CAPRI-DynaSpat. Work Package 10 bio-physical model link. Declan Mulligan. Ispra April Return flight from Bonn

Transcription

1 Monte Rosa Matterhorn Mont Blanc CAPRI-DynaSpat Work Package 10 bio-physical model link Declan Mulligan Ispra April 2006 Return flight from Bonn

2 Objectives of WP CAPRI CAPRI Model Model Develop a series of harmonized and geo-referenced databases from a range of data sources to describe agricultural land use practices, meteorology and soil conditions in individual regions Adapt an existing process-based model that estimates nitrogen fluxes (GHG emissions and leaching to ground waters) from different crops under differing soil and climate conditions for the EU Implement the model within a Geographic Information System and link with CAPRI/GIS Spatial Spatial data data HSMU HSMU (WP8) (WP8) JRC/CAPRI/other JRC/CAPRI/other GHG GHG Process Process Based Based Model Model (WP10) (WP10) Annual Annual aggregated aggregated GHG GHG fluxes fluxes N2O, N2O, CH4, CO2 CH4, CO2 This work package will be closely linked with WP8 that provides regions of unique combination of soil type, land use and land management and climate 5.Scenario 5.Scenario analysis analysis Climate, Climate, Management Management

3 Progress of WP10 The first year Data requirements identified for running the DNDC model at the European scale and availability of such data The second year Data obtained and processed DNDC tables built in access database CAPRI yields v DNDC yields Year three.running

4 DNDC Model Denitrification and Decomposition model (Li et al., 1992) looks at the nitrogen biogeochemistry in agro-ecosystems able to incorporate a variety of agricultural management activities such as manure application, planting, harvesting, weeding, tillage and irrigation Latest version: DNDC88 (29/3/06) Source code: Visual c++ soil carbon and nitrogen profiles for cm daily air temperature, precipitation, snow pack, evaporation, and transpiration. crop LAI/biomass development and cropping practices daily soil temperature, moisture, ice content, available N, and Eh. daily rates of decomposition, nitrification,denitrifi cation, methanogenesis, and methanotrophy daily fluxes of CO 2, NH 3, CH 4, N 2 O, NO, and N 2

5 The Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC) model The model consists of two components The first component: Soil climate crop growth decomposition The second component: nitrification Denitrification fermentation Predicts: NO, N 2 O, N 2,CH 4 and NH 3 fluxes based on the modelled soil environmental factors

6 DNDC Database structure DNDC Model Database Spatial data GIS database contains the spatial data Region GIS Geographic_1.txt Climate_2.txt Soils_3.txt Crop area_4.txt Libraries Daily meteorological data for each MARS cell Farm data for each crop Crop Physiological characteristics Climate Library Farm Library Meteorological data farm0001.txt farm0002.txt farm0001.txt Farm management data Results Crop 0 fallow Crop Library Crop 2 Crop Winter 2 Corn wheat Crop physiological parameters Results

7 DNDC GIS Database GIS data: 1. Geographical data: Longitude, latitude derived from the HSMU centroid Note: 1.4 million HSMU Duplicates will be removed for same crop, soil, meteo type Still to be calculated Grid Characteristics HSMU ID Name * Region * Longitude Latitude 1001 IT201 Varese J.R.C. Ispra 45 48' 43.4" North ' 37.4" East altitude: 220 mt.

8 DNDC GIS Database 2. Climate data: HSMU to MARS 50 km cell ID provides link to daily meteorological data extracted from the Monitoring Agriculture and Regional Information Systems (MARS) database for Atmospheric N deposition concentration EMEP 50 km grid needs GIS correction Climate file HSMU ID Climate file (MARS ID) N concentration Climate library file Climate file (MARS ID) Julian day Max temp Min temp Rainfall (cm)

9 DNDC GIS Database 3. Soil data European Soil Bureau Network, JRC 1k soil rasters spatially corrected and data summarized in arcgis by WP8 to provide: Minimum and maximum values of: Soil Organic carbon (SOC) clay content, ph & bulk density Bulk density derived from packing density ph derived from base saturation Soil Properties HSMU ID SOC (min, max) Clay (min, max) ph (min, max) BD (min, max)

10 DNDC GIS Database Crop Area WP8 Set at 1000 (ha) Results given in kg N 2 O-N ha -1 if Crop in HSMU = yes then 1000 then DNDC model reads: farm file for that crop containing management data Crop library file containing crop physiological data HSMU_NR 1841 ALL_AGRI_P 7000 BARL_YES 0 DWHE_YES 0 GRAS_YES 1000 LFALL_YES 0 LMAIZ_YES 0 LOLIV_YES 0 LRAPE_YES 0 LTWIN_YES 0 OATS_YES 0 OCER_YES 0 OCRO_YES 0 OFAR_YES 0 PARI_YES 0 POTA_YES 0 PULS_YES 0 ROOF_YES 0 RYEM_YES 0 SOYA_YES 0 SUGB_YES 0 SUNF_YES 0 SWHE_YES 0 TOBA_YES 0

11 DNDC Climate Library DNDC Model Meteorological data: Extracted from the Monitoring Agriculture and Regional Information Systems (MARS) Database Region GIS Spatial data Geographic_1.txt Climate_2.txt Soils_3.txt Crop area_4.txt Minimum and maximum temperature Precipitation (cm) Daily data for each cell running in DNDC version 88 Climate Library Farm Library Meteorological data farm0001.txt farm0002.txt farm0001.txt Farm management data Crop 0 fallow Crop Library Crop 2 Crop Winter 2 Corn wheat Crop physiological parameters Results

12 DNDC Farm Library Farm management data required for each CAPRI region for each crop At NUTS 2 level DNDC Model Spatial data Database Geographic_1.txt Region Climate_2.txt GIS Soils_3.txt Crop area_4.txt Fertiliser (Kg N ha) application per crop Manure (Kg N ha) application per crop Climate Library Meteorological data (Values for both need to be checked) Farm Library Additional data derived from farm0001.txt farm0001.txt farm0002.txt Farm management data FATE database at NUTS 3 level Crop Library Crop physiological parameters Planting & Harvest timing Tillage application & timing Fertiliser timing Plus Irrigation - FAO crop residue IPCC Crop20 Corn fallow Crop 2Crop Winter wheat Results

13 DNDC crop Library DNDC Model Crop Physiological data for each crop Total biomass C value in crop library Controls the Yield output of the model Database Region GIS Spatial data Geographic_1.txt Climate_2.txt Soils_3.txt Crop area_4.txt Winter_wheat crop_name_ total_biomass_c portion_of_grain portion_of_shoot 0.20 portion_of_root plant_cn grain_cn_ratio root_cn_ratio shoot_cn_ratio water_requirement max_lai 0.50 max_height TDD N_fixation 0.40 initial efficiency of use of absorbed light (kg CO2/ha/h)/(J/m2/s) maximum rate of leaf photosytensis, kg CO2/ha/h rate constant of crop development in vegetative stage (1/d) rate constant of crop development in reproductive phase 1/d economic copmponent/storage organc by weight specific leaf weight constant, kg dm/ha specific stem weight, kg dm/ha 0.50 ratio of internal/external CO2 concentrations 1.00 maximum root depth for crop, m 0.06 increase rate of root depth, m/day Climate Library Meteorological data farm0001.txt Farm Library farm0002.txt farm0001.txt Farm management data Crop 0 fallow Crop Library Crop 2 Crop Winter 2 Corn wheat Crop physiological parameters Results

14 DNDC yields/total biomass Yield test results for Lucas points Biomass scenario: Winter wheat points Default biomass total 5000 kg ha Country results Highest yield - Spain, Italy Lowest yield Finland, Sweden Frequency predicted total biomass

15 DNDC yields/total biomass Yield test run on Lucas points A second set of model runs were made for LUCAS wheat points changing the biomass C input from 500 kg to 9500 kg C ha in increments of 500 kg Output yield kg C ha Biomass input kg C ha -1

16 Work to be done Further yield test using more crop types. Performance of regression analysis to identify the most influential factors determining crop yield. Calculation of winter excess rainfall to determine recommended fertiliser application rates. Changing DNDC database structure to match HSMU input data. Link to CAPRI model. Production scenarios of management or climate change

17 Thank You