3. Atmospheric Supply of Nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in 2015

Transcription

1 3. Atmospheric Supply of Nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in 2015 In this chapter we present the results of the model simulation of atmospheric transport and deposition of nitrogen to the Baltic Sea for the year The latest EMEP/MSC-W model version (EMEP Status Report 1/2017) has been used for the 2015 model runs, as well as for the estimation of historical nitrogen depositions in the period necessary for calculation of normalized depositions. For the HELCOM purpose the model was run in 50 km 50 km, in the EMEP domain. Meteorology, emissions, and boundary conditions for 2015 have been used as input. Annual and monthly depositions of oxidized and reduced nitrogen to the Baltic Sea basin have been calculated for 2015 and are presented here. Since, according to a EMEP bureau decision, the source-receptor matrices were not calculated this year, we do not present the contributions to nitrogen deposition from individual sources this year. In addition to depositions we also present the 2015 emissions of nitrogen oxides and ammonia, including distribution in SNAP sectors for the HELCOM Contracting Parties. 3.1 Nitrogen emissions Table 3.1. Annual total 2015 emissions of nitrogen oxides and ammonia from the HELCOM Contracting Parties and ship traffic on the Baltic Sea. The sum of HELCOM emissions is also included. Units: kt N per year. Emission source Pollutant NO x NH 3 Denmark Estonia 9 10 Finland Germany Latvia Lithuania Poland Russian Federation Sweden HELCOM Baltic Sea 98

2 22 EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM Figure 3.1. Map of annual emissions of oxidised nitrogen (including emissions from the ship traffic) in the Baltic Sea region in Units: tonnes of NO 2 per year and per km grid cell.

3 Atmospheric Supply of Nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in Figure 3.2. Map of annual emission of ammonia in the Baltic Sea region in Units: tonnes of NH 3 per year and per km grid cell.

4 24 EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM Figure 3.3. Map of annual nitrogen oxides emissions from ship traffic in the Baltic Sea in Emission data from the Finnish Meteorological Institute. Units: kg of NO 2 per year and per data grid cell.

5 Atmospheric Supply of Nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in Table 3.2. List of the 11 SNAP emission sectors as specified in the EMEP-CORINAIR Emission Inventory Guidebook. Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3 Sector 4 Sector 5 Sector 6 Sector 7 Sector 8 Sector 9 Sector 10 Sector 11 Combustion in energy and transformation industry Non-industrial combustion plants Combustion in manufacturing industry Production processes Extraction and distribution of fossil fuels and geothermal energy Solvent and other product use Road transport Other mobile sources and machinery (including ship traffic) Waste treatment and disposal Agriculture Other sources and sinks

6 26 EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM DENMARK ESTONIA FINLAND GERMANY LATVIA LITHUANIA POLAND RUSSIA SWEDEN Figure 3.4. Annual 2015 nitrogen oxides emissions from the HELCOM Contracting Parties split into the SNAP sectors.

7 Atmospheric Supply of Nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in DENMARK ESTONIA FINLAND GERMANY LATVIA LITHUANIA POLAND RUSSIA SWEDEN Figure 3.5. Annual 2015 ammonia emissions from the HELCOM Contracting Parties split into the SNAP sectors.

8 28 EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM 3.2 Annual deposition of nitrogen Figure 3.6. Map of annual deposition of oxidised nitrogen (dry + wet) in Units: kg N km -2 yr -1. The annual deposition of oxidized nitrogen to the Baltic Sea basin amounts to 121 kt N.

9 Atmospheric Supply of Nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in Figure 3.7. Map of annual deposition of reduced nitrogen (dry + wet) in Units: kg N km -2 yr -1. The annual deposition of reduced nitrogen to the Baltic Sea basin amounts to 113 kt N.

10 30 EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM Figure 3.8. Map of annual deposition of total (oxidised + reduced) nitrogen in Units: kg N km -2 yr -1. The annual deposition of total nitrogen to the Baltic Sea basin amounts to 234 kt N.

11 Atmospheric Supply of Nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in Figure 3.9. Maps of annual precipitation in 2014 and in Units: mm yr -1.

12 32 EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM 3.3 Normalised annual depositions Figure Normalised deposition of oxidised nitrogen to the Baltic Sea basin for the period Minimum, maximum and actual annual values of the deposition are also shown. The minimum and maximum annual values are determined by the meteorological conditions for each particular year.

13 Atmospheric Supply of Nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in Figure Normalised deposition of reduced nitrogen to the Baltic Sea basin for the period Minimum, maximum and actual annual values of the deposition are also shown. The minimum and maximum annual values are determined by the meteorological conditions for each particular year.

14 34 EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM Figure Normalised deposition of total nitrogen to the Baltic Sea basin for the period Minimum, maximum and actual annual values of the deposition are also shown. The minimum and maximum annual values are determined by the meteorological conditions for each particular year.

15 Atmospheric Supply of Nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in Monthly depositions of nitrogen Figure Monthly depositions of oxidised, reduced and total (oxidised + reduced) nitrogen to the entire Baltic Sea basin in Table 3.3. Values of monthly depositions of oxidised, reduced and total (oxidised + reduced) nitrogen to the entire Baltic Sea basin in Units: kt N month -1. Month Oxidised Reduced Total January February March April May June July August September October November December

16 36 EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM 3.5 Comparison with observations As each year, also in 2017 the results of EMEP/MSC-W model were compared with available measurements from the EMEP stations, including HELCOM stations. Here we present a comparison of daily time series of wet deposition of nitrate and ammonia computed by EMEP/MSC-W model with observations for some stations in HELCOM countries where daily observation data were available for the year Figure Time series of daily wet deposition of Ammonium (left) and Nitrate (right) for the year The first row is for the station Leba in Poland and the second row for Lahemaa in Estonia.

17 Atmospheric Supply of Nitrogen to the Baltic Sea in Figure 3.14 (cont.). Time series of daily wet deposition of Ammonium (left) and Nitrate (right) for the year The first row is for the station Raaoe in Sweden and the second row for Preila in Lithuania.

18 38 EMEP Centres Joint Report for HELCOM 3.6 Conclusions for Chapter 3 Compared to 2014 nitrogen oxides emissions in 2015 are lower in Estonia (-8%), Sweden (-4%), Germany (-3%) and Poland (-1%). They are 11% higher in Russia, but it has to be noted that expert estimates were applied for Russian emissions for In addition to Russia, the increase of nitrogen oxides emissions between 2014 and 2015 can be noticed in Denmark (+1%), Finland (+2%), Latvia (+4%) and Lithuania (+7%). Emissions from all HELCOM countries are 5% higher in 2015 than in Ship emissions from the Baltic Sea are 20% higher in 2015 compared to 2014, because FMI emissions were used in 2015 instead of CEIP emissions Annual 2015 ammonia emissions are quite different from 2014 emissions in most of the HELCOM countries. They are higher in Poland (+1%), Germany (+3%), Latvia (+7%), Sweden (+12%) and Russia (+39%). However, it has to be noted that emissions from Russia in 2015 are based on expert estimates rather than officially reported data. Ammonia emissions were smaller in 2015 than in 2014 in Denmark (-1%), Estonia (-11%), Finland (-14%) and Lithuania (-30%). Emissions from all HELCOM countries were 17% higher in 2015 than in There are only very small changes in spatial distributions of nitrogen oxides and ammonia emissions in 2015 compared to previous years. Combustion and transportation SNAP sectors are the main sources of nitrogen oxides emissions, whereas agriculture is the dominating sector for ammonia emissions, for all HELCOM CPs. Not much change has occurred over the years. Calculated annual deposition of total nitrogen to the Baltic Sea basin in 2015 was 234 kt, i.e. approximately 2% lower than in Deposition of oxidised nitrogen accounted for 52% of total nitrogen deposition in Spatial distributions of nitrogen depositions to the Baltic Sea basin in 2015 are similar to those in previous years with a clear gradient south to north. Normalised depositions of oxidised and total nitrogen to the Baltic Sea basin show a decreasing pattern in the period Normalised depositions of reduced nitrogen are also decreasing, but very little and they are slightly increasing in the last two years. No clear seasonal pattern can be found in monthly nitrogen depositions in The maximum of the deposition occurs in October and November.