lead to a poleward shift of centres of tourist activity and a shift from lowland to highland tourism.

51 IMPACTS ON RURAL COMMUNITIES Rural communities are more at risk from climate change impacts as compared with urban dwellers This is because of their flimsy resource based, and generally simple livelihoods Quite often the impacts may exceed the natural coping capacity of these rural communities

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54 The ECHAM4.5 model simulation of Interannual variability during the season October to December over Eastern Africa. Years ec45mean ec45m15 CRU_OBS ST_OBS Rain Index

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56 Agricultural production and food security in Africa Arid and semi arid land in Africa could increase by 5 8% (60 90 million hectares). Wheat production may likely disappear from Africa by the 2080s. Crop net revenues will likely fall by as much as 90% by 2100, with small scale farms being the most affected. In Egypt, for example, climate change could decrease national production of many crops (ranging from 11% for rice to 28% for soybeans) by the year It is estimated that by 2100, parts of the sub Sahara Africa will likely experience agricultural losses of between 2 and 7% of the GDP Tuesday, September 27,

57 Ethiopia A water rich developing country, but with GDP still tied to yearly rainfall variations % 0 Climate variability is already a major impediment to development rainfall variability GDP growth Ag GDP growth Preliminary results from : A Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy for Ethiopia year From Claudia Sadoff

58 THE DEVELOPMENT LINKAGE OF CLIMATE CHANGE African economies are very fragile, so fragile that they fluctuate with good rains and bad droughts as the Ethiopian Graph shows. It will take a long time to divorce our economies from climate variability, let alone climate change Steps by rich countries to help Africa should be appraised of this fact.

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60 Widespread flooding logging crops and even killing animals 60

61 Current Food Security Status: Affected Population and Underlying Issues Million 0.13M Recurrent climate extremes (drought & floods) in marginal areas 1.3M 6.4M Conflict and civil insecurity Transboundary diseases 0.7M 2.7M 3.2M Hyperinflation/Market disruption Declining Pastoral Terms of Trade IDPs and refugees Poverty/Malnutrition Source: FEWS NET Policies

62 SUBMERGED REFUGEE CAMPS IN KENYA

63 DROUGHT loss of livestock 63

64 No Comment 34

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66 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN KENYA WE ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE DROUGHTS AND FLOODS GLACIAL MELT LAND SLIDES HIGHLAND MALARIA SEA LEVEL RISE

67 FOREST DESTRUCTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE THE LINK BETWEEN DEFORESTATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE IS OBVIOUS RIVERS DRY UP AND THERE IS INCREASED FREQUENCY OF DROUGHTS AND FLOODS IN KENYA WE HAVE LESS THAN 2% OF OUR LAND UNDER FOREST

68 AFRICA IS THE MOST VULNERABLE CONTINENTS OF THE GLOBE Africa will experience severe impacts due to climate change and climate variability + Africa has the lowest capacity to Adapt to Projected Climate Change = AFRICA IS THE MOST VULNERABLE CONTINENT OF THE GLOBE

69 WAYS TO ASSIST AFRICA TO DEAL WITH CONSEQUENCES OF CHANGE Ideally the common problems of Africa should be handled by a Marshall Plan Unfortunately there is no country in the world today generous enough to do that Most of the suggested soluyions to African problems are tokenistic and of little effect Creating commissions which are ill thought out and poorly funded will remain tokenistic

70 ADAPTATION MEASURES WHICH WILL BE REQUIRED TO MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGE For developing countries like those in our region, adaptation is the onl option left to us to respond to climate change. Adaptation strategies will depend on the nature of impacts, and on the availability of the requisite technology to deal with the problem Island states like the Maldives which are barely a metre above sea level have little room for manouver.

71 ADAPTATION CONTINUED Evacuation may be the only option available to island states, and island situations like Lamu in Kenya. Coastal Zone management is a term used to cover many deliberate aspects of adaptation which are intended to preempt the worst impacts of climate change. Adaptation to frequent floods, sea level rise, coastal zone erosion requires planning.

72 ADAPTING TO INCREASED STORM FREQUENCY In coastal situations adapting to increased storm frequency due to changes in direction of cyclones may involve relocation of the population as in Mozambique or even Madagascar. Adaptation to coral bleaching of fishing sites at the coast is more difficult and costly. Re location of infrastructure, such as roads may be called for.

73 LONG TERM ADAPTATION STRATEGIES Long term adaptation strategies must involve the mainstreaming of climate change in all our planning processes. They may include any of the following: a) water harvesting programmes, and improved water supply systems b)flood hazard mapping as part of improved flood protection

74 LONG TERM ADAPTATION STRATEGIES II c)introduction of early warning systems and insurance schemes; d) Improved technological applications in agriculture to preempt droughts and reduced rainfall regimes. IN THE FINAL ANALYSIS GOVERNMENTS MUST ADOPT PROACTIVE STRATEGIES TO MAKE ADAPTATION A NECESSARY PLANNING TOOL

75 HOW CAN AFRICA ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE Africa has developed several coping strategies to adapt to current climate variability but these will be inadequate to adapt to climate change; A range of factors including technology, education, information, skills, infrastructure, access to resources, and various psychological factors and management capabilities determine the adaptive capacity of a nation or continent. Africa is very poor in most of these factors; HENCE, ADAPTIVE CAPACITY OF AFRICA IS VERY LOW

76 HOW CAN AFRICA ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE Africa has developed several coping strategies to adapt to current climate variability but these will be inadequate to adapt to climate change; A range of factors including technology, education, information, skills, infrastructure, access to resources, and various psychological factors and management capabilities determine the adaptive capacity of a nation or continent. Africa is very poor in most of these factors; HENCE, ADAPTIVE CAPACITY OF AFRICA IS VERY LOW

77 WAYS TO ASSIST AFRICA TO DEAL WITH CONSEQUENCES OF CHANGE Ideally the common problems of Africa should be handled by a Marshall Plan Unfortunately there is no country in the world today generous enough to do that Most of the suggested soluyions to African problems are tokenistic and of little effect Creating commissions which are ill thought out and poorly funded will remain tokenistic

78 IS IT WISE TO FORCE AFRICA TO MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGE? In the last four or so years there have been frantic efforts to force or entice Africa to mitigate the impacts of climate change. In particular there have been offers of funds to commit African countries into REDD and REDD+. The conditionalities attached to these proposals need to be studied carefully to avoid creating confusion.

79 THANKS A LOT THAT IS ALL!