Impacts of deforestation on water balance components of a watershed on the Silesian Beskid

Transcription

1 Impacts of deforestation on water balance components of a watershed on the Silesian Beskid Grzegorz Durło, Małek S., J agiełło-leńczuk K., Kormanek M., Banach J., Dudek K., Barszcz J. Agricultural University in Cracow, Poland

2 International Soil & Water Assessment Tool Conference June 24-26, 2015 Schedule of presentation Study area Deforestation process Land cover changes and their consequences Climate models and scenarios Water balance past and present Plans for the future References Summary 2

3 International Soil & Water Assessment Tool Conference June 24-26, 2015 Study area Central Europe Western Carpathians Poland Western Beskids Silesian Beskid 720 km 2 Altitude from 270 to 1257 m a.s.l.

4 Study area - global Continent: Europe Region: Central Country: Poland Subregion: Western Carpathians Mesoregion: Silesian Beskid Basin: Vistula Sub basin:soła Catchment: Forest Creek 4

5 Study area - local Catchment: Forest Creek Area of cathchment: 22.1 km 2 Number of subcatchment: 2 Catchment_1: 11.9 km 2 Catchment_2: 10.2 km 2 Lenght of stream: km Potential forest area: 19.4 km 2 Meteorological station: 2 Rainfall collector: 3 Flow meter station: 3 Altitude: 550 to 1257 m a.s.l Average slope: 19.0 o Modal aspect: 174 o 5

6 C1 C2 Slope Aspect Catchments 6

7 International Soil & Water Assessment Tool Conference June 24-26, 2015 Deforestation process Changes in the annual rainfall distribution drought air temperature increase reducing the number of days with snow cover insects - fungi

8 Deforestation process 8 Photo. Marcin Rejment

9 Deforestation proces situation in 2010 year. 9 Photo. Marcin Rejment

10 Forest stands decomposition process

11 Share (%) The rate of forest degradation Summary area of forest decay is 56% Years 11

12 International Soil & Water Assessment Tool Conference June 24-26, 2015 Hypothesis Loss of stability by forest stands has a significant impact on the mountain catchment water balance and can have dangerous consequences for the environment The floods in the lowlands are closely dependent on the forest retention in the mountain catchment area 12

13 International Soil & Water Assessment Tool Conference June 24-26, 2015 Land cover changes and their conseqences Changing in water retention runoff speed flood - erosion

14 Changing the water retention at the catchment S rt _1 (mm) S rt _2 (mm) Base Base Catchment_1 Change of retention: 45.0% Catchment_2 Change of retention 42.6% 14

15 Changing the speed of water runoff from the catchment T lag _1 (hour) Base Base Tlag_2 (hour) 12.9 Catchment_1 Change of outflow delay: 47.0% Catchment_2 Change of outflow delay: 48.0% 15

16 International Soil & Water Assessment Tool Conference June 24-26, 2015 Climate models and scenarios GISS_E Model GISS_WC Model RTP Model RWB Model - WGN_K data generator

17 Climate models Climate norm Air temperature Parametrer and time period Circulation model Air temperature Parameter/Time/Change Circulation model Air temperature Parameter/Time/Change (50 years) Average - year - winter - summer Standard dev. - year +6.0 C -1.9 C C +0.8 C GISS Model E Average - year - winter - summer Standard dev. - year +2.8 C +3.2 C +2.0 C +12 % GISS Model E Var. WC Average - year - winter - summer Standard dev. - year +0.9 C +1.1 C +0.7 C +4,0 % Climate norm Rainfall Parametrer and time period Circulation model Rainfall Parameter/Time/Change Circulation model Rainfall Parameter/Time/Change (50 years) Average - year - winter - summer Standard dev. - year 1210 mm 256 mm 435 mm 178 mm GISS Model E Average - year - winter - summer Standard dev. - year +10 % +15 % 0 % +15 % GISS Model E Var. WC Average - year - winter - summer Standard dev. - year +3,0 % +5,0 % 0 % +5,0 % 17

18 Climate change based on two models calculation example of results Climate indicators Time period Time period GISS_E GISS_E_WC Yearly average air temperature Average of vegetation season air temperature Average of yearly maximum air temperature 8.9 9, Average of yearly minimum air temperature 2.2 2, Vegetation period duration (days) Climate indicators Time period Time period GISS_E GISS_E_WC Yearly sum of rainfall (mm) Sum of rainfall in vegetation season Number of days with rainfall (year) Number of days with rainfall (IV-X) Winter to Summer rainfall ratio (%)

19 J/01 M/03 M/05 J/07 S/09 N/11 J/14 M/16 M/18 J/20 S/22 N/24 J/27 M/29 M/31 J/33 S/35 N/37 J/40 M/42 M/44 J/46 S/48 N/50 J/53 M/55 M/57 J/59 S/61 N/63 J/66 M/68 M/70 J/72 S/74 N/76 J/79 M/81 M/83 J/85 S/87 N/89 J/92 M/94 M/96 J/98 J/01 M/03 M/05 J/07 S/09 N/11 J/14 M/16 M/18 J/20 S/22 N/24 J/27 M/29 M/31 J/33 S/35 N/37 J/40 M/42 M/44 J/46 S/48 N/50 J/53 M/55 M/57 J/59 S/61 N/63 J/66 M/68 M/70 J/72 S/74 N/76 J/79 M/81 M/83 J/85 S/87 N/89 J/92 M/94 M/96 J/98 J/01 A/03 J/05 O/07 J/10 A/12 J/14 O/16 J/19 A/21 J/23 O/25 J/28 A/30 J/32 O/34 J/37 A/39 J/41 O/43 J/46 A/48 J/50 O/52 J/55 A/57 J/59 O/61 J/64 A/66 J/68 O/70 J/73 A/75 J/77 O/79 J/82 A/84 J/86 O/88 J/91 A/93 J/95 O/97 Based on GISS_E_WC model meteorological and hydrological data were generated (WGENK) PREC (mm) 140 PET (mm) MMSF (l s -1 km -2 )

20 International Soil & Water Assessment Tool Conference June 24-26, 2015 Water balance Reducing of rainfall interception reducing of water retention reducing of transpiration faster outflow rapid runoff

21 Input data Catchment area Lenght of cathment Slope of cathcment Sum of precipitation Sum of evaporation Average sreamflow Summarize outflow Retention Type of soil Soil permeability index Type of forest Kind of tree species Forest density Forest area 21

22 Water balance components (XI-X) preliminary results SubCatchment_1 (northern part) Time period Time period GISS_E GISS_E_WC Yearly average sum of precipitation (mm) Yearly average sum of evapotranspiration (mm) Yearly average streamflow (dm 3 s -1 km -2 ) Yearly average retention change (mm) SubCatchment_2 (southern part) Time period Time period GISS_E GISS_E_WC Yearly average sum of precipitation (mm) Yearly average sum of evapotranspiration (mm) Yearly average streamflow (dm 3 s -1 km -2 ) Yearly average retention change (mm)

23 J/01 N/03 S/06 J/09 M/12 M/15 J/18 N/20 S/23 J/26 M/29 M/32 J/35 N/37 S/40 J/43 M/46 M/49 J/52 N/54 S/57 J/60 M/63 M/66 J/69 N/71 S/74 J/77 M/80 M/83 J/86 N/88 S/91 J/94 M/97 Water retention change now and in the future Water retention at the catchment (mm) ??? Years 23

24 Water retention in the future taking into account changes in land cover by forest (mm) Forest plantations Adaptation process???

25 Plans for the future Fast afforestation - development of slopes small retention - biodiversity

26 Revitalization of forest stands at Silesian Beskid Species Catchment_1 Catchment_2 Spruce Beech Fir Larch Birch Sycamore Other Species Catchment_1 Catchment_2 Spruce Beech Fir Larch Birch Sycamore Sorb, Elm, Oak Decidous/Coniferous = 0.17 Decidous/Coniferous =

27 Cause - effect 1. Adverse changes in water retention occured in just 10 years 2. For the reconstruction of retention need about years 3. Some changes may be irreversible eg erosion and movement of soils 4. Increasing the risk of floods 5. Restoring balance in the environment even at such a small scale is a very expensive proces Water runoff change Modification of retention Deforestation process Climate balance disorder Change of landuse 27

28 Summary The analysis confirmed that the rate of changes of forest cover played a dominant role in watershed water balance The effects of deforestation on the hydrological processes have been strengthened by changes in weather and climate It is possible to improve the water balance conditions after ca. 50 years, when seedlings and young forest will reach density parameters to increasing retention Changing the ratio between winter and summer rainfall may slow down this process. Restoration of water balance stability will be delayed. But only one extreme weather event and everything goes back to the beginning 28

29 After windstorm 2013/ and Max wind speed 37.0 m/s Exposure time 11 hours Woods losses (3 Forest Inspectorate) ~ m 3 29

30 International Soil & Water Assessment Tool Conference June 24-26, 2015 References Richardson C., Wright D WGEN a model for generating daily weather variables. US Dep. of Agric. ARS, 8, ss. 83. Smith J.B., Pitts G.J Regional climate change scenarios for vulnerability and adaptation assessments. Clim. Chang., 36, 1-2, Kuchar L Using WGENK to generale synthetic daily weather data for model ling of agricultural processes. Math. Comp. Samul., 65, Rahman K., Maringanti C., Beniston M., Widmer F., Abbaspour K., Lehmann A Streamflow Modeling in a Highly Managed Mountainous Glacier Watershed Using SWAT: The Upper Rhone River Watershed Case in Switzerland. Wat. Res. Manag., 27(2),

31 Impacts of deforestation on water balance components of a watershed on the Silesian Beskid Thank you Research was funded by Polish National Science Centre and the Polish State Forests National Forest Holding 31