Sea Level Rise in New York:

Transcription

1 Sea Level Rise in New York: Vulnerabilities and Methods of Analysis Westchester Municipal Planning Federation 2017 Land Use Training Institute April 5, 2017 Anjali Sauthoff

2 What is Sea Level Rise? Image Source: Polarsurf.info

3 What is Sea Level Rise? Staten Island, Oct Source: ABC Local News Mold in home resulting from flooding. Image Source:

4 What is Sea Level Rise? South Street Seaport, October 30, Image Source: TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/GETTY IMAGES Image source: City Limits shuttered damaged businesses do not help anyone in the Rockaways

5 What is Sea Level Rise? Staten Island, Nov. 1, Source: NY Daily News Wall Street, Oct, 2012 Image Source: (Bryan Watts / Center for Conservation Biology

6 What Causes Changes in Sea Level?

7 Historical Sea Level Rise in New York Due to Thermal expansion Melting of ice sheets Land subsidence Local variations in ocean surface elevation

8 New York faces the nation's third largest coastal flooding threat, based on the size of its at-risk population

9 Findings from New York State Sea Level Rise Task Force Sea level rise and coastal flooding from storm surge are already affecting and will increasingly affect New York s entire coastline

10 Sea Level Rise Taskforce: The likelihood that powerful storms will hit New York State s coastline will increase in area and magnitude over time. Image Credit: RMS Catastrophe Risk Modeling

11 Sea Level Rise Task Force: Natural shoreline features currently provide critical benefits. They would be prohibitively expensive to replicate with human built systems. Source:

12 Sea Level Rise Task Force: Current investment and land use planning practices by both New York State and local governments are encouraging development in areas at high risk of coastal flooding and erosion.

13 Community Risk and Resilience Act (CRRA): 5 Major Provisions 1. Official sea level rise projections 2. Consideration of sea level rise, storm surge and flooding in facility siting, permitting and funding --State Flood Risk Management Guidance 3. Smart Growth Public Infrastructure Policy Act criteria --Guidance for Smart Growth Public Infrastructure Development 4. Guidance on natural resiliency measures --Use of Natural Measures to Enhance Resiliency 5. Model local laws concerning climate risk

14 DEC Announces New Sea Level Rise Projection Regulation for New York 6 NYCRR Part 490, Projected Sea-level Rise Region Long Island New York City/Lower Hudson Mid-Hudson Descriptor Low Lowmedium Medium Highmedium High Low Lowmedium Medium High - medi um High Low Lowmedium Medium Highmedium ClimAID Percentile s s s High *Inches of rise relative to baseline

15 DEC Announces New Sea Level Rise Projection Regulation for New York Very likely to be exceeded 6 NYCRR Part 490, Projected Sea-level Rise Region Long Island New York City/Lower Hudson Mid-Hudson Descriptor Low Lowmedium Medium Highmedium High Low Lowmedium Medium High - medi um High Low Lowmedium Medium Highmedium ClimAID Percentile s s s High *Inches of rise relative to baseline

16 DEC Announces New Sea Level Rise Projection Regulation for New York Likely to be exceeded 6 NYCRR Part 490, Projected Sea-level Rise Region Long Island New York City/Lower Hudson Mid-Hudson Descriptor Low Lowmedium Medium Highmedium High Low Lowmedium Medium High - medi um High Low Lowmedium Medium Highmedium ClimAID Percentile s s s High *Inches of rise relative to baseline

17 DEC Announces New Sea Level Rise Projection Regulation for New York About as likely as not to be exceeded 6 NYCRR Part 490, Projected Sea-level Rise Region Long Island New York City/Lower Hudson Mid-Hudson Descriptor Low Lowmedium Medium Highmedium High Low Lowmedium Medium High - medi um High Low Lowmedium Medium Highmedium ClimAID Percentile s s s High *Inches of rise relative to baseline

18 DEC Announces New Sea Level Rise Projection Regulation for New York Unlikely to be exceeded 6 NYCRR Part 490, Projected Sea-level Rise Region Long Island New York City/Lower Hudson Mid-Hudson Descriptor Low Lowmedium Medium Highmedium High Low Lowmedium Medium High - medi um High Low Lowmedium Medium Highmedium ClimAID Percentile s s s High *Inches of rise relative to baseline

19 DEC Announces New Sea Level Rise Projection Regulation for New York 6 NYCRR Part 490, Projected Sea-level Rise Very unlikely to be exceeded Region Long Island New York City/Lower Hudson Mid-Hudson Descriptor Low Lowmedium Medium Highmedium High Low Lowmedium Medium High - medi um High Low Lowmedium Medium Highmedium ClimAID Percentile s s s High *Inches of rise relative to baseline

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21 What is at Risk in Westchester County? Westchester County GIS data: DEF manholes, sewer lines County bridges Bee Line bus routes, stops County roads County properties County buildings and structures Sewage treatment facilities DEF Pump stations County Parks Community features Sensitive environmental areas NOAA Sea Level Rise Layers: 1 foot 3 feet 6 feet

22 County-Owned Infrastructure Potentially Affected by Sea Level Rise Infrastructure Category WC Sanitary Sewer Manholes (number, County-owned) WC Sanitary Sewer Lines (miles, County-owned) Outfalls (est. number, County-wide; inventory not finalized) Total Affected by 1ft SLR Affected by 3ft SLR Affected by 6ft SLR WC--Owned Roads (miles) Bus Stops (number) Bus Routes (miles) Bridges (number)

23 Westchester County GIS Analysis: Critical Infrastructure

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25 Westchester County GIS analysis: Sensitive Environmental Areas

26 Westchester County GIS Analysis: Hazardous Areas

27 Westchester County GIS Analysis: County-Owned Buildings/ Structures

28 Playland + NOAA Projected 1 ft Sea Level Rise

29 Playland + NOAA Projected 3 ft Sea Level Rise

30 Playland + NOAA Projected 6 ft Sea Level Rise

31 Westchester County GIS Analysis: Community Features

32 Potential Vulnerability of Westchester County: Flooding, Storm surge, High tides

33 Mamaroneck Wastewater Treatment Plant and Community Features + 3 ft SLR

34 Mamaroneck Wastewater Treatment Plant and Community Features + 3 ft SLR Mamaroneck Wastewater Treatment Plant and Community Features + Floodplains

35 Other Models

36 NOAA Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer A visualization tool for coastal communities showing potential impacts from sea level rise and coastal flooding as well as a planning level tool. Climate Central Surging Seas Risk Finder Provides maps, downloads, community analyses, sea level and flood risk projections demographic, economic and infrastructure variables, 1000s of communities NYSERDA Future Floodplain Mapper (Dewberry Consultants) Visualization tool for coastal communities on the Lower Hudson River and Long Island, showing potential floodplain extents and areas of damaging wave action under future sea level rise scenarios, relevant flood statistics at the community level. Columbia/CIESIN/Steven s Institute of Technology/NYSERDA Hudson River Flooding Decision Support System Online mapping tool to assess flooding impacts on lower Hudson River under multiple sea level rise and storm scenarios, merging effects of storm surge and rainfall. Also provides downloadable estimates of affected population and critical infrastructure, and cost estimates of building damage.

37 NOAA Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer A visualization tool for coastal communities showing potential impacts from sea level rise and coastal flooding as well as a planning level tool. Climate Central Surging Seas Risk Finder Provides maps, downloads, community analyses, sea level and flood risk projections demographic, economic and infrastructure variables, 1000s of communities NYSERDA Future Floodplain Mapper (Dewberry Consultants) Visualization tool for coastal communities on the Lower Hudson River and Long Island, showing potential floodplain extents and areas of damaging wave action under future sea level rise scenarios, relevant flood statistics at the community level. Columbia/CIESIN/Steven s Institute of Technology/NYSERDA Hudson River Flooding Decision Support System Online mapping tool to assess flooding impacts on lower Hudson River under multiple sea level rise and storm scenarios, merging effects of storm surge and rainfall. Also provides downloadable estimates of affected population and critical infrastructure, and cost estimates of building damage.

38 NOAA Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer A visualization tool for coastal communities showing potential impacts from sea level rise and coastal flooding as well as a planning level tool. Climate Central Surging Seas Risk Finder Provides maps, downloads, community analyses, sea level and flood risk projections demographic, economic and infrastructure variables, 1000s of communities NYSERDA Future Floodplain Mapper (Dewberry Consultants) Visualization tool for coastal communities on the Lower Hudson River and Long Island, showing potential floodplain extents and areas of damaging wave action under future sea level rise scenarios, relevant flood statistics at the community level. Columbia/CIESIN/Steven s Institute of Technology/NYSERDA Hudson River Flooding Decision Support System Online mapping tool to assess flooding impacts on lower Hudson River under multiple sea level rise and storm scenarios, merging effects of storm surge and rainfall. Also provides downloadable estimates of affected population and critical infrastructure, and cost estimates of building damage.

39 NOAA Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer A visualization tool for coastal communities showing potential impacts from sea level rise and coastal flooding as well as a planning level tool. Climate Central Surging Seas Risk Finder Provides maps, downloads, community analyses, sea level and flood risk projections demographic, economic and infrastructure variables, 1000s of communities NYSERDA Future Floodplain Mapper (Dewberry Consultants) Visualization tool for coastal communities on the Lower Hudson River and Long Island, showing potential floodplain extents and areas of damaging wave action under future sea level rise scenarios, relevant flood statistics at the community level. Columbia/CIESIN/Steven s Institute of Technology/NYSERDA Hudson River Flooding Decision Support System Online mapping tool to assess flooding impacts on lower Hudson River under multiple sea level rise and storm scenarios, merging effects of storm surge and rainfall. Also provides downloadable estimates of affected population and critical infrastructure, and cost estimates of building damage.

40 Thank You Questions: Anjali Sauthoff

41 Funding Programs Covered by CRRA: Water Pollution Control Revolving Fund (EFC) Drinking Water Revolving Fund (DOH, EFC) Local waterfront revitalization (DOS) Open space acquisition (DEC, OPRHP) Agricultural and farmland protection (DAM) Landfill closure assistance (DEC) Coastal rehabilitation project assistance (DEC) Open space project operation and maintenance agreements (OPRHP) Permitting programs identified in CRRA: CRRA Section 14-a: Oil and natural gas wells CRRA Section 15: Major projects: Protection of Waters Sewerage Service Liquefied natural gas and liquefied propane facilities Mined land reclamation Freshwater wetlands Tidal wetlands Coastal erosion hazard areas All of the above permitting programs are managed by the DEC. Facility-siting programs identified in CRRA: CRRA Section 4: Hazardous waste transportation, storage and distribution facility siting CRRA Section 9: Petroleum bulk storage CRRA Section 5: Hazardous substance bulk storage DEC manages all of the above facility-siting programs by regulation. Funding programs and agencies identified in CRRA: CRRA Section 3: Water Pollution Control Revolving Fund (DEC, EFC) CRRA Section 13: Drinking Water Revolving Fund (DOH, EFC) CRRA Sections 6,7: Open space acquisition (DEC, Office of Parks, Recreation and Historic Preservation [OPRHP]) CRRA Section 7: Open space project operation and maintenance agreements (OPRHP) CRRA Section 8: Landfill closure assistance (DEC) CRRA Section 11: Coastal rehabilitation project assistance (DEC) CRRA Section 10: Local waterfront revitalization (Department of State [DOS]) CRRA Section 12: Agricultural and farmland protection (DAM)