How strong are the global biogeochemical feedbacks between permafrost and climate?
|
|
- Kimberly Lyons
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 NEESPI - Focus Research Center Biogeochemical Cycle Studies MPI - BGC, Jena, Germany How strong are the global biogeochemical feedbacks between permafrost and climate? Martin Heimann Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany martin.heimann@bgc-jena.mpg.de
2 Carbon cycle - climate system feedbacks Climate CO2 Atmosphere Emissions from burning of fossil fuels and cement production Changes in landuse and land management Landbiosphere Ocean Climate response!t,!p,...!co2,!ch4 + Antropogenic emissions Climate driven feedback sources Y coupled = f Y uncoupled
3 Global CO2 budget over the next 100 years: Based on C 4 MIP results 20 A2-SRES Emissions PgC yr C 4 MIP Simulations: Global climate-carbon cycle feedback factor: 1.18±0.11 Climate feedbacks Total uptake by land and ocean Decadal averages, smoothed C 4 MIP Simulations, Friedlingstein et al., 2006
4 C 4 MIP: Cumulative climate feedback effect on carbon stocks (Ncou-Nunc)t= (Ncou-Nunc)t=1910 Global 60N-90N Model No. 6 Model No PgC yr PgC yr 1 C 4 MIP Simulations, Friedlingstein et al., 2006
5 Missing processes: Permafrost soil carbon - climate feedbacks
6 Missing processes: Permafrost soil carbon - climate feedbacks Air Temperature + CO 2, CH 4 concentration + Soil Temperature + Soil carbon release (CO 2, CH 4 ) + + Soil thawing depth + + Microbial metabolic activty Heat production
7 Permafrost extent in northern hemisphere National Snow and Ice Data Center
8 Land carbon stocks in boreal and arctic zone (PgC) low high soils peatlands frozen soils vegetation McGuire et al., 2009, Ecological Monographs
9 How much permafrost carbon is vulnerable on a time scale of 100 years (based on typical global warming scenario)? Source Cumulative release (PgC) Annual emissions (PgC yr -1 ) Zhuang et al ~ Gruber et al Khvorostyanov et al., 2008 (Yedoma only) 260 (CO2) 30 (CH4) 2.6 (CO2) 0.3 (CH4)
10 Idealized 1-d Model of CH4, CO2 and O2 in permafrost soil F Khvorostyanov et al., Tellus, 2008
11 e 17 of Tellus B (a) Soil temperature ( C): talik formation when decomposi18 With metabolic heat generation metabolic heat generation VULNERABILITY OF PERMAFROST CARBON TO GLOBAL WARMING.Without PART 1. MODEL DESCRIPTION AND ROLE OF HEAT GEN tion heat is On. Contour interval is 4 C (a) Soil temperature ( C): talik formation when decomposi(b) restoring when decom37 (c) Soil Soil temperature temperature (( C): C): permafrost no talik formation when decompo tion heat is On. Contour interval is 4 C position heatis is Off. On.Contour Contourinterval intervalisis4 4CC sition heat Talik formation Khvorostyanov et al., Tellus, 2008 Atmospheric step change warming experiment (+5 C at model year 1000) r Fo Pe R er Fo r
12 Global Carbon Cycle - Additional Feedback from Permafrost Degradation 20 PgC yr A2-SRES Emissions Climate feedbacks on vegetation and soils (C4MIP) Additional Feedback from permafrost degradation PgC yr -1? Total uptake by land and ocean Decadal averages, smoothed C 4 MIP Simulations, Friedlingstein et al., 2006
13 Feedback Analysis, Carbon Cycle Net feedback factor: f = 1 (1 g) 1.38 Feedback Factor IPSL MPI Cumulative Permafrost Release PgC Friedlingstein et al., 2006
14 Global Feedback from Methane Release Upper Range: 0.3 PgC yr-1 = 400 TgCH4 yr -1 At steady state ~ 1500 ppb Radiative forcing: 0.48 (current) ~1.0 Wm-2
15 Observing strategy - Top-down method: Possible surface source uncertainty reduction from atmospheric concentration measurement network
16 59&8! 23&! H>8-4<-0! 1502<0&02! 23&! :<GG&8&01&! '&2F&&0! 23&! 2F5! 2<=&! 4&8<&4! 8&G6&12! 2 '7!23&!2-<.-!9&.&2-2<50!<0!4>==&8!-0:!23&!&=<44<504!<0!F<02&8!G85=!23&!'>80<0.! 5G!G544<6!G>&64!-0:!45<6!8&4D<8-2<50B!;<=<6-8!4<.0-64!-8&!4&&0!<0!23&!=&-4>8&=&024! G85=!23&!523&8!.-4&4B!C!K>-02<2-2<9&!-44&44=&02!5G!23&!:-2-!0&1&44<2-2&4!23&!>4&! 5G!15=D8&3&04<9&!-2=54D3&8<1!28-04D582!=5:&6<0.$!F3<13!<4!1>88&0267!'&<0.!D&8L G58=&:B! Daytime atmospheric CO concentration measurements in PBL at Zotino Tall Tower Observatory (ZOTTO, 60 N, 90 E)!!!!! %<.>8&! MB! N&-4>8&=&024! 5G! 23&! 1501&028-2<50! G85=! 23&! O#=! 6&9&6! 5G! 25F&8! P.8&&0! D5<024Q! :-72<=&! =&-4>8&=&024$! '6-1J! :524Q! F&&J67! -9&8L -.&4$!'6-1J!6<0&Q!4=5523!1>89&!G<2!2385>.3!23&!F&&J67!=&-4>8&=&024RB!%58!8&G&8L Kozlova et al., 2008
17 CH4 Inversions: No evidence of positive trend in northern latitudes Bousquet et al., 2006, ICOS CarboScope (
18 CO2 Inversions: No evidence of positive trend in northern latitudes ICOS CarboScope ( CARBONTRACKER-EU, LSCE-Inversion, MPI-BGC Jena Inversion
19 Conclusions
20 Conclusions Northern hemisphere land permafrost contains a huge, potentially vulnerable carbon pool.
21 Conclusions Northern hemisphere land permafrost contains a huge, potentially vulnerable carbon pool. Traditional permafrost melting yields small carbon releases on a 100 yr time scale (~ 0.2 PgC/yr).
22 Conclusions Northern hemisphere land permafrost contains a huge, potentially vulnerable carbon pool. Traditional permafrost melting yields small carbon releases on a 100 yr time scale (~ 0.2 PgC/yr). Worst case scenario: Triggering of postulated organic carbon decomposition heat strong permafrost degradation over next 100 years. Upper bounds: ~ 3 PgC/yr as CO2, ~ 400 TgCH4/yr.
23 Conclusions Northern hemisphere land permafrost contains a huge, potentially vulnerable carbon pool. Traditional permafrost melting yields small carbon releases on a 100 yr time scale (~ 0.2 PgC/yr). Worst case scenario: Triggering of postulated organic carbon decomposition heat strong permafrost degradation over next 100 years. Upper bounds: ~ 3 PgC/yr as CO2, ~ 400 TgCH4/yr. Worst case scenario increases global net carbon cycle feedback factor from 1.2 to 1.3, and doubles CH4 radiative forcing.
24 Conclusions Northern hemisphere land permafrost contains a huge, potentially vulnerable carbon pool. Traditional permafrost melting yields small carbon releases on a 100 yr time scale (~ 0.2 PgC/yr). Worst case scenario: Triggering of postulated organic carbon decomposition heat strong permafrost degradation over next 100 years. Upper bounds: ~ 3 PgC/yr as CO2, ~ 400 TgCH4/yr. Worst case scenario increases global net carbon cycle feedback factor from 1.2 to 1.3, and doubles CH4 radiative forcing. Top-down atmospheric inversions do not show any convincing trends of enhanced CO2 or CH4 releases in the northern latitudes.
25 Conclusions Northern hemisphere land permafrost contains a huge, potentially vulnerable carbon pool. Traditional permafrost melting yields small carbon releases on a 100 yr time scale (~ 0.2 PgC/yr). Worst case scenario: Triggering of postulated organic carbon decomposition heat strong permafrost degradation over next 100 years. Upper bounds: ~ 3 PgC/yr as CO2, ~ 400 TgCH4/yr. Worst case scenario increases global net carbon cycle feedback factor from 1.2 to 1.3, and doubles CH4 radiative forcing. Top-down atmospheric inversions do not show any convincing trends of enhanced CO2 or CH4 releases in the northern latitudes. Zero th order assessment. Ignores a host of possible secondary biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks. These need to be studied in more detail to quantify better the global net feedback factor. But will very unlikely change the overall magnitude of the effect.
Martin Heimann Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
Martin Heimann Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany martin.heimann@bgc-jena.mpg.de 1 Northern Eurasia: winter: enhanced warming in arctic, more precip summer: general warming in center,
More informationSoils and Climate Change
Soils and Climate Change Susan Trumbore Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry and Earth System Science, UC Irvine thanks to Marion Schrumpf, MPI-BGC and EAG Schuur, Northern Arizona University CO 2
More informationThe role of the biosphere for the carbon cycle in a changing climate
GEOSCIENCE INFORMATION FOR TEACHERS (GIFT) WORKSHOP EGU General Assembly, Vienna, April 2008 The role of the biosphere for the carbon cycle in a changing climate (Principles Factors Models Uncertainties)
More informationModelling the global carbon cycle
Modelling the global carbon cycle Chris Jones, Eleanor Burke, Angela Gallego-Sala (U. Exeter)» UNFCCC, Bonn, 24 October 2013 Introduction Why model the global carbon cycle? Motivation from climate perspective
More informationCarbonTracker - CH 4. Lori Bruhwiler, Ed Dlugokencky, Steve Montzka. Earth System Research Laboratory Boulder, Colorado
CarbonTracker - CH 4 Lori Bruhwiler, Ed Dlugokencky, Steve Montzka Earth System Research Laboratory Boulder, Colorado CO 2 CH 4 Fluxes We Estimate: Terrestrial Biosphere Oceans Fluxes We Know : Fossil
More informationVulnerability of east Siberia s frozen carbon stores to future warming
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 35, L10703, doi:10.1029/2008gl033639, 2008 Vulnerability of east Siberia s frozen carbon stores to future warming D. V. Khvorostyanov, 1,2 P. Ciais, 1 G. Krinner, 3 and
More informationEstimates of the Arctic Methane Budget. Charles Miller Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Estimates of the Charles Miller Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
More informationCarbon cycle and climate change, a tale of increasing emissions and uncertain sinks
Carbon cycle and climate change, a tale of increasing emissions and uncertain sinks Philippe Peylin On behalf of Chapter-6 Philippe Ciais and Chris Sabine Govindasamy Bala (India), Laurent Bopp (France),
More informationPERMAFROST MELTING AND CLIMATE CHANGE
CAPTURE PERMAFROST MELTING AND CLIMATE CHANGE CHRISTINA BIASI et al. Department of Environmental and Biological Science UNIVERSITY OF EASTERN FINLAND ARKTIKO2017 9.-10.5.2017 Oulu, Finland Estimated 1035±150
More informationGlobal. Carbon Trends. Pep Canadell Global Carbon Project CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Canberra, Australia
Global Carbon Trends Pep Canadell Global Carbon Project CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Canberra, Australia Outline 1. Recent Trends 2. Perturbation Budget 3. Sink Efficiency 4. Attribution 5. Processes
More informationState of the global climate 2012 with reference to the past 20 years
State of the global climate 2012 with reference to the past 20 years 2012 Further developed from the past 20 year UNEP report Keeping Track of Our Changing Environment From Rio to Rio+20 (1992-2012) UNEP
More informationHighlights of CO 2 Science Jorge Sarmiento
Highlights of CO 2 Science Jorge Sarmiento I. Carbon budget update for 2000-2006 Sources: (1) Emissions from fossil fuel burning & cement production have surged (2) Estimates of land use change source
More informationThe Changing Effects of Arctic Terrestrial. University of Alaska Fairbanks
The Changing Effects of Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems on the Climate System Eugénie Euskirchen Eugénie Euskirchen University of Alaska Fairbanks The Terrestrial Arctic Grey Area = Tundra Green Area = Permafrost
More informationPermafrost-climate feedbacks in CESM/CLM
Permafrost-climate feedbacks in CESM/CLM David Lawrence Andrew Slater 2, Sean Swenson 1, Charlie Koven 3, Bill Riley 3, Zack Subin 3, Hanna Lee 1 and the CESM LMWG 1 NCAR Earth System Lab, Boulder, CO
More informationSupporting Information
Supporting Information Koven et al. 10.1073/pnas.1103910108 SI Text Model and Experimental Setup. The vertical discretization of soil temperature and soil carbon in this version of ORCHIDEE uses a 32-layer
More informationWhen is the Permafrost Carbon Tipping Point?
When is the Permafrost Carbon Tipping Point? Kevin Schaefer1, Tingjun Zhang1, Lori Bruhwiler2, Andrew P. Barrett1, Zhuxiao Li1 1National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado 2NOAA Earth System
More informationPast, current and projected changes of global GHG emissions and concentrations
Past, current and projected changes of global GHG emissions and concentrations Corinne Le Quéré, University of East Anglia lead author, WGI Chapter 6 Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude Change in greenhouse
More information1: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology 2: National Institute for Environmental Studies. Hajima et al. 2014, J.
Decomposition of CO2 fertilization effect into contributions by land ecosystem processes: comparison among CMIP5 Earth system models Kaoru Tachiiri 1 Tomohiro Hajima 1 Akihiko Ito 1,2 Michio Kawamiya 1
More informationEARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH PARTNERSHIP
EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH PARTNERSHIP Contents Earth System Research a new approach in the Earth Sciences... 3 Core scientific questions of Earth system research... 7 Implementation strategies... 8 Observations
More informationCauses of past climate change and projections of future changes in climate. Peter Stott Met Office Hadley Centre, UK
Causes of past climate change and projections of future changes in climate Peter Stott Met Office Hadley Centre, UK Overview 1.The causes of observed climate change 2.Global and regional climate projections
More informationThe Global Carbon Cycle
The Global Carbon Cycle Laurent Bopp LSCE, Paris Introduction CO2 is an important greenhouse gas Contribution to Natural Greenhouse Effect Contribution to Anthropogenic Effect 1 From NASA Website 2 Introduction
More informationMajor Feedbacks originating from Northern Eurasia that are of global change concern
Major Feedbacks originating from Northern Eurasia that are of global change concern Guy P. Brasseur National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO Regions of Strong Influences on the Global Earth
More informationNext-Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE Arctic)
Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments (NGEE Arctic) Stan D. Wullschleger Environmental Sciences Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory Subsurface Biogeochemical Research PI Meeting April 28, 2011 High-Resolution
More informationInfluence of El Nino on atmospheric CO 2 : Findings from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2
IWGGMS-12 June 8, 2016 Kyoto Influence of El Nino on atmospheric CO 2 : Findings from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 Abhishek Chatterjee 1, M. Gierach 2, B. Stephens 3, A. Sutton 4, and D. Schimel 2
More informationContinental Carbon Budget: bottom-up approach and synthesis
Continental Carbon Budget: bottom-up approach and synthesis Michiel van der Molen, Han Dolman, Ko van Huissteden, Richard de Jeu, Guido van der Werf, Wouter Peters VU-Amsterdam (NL) TCOS-Siberia partners:
More informationIPCC 5 th Assessment Report
The WGI Contribution to the IPCC 5 th Assessment Report Thomas Stocker & Qin Dahe 259 Authors from 39 Countries WGI Technical Support Unit Team Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Altitude Key SPM Messages 19 Headlines
More informationClimate change in the Arctic region
Photo credit: NASA Climate change in the Arctic region Stefan Fronzek Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE) Outline Introduction Climate change in the Arctic Impacts on nature Responses: mitigation + mitigation
More informationIPCC-AR5 Chapter 6: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles
IPCC-AR5 Chapter 6: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles CO2, CH4 and N2O are the biggest GHGs. Uncertainty in black carbon. (CFCs) They all have important biogeochemical cycles, which complicates things.
More informationNew findings from CMIP5 Long term climate change projection using the Earth Simulator
New findings from CMIP5 Long term climate change projection using the Earth Simulator H. Kondo Japan Agency for Marine Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC, Japan) (MEXT) Climate change projection using
More informationCarbon Concentration and Carbon Climate Feedbacks in CMIP5 Earth System Models
VOLUME 26 J O U R N A L O F C L I M A T E 1 AUGUST 2013 Carbon Concentration and Carbon Climate Feedbacks in CMIP5 Earth System Models VIVEK K. ARORA, a GEORGE J. BOER, a PIERRE FRIEDLINGSTEIN, b MICHAEL
More informationThe CO 2 budget: methods for estimating CO 2 fluxes from atmospheric observations. Jan Winderlich PhD student
The CO 2 budget: methods for estimating CO 2 fluxes from atmospheric observations 1 Dr. Christoph Gerbig Research Scientist Jan Winderlich PhD student Dr. Rona Thompson Post-doctoral researcher 2 How do
More informationClimate system dynamics and modelling
Climate system dynamics and modelling Hugues Goosse Chapter 6 Future climate changes Outline Methods used to estimate future climate changes. Description of the main results at different timescales. Interpretation
More informationPeatland Ecosystem and Global Change
Peatland Ecosystem and Global Change LENTOKUVA VALLAS OY Jukka Laine Finnish Forest Research Institute Parkano Research Unit Extent and importance Peatlands cover an estimated area of 400 million ha (
More informationDr David Karoly School of Meteorology
Global warming: Is it real? Does it matter for a chemical engineer? Dr David Karoly School of Meteorology Email: dkaroly@ou.edu Recent global warming quotes Senator James Inhofe (R, Oklahoma), Chair, Senate
More informationChapter outline. introduction. Reference. Chapter 6: Climate Change Projections EST 5103 Climate Change Science
Chapter 6: Climate Change Projections EST 5103 Climate Change Science Rezaul Karim Environmental Science & Technology Jessore University of Science & Technology Chapter outline Future Forcing and Scenarios,
More informationSummary for Policymakers Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis
Summary for Policymakers Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis Robert Sausen DLR-Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Oberpfaffenhofen Guidance Notes for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fourth Assessment
More informationBiosphere feedbacks and climate change
Grantham Institute Briefing paper No 12 June 2015 PROFESSOR IAIN COLIN PRENTICE, SIÂN WILLIAMS AND PROFESSOR PIERRE FRIEDLINGSTEIN Executive summary POLICY ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE IS INFORMED BY CLIMATE
More informationIntroduction. Introduction. Introduction. Outline Last IPCC report : 2001 Last IPCC report :
Introduction Greenhouse Gases & Climate Change Laurent Bopp LSCE, Paris When did the story start? ¾1827 Fourier hypothesizes greenhouse effect ¾1860 Tyndal identifies CO2 and water vapor as heat trapping
More informationAtmospheric methane concentrations and the link to warming arctic permafrost
Atmospheric methane concentrations and the link to warming arctic permafrost Northern Manitoba, Natural Resources Canada Morgan Farley-Chrust April 8, 2010 U of U Atmospheric Science Outline Why is Methane
More informationGHG-CCI. 4 th CCI Co-location Meeting 4-6 Feb 2014, ESA ESRIN. CCI Integration Meeting, ECMWF, March 2011
GHG-CCI 4 th CCI Co-location Meeting 4-6 Feb 2014, ESA ESRIN CCI Integration Meeting, ECMWF, 14-16 March 2011 Phase 1 results: Climate Research Perspective Michael Buchwitz Institute of Environmental Physics
More informationEnergy, Greenhouse Gases and the Carbon Cycle
Energy, Greenhouse Gases and the Carbon Cycle David Allen Gertz Regents Professor in Chemical Engineering, and Director, Center for Energy and Environmental Resources Concepts for today Greenhouse Effect
More informationProcesses. 1Storage 1.1 Processes 1.2 Current estimates 2 Carbon release from permafrost 3 Environmental impacts 4 References 5 External links
1 of 5 1/4/2017 1:08 PM From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia The Permafrost Carbon Cycle is a sub-cycle of the larger global carbon cycle. Permafrost is defined as subsurface material that remains below
More informationGlobal Climate Change
Global Climate Change Greenhouse Gases and Earth s Energy Balance 400 380 CO 2 in air 360 340 320 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Global Climate Change 1 / 30 Outline of Topics 1 The Natural Earth System
More informationThe IPCC Working Group I Assessment of Physical Climate Change
The IPCC Working Group I Assessment of Physical Climate Change Martin Manning Director, IPCC Working Group I Support Unit 1. Observed climate change 2. Drivers of climate change 3. Attribution of cause
More informationEvidence and implications of anthropogenic climate change
Evidence and implications of anthropogenic climate change Earth s Climate has always been changing 1) Is climate changing now? Global Warming? Sea level rising IPCC 2007 Fig. 5.13 (p. 410) Recontructed
More informationPeatlands: Methane vs. CO 2 By Frolking, Roulet, Fuglestvedt
Peatlands: Methane vs. CO 2 By Frolking, Roulet, Fuglestvedt February 15, 2011 Math Climate Seminar MCRN Math and Climate Research Network Samantha Oestreicher University of Minnesota Contents What is
More informationThe next 2 weeks. Reading: IPCC (2007), Chap 7 (sections 7.4 and 7.5)
PCC 588 Jan 15 The next 2 weeks Th. Jan 15: non-co 2 greenhouse gases CH 4 and N 2 O Tu. Jan 20: non-co 2 greenhouse gases: ozone, halocarbons Th. Jan 22: Aerosols and Climate Tu. Jan 27: Paper discussion
More informationBiogeochemical Cycles and Climate Change
White Paper on WCRP Grand Challenge Draft, February 29, 2016 Biogeochemical Cycles and Climate Change Co- chairs * : Tatiana Ilyina 1 and Pierre Friedlingstein 2 Processes governing natural biogeochemical
More informationGlobal warming. Human (mainly industrial-era) activity changing the global climate now and over the next several centuries
Global warming Human (mainly industrial-era) activity changing the global climate now and over the next several centuries 1. Burning fossil fuels (primarily) 2. Land use changes (mostly local impacts)
More informationGreenhouse Effect. The Greenhouse Effect
Greenhouse Effect The Greenhouse Effect Greenhouse gases let short-wavelength radiation come into the Earth s atmosphere from the sun. However, they absorb and re-radiate Earth s long-wavelength radiation
More informationClimate change: recent changes in sea level and the ocean
Climate change: recent changes in sea level and the ocean Prof. Ric Williams, Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences 1. Is climate change happening? 2. Why care about the ocean? Prof. Phil Woodworth, Proudman
More informationThe Global Carbon Cycle
The Global Carbon Cycle In a nutshell We are mining fossil CO 2 and titrating into the oceans, (buffered by acid-base chemistry) Much of the fossil CO 2 will remain in the atmosphere for thousands of years
More informationHow strong is carbon cycle-climate feedback under global warming?
How strong is carbon cycle-climate feedback under global warming? Haifeng Qian Advisor: Prof. Ning Zeng A scholarly Paper for the degree of Master of Science Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science
More informationRobust increase in effective climate sensitivity with transient warming
Robust increase in effective climate sensitivity with transient warming Kyle C Armour Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences Massachusetts Institute of Technology Ringberg 5 Courtesy of NASA s Earth
More informationThe Airborne Measurements of Methane Fluxes (AIRMETH) Arctic Campaign
The Airborne Measurements of Methane Fluxes (AIRMETH) Arctic Campaign Andrei Serafimovich*1, Stefan Metzger2,3,Jörg Hartmann4, Katrin Kohnert1, Sebastian Wieneke5, Torsten Sachs1 1 GFZ German Research
More informationMODELING CLIMATE CHANGE UNDER NO-POLICY AND POLICY EMISSIONS PATHWAYS
MODELING CLIMATE CHANGE UNDER NO-POLICY AND POLICY EMISSIONS PATHWAYS Tom Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 837, USA (wigley@ucar.edu) Presented at: OECD Workshop on the Benefits
More informationThe carbon and climate problem
The carbon and climate problem What is the evidence? What are the caveats? What are the long-term implications? Prof. Ric Williams www.liv.ac.uk/climate 1 1. What is the evidence? data/simple theory CO
More informationOpportunities for Earth System Research in the Max-Planck- Society. Markus Reichstein Department of Biogeochemical Integration
Opportunities for Earth System Research in the Max-Planck- Society Markus Reichstein Department of Biogeochemical Integration Mission and Guiding Principles»Insight must precede Application«Basic Research
More informationLeif Backman HENVI Seminar February 19, 2009
Methane Sources and Sinks Leif Backman HENVI Seminar February 19, 2009 Background Atmospheric methane Sources & Sinks Concentration variations & trends Objective & methods Objective & Goals Research plan
More informationAsian Greenhouse Gases Budgets
International workshop on Asian Greenhouse Gases Budgets Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad, India 27-29 September 2011 Pep Canadell*, Prabir Patra *CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Canberra,
More informationThe Fifth Assessment: A Discussion of the IPCC Working Group 1 AR5 Report
The Fifth Assessment: A Discussion of the IPCC Working Group 1 AR5 Report Prof. Chris E. Forest The Pennsylvania State University (ceforest@psu.edu) Lead Author - Chapter 9 - Evaluation of Climate Models!
More informationGlobal Warming Science Solar Radiation
SUN Ozone and Oxygen absorb 190-290 nm. Latent heat from the surface (evaporation/ condensation) Global Warming Science Solar Radiation Turbulent heat from the surface (convection) Some infrared radiation
More informationThe Role of Land-Cover Change in High Latitude Ecosystems: Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle
The Role of Land-Cover Change in High Latitude Ecosystems: Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle PI - A. David McGuire, University of Alaska Fairbanks Co-PIs Dave Verbyla, University of Alaska Fairbanks
More informationModeling terrestrial ecosystems: biosphere atmosphere interactions
Modeling terrestrial ecosystems: biosphere atmosphere interactions Gordon Bonan National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado, USA CLM Tutorial 2014 National Center for Atmospheric Research
More informationClimate Change, People, and the Carbon Cycle
Climate Change, People, and the Carbon Cycle An emerging challenge: Supporting Greenhouse Gas Management Strategies with Observations, Modeling, and Analysis Why this is an urgent issue The primary cause
More informationAgricultural practices that favour the increase of soil organic matter. Philippe Ciais and Pete Smith
Agricultural practices that favour the increase of soil organic matter Philippe Ciais and Pete Smith Outline Current soil C stocks distribution Vulnerability of soil C Land use change Agricultural practice
More informationReview for Carbon cycle, Hydrosphere and Space and Energy Types Test
Review for Carbon cycle, Hydrosphere and Space and Energy Types Test Cycles and Greenhouse effect 1. Which of the following statements about the Greenhouse effect is true? A) An increase in greenhouse
More informationCRESCENDO. Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments, knowledge, Dissemination and Outreach.
CRESCENDO Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments, knowledge, Dissemination and Outreach www.crescendoproject.eu Coordinator: Colin Jones: University of Leeds/NCAS Project start
More informationENSC425/625 Climate Change and Global Warming
ENSC425/625 Climate Change and Global Warming 1 Emission scenarios of greenhouse gases Projections of climate change Regional climate change (North America) Observed Changes and their Uncertainty 2 Figure
More informationLIFE Platform Meeting. 14th-15th May Climate change ecosystem services approach for adaptation and mitigation.
LIFE Platform Meeting 14th-15th May 2014 Climate change ecosystem services approach for adaptation and mitigation Norwich, England Ali Nadir Arslan (ali.nadir.arslan@fmi.fi) Climate Change Indicators and
More informationThe Carbon Cycle. Dr Emily Lines School of Geography, Queen Mary University of London
The Carbon Cycle Dr Emily Lines School of Geography, Queen Mary University of London e.lines@qmul.ac.uk Global carbon cycle Carbon stocks and annual carbon exchange fluxes: Prior to the Industrial Era
More informationNext 3 weeks. Last week of class (03/10+03/12): Student presentations. Papers due on Monday March 9.
Next 3 weeks Tu 2/24: Terrestrial CO 2 uptake (LJ) Th 2/26: Paper discussion (Solomon et al., Irreversible climate change due to CO 2 emissions, 2009, PNAS) Tu 3/3: Geoengineering (JS+LJ) Th 3/5: Geoengineering
More information45. Industrial ecology and integrated assessment: an integrated modeling approach for climate change
45. Industrial ecology and integrated assessment: an integrated modeling approach for climate change Michel G.J. den Elzen and Michiel Schaeffer This chapter describes the background and modeling approaches
More informationGreenhouse gas related climate feedbacks from arctic ecosystems
Greenhouse gas related climate feedbacks from arctic ecosystems Torben R. Christensen Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sweden & Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University,
More informationIGBP Update for NEESPI
IGBP Update for NEESPI NEESPI Focus Research Center for Biogeochemical Cycles Jena, Germany, 17 March 2008 Kevin Noone Executive Director International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme Outline A quick introduction
More informationPeter Cox Professor of Climate System Dynamics University of Exeter
Tipping Points in the Response of the Biosphere to Climate Change How can we predict the unpredictable? Peter Cox Professor of Climate System Dynamics University of Exeter Definitions of Tipping Point
More information1.1 The Greenhouse Effect
1.1 The Greenhouse Effect The Atmosphere s Role on the Greenhouse Effect Energy flows, expressed in W/m 2 with or without greenhouse gases (GHG) 342 17 342 17 235 235 235-19 C 67 168 +14 C Source: after
More informationWORLD CLIMATE RESEARCH PROGRAMME
WORLD CLIMATE RESEARCH PROGRAMME Guy P. Brasseur, Chair WCRP Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO, USA CLIMATE CHANGE REDUCING AND
More informationConcentrations of several of these greenhouse gases (CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O and CFCs) have increased dramatically in the last hundred years due to human
Global Warming 1.1 The facts: With no atmosphere surrounding the earth the surface temperature would be 17 o C. However, due to the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that absorb infrared radiation emitted
More informationKlimaänderung. Robert Sausen Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Oberpfaffenhofen
Klimaänderung Robert Sausen Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Oberpfaffenhofen Vorlesung WS 2017/18 LMU München 6. Kohlenstoff- und andere biogeochemische Kreisläufe
More informationClimate change, permafrost and water in the NWT. Steve Kokelj INAC
Climate change, permafrost and water in the NWT Steve Kokelj INAC Indian and Northern Affairs Canada Steve Kokelj Outline Permafrost and climate change Climate change impacts in the NWT Case study climate
More informationScientific Foundation of Climate Change. Human Responsibility for Climate Change
Scientific Foundation of Climate Change EOH 468 CSU Northridge Spring 2010 Peter Bellin, CIH, Ph.D. 1 Human Responsibility for Climate Change The IPCC finds that it is very likely that emissions of heat-trapping
More informationCO 2 Emissions Determined by HadGEM2-ES to be Compatible with the Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios and Their Extensions
VOLUME 26 J O U R N A L O F C L I M A T E 1 JULY 2013 CO 2 Emissions Determined by HadGEM2-ES to be Compatible with the Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios and Their Extensions SPENCER LIDDICOAT,
More information4 C global warming: regional patterns and timing
4 C global warming: regional patterns and timing Richard Betts, Mike Sanderson, Debbie Hemming, Mark New, Jason Lowe, Chris Jones 4 C+ conference, Oxford University, 25.9.09 IPCC SRES emissions scenarios
More informationKlimaänderung 6. Kohlenstoff- und andere biogeochemische Kreisläufe
Klimaänderung 6. Kohlenstoff- und andere biogeochemische Kreisläufe Robert Sausen Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre Oberpfaffenhofen Vorlesung WS 2018/19 LMU
More informationLinking and Comparing Models to Explore the Impacts of Ecosystem Change in Alaska and Northwest Canada
Linking and Comparing Models to Explore the Impacts of Ecosystem Change in Alaska and Northwest Canada Eugénie Euskirchen & the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) Team Project PIs Acknowledgements A. Breen,
More informationPeatland degradation fuels climate change
Peatland degradation fuels climate change Peatland degradation fuels climate change An unrecognised and alarming source of greenhouse gases November 2006. Government representatives from almost all countries
More informationAims of a European Monitoring Program of Greenhouse Gases
Aims of a European Monitoring Program of Greenhouse Gases It should provide, in particular for CO 2 but also for CH 4 and N 2 O etc. observations over a long time at highest possible precision and comparability
More informationBIOSPHERE-ATMOSPHERE INTERACTIONS. Timo Vesala University of Helsinki Department of Physics Division of Atmospheric Sciences
BIOSPHERE-ATMOSPHERE INTERACTIONS Timo Vesala University of Helsinki Department of Physics Division of Atmospheric Sciences Background: Grand Challenges Climate change Volcanoes Energy Global warming Epidemic
More informationstudent pretest preparing for graduation (Grades 11-12)
student pretest preparing for graduation (Grades 11-12) 1. Name three indicators of climate change in the Arctic. 2. List two things scientists think are causing climate change. 3. When permafrost and
More informationClimate Change and Energy
1/31 Climate Change and Energy David S. Gutzler Earth & Planetary Sciences Dept gutzler@unm.edu * Global warming over the past century * Attribution of observed climate change à why we blame fossil fuels
More informationTeaching Time: minutes
Lesson Summary Students will learn about the different climatic regions in Alaska and about the relationship between the physical characteristics of the land and the ways in which people adapted in the
More informationIntroducing alien ecosystem engineers to Round Island, Mauritius
Introducing alien ecosystem engineers to Round Island, Mauritius Species lost 2 giant tortoises Role dispersal of herbivore adapted seeds Surrogate species Aldabra Giant Tortoise Madagascar radiated tortoise
More informationChanges in the Arctic and their Climate Feedback Implications. Cherskiy region, NE Siberia
Changes in the Arctic and their Climate Feedback Implications Cherskiy region, NE Siberia Some of WHRC s work in the Arctic Remote sensing & field measurements documenting changes in Arctic vegetation
More informationFOLLOW: Green House on Twitter
Jan 31, 2012 Recommend 773 208 By Wendy Koch, USA TODAY Updated 1d 13h ago CAPTION By William Fernando Martinez, AP A new NASA study tries to lay to rest the skepticism about climate change, especially
More informationGlobal CO 2 and Climate Change
Global CO 2 and Climate Change A deeper look at the carbon dioxide cycle, greenhouse gases, and oceanic processes over the last 200 years OCN 623 Chemical Oceanography 17 April 2018 Reading: Libes, Chapter
More informationSupplementary Information for Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions.
Supplementary Information for Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions. C D Jones 1, P Ciais 2, S J Davis 3, P Friedlingstein 4, T Gasser 5,2, G P Peters 6, J Rogelj 7,8, D P van Vuuren
More informationWhat does IPCC AR5 say? IPCC as a radical inside the closet
What does IPCC AR5 say? IPCC as a radical inside the closet What does IPCC AR5 say? Plan: * What is IPCC? * The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) - WR1: The physical basis - WR2: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability
More informationClimate Uncertainty and Feedbacks
Climate Uncertainty and Feedbacks Exploring the impact on climate policy scenarios 214-11-17 IAMC 214 Maarten van den Berg, Andries Hof, Chris Jones, Detlef van Vuuren 1 Typical use of integrated assessment
More information(Manuscript received 31 July 2012, in final form 3 January 2013) ABSTRACT
4398 J O U R N A L O F C L I M A T E VOLUME 26 Twenty-First-Century Compatible CO 2 Emissions and Airborne Fraction Simulated by CMIP5 Earth System Models under Four Representative Concentration Pathways
More information