Caravan. Dealing with Drought. Review of agriculture in the dry areas. Predicting the Threat of Water Scarcity. Closing the Productivity Gap

Transcription

1 Issue 26/1, 2010 Review of agriculture in the dry areas Dealing with Drought Predicting the Threat of Water Scarcity Closing the Productivity Gap Raising Legume Productivity for Dryland Farmers Synergy in Dryland Crop Management Learning to Live with Less...and more

2 C aravan ICARDA Issue 26/1, 2010 Drought Here and Now High resolution climate mapping in Central Asia reveals the risk of drought Predicting the threat of Water Scarcity 2 4 Land suitability studies show drought to be an emerging threat in Iran's breadbasket Closing the Productivity Gap Simple, cost-effective coping technologies for farmers and herders affected by drought 6 Secured, Scrutinized and Applied Dryland crops are prime sources of genes for drought tolerance. Their conservation is an urgent priority 12 Raising Legume Productivity for Dryland Farmers Cultivating food legumes will become even more important under future drought conditions 9 Also... Synergy in Dryland Crop 14 Management Proof of the Product 16 Adding Value to Staying Put 18 Drought Confronted Where 20 it Lurks Learning to Live with Less 22 A Boon to Persian Pasta 24 Writer / Editor Peter Fredenburg / Jack Durrell Design Waleed Sawalha ISBN ICARDA 2010 is published by ICARDA. P. O. Box 114/5055, Beirut, Lebanon icarda@cgiar.org ICARDA encourages fair use of the articles published in, provided the source is quoted. Please send us a copy of the article or link to web pages where material is used. The opinions expressed are those of the authors, not necessarily those of ICARDA. Maps are used primarily to illustrate research results, not to show political or administrative boundaries.

3 01 Foreword The dry areas of the developing world occupy a fifth of global land area and are home to a third of humanity. Some 16% of these people are chronically poor. Especially vulnerable are farming and herding communities in marginal rainfed areas, where drought is the cruelest of age-old scourges and the most significant modern threat under climate change. Drought intensifies every other challenge facing the dry areas: rapid population growth, high climatic variability, land degradation and desertification, and widespread poverty. Poverty and other social problems spur unsustainable agriculture, natural resource degradation, and migration away from depressed rural areas into cities. Sprawling slums often overwhelm migrants intention to remit funds home, compounding the loss to the families they left behind. As drought deepens food insecurity and poverty, and further cramps access to natural resources, desperation drives people to abuse resources, worsening the effects of drought and often causing conflict, which drives solutions to these and other problems further out of reach. Worsening drought and rising mean temperatures are expected to decrease mean annual rainfall in many marginal dry areas, speed evapotranspiration and the loss of soil moisture, diminish river flows, and stiffen heat stress late in shortened growing seasons. Coastal and inland salinization is likely to contaminate many heretofore reliable natural aquifers that began supporting agriculture and civilizations thousands of years ago. Some previously productive fields and rangelands have already become unsuitable for cultivation or grazing, and some long-populated dry areas may soon be uninhabitable. Farmers and herders need technical options that are environmentally sustainable and economically and socially appropriate, allowing them to safeguard their food security, improve their incomes, maintain their way of life and pursue their aspirations. Policy and institutional reform must ensure the timely delivery of these options to poor primary producers and their equitable access to markets. The International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) works with national, regional and international partners to research and promote solutions to drought. Proven interventions include improved crop varieties, innovative integrated cropping and livestock systems, equitable access to natural resources and their sustainable use, and social development that turns the poor, vulnerable and marginalized, including women, into change agents actively improving their own circumstances. This issue of focuses on drought. The ICARDA-led research reported here maps the risk of drought and considers how worsening drought and desertification will affect the suitability of land for crops both old and new. It examines strategies farmers and herders can use to cope with drought, as well as the genetic resources with which breeders can create new crop varieties that tolerate drought and its associated stresses. And it explores new products and value chains by which rural communities can diversify and strengthen their incomes during uncertain times ahead. Mahmoud Solh Director General, ICARDA

4 02 ICARDA Drought Here and Now New high-resolution climate mapping of Central Asia reveals the risk of drought more effectively in the region s many local agro-climates. Adryland region far from the sea, Central Asia is prone to drought which can devastate agriculture the sector consumes 84% of the region s water resources and directly supports the livelihoods of 29% of its population. In addition to the adverse impacts of variable precipitation, farmland and water bodies are degraded by unsustainable irrigation systems built before independence. Worsening water scarcity and more frequent droughts threaten regional food security in ways that are little understood, especially with the impacts of climate change. Central Asia supports diverse agricultural ecologies, each prone to drought in its own way. Planners in the region therefore require climate change and weather forecasts that offer much finer resolution than has previously been available. The modeling of climate change in the 2007 fourth assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) falls short of planners needs because the results are too coarse to take into account the small weather patterns that govern conditions for local farm communities. Further, its projections are for , which is a time horizon too remote for immediate planning, and the various global circulation models (GCMs) the assessment incorporates yield results that are sometimes starkly contradictory. This is especially so in mountainous areas because the GCMs fail to model the complex ways in which mountains impinge on circulation flows and interact with the weather. As Central Asia contains two of the world s highest mountain ranges the Tien Shan and Pamir, both rising above 7,000 meters the GCMs inadequate accommodation of topography is a particular concern. IMPROVING CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTIONS With funding from the Asian Development Bank, researchers from ICARDA set out in 2009 to improve the mapping of future drought and other effects of climate change in Central Asia to better inform policy makers as they consider how to adapt to these changes and mitigate their effects. The project produced maps downscaled to a resolution of one square kilometer, predicting climate effects under various scenarios for three time frames starting in The downscaling was accomplished by overlaying coarse-gridded GCM change fields on to current high-resolution climate grids. To handle the massive amounts of data required, researchers developed an automated process using geographic information system technology. An alternative method, statistical downscaling, was not feasible for lack of data and the resulting challenge of establishing individual statistical relationships for each weather station and GCM. Another alternative, dynamic downscaling using regional models, was attractive for its ability to accommodate complex topography, but the diversity of dynamic downscaling methods demanded by the GCMs would leave this approach flawed as well as methodologically and computationally challenging.

5 03 The study considered the three most commonly used scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions. The first foresees rapid economic growth and convergence among the regions of the world, with the global population peaking at midcentury and falling thereafter. The second and most pessimistic scenario foresees no such convergence but continuously growing population and carbon emissions. The third scenario resembles the first but with fewer emissions. Researchers crunched the numbers from 17 of the 23 GCMs reported in the IPCC, selecting those that had the required dataset. Data proliferated to cover the four climatic variables (rainfall and maximum, minimum and mean temperature), three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, three time horizons of interest ( , and ), and outputs of each GCM. Processing the data within a reasonable time frame required industrial-strength automation applied over several steps: extracting data from the GCMs change mapping at coarse resolution resampling for finer resolution by computing for each pixel the weighted average of the 16 nearest pixels correcting the precipitation maps to avoid computationally problematic negative and zero readings generating downscaled climate surfaces RISING TEMPERATURES The study confirmed agreement among the selected GCMs: every model predicted significant warming over the entire region. However, there was no consensus on precipitation since the models disagreed on the extent of change and even its direction. Some projections show significant annual rainfall losses in the southwest of Central Asia moderating toward the center of the region, and tipping over to rainfall gains in most of the region, especially the north and east. The map shows the predicted relative change in mean annual precipitation across Central Asia from 1980/1999 to 2080/2099 under the first scenario described above, the result derived by averaging 21 GCM. Relative change of mean annual precipitation 1980/1999 to 2080/2099, average of 21 GCMs Legend 10-15% decrease 5-10% decrease 0-5% decrease An average of model results shows most of Central Asia becoming somewhat wetter in the 21st century, but viewing the region at this scale fails to capture the local risk of more frequent and severe drought. More accurate methods would be necessary for downscaling of the GCMs, especially for the high mountain areas. Worsening water scarcity and more frequent droughts threaten regional food security in ways that are little understood, especially with the impacts of climate change. 0-5% increase 5-10% increase 10-15% increase High mountains and arid lowlands mean that agriculture in Central Asia already depends heavily on melt flows from alpine glaciers and snow. This upstream-downstream dependency complicates the task of computing For more information contact: Dr Eddie De-Pauw Head of GIS Unit - ICARDA e.de-pauw@cgiar.org Map prepared by the ICARDA GIS Unit. drought risks in particular downstream localities since precipitation variability and rising temperatures due to climate change affect the release of alpine moisture. The study produced 11,286 maps, including 5,184 high-resolution maps of future climate change which will be aggregated and used to analyze drought and other impacts caused by shifting agro-climatic zones. This will help agricultural policy makers and other stakeholders determine which areas will continue to be, or become, suitable for particular crops. It will also help to predict the growing seasons in these areas. However, nagging inconsistencies in the modeling long recognized for precipitation and now revealed by this study for local temperatures as well point to the need for further research.

6 04 Predicting the Threat of Water Scarcity A study of land suitability for winter wheat in the Karkheh River basin shows drought to be the main emerging threat to agricultural productivity in this Iranian breadbasket. Success in agriculture critically depends on growing crops in their proper environments. For each crop, ideal conditions for cultivation reflect primarily soil type, topography, temperature and rainfall. Each crop has a broader range of environments within which conditions may be less than perfect but still allow a large enough harvest to make growing it worthwhile. Crop growing areas have naturally developed where conditions are suitable at least most of the time, as drought, flooding, excessive wind or weather that favors insect pests or crop disease can render even the most favorable growing environment temporarily unsuitable. Many farmers are not lucky enough to have highly favorable land for the crops they need to grow. Many cultivate land that is prone to drought because they have no viable livelihood alternatives. Helping dryland farmers cope with chronic water shortage and periodic drought has long been an ICARDA research priority. SHIFTING AGRO-CLIMATIC ZONES Today, climate change is starting to cause agro-climatic zones to shift. In many cases, this is making areas historically suitable for crops more prone to drought, extreme temperatures or storm damage - and in some cases making heretofore less-suitable land better for agriculture. Climate change will likely cause agro-climatic zones to shift much too quickly for farmers to adapt. Most will be unable to change land use and crop preferences on their own, and require help from policy makers who need information about changing land suitability and how it affects their constituents. In the Karkheh River basin of Iran, ICARDA has demonstrated how to assess the current and future suitability of land for winter wheat under various climate change scenarios using a climate-soil-site model generated through a geographic information

7 05 system. Study results show declining rainfall and higher drought risk to be the primary factors rendering land less suitable. The Karkheh Basin occupies 50,700 square kilometers of western Iran, its elevation rising from three meters above mean sea level to 3,645 meters. It is Iran s third largest basin and its most productive. The study first assessed land suitability in a study area in the basin in , which for the purposes of the model is the present. It defined highly suitable land as having optimal conditions, allowing sustainable yields year after year; moderately suitable land as allowing a crop yield averaging 60-80% of optimal conditions using economically feasible inputs; and marginally suitable land allowing a yield of 40-60% of optimal conditions. Unsuitable land was defined as having economically insurmountable production limitations, which arose from topographic or soil properties, rather than from climate. The first step was to assess suitability in terms of topography. Elevation alone did not affect land suitability, as this feature of the whole study area was highly or moderately suitable for winter wheat. Slopes, on the other hand, affect land suitability significantly: inclines of 8-20% made 22% of the study area only marginally suitable for wheat, and slopes steeper than 20% rendered 35% unsuitable for crops in general. In terms of soil alone, 28% of the study area was found to be highly suitable for winter wheat, 1.7% moderately suitable, 54.4% marginally suitable, and 16.1% unsuitable. Topography and soil were treated as constants for the purposes of the study, with rainfall and temperature the variables. Current temperatures were found to be highly suitable for winter wheat over 66% of the study area and unsuitable for only 7%. Current rainfall was highly suitable in 50.4% of the area, moderately suitable in 31.7%, marginally suitable in 4.3%, and unsuitable in 13.7%. The climate in the study area was therefore found to be generally favorable for winter cereals, as well as for oilseed rape and food legumes. Although the summer water deficit is large, profitable crops can be irrigated where necessary. MAPPING LAND SUITABILITY The map of overall suitability for winter wheat was produced by overlaying temperature, precipitation, slope, and soil maps, finding 8.7% of the study The threat to land suitability for winter wheat in the Karkheh Basin comes from water deficit, not from higher temperatures per se. area now highly suitable, 7.6% moderately suitable, 28.0% marginally suitable, and 55.7% unsuitable. To explore future suitability, several climate change scenarios were selected. The mean temperature in 2050 was assumed to be 1.5 C above the current mean, which accorded with historical temperature change recorded over the past three decades in the study area. Study results show declining rainfall and higher drought risk to be the primary factors rendering land less suitable. The future distribution of mean annual temperatures was based on records. Analysis of historical rainfall did not show clear trends, so researchers considered three options: 20% more rain (scenario one), 20% less rain (scenario two), and unchanged average rainfall. Adding higher temperature turned unchanged rainfall into scenario three, scenario one into scenario four, and scenario two into scenario five. For more information contact: Dr Eddie De-Pauw Head of GIS Unit - ICARDA e.de-pauw@cgiar.org Higher temperature alone (scenario three) expanded the highly suitable area by 6% and the moderately suitable area by 176% a result similar to that of higher rainfall alone (scenario one). Higher temperatures and precipitation together (scenario four) expanded the highly suitable area by 53% and the moderately suitable area by 69%. Higher temperature but lower rainfall (scenario five) slashed the highly suitable area by 90%, essentially equal to the 91% contraction caused by lower rainfall alone (scenario two). In sum, the threat to land suitability for winter wheat in the Karkheh Basin comes from water deficit, not from higher temperatures per se. This confirms that worsening drought is the central future threat to agriculture. The study method, which was formulated under the auspices of the CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food, can be applied to clarify future threats to other national and regional breadbaskets.

8 06 Closing the Productivity Gap As drought becomes more frequent and severe under climate change, dryland farmers and herders can apply simple, cost-effective coping technologies for increased productivity. With climate change already worsening the frequency and intensity of drought in Central and West Asia and North Africa, and expected to do more of the same in the future, action is required to deliver appropriate water-efficient technologies to farmers and herders. Research has shown that improved technologies developed by ICARDA and its national partners can significantly improve agricultural productivity under water-constrained conditions and boost farmers income, while conserving natural resources. Existing packages of crop varieties and water-saving practices require concerted promotion from institutions and policy makers across the region. The need to act has become increasingly pertinent in the past three decades as countries experiencing drought face exacerbating food shortages and a deepening dependence on food imports. In Syria, drought in forced the slaughter of a quarter of the country s sheep for lack of fodder. Morocco experienced droughts lasting from 1980 to 1985 and from 1990 to 1995, necessitating cereal imports that in some years were double the norm. Drought in 1997 shrank sheep herds in Jordan by 30% as animals starved or had to be slaughtered prematurely. In 1999, drought cost Jordan its entire cereal crop and neighboring Syria some 40% of its cereal harvest. Drought is especially damaging to livestock production, where the effect can be seen years later. Feed shortages intensify as rangelands are degraded. In Tunisia, the contribution of rangeland to livestock diets

9 07 can be seen years later. Feed shortages intensify as rangelands are degraded. In Tunisia, the contribution of rangeland to livestock diets plunged from 65% in the recent past to 10% in In Jordan, the contribution of grazing to the diet of sheep fell from 70% to 20-30% over the same period. The effects of worsening drought are exacerbated by high growth in population, which more than doubled from 1970 to 2000, reaching 280 million in North Africa and the Middle East, where the population is expected to reach 500 million by This is putting tremendous pressure on scarce water resources. Many countries in the region already face water stress, with less than 1,000 cubic meters (m 3 ) of developed water resources per capita per year. Others suffer severe water poverty, with less than half as much water available. Lower and more erratic rainfall will affect all of the main agro-ecosystems in arid areas. Rainfed agriculture will suffer as higher temperatures speed soil evaporation early in the season and expose crops to more drought during grain formation. In irrigated areas, lower water availability will require farmers to use water tainted with salt and imperfectly treated sewage, potentially harming soil health and crop production. In rangelands, soil erosion and water runoff rates will worsen as storms become more intense and sporadic, degrading range productivity and depleting groundwater supplies even as the larger herds required to meet rising demand for livestock products intensify grazing pressure. Water harvesting improves rainwater use efficiency and soil moisture and provides better growing conditions. Despite drought and its worsening frequency and intensity, considerable scope exists for boosting agricultural production in Central and West Asia and North Africa. Hope resides in the gap between potential productivity in the region and the actual productivity currently realized by farmers. A comparison of farmer yields and those obtained on experiment stations in Syria, Morocco and Turkey shows the gap to be wide. In Morocco, for example, 80-98% of productivity in rainfed areas is unrealized, as is 40-50% of productivity in irrigated areas. Much of the yield gap can be closed by disseminating the following improved management practices to farmers. SUPPLEMENTAL IRRIGATION Many farmers in the dry areas use full irrigation during the spring and summer, supplying enough water and often more than enough to meet the entire crop requirement. A more efficient practice is to apply supplemental irrigation in winter to crops that otherwise depend on rain, with irrigation carefully timed to avoid water stress at such critical crop growth stages as flowering and grain filling. Supplemental irrigation stabilizes crop yields and can significantly improve water productivity. Research conducted by ICARDA and its partners in the dry areas demonstrates that supplemental irrigation significantly improves water productivity and conserves water resources without reducing land productivity. It has documented water productivity under supplemental irrigation as high as 2.5 kilograms of wheat grain per cubic meter of water, which is 5 times the water productivity normally achieved under rainfed conditions, and 2.5 times that under full irrigation. At a rainfed project site in Tadla, Morocco, wheat planted early receives limited supplemental irrigation early in the season and in the spring, enabling wheat plants to reach maturity before drought and the worst heat of late spring. This technique doubled grain yields and water productivity over established farmer practices. Analysis of economic water productivity can also quantify benefits accruing to wheat farmers who use improved varieties, apply nitrogen in line with the crop requirement and soil testing, plant early (in November), and use supplemental irrigation. Economic water productivity rose from 2.25 Moroccan dirhams per cubic meter before adoption to dirhams thereafter. WATER HARVESTING In dry rangeland environments up to 90% of rainwater is lost to evaporation, either directly from the soil or through runoff into salt sinks. Only 10% is used by rangeland plants. Frequent drought and consistently low soil moisture make it hard to maintain rangeland productivity and harder still to rehabilitate degraded rangelands. In response, ICARDA has developed integrated water harvesting techniques that improve rainwater use efficiency and soil moisture, providing better growing conditions for crops and range plants alike. These techniques are now being tested and promoted through pilot projects in several countries. Water can be captured inexpensively on a relatively large scale by channeling runoff into small reservoirs, from which it is drawn for irrigation

10 08 during dry periods or simply allowed to seep into the soil to recharge aquifers. On a micro scale, runoff from a small catchment is trapped and channeled to an adjoining cropped area for storage in the soil, directly supporting the crop. ICARDA s research has shown that 40-50% of the water otherwise lost through runoff and evaporation can thus be saved and consumed by plants. This carefully husbanded moisture can be critical to plant survival during drought. In addition to increasing and stabilizing yields, water harvesting alleviates erosion since reduced runoff cuts fewer deep gullies and carries away less soil. In Jordan, Syria and parts of North Africa, ICARDA is integrating simple micro-catchment techniques with other measures to rehabilitate degraded rangelands. Forage shrubs are planted around water-harvesting structures, where seepage makes the soil relatively moist. This allows shrubs to grow rapidly even under near-drought conditions, thereby expanding vegetation cover, binding soil to prevent erosion, and boosting the availability of forage for livestock. Moreover, micro-catchment management has been shown to significantly improve shrub water productivity, raising it in terms of biomass fresh weight from 1.2 kilograms per cubic meter (kg/m 3 ) to 6.1 kg/m 3, and in terms of biomass dry weight, from 0.3 kg/m 3 to 1.4 kg/m 3. Despite drought and its worsening frequency and intensity, considerable scope exists for boosting agricultural productivity in Central and West Asia and North Africa. WATER-SAVING IRRIGATION Irrigation water needs to be used more efficiently to make agriculture more sustainable while protecting the natural environment. Irrigated agriculture traditionally aims to maximize production per unit of land assuming no water constraint. As water shortages intensify, though, maximizing the return per unit of water becomes a priority, requiring that trade-offs be weighed between water productivity and land productivity. Kilograms of grain per hectare per millimeter of water Irrigated Wheat production under water scarcity sees grain water efficiency initially rise along with grain yield per hectare but then fall, illustrating the trade-off between water and land efficiency. Under conditions of water scarcity in the Mediterranean region, wheat production reaches optimal water productivity at a significantly lower yield than maximum land productivity (see figure). Where arable land is plentiful but water is scarce, the water saved by maximizing water productivity instead of yield per hectare can be used to irrigate more land to increase total production. Among the techniques that can save water are planting on raised beds and deficit irrigation. Studies at an irrigated benchmark site conducted by Egypt s Agricultural Research Center in partnership with ICARDA, found that irrigating raised beds used 30% less water than conventional basin flooding, cutting pumping costs by a corresponding amount. Labor costs for land preparation, irrigation and weeding were also 35% lower. The yield from raised beds was equal to or higher than the yield achieved without them, and net income was 15% higher. As less water was used, crop water productivity increased by more than 30% and the net return per unit of water was 20% higher than conventional irrigation. Rainfed Maximum water productivity Tons of grain per hectare For more information contact: Dr Mohammed Karrou Water and Drought Management Specialist - ICARDA m.karrou@cgiar.org Maximum yield Deficit irrigation, which is designed to meet only part of the crop s water requirement, also saved significant amounts of water: 1,600 m 3 per hectare in maize and 1,500 m 3 per hectare in wheat. FURTHER ACTION REQUIRED Less-proven technologies require further research. Deficit irrigation, for example, may save water reliably but it can also significantly reduce yields. Researchers need to determine under what circumstances yields suffer and how to mitigate risk. Farmers who use irrigation of any description need to know how to avoid salinity build-up over the long term. Since 2007, ICARDA has organized its research under a strategic plan that emphasizes climate change adaptation - a large portion of which is coping with drought. Applying science, proven technologies, and socio-economic perspectives, ICARDA and its partners are working to enhance the ability of dryland farmers and herders to cope with drought and prosper despite the difficult times ahead.

11 09 Raising Legume Productivity for Dryland Farmers Under future drought conditions food legumes will contribute even more to sustainable dryland agriculture, improved rural livelihoods, and balanced nutrition. The cool season food legumes - faba bean, chickpea and lentil - have long been important crops in the drylands of South and West Asia and North and East Africa, where they provide affordable dietary protein, cash incomes for farmers of marginal lands, and feed for livestock. Increasingly these crops are also valued for their ability to fix atmospheric nitrogen in the soil and thereby cost-effectively sustain soil health in rotation with cereal crops, which has sped their adoption in Australia and North America. Population growth in the developing countries of Asia and Africa where food legumes are traditionally grown and consumed, and spreading recognition around the globe of their importance to a healthy diet, are driving up demand for these versatile crops. As drought becomes more frequent, widespread and severe, food legumes become even more important in rotation with cereals and as cash crops under recurrent drought. Food legumes are sometimes called orphan crops because agricultural research and government policy in some countries have not prioritized improving their productivity. Yields consequently languish, constrained by the low yield potential of local landraces, their cultivation in marginal drought and heat-prone environments, and the limited delivery to farmers of improved management practices to cope effectively with abiotic stresses and other constraints such as disease, insect pests or parasitic weeds. As the holder of the global mandate for internationally funded research on faba bean, kabuli chickpea and lentil, ICARDA recognizes that it must make up for lost time by prioritizing the improvement of food legume cultivars and their management. Complicating the task are the changing circumstances of legume cultivation that arise under climate change including drought.

12 10 DIRECT EFFECTS OF WEATHER In the Mediterranean environments of West Asia and North Africa, where food legumes grow mostly on rainfed fields, intermittent drought throughout the cropping season is common, and terminal drought and heat stress routine. Faba bean is the most sensitive of these crops to drought, generally requiring more than 450 millimeters (mm) of precipitation during the growing season. Chickpea grows well in areas with mm, and lentil manages with only mm of rainfall. How much yield is lost under water stress depends on the crop s growth stage at which drought strikes, how severe the drought event is, how much moisture the soil can hold, and how quickly dry air sucks it up. Excessive heat commonly accompanies drought, and the combined effects of the two stresses are not easy to dissect. That said, heat stress for even a few days during flowering and pod filling is known to drastically reduce seed yield in grain legumes by damaging the plants reproductive organs, accelerating plant development and shortening the reproductive growth period. These effects compromise pollen viability and fertility, floral bud development, and seed filling and composition. Poor seed size and shape reduce the harvest by weight and in terms of its marketability and commercial value. WEATHER EFFECTS ON CROP DISEASE Powdery mildew can become a serious problem when farmers extend the growing season for food legumes in heat-stressed areas using supplemental irrigation. Yet the frequency of late drought in many areas makes supplemental irrigation essential to achieve high yield, not least because it reduces the incidence of Fusarium wilt. ICARDA is currently pursuing the goal of developing lines of chickpea, faba bean and lentil that tolerate heat as high as 35 C during flowering and grain filling. BREEDING FOR DROUGHT ICARDA uses such genetic diversity to breed new varieties of food legumes better able to tolerate drought and associated stresses. The ICARDA genebank holds 38,000 accessions of chickpea, faba bean, lentil and grass pea from around the world. Until recently, empirical selection for drought and heat tolerance was the common breeding approach for better yield under heat and water stress, but nailing down this complex trait floundered on confusion created by high interaction between genotype and environment and poor heritability. Now breeders look for the component traits that impart drought tolerance and, once these traits are combined in specific breeding lines, precisely locate on their chromosomes the genes that control them. To make matters worse, drought favors the proliferation and virulence of some pathogens that attack food legumes even as it renders the plants less resistant. A serious drought in Syria in 2007/08, for example, neutralized the Fusarium wilt resistance of the lentil cultivars Idleb 3 and Idleb 4 enough to cause high plant mortality. Dry root rot, nematodes and parasitic weeds do more damage to cool-season food legumes during drought than at other times. Farmers adoption of zero tillage, partly to cope with drought, has allowed heretofore minor diseases to become more prominent. Farmers in South Asia who have introduced lentil on otherwise fallow rice fields face a growing problem from Stemphylium blight and collar root rot, as the causative agents survive and multiply on the rice straw left on unplowed fields. Drought-resistant chickpeas can yield significant harvests despite dwindling water supplies. ICARDA researchers reported in 2004 that lentil grain and biomass yields improved with supplemental irrigation, achieving maximum water productivity for grain and biomass alike when irrigation met two-thirds of the moisture deficit. An ICARDA study in 2009 confirmed the benefits of supplemental irrigation in fields receiving 228 mm of rain, with grain yield rising from 609 to 834 kilograms per hectare and the harvest index rising from 24.5% to 36.7%. Four of the 15 tested lentil lines stood out as responding especially well to supplemental irrigation. Using the Center's newly developed Focused Identification of Germplasm Strategy, which narrows the search for a given trait on germplasm accessions that come from places where that trait is likely to have evolved in response to selection pressure, breeders are identifying best-bet germplasm to examine for traits associated with drought and heat tolerance. Breeders pursue two major strategies to cope with drought and heat stress. One is breeding for fast development, which enables plants to escape the drought and heat that typically occur

13 11 late in the growing season. The other is breeding lines that perform well despite water deficit and heat stress. Traits in lentil associated with the strategy of escaping drought are high harvest index, many pods and secondary branches per plant and per unit of ground area, high seed mass and number per pod, and early maturity. Because tall plants with high straw yield tend to have high grain yield, breeders need not consider the yield of straw and grain to be a trade-off when selecting plants for early maturity and the ability to escape terminal drought and heat. Traits in lentil associated with high performance in the midst of drought and excessive heat are early plant vigor, fast ground cover, large seeds, roots that are long and penetrate deep, and small leaflets. By targeting these traits, ICARDA is currently pursuing the goal of developing lines of chickpea, faba bean and lentil that tolerate heat as high as 35 C during flowering and grain filling. To screen sufficient numbers of breeding lines in their target environments, researchers delay planting so that the predictable onset of excessive heat and/or water deficit Having established that heat and drought tolerance are available in the genomes of cultivated varieties, breeders are now isolating the genes responsible. This work has been slowed, however, by food legumes status as orphan crops, which means that genome mapping and the tagging of useful genes is still rudimentary. Recent advances in molecular breeding and its application to food legumes have, however, begun homing in on the precise genes associated with the component traits that add up to drought tolerance. Once they are pinned down and validated in phenotyping trials that grow the plants for observation across various target environments, they will be ready for breeding into agronomically superior legume varieties that are already popular with farmers in those environments. THE WAY FORWARD ICARDA and its national research partners have recently allocated sizable human and monetary resources for breeding improved varieties of food legumes that tolerate drought and excessive heat and resist the diseases associated with these abiotic stresses. Also required is the need to develop integrated pest management options, with a particular focus on the soil-borne fungal pathogens and parasitic weeds that become more economically damaging as moisture stress worsens under climate change and greater weather variability. Improved drought-tolerant varieties of lentil maintain productivity and livelihoods in water scarce environments. The short-duration lentil varieties Idlib 3, Bakaria, BARI M4, BARI M5 and BARI M6 have been bred to escape drought successfully without compromising yield. The widely known drought-tolerant chickpea variety Gökçe similarly escapes moisture stress through early flowering and maturity. A variation on the drought-escape strategy is to plant legumes well before the end of winter to give them time to develop and mature before the onset of the most severe heat and drought. Farmers can increase the yield of their lentil crop by 20-60% by avoiding heat stress and using available moisture more efficiently by planting early in the winter season. at that location occurs at the critical development stage of interest, usually at and after flowering. Trials to thus evaluate lentil lines in fields and greenhouses have identified the lines ILL 3597 and Sel 33108, 33109, and as heat tolerant, and ILL1878, 6002, 759 and 6465 as drought tolerant. For more information contact: Dr Shiv Kumar Agrawal Lentil Breeder - ICARDA s.agrawal@cgiar.org Another vital area of study is to examine the unintended consequences of new cropping systems and practices such as zero or minimum tillage and supplemental irrigation that farmers are adopting in response to tightening water constraints. These forms of conservation agriculture must be tested and refined with an eye to the greater disease threat they may pose to the food legumes farmers need to grow to maintain soil health, earn cash, feed their livestock, and contribute to national and regional food security.

14 12 Secured, Scrutinized and Applied Dryland crops and their wild relatives are prime sources of genes for drought tolerance, making the conservation and use of this biodiversity an urgent priority. As the world s earliest cradle of agriculture, West Asia is the origin of many of the world s strategic crops and livestock species, including wheat, barley, lentils, goats and sheep. However, as a result of overgrazing, the adoption of modern cultivars, and the loss of natural habitats due to development, their genetic biodiversity and those of their wild relatives are being lost at alarming rates. To make matters worse, climate change now threatens to displace habitats too swiftly for organisms to track, driving many to extinction. At the same time, climate change is forecast to make drought more frequent and severe, notably in West Asia and North Africa, placing an additional premium on plant traits that support drought tolerance. ICARDA shoulders responsibility for organizing the urgent conservation of these genetic resources, thereby safeguarding a complex agricultural heritage of inestimable value to humankind both within ICARDA s mandate area and beyond. The center s genetic resources unit conserves more than 135,000 accessions received form partners or collected on some 115 missions. However, conserving genetic diversity is not merely a static exercise of locking away seeds in frozen vaults but a dynamic process of discovery and renewal pursued in partnership with stakeholders, ranging from smallholders farming a single hectare to advanced agricultural research institutes whose operations span the globe. Because the financial and human resources available for conservation are limited, they must be targeted for maximum benefit. Since 2000, ICARDA s agro-biodiversity team has surveyed the drylands and mountains of Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine and Syria to evaluate and pinpoint threats to biodiversity from natural processes, human activity and climate change, as well as to recommend biodiversity hotspots for conservation and management. Gap analysis of current germplasm holdings reveals deficiencies in geographic and ecosystem coverage and in specific attributes, guiding where future collecting missions should be sent. As drought tolerance is a high priority, ICARDA used gap analysis to direct a mission to oases in Morocco known for their brutal heat and wind to collect tolerant samples of wheat and barley varieties. Similarly, Aegilops tauschii, a grass widely used to

15 13 The expected impacts of conservation and the sustainable use of Agro-biodiversity. produce synthetic hexaploid wheat that usually appears in relatively humid areas, reportedly has small populations in Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan and Syria that are adapted to dry conditions, which should make them useful in breeding drought-tolerant wheat. This intelligence calls for urgent missions to collect samples of this species before the remaining populations are lost. Off-site conservation in genebanks is best complemented with on-site conservation in natural habitats and on farms, where landraces and wild species continue to evolve in response to changing environments. Policy makers must establish protected areas in major centers of diversity to ensure the survival of remaining populations of wild relatives of globally important crops. To actively preserve landraces on the farm, ICARDA has worked with national and local stakeholders to promote holistic, diverse cropping systems; seed cleaning and treatment to improve the quality and yield of landraces; and market development to make traditional farm products more profitable through better processing and packaging and the encouragement of ecotourism and other alternative sources of income. The center has led stakeholders rehabilitation of degraded rangeland with native plant species and eased pressure on rangelands by, for example, introducing alternative livestock feed such as pressed blocks of crop residues and other farm wastes. As ICARDA s research partners in national programs develop their modern breeding skills not least through training provided by the center its own breeding work moves upstream. ICARDA now emphasizes pre-breeding parental germplasm for distribution to national research partners, who use it to confer the target traits to popular cultivars adapted to local conditions and markets. Today, pre-breeding usually enlists a target trait such as drought resistance from a wild relative of the crop by applying biotechnology to wide-cross the two species. Biotechnology is an expanding set of cutting-edge technologies best known for its controversial ability to transfer into a crop genome a transgene found in a wholly different species. Breeders use biotechnology more often, though, to generate wide crosses of crops and their wild cousins and to determine quickly in each breeding iteration which progenies carry the targeted trait, without taking the time to grow the plant out. To direct the successful use of conserved genetic resources, ICARDA has collaborated in developing and testing the Focused Identification of Germplasm Strategy (FIGS), which is premised on the coevolution of stress resistance with sources of stress. The strategy aggregates readily available information on germplasm accessions with agro-ecological data on soils, climate, pests and diseases to focus the search for a given trait on germplasm accessions that come from places where that trait is likely to have evolved. The approach has successfully identified novel sources of resistance in wheat to powdery mildew, sunn pest, Russian wheat aphid, and Hessian fly, as well as new sources of tolerance to salinity and drought. For more information contact: Dr Ahmed Amri Head of the Genetic Resources Unit and Deputy Director of the Crop Improvement Program - ICARDA a.amri@cgiar.org

16 14 Synergy in Dryland Crop Management Trials reveal that combining zero tillage and supplemental irrigation generates higher wheat yields than either technique applied on its own, raising hopes for the crop s cultivation in an increasingly dry future. Drought is normally understood to be caused by abnormally deficient rainfall. It is therefore unlikely to affect irrigated crops unless it drags on long enough to dry up sources of irrigation water. Drought of a different sort can arise when the cost of irrigation water becomes prohibitive because of competition for limited supplies from urban and industrial development. Economically induced drought is increasingly a problem for farmers in many irrigated agro-ecologies, especially in drylands close to thirsty towns and cities. This trend is likely to continue. Meanwhile, climate-induced drought is forecast to become more frequent and severe under climate change, damaging the productivity and profitability of rainfed crops. The future will favor farmers able to grow more crop per drop under either rainfed or irrigated conditions. Supplemental irrigation and zero tillage are two low-cost management techniques with proven ability to grow crops efficiently with limited inputs. A winter wheat trial on ICARDA s research station in 2008 and 2009 studied how well the two techniques work together to improve and stabilize yields under water limitation. The trial used five improved varieties of bread wheat. Zero tillage is the increasingly popular practice of directly planting seeds in unplowed fields. It is possible in many environments only with modern herbicides to control weeds, which is one of the main purposes of plowing. The advantages of zero tillage stem mainly from farmers being able to plant earlier without time-consuming and expensive land preparation. Early planting allows crops to emerge quickly and strongly thanks to the early rains in the growing season. Vigorous growth generates a lot of vegetative biomass needed to set and fill seeds. A good crop canopy also shades the soil surface and so reduces soil evaporation during tillering. Early crops have a good chance of escaping late-season drought by reaching maturity and harvest time before the drought happens. Longer-term benefits derive from the superior structure and erosion resistance of undisturbed soil. Supplemental irrigation improves on conventional irrigation by applying water only at critical stages of crop growth and development, thereby conserving water without sacrificing yield. In the ICARDA trial, wheat under supplemental irrigation received 35 millimeters (mm) of water at the boot

17 15 Zero tillage seeders enable farmers to plant earlier without time consuming and expensive land preparation. stage and the same amount later at the milk stage in addition to the same amount of rainfall received by nearby rainfed control plots. The trial site often suffers water deficit late in the spring, which worsens seed abortion and stunts the growth of surviving seed. Supplemental irrigation after flowering improves crop performance on both counts, supporting higher yields. A separate trial reported more than a dozen years ago that supplemental irrigation applied after heading raised the water productivity of wheat to as high as 2.5 kilograms of grain per cubic meter of water, which was 2.5 times higher than under full irrigation, and 5 times higher than under rainfed conditions. When selecting wheat lines for water-limited environments, plant breeders value early flowering for the sake of escaping late drought and heat stress two constraints that will intensify with climate change in many wheat-growing areas. Early flowering comes at a cost, though, as plants may not yet have produced enough biomass to support seed setting and filling. Zero tillage helps build biomass early, as noted above. On the other hand, excessive biomass may deplete soil moisture, leaving too little moisture to support grain filling. The best results are therefore achieved using wheat varieties that balance the development of biomass and of seed to best advantage, whatever the management regime. The results of the ICARDA trial showed all five tested cultivars improving under zero tillage. Improvements were observed in the following areas: leaf area index, specific leaf area (the ratio of leaf area to leaf dry matter), evapotranspiration, production of biomass above ground, and biomass water productivity at the beginning of stem elongation. At maturity, rainfed zero tillage increased water use by 30 mm over the experimental control of rainfed conventional tillage, and conventional tillage with supplemental irrigation increased water use by 61 mm over the control regime. For more information contact: Dr Mohammed Karrou Water and Drought Management Specialist - ICARDA m.karrou@cgiar.org Combining zero tillage and supplemental irrigation, however, increased water use by 110 mm, or 21% more than the gain achieved by each management technique separately. This apparent synergistic effect produced an average grain yield of 5,929 kilograms of grain per hectare (kg/ha), or 31% more than the average yield of 4,515 kg/ha under rainfed conventional tillage. Supplemental irrigation and zero tillage are two low-cost management techniques with proven ability to grow crops efficiently with limited inputs. There was no significant difference in yield between rainfed zero tillage, at 5,063 kg/ha, and conventional tillage with supplemental irrigation, at 5,244 kg/ha. Two cultivars, Cham 6 and Cham 8, responded notably well to zero tillage and supplemental irrigation combined, but all of the cultivars responded positively to the techniques in different ways. This diversity of response encourages further research to select varieties well adapted to this combination of management techniques.

18 16 Proof of the Product Low cost alternative feed sources for Awassi ewes are not only sustainable in the face of increasing drought and desertification, but also produce higher quality yogurt and cheese. The good news for dairy sheep farmers in the Middle East is that the market for yogurt and cheese made from the milk they produce is growing by leaps and bounds. This reflects rapid population growth in the region and higher incomes that allow more consumers to indulge in richer diets. The bad news is that overgrazing over many decades if not for centuries is now compounded by desertification and worsening drought. These stresses have degraded ancient rangelands to such an extent that they no longer come close to meeting the grazing needs of ever-larger flocks of sheep. Farmers are now forced to purchase fodder, the high cost of which cuts deeply into their profits, which they can ill-afford as most are poor. ICARDA has successfully addressed the problem of fodder shortage by developing alternative feed combinations to fatten lambs. These mixed fodders use relatively cheap materials, mostly agricultural byproducts that are readily available. Until recently, though, no one had assessed how the new, affordable fodder combinations for sheep affected the quality of their dairy products. Ewes lactate what they eat, so the composition of feed affects not only milk yield but also its composition and the quantity and quality of the yogurt and cheese made from it. Quality determines the price the products fetch on the market and therefore the real savings that accrue from using these fodder mixes. Toward filling this information gap, ICARDA s first step was to assess through a rapid survey the content of feed provided to flocks during their milk-producing period. The norm thus identified became the control diet for comparison with five alternative test diets, each fed to eight Awassi lactating ewes at ICARDA s sheep unit at Tel Hadya, near Aleppo, Syria. The test diets combined conventional feeds such as barley grain and wheat bran with unconventional substances: cotton seed cake and such low-cost feeds as ammoniated wheat straw, molasses and sugar beet pulp. The sheep were allowed to graze on marginal rangeland for six hours daily, except those being fed one of the five test diets, which grazed on vetch instead.

19 17 Bulk milk was collected once every other week from the animals in each test group. Ewes on four of the test diets produced 25-38% more milk than those on the control diet. Analysis of milk products showed the alternative diets generally better at producing cheese with desirable hardness and yogurt with desirable firmness, as four test diets improved the hardness of cheese by at least 9% over the control and improved yogurt firmness by at least 4%. As these are important characteristics for pricing yogurt and cheese in the Middle East, the four diets show good potential to increase producers profits. Farmers are now forced to purchase fodder, the high cost of which cuts deeply into their profits, which they can ill-afford as most are poor. ICARDA has successfully addressed the problem of fodder shortage by developing alternative feed combinations to fatten lambs. ASSESSING QUALITY A consumer panel of ICARDA employees further assessed cheese for chewiness, aroma, taste and texture, and yogurt for appearance, aroma, taste and texture both scored on a five-point scale. This sensory analysis of the cheese revealed texture improved by four of the tested diets and chewiness improved by three of them. The measured sensory traits of yogurt were improved by four of the tested diets. Each material used to formulate the test diets affected digestibility and nutritional balance in its own way. All the tested materials have been used as sheep feed in the Middle East to varying degrees and for different purposes. Although available at little cost, molasses has not, however, been tried widely in the region to feed dairy ewes. Similarly, cotton seed cake is commonly used to fatten animals but not fed to dairy ewes. Wheat straw is widely available at low prices, and its digestibility and protein content can be improved by treating it with urea. Sugar beet pulp a byproduct left by processing this widely cultivated crop and therefore readily available in the region can increase the yield and fat content of milk because it is rich in digestible fiber. The other ingredients used in at least two of the test diets were barley and barley straw. The worst-performing test diet the only one that produced less milk than the control was the one that used vetch, rather than range, as the basal feed. Its other distinguishing feature was its high molasses content, at 35%. The researchers speculate that the surfeit of soluble sugars impeded milk production by interfering with fiber and protein digestibility and by channeling glucose into body fat. That four of the five test diets boosted milk volume and quality while keeping feed costs down through the use of agricultural byproducts and ammoniated wheat straw holds promise for poor dairy sheep farmers in the Middle East. With a good fodder mix, they can expand their flocks in response to higher demand, improve their productivity and product quality, and earn better incomes despite worsening drought and other constraints on pasturage. Wheat straw is widely available at low prices, and its digestibility and protein content can be improved by treating it with urea. For more information contact: Dr Muhi El-Dine Hilali Post-Doc Fellow - Dairy Technologist ICARDA m.hilali@cgiar.org

20 18 Adding Value to Staying Put Despite scarce water supplies, new research on value addition and market chains could raise agricultural profitability in Central Asia and the Caucasus and reverse the region s debilitating out-migration. Central Asia and the Caucasus face mounting challenges in the coming decades from worsening drought and other environmental and social changes. Water scarcity in the region is intensifying as glaciers recede and evaporation accelerates. Many small glaciers will likely disappear by 2050, allowing snow to melt too early for useful irrigation at high altitude. Research is needed so mountain villages can adapt to lost supplies of water for irrigation and drinking - for example working out where and how to build reservoirs that hold snow melt until irrigation is required. As 70% of summer flow is glacier melt that is now endangered, farmers need assistance to shift from irrigated to rainfed agriculture, conservation agriculture and value addition. DEGRADED RESOURCES Faster evaporation under rising temperatures threatens alpine lakes no matter how large. Issyk Kul in Kyrgyzstan, at 6,232 square kilometers the world s second-biggest mountain lake, is likely to shrink by 230-1,050 square kilometers by the end of the century. As 70% of summer flow is glacier melt that is now endangered, farmers need assistance to shift from irrigated to rainfed agriculture, conservation agricultural, and value addition. Kygyzstan s smaller Chatyr Kul will likely dry up completely every summer. Mountain pastoralists, more than their lowland counterparts, depend on rivers or lakes close to rangelands for watering their animals because it is impractical to carry water to remote summer rangelands at high altitudes or to dig wells there. In Ladakh, northern India, pastoralists can no longer use rangelands surrounding the high-altitude lake Tso Kar because evaporation has left it too salty. Rainfed grasses on alpine rangelands in Ladakh and elsewhere will likely persist but are becoming useless to herds for lack of watering points. Future livestock production depends on research to identify suitable sites for developing small reservoirs in rangelands and ramping up efforts to breed small ruminants able to graze at length without drinking. Outward migration is a problem that worsens in tandem with water scarcity, especially in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, where mountain farmers and herders are migrating in droves to the lowlands and neighboring countries. Nearly a million Tajik migrants, 90% of them male, are reported to be working in Russia, their remittances amounting to perhaps a third of Tajikistan s gross domestic product.

21 19 In drought-prone and saline lowlands as well, research can integrate agriculture with pastoralism. A trial on saline land in Uzbekistan found sorghum able to produce 98 tons of green biomass per hectare within 3-4 months. Pearl millet, barley, safflower, amaranth, triticale and licorice also have potential where irrigation is possible to provide food, fodder and raw materials for value chains that generate income. In many places, though, the better option over the long term is rainfed rangeland shrubs. Projected degradation of glaciers by 2050 (Source: Tajik Met Service 2003). Migrant workers families typically invest remittances in goats, the number of which swelled from 870,800 in 1992 to 1,202,300 in This worsens overgrazing and soil erosion around settlements for lack of goatherds to take the animals to higher summer pastures. To prevent overgrazing and ensure proper watering, high-value goats and sheep should receive forage in small fenced yards, rather than graze on rangelands, but this too is constrained by scarce labor supplies. The women and children left behind suffer diminished social status, and many actually receive little or no remittance money, exposing them to exploitation. Terraces and other resource-conserving structures traditionally maintained by men crumble despite the fact that worsening water scarcity makes them more vital. This structural decay is emblematic of the social ills emerging as long-term out-migration often strains family ties, deepens the poverty of abandoned wives and undermines alpine communities capacity to arrest land degradation. Research needs to address outmigration by making agriculture in the mountains of Central Asia and the Caucuses more profitable even on marginal land and by developing job-creating value chains to keep men at home. Meanwhile, the rising number of women heading farm families changes the target group for agricultural research and extension. The upside is that this change may accelerate value addition to fruits, nuts, vegetables, herbs, medicinal plants and honey as women can commercialize their traditional skills. Such production is especially promising for mountainous areas with little good farmland, as the crops can be grown around homesteads or sustainably harvested from the wild. To succeed, though, farmers need appropriate equipment and training. EXPORT OPPORTUNITIES Research on value addition and market chains demonstrates the way forward. In western Georgia, for example, 37 crops have been identified as promising alternatives targeting European markets, with berries, kiwifruit, feijoa, persimmon, cabbage and Jerusalem artichoke described as best bets. Most of these crops are likely to be suitable for southeastern Azerbaijan as well. In the Uzbek region of Khorezm and nearby areas of northern Turkmenistan and southern Kazakhstan, gooseberry, sour cherry, pistachio, jujube, date, fig, almond, barley, Jerusalem artichoke, safflower and tobacco have good prospects for export to Europe. Success with all these crops depends on good environmental stewardship to protect pollinating insects. For more information contact: Dr Stefanie Christmann Environmental Governance Researcher - ICARDA s.christmann@cgiar.org Some valuable medicinal species grow even in sandy deserts. Ferula assafoetia, for example, is taken as an antibiotic, digestive aid, contraceptive and antiepileptic, aside from its uses as a culinary spice and animal fodder. The fennel-like plant can tolerate high salinity and temperatures ranging from below freezing to 50 C. The commercial cultivation of this and other hardy commercial crops can contribute significantly to livelihoods but only after research determines how best to grow them and policymakers support programs to multiply their seed for distribution to farmers. Glaciers in Central Asia, often the only water source for local villages, are melting rapidly. Research is needed to protect the genetic resources of herbs and medicinal plants, many of which have limited ranges and small populations and are therefore vulnerable to extinction. Enabling and sustaining their cultivation will help revitalize mountain and dryland agriculture in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Although the Caucasus is expected to experience a small population decline, this task is urgent in Central Asia where the population is forecast to reach 79.9 million by 2050, up by nearly a third from 60.6 million in 2008.

22 20 Drought Confronted Where it Lurks Drought-tolerant wheat varieties will only benefit vulnerable farmers and improve food security and poverty reduction if effective systems of seed multiplication and distribution are implemented. Central to helping farmers cope with water scarcity is breeding drought-resistant crop varieties. Breeding is only one step, however, since realizing the benefits of drought tolerance or any other desirable crop trait depends on seed being multiplied and delivered to farmers in target environments. To better understand the strengths and weaknesses of seed multiplication and distribution systems, ICARDA studied the government-run system in Syria, focusing on the poorer wheat-growing areas in the country s northeast. A third of the farms in the ICARDA survey were smaller than 5 hectares, and 60% were smaller than 10 hectares. The Syrian government is active in seed development and supply, funding agricultural research to improve productivity and subsidizing farmers seed purchases. The government also subsidizes fuel and fertilizer inputs and has invested heavily in irrigation over the past quarter of a century. From 1985 to 2007, the irrigated portion of the national wheat area expanded from 24% to 45% (53% in the survey sample), irrigation in areas growing durum wheat rose from 2% to 48% (70% in the survey), and irrigation in areas growing bread wheat rose from 31% to 42% (51% in the survey). The northeast has been the main beneficiary of expanded irrigation, as its share of the national total rose from 24% in 1985 to 41% in The expansion of irrigation and the adoption of new high-yielding wheat varieties has increased production, but the direct impact on rural poverty has been disappointing. Nationwide, the poverty rate declined substantially to 13% over the decade to 2007, but the rural rate remains more than twice as high at about 30% and has actually risen in the northeast and along the Mediterranean coast as harvests have suffered from recurring drought. The Green Revolution of the 1960s and 1970s demonstrated that new agricultural technologies can reduce poverty directly by improving the incomes of poor farmers who adopt

23 21 them, and indirectly by reducing food prices, expanding demand for low-skilled labor and underpinning economic growth in the broader economy. The ICARDA survey in northeastern Syria confirmed poverty reduction stemming from the adoption of improved wheat cultivars, but less than might be hoped. While the indirect effects unfailingly reduce poverty, the direct effects depend on who adopts the technology and when. If, for example, poor farmers are late adopters, they can be hurt in the short run as larger harvests from early adopters drive down farm gate prices. Adoption patterns depend on the attributes of the technology; producer characteristics such as age, education, landholding and wealth; and the resources devoted to diffusion. As poorer farmers are often concentrated in agriculturally marginal areas, new crop varieties developed to tolerate the constraints in marginal areas, such as drought, are likely to reduce poverty effectively. In Syria, the state controls the multiplication and distribution of wheat seed through its General Organization for Seed Multiplication (GOSM). GOSM receives foundation seed from the national agricultural research system and contracts farmers to multiply it for distribution through the Agricultural Cooperative Bank, which provides seed and other inputs to farmers on credit. So far, so good. Less good are the methods by which GOSM forecasts seed demand: basing forecasts on past demand and soliciting feedback from its contracted seed growers. Listening to farmers is a good idea, but this group is not representative of farmers in general. Its members are more successful and better off than average, most of them working favorable environments, so they are unlikely to value drought tolerance as much as poorer farmers working more marginal rainfed environments prone to drought. The main basis for planning GOSM seed production is forecast demand for each variety derived by averaging demand for it over the past 5 years. This method perpetuates any mismatch between latent demand for a particular variety and demonstrated demand, which can be constrained by seed availability. This explains the slow dissemination of newer cultivars and the continued prevalence of Cham 3, which was released in 1987 and still covers two-thirds of the durum wheat area, while Cham 5, a superior durum variety released half a dozen years later, occupies only a fifth. New wheat varieties that have been developed to tolerate drought are likely to reduce poverty. Basing seed production on past demand also explains why farmers plant much of their irrigated land with cultivars developed for rainfed environments. Cham 6, a rainfed bread wheat variety released in 1991, still covers four-fifths of bread wheat area, nearly half of the land under it irrigated. Meanwhile, Cham 8, an irrigated bread wheat variety released in 2000 with a yield potential more than double that of Cham 6, occupies only 10% of the bread wheat area. This analysis shows that Syria needs to accelerate its distribution of new varieties and carefully target their intended environments. As 90% of Cham 8 area is irrigated, farmers clearly recognize the variety s superiority under irrigation, but Cham 8 seed provision has not kept pace with the spread of irrigation, forcing many farmers to make do with Cham 6 and its lower yield. Farmers therefore fail to realize the full potential of their improved land, handicapping their climb out of poverty and national economic growth. AN ALTERNATIVE APPROACH This analysis shows that Syria needs to accelerate its distribution of new varieties and carefully target their intended environments. One approach would be to create public-private partnerships for seed multiplication and distribution, with public partners tackling quality assurance and supplying foundation seed, and private partners handling multiplication and distribution in response to farmer demand. ICARDA has pioneered this approach with village-based seed enterprises in Afghanistan, Ethiopia and other drought-prone countries. In these initiatives, farmers form cooperatives to multiply and sell seed of improved varieties, with ICARDA and its national partners providing logistical, funding and technical support. The cooperatives are envisioned evolving into full-blown commercial seed enterprises. For more information contact: Dr Aden Aw-Hassan Director of the Social, Economic, and Policy Research Program - ICARDA a.aw-hassan@cgiar.org

24 22 Learning to Live with Less Lebanon s long history of plentiful water supplies is drawing to a close, requiring a strategic plan to protect and make the most of dwindling resources. In a region notable for its arid expanses, Lebanon stands out as a compact area blessed with abundant rainfall. Rain is poorly distributed, though, over this small but topographically complex country. Some 95% of Lebanon s annual precipitation falls from October to April, when westerly winds blow ashore clouds heavy with moisture risen from the Mediterranean Sea. With no large freshwater bodies, Lebanon depends on rain to fill its 40 major streams and rivers, 17 of which are perennial, and to recharge the aquifer that supplies more than 2,000 springs. An estimated 80% of Lebanon s 8,600 billion cubic meters of annual stream flow occurs during the winter, very little of it captured and stored to bridge worsening water deficits in the summer. Seasonal imbalance is exacerbated by great regional variation in rainfall imposed by the Mount Lebanon chain, whose ridges run parallel to the coast and rise to peaks as high as 3,000 meters above sea level. The mountains catch the lion s share of the rain coming off the sea, generously watering the western slopes and the coast but leaving little moisture for the eastern slopes or the Bekaa Valley beyond. There, a semi-arid continental climate features unpredictable rainfall and recurrent drought. DECLINING WATER SUPPLIES Water shortage is forecast to worsen in Lebanon as in most of the Middle East, where water supplies are expected to decline some 10-15% by Analysis of climatic events from 1970 to 2000 reveals more frequent and intense drought, unusually devastating floods, and a shorter period of snow cover on the peaks of Mount Lebanon all evidence of climate change.

25 23 A warming trend that started in the early 1990s continues to make heat waves more frequent, speeding evaporation in inland areas already suffering soil moisture deficits. Severe drought has prevailed in recent years in the central and northern parts of the Bekaa Valley, where declining surface and groundwater resources force farmers to dig their wells deeper and deeper to irrigate potatoes (see box). An analysis of changing land use in Lebanon reported in 2002 a dramatic reduction in vegetation cover in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley caused by deforestation, overgrazing and poor soil management on cultivated land, which has reduced infiltration and groundwater recharge, increased runoff, and worsened soil erosion. An estimated 80% of Lebanon s 8,600 billion cubic meters of annual stream flow occurs during the winter, very little of it captured and stored to bridge worsening water deficits in the summer. DROUGHT THROUGH THE AGES Drought and flooding are forecast to impose ever stiffer constraints on crop production under climate change. Throughout history, both have devastated agriculture and the societies that depended on it. In the mists of prehistory, though, drought was present at the creation of agriculture, and flooding prompted its spread. The emergence of long dry seasons at the end of the last ice age some 12,000 years ago favored the spread of annual plants, whose seeds and tubers wait out the dry spell to sprout when rains return. The proliferation of plants with edible seeds and tubers is thought to have sparked the beginning of agriculture typically the cultivation of annual crops about 11,000 years ago in the Fertile Crescent of the Middle East, of which Lebanon is a central land and maritime link. Some 9,000 years ago, widespread flooding and a 1.4 meter rise in sea level caused by the final collapse of the ice sheet submerged coastal farmlands, forcing agricultural communities inland, notably from Greece into the Balkans and eventually further into Europe, bringing with them the seeds of crops that they had domesticated in the Fertile Crescent. During the past 5,000 years, drought has been the main constraint on crop production in most areas. It has caused the collapse of empires and whole civilizations, such as the Akkadian in Mesopotamia some 4,200 years ago, the Moche in coastal Peru 1,500 years ago, and the Mayan of the Yucatan 1,200 years ago. Lebanon s Ministry of Energy and Water recognizes the need to use water resources more carefully through reforms to institute the integrated management of surface and groundwater resources; recycle water used for domestic, industrial and recreational purposes; rehabilitate municipal water treatment and supply systems to improve their efficiency; adopt economic and administrative measures, such as water metering and realistic pricing, to rationalize and reduce water consumption and cover the operation and maintenance costs of water delivery and wastewater treatment; and at times of severe shortage, ration water to ensure that no critical demand goes unmet. REHABILITATION EFFORTS The ministry further calls for greatly expanding the country s capacity to store water and a combination of physical and administrative measures to improve or extend irrigation on 177,000 hectares. It aims to rehabilitate Today, Mount Lebanon suffers worsening drought, higher temperatures, the loss of snow cover and its gradual melt, and changing insect ecologies. Together these changes threaten the survival of the cedars of Lebanon, the ancient symbol of the country. Some individual cedars have lived for 3,000 years, silent witnesses to centuries of deforestation that have shrunk the area under Lebanon cedar forests from half a million hectares to the current 2,000 hectares. Almost all old cedars today are administratively protected, but the International Union for Conservation of Nature has nevertheless placed Cedrus libani on its red list of threated species. and upgrade existing small water tanks, reservoirs, and conveyance infrastructure; construct more small reservoirs where environmentally appropriate and cost effective; and replace open channels with pressurized pipes to cap evaporation losses. A greater role for water users For more information contact: Dr Fadi Karam Water Resources Specialist - ICARDA f.karam@cgiar.org associations can improve irrigation scheduling, introduce irrigation on demand, and make water use on the farm more efficient with the adoption of conservation agriculture, deficit and trickle irrigation, integrated water and nutrient recycling, and new droughtand heat-tolerant crop varieties.

26 24 A Boon to Persian Pasta Multi-environmental trials of durum wheat are refining Iranian cooperative breeding programs, providing climate-adapted cultivars to farmers and strengthening national food security. Iran imports almost a third of the agricultural products it consumes. With rapid population growth certain to keep driving up demand for food, Iran needs to strengthen its food security. It can do so by expanding the area planted with improved wheat cultivars adapted to its arid and drought-prone environment. Average annual precipitation across Iran falls short of 250 millimeters (mm), most of it occurring from October to April. Local climates are remarkably diverse. Rainfall varies from less than 100 mm on the central plateau to 100 mm on the central plateau, to more than 1,000 mm in the mountainous northwest. Temperature is the feature that strongly distinguishes Iran s five climate regions: very cold, cold, moderately cold, moderately warm and very hot. Temperatures range from less than 30 C in the northwest and center to more than 50 C in the south. Durum wheat is important to the food security of dry areas such as Iran. It is grown on 10% of the world s wheat area, mainly where rainfall is uncertain and low at mm per year. Used to make pasta, durum wheat is an increasingly commercial crop whose annual traded volume tripled from less than 2 million tons in the 1960s to 6.2 million tons in the 1990s. The latter figure is equal to 20% of world durum production, somewhat higher than the 17% of bread wheat that is traded internationally. IMPROVED VARIETIES ICARDA has cooperated for some 15 years with the durum wheat breeding program of Iran s Dryland Agricultural Research Institute (DARI), which aims to develop varieties for all but the most extreme environments in the country. Multi-environment trials evaluate the performance of improved durum wheat lines to select the best genotypes for specific environments and those with stable performance across a range of environments. DARI-ICARDA collaboration has brought about the release of durum varieties with high, stable yields achieved with few agricultural inputs. This is a departure from the more common practice of selecting crop