CroAdapt Nacionalno savjetovanje: Prilagodba klimatskim promjenama u Hrvatskoj, Zagreb, 23. siječnja, 2014.
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1 ClimVar & ICZM Daria Povh Škugor com.hr PAP/RAC CroAdapt Nacionalno savjetovanje: Prilagodba klimatskim promjenama u Hrvatskoj, Zagreb, Meeting to present initial resullts DIVA and LA, Split, 4 5 November, 2013
2 PAP/RAC Priority Actions Programme Regional Activity Centre CP/RAC BP/RAC INFO/RAC PAP/RAC Established in 1977, as one of 7 Regional Activity Centres of Mediterranean Action Plan (MAP) MED POL SPA/RAC REMPEC MAP is one of 18 regional seas of UNEP Today s key mission of PAP/RAC is asistance to countries to implement the ICZM Protocol Meeting to present initial resullts DIVA and LA, Split, 4 5 November, 2013
3 MAP STRUCTURE MCSD (Mediterranean Commission on Sustainable Development) UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) Meeting of the Contracting Parties to the Barcelona Convention Bureau MEDU (Co-ordinating Unit acting as secretariat) National Focal Points United Nations specialised agencies MED POL REMPEC BP/RAC PAP/RAC SPA/RAC INFO/RAC CP/RAC 100 HS Meeting to present initial resullts DIVA and LA, Split, 4 5 November, 2013
4 Key PAP/RAC Achievements Ongoing... Coastal Area Management Programmes (CAMPs) MAP's programmes for sustainable coastal management ICZM PROTOCOL Signed in 2008 Entered into force CroAdapt Nacionalno savjetovanje: Prilagodba klimatskim promjenama u Hrvatskoj, Zagreb, Meeting to present initial resullts DIVA and LA, Split, 4 5 November, 2013
5 Project presentation Cost assessment DIVA ICZM Plan Climagine CroAdapt Nacionalno savjetovanje: Meeting to present Prilagodba initial resullts klimatskim DIVA promjenama and LA, Split, u Hrvatskoj, 4 5 November, Zagreb, 2013
6 ClimVar & ICZM in a nutshell Main objectives To assist countries to mainstream the issue of climate variability and change into the ICZM by using instruments provided by Mediterranean ICZM Protocol. Financing US$ 2.3M (GEF funds) plus US$ 7M co-financing Duration 2-year duration ( ) IMPLEMENTING AGENCY UNEP EXECUTING AGENCIES Coordinating Unit of the UNEP/MAP; PAP/RAC; GWP Med and Blue Plan COUNTRIES OF IMPLEMENTATION Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Palestinian Authority, Albania, Montenegro and Croatia CroAdapt Nacionalno savjetovanje: Meeting to present Prilagodba initial resullts klimatskim DIVA promjenama and LA, Split, u Hrvatskoj, 4 5 November, Zagreb, 2013
7 ClimVar & ICZM a part of wider perspective MedPartnership project Climate Variability and ICZM The biggest partnership project in Mediterranean against land based pollution, for conservation of biodiversity and for ICZM 12 countries, 10 partners Budget: 12,9MUS$ +36 M cofinancing Duration: 5 years Mission: To include climate variability and change Meeting to present initial resullts DIVA and LA, Split, 4 5 November, 2013
8 Project Components MedPartnership ClimVar and ICZM INTEGRATED APPROACHES LAND BASED POLLUTION BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION DATA MANAGEMENT KNOWLEDGE BUILDING INTEGRATION INTO ICZM CroAdapt Nacionalno savjetovanje: Meeting to present Prilagodba initial resullts klimatskim DIVA promjenama and LA, Split, u Hrvatskoj, 4 5 November, Zagreb, 2013
9 Project Activities MedPartnership ClimVar and ICZM INTEGRATED APPROACHES: National ICZM Strategies: Algeria & Montenegro Economic & Social Assess. for Croatian Marine & Coastal Strategy ICZM plans: Reghaia (Algeria), Buna/Bojana TB Integrative Methodological Framework Replication: Croatian Marine and Coastal Strategy DATA MANAGEMENT KNOWLEDGE BUILDING: DIVA: Croatia & Tunisia Downscaling of DIVA Šibenik-Knin County (Croatia) INTEGRATION INTO ICZM: ICZM Plan with focus on CVC Šibenik-Knin County (Croatia) Awareness raising LAND BASED POLLUTION BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION CroAdapt Nacionalno savjetovanje: Meeting to present Prilagodba initial resullts klimatskim DIVA promjenama and LA, Split, u Hrvatskoj, 4 5 November, Zagreb, 2013
10 Project Activities MedPartnership ClimVar and ICZM INTEGRATED APPROACHES: National ICZM Strategies: Algeria & Montenegro Economic & Social Assess. for Croatian Marine & Coastal Strategy ICZM plans: Reghaia (Algeria), Buna/Bojana TB Integrative Methodological Framework Replication: Croatian Marine and Coastal Strategy DATA MANAGEMENT KNOWLEDGE BUILDING: DIVA: Croatia & Tunisia Downscaling of DIVA Šibenik-Knin County (Croatia) INTEGRATION INTO ICZM: ICZM Plan with focus on CVC - ŠK County (Croatia) Awareness raising LAND BASED POLLUTION BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION CroAdapt Nacionalno savjetovanje: Meeting to present Prilagodba initial resullts klimatskim DIVA promjenama and LA, Split, u Hrvatskoj, 4 5 November, Zagreb, 2013
11 Activities in Croatia NOW DIVA Downscaling of DIVA ŠK County Economic & Social Assessment Preliminary results Final results National level Regional level ICZM Plan ŠK County Climagine Marine & Coastal Strategy Meeting to present initial resullts DIVA and LA, Split, 4 5 November, 2013
12 What is DIVA? DIVA Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment considered as currently most comprehensive and most relevant method policy-wise integrated global model for assessing biophysical and socioeconomic consequence of sea-level rise and associated extreme water levels acc. to various physical and socio-economic scenarios, taking into account various adaptation strategies. University of Kiel DIVA was formed within DINAS COAST project, and applied in others such as PESETA, CLIMATE-COST, ADAM and BRANCH, UNFCCC report on coastal area adaptation, in Asia-Pacific Integrated Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Network of Southeast and East Asia, COMPASS project for Argentina, Bracil and Chile etc. Meeting to present initial resullts DIVA and LA, Split, 4 5 November, 2013
13 DIVA DATA COLLECTION CroAdapt Nacionalno savjetovanje: Meeting to present Prilagodba initial resullts klimatskim DIVA promjenama and LA, Split, u Hrvatskoj, 4 5 November, Zagreb, 2013
14 DIVA COASTAL SEGMENTATION Meeting to present initial resullts DIVA and LA, Split, 4 5 November, 2013
15 DIVA CROATIAN COASTLINE CroAdapt Nacionalno savjetovanje: Meeting to present Prilagodba initial resullts klimatskim DIVA promjenama and LA, Split, u Hrvatskoj, 4 5 November, Zagreb, 2013
16 Croatia People below 2m in 2011 CroAdapt Nacionalno savjetovanje: Meeting to present Prilagodba initial resullts klimatskim DIVA promjenama and LA, Split, u Hrvatskoj, 4 5 November, Zagreb, 2013
17 Croatia Population scenarios We use 3 socioeconomic scenarios SSP3: poor, densely populated world SSP5: rich, less densely populated world SSP2: in between Declining population for Croatia in all scenarios 2100: 2.2 to 3.4 million people Source: SSPs, IIASA Meeting to present initial resullts DIVA and LA, Split, 4 5 November, 2013
18 Croatia Sea level rise scenarios Three SLR scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 All computed with HadGEM2-ES and an ice-shield melting projection SLR for Croatia between 28 and 105 cm in 2100 Uplift included Meeting to present initial resullts DIVA and LA, Split, 4 5 November, 2013
19 Croatia People Flooded Meeting to present initial resullts DIVA and LA, Split, 4 5 November, 2013
20 Croatia People Flooded 2100, SSP2, RCP4.5, no Adaptation Meeting to present initial resullts DIVA and LA, Split, 4 5 November, 2013
21 COASTAL CONSTRUCTION TRENDS CroAdapt Nacionalno savjetovanje: Meeting to present Prilagodba initial resullts klimatskim DIVA promjenama and LA, Split, u Hrvatskoj, 4 5 November, Zagreb, 2013
22 WHO WILL COVER THE COST CROATIA NETHERLANDS 4,3M 16,7M 6278 km COAST LINE 460 km GDP per capita in PPS CroAdapt Nacionalno savjetovanje: Meeting to present Prilagodba initial resullts klimatskim DIVA promjenama and LA, Split, u Hrvatskoj, 4 5 November, Zagreb, 2013
23 CroAdapt Nacionalno savjetovanje: Meeting to present Prilagodba initial resullts klimatskim DIVA promjenama and LA, Split, u Hrvatskoj, 4 5 November, Zagreb, 2013
24 CroAdapt Nacionalno savjetovanje: Meeting to present Prilagodba initial resullts klimatskim DIVA promjenama and LA, Split, u Hrvatskoj, 4 5 November, Zagreb, 2013
25 PURPOSE OF IZCM PLAN DEVELOPMENT Defining sustainable development policy of the Šibenik Knin County s coastal zone Coordination of development initiatives Support to formulation of sectoral policies and plans Support to mainstreaming sectoral plans into coastal zone sust. development policy Meeting to present initial resullts DIVA and LA, Split, 4 5 November, 2013
26 LEGAL BASIS ICZM Protocol Zoning Plan of the Šibenik Knin County At national level, no legal obligations to prepare ICZM plans or CC adaptation plans exist yet EXPECTED RESULTS ICZM plan is not a zoning, normative or regulatory document, but an indicative plan It defines specially endangered areas in relation to coastal processes, particularly areas vulnerable to climate change and variability It suggests mitigation measures which should be incorporated into normative plans It defines a system of coastal zone management: instruments to avoid conflicts, achieve agreement and consensus Primarily a long term plan, in line with the long term nature of the consequences of coastal processes CroAdapt Nacionalno savjetovanje: Meeting to present Prilagodba initial resullts klimatskim DIVA promjenama and LA, Split, u Hrvatskoj, 4 5 November, Zagreb, 2013
27 ICZM PLAN PREPARATION PROCESS ICZM PLAN LAUNCH 01/2013 ICZM PLAN ready for adoption 06/2014 DIVA Local Assessment Climagine CroAdapt Nacionalno savjetovanje: Meeting to present Prilagodba initial resullts klimatskim DIVA promjenama and LA, Split, u Hrvatskoj, 4 5 November, Zagreb, 2013
28 THEMES: 1. Territory as the key resource of coastal zone 2. Climate variability and change, a transversal theme that impacts: waters &water management infrastructure, biodiversity, economy and society. 3. Tools GIS CroAdapt Nacionalno savjetovanje: Meeting to present Prilagodba initial resullts klimatskim DIVA promjenama and LA, Split, u Hrvatskoj, 4 5 November, Zagreb, 2013
29 DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS: Coastal resources Development pressures/drivers Analysis of existing vulnerability/status Nature based Socio economic Institutional Developmental and climatic scenarios Analysis of future vulnerability CroAdapt Nacionalno savjetovanje: Meeting to present Prilagodba initial resullts klimatskim DIVA promjenama and LA, Split, u Hrvatskoj, 4 5 November, Zagreb, 2013
30 Dolac, 2013 Dolac, 2012 Jadrija Vodice, 2008 Pirovac, 2010 Tisno Meeting to present initial resullts DIVA and LA, Split, 4 5 November, 2013
31 Geospatial data analysis Ortophoto map Topography Administrative division Demographic data & economic statistics Coastal zone Hydrological data Physical planning data (purpose, infrastructure, protection) Protection of territory CroAdapt Nacionalno savjetovanje: Meeting to present Prilagodba initial resullts klimatskim DIVA promjenama and LA, Split, u Hrvatskoj, 4 5 November, Zagreb, 2013
32 Geospatial analysis Climate hazards Negative impacts of development processes Vulnerabilities CroAdapt Nacionalno savjetovanje: Meeting to present Prilagodba initial resullts klimatskim DIVA promjenama and LA, Split, u Hrvatskoj, 4 5 November, Zagreb, 2013
33 Developmental/physical plans Climate variability Development processes Climate projections and scenarios Climate change Coastal development Impacts Impacts, threats opportunities Existing vulnerability Natural Socio-economic Institutional Endangered sectors and zones ICZM Plan Climate change adaptation plan Future vulnerability Natural Socio-economic Institutional Endangered sectors and zones Existing adaptive capacity Adaptation possibilities Social development/demographic processes Accumulated knowledge Future adaptive capacity Existing experience, data and knowledge Meeting to present initial resullts DIVA and LA, Split, 4 5 November, 2013
34 CLIMAGINE What is Climagine? is a participatory method that enables identification of the vision of sustainable development; describe, assess and question the past, present and future sustainability levels of local systems by using sustainability indicators and thresholds; set the goals and define necessary monitoring schemes for sustainable development achievements with special focus on climate change, all with the help of relevant social actors. CroAdapt Nacionalno savjetovanje: Meeting to present Prilagodba initial resullts klimatskim DIVA promjenama and LA, Split, u Hrvatskoj, 4 5 November, Zagreb, 2013
35 PARTICIPATORY APPROACH ICZM PLAN LAUNCH 01/2013 Climagine 1 07/ /2013 Interviews with key actors 11/ / /2013 Climagine 2 Field trip Interviews with key actors Stakeholder analysis Communication strategy Climagine 3 03/2014 ICZM PLAN ready for adoption 06/2014 CroAdapt Nacionalno savjetovanje: Meeting present Prilagodba initial resullts klimatskim DIVA promjenama and LA, Split, u Hrvatskoj, 4 5 November, Zagreb, 2013
36 Themes identified tourism coastline infrastructure (facilities, water supply & sewage, ports/harbours, ) agriculture mariculture fires heat waves drinking water (accessibility, salinity, quality) What did Climagine reveal? pollution (industry near Knin) lake eutrophication sea level rise in Krka river estuary local economy on islands CroAdapt Nacionalno savjetovanje: Meeting to present Prilagodba initial resullts klimatskim DIVA promjenama and LA, Split, u Hrvatskoj, 4 5 November, Zagreb, 2013
37 OPEN AREA FIRES Identified as the nearest climate hazard High temperatures, less precipitation and more drought periods will certainly increase the fire hazards (IPCC) Extended duration of fire season is expected, extreme conditions in many areas, as well as increased risk zones and higher probability of fires over large areas (ForestEurope, 2010) According to EFFIS database, Croatia is among the European countries with the highest fire hazard CroAdapt Nacionalno savjetovanje: Meeting to present Prilagodba initial resullts klimatskim DIVA promjenama and LA, Split, u Hrvatskoj, 4 5 November, Zagreb, 2013
38 Average forest fire density and average burned forest percentage in Europe, Source: FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment 2010 Meeting to present initial resullts DIVA and LA, Split, 4 5 November, 2013
39 Thank You for your attention! CroAdapt Nacionalno savjetovanje: Meeting to present Prilagodba initial resullts klimatskim DIVA promjenama and LA, Split, u Hrvatskoj, 4 5 November, Zagreb, 2013
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