AFTER PARIS EMISSION REDUCTIONS, RISKS, OPPORTUNITIES FOR LOW INCOME AUSTRALIANS

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1 AFTER PARIS EMISSION REDUCTIONS, RISKS, OPPORTUNITIES FOR LOW INCOME AUSTRALIANS 25 May 2016

2 Contents 1. Climate risks 2. The Paris COP21 3. Issues and Opportunities

3 2015 and 2014: Record temperatures CF Hansen et al

4 We are at the tipping point My grandkids? My kids Me Source: Professor Lesley Hughes, modified by Professor Dave Griggs

5 Climate change: the poor will suffer most Drought and desertification Lower crop yields Typhoon and storm surge Loss of coral reefs Increase in extreme weather events and flooding Geopolitical instability 4

6 Australia: low income and disadvantaged particularly vulnerable Energy inefficient housing Health impacts of heatwaves Vulnerability to flood No insurance Rising energy costs Energy industry restructuring 5

7 The Paris COP21 6

8 Contents 1. Context 2. Paris COP21 3. Issues and opportunities

9 To avoid dangerous impacts above 2⁰C, we reduce net emissions to zero Global total CO 2 emissions SOURCE: Malte Meinshausen (

10 Federal Government 2030 target Department of Environment

11 Federal Government 2030 target Department of Environment

12 Recommended carbon budget for Australia Climate Change Authority adopted by Labor Climate Change Authority

13 Pathways to near-zero energy emissions by 2050 have been identified by teams in 15 countries representing over 70% of global emissions USA AUS Joint Lead: UK BRAZIL CAN Modelling: S KOR SA Coordinated globally UN SDSN CHI Consistent framework Global aggregation Knowledge sharing RUS MEX JAP INDO IND GER FRA Driven locally Country pathways Based on local potential Recognition of local context and constraints 12

14 COMMON TO ALL COUNTRIES This is achieved through four pillars of transformation 13

Our research shows that Australia can reach zero net emissions by 2050, while our economy continues to grow Our economy grows by 150% by 2050 Real GDP 400 350 300 250

15 Our research shows that Australia can reach zero net emissions by 2050, while our economy continues to grow Our economy grows by 150% by 2050 Real GDP Annual rate of change +2.4% Australia can reach zero net emissions by 2050 Emissions, MtCO2e

Today it can be hard to imagine how we might achieve this,

emerging from the great depression but by 1969.

less than in 1998 20 years ago very few people had an email

16 Today it can be hard to imagine how we might achieve this, but a lot can happen in 35 years In 1933 the world was still emerging from the great depression but by Today, solar panels cost 90% less than in 1980 and 50% less than in years ago very few people had an 7 years ago very few people had a smartphone 15

Energy use per household reduces 50% Commercial

Shift to gas for road freight and 50% biofuels for

17 Energy use per household reduces 50% Commercial energy use reduces 50% per square metre e.g. LEDs reduce energy up to 80% 70% improvement energy efficiency in cars and LCVs by Most cars electric or hybrid with some fuel cell. Shift to gas for road freight and 50% biofuels for aviation. Australian industry is able to more than double production by 2050 without using any additional energy. 16

18 17

19 Buildings Industry Transport 18

20 The structure of Australia s economy would not need to change significantly, with continued mining and manufacturing while services continue to grow Distribution of sectoral value added, % 1% 3% 2% 4% 4% 8% 7% 7% 9% 8% 10% 64% 72% 1% Residential Power Agriculture & Forestry Transport Energy and construction services Manufacturing Mining Commercial

21 The modelled Australian pathway results in net-zero carbon economy while GDP grows by more than 150% 20

22 2012 c/kwh 2012 c/kwh Energy efficiency improves household energy affordability 50 Retail electricity per kwh Average household electricity demand (before fuel switch) Average household electricity bills +40% Halves -30% Wholesale and Retail price retail electricity price, *, c/kwh c/kwh 20 Wholesale price Retail price Wholesale price Per capita income Share of electricity expenditure in household income +56% Halves * From: Pathways to Deep Decarbonisation in 2050: How Australia can prosper in a low carbon world: Technical Report 21

23 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION: John Thwaites Chair at ClimateWorks Australia 22

PATHWAYS TO DEEP DECARBONISATION IN 2050

PATHWAYS TO DEEP DECARBONISATION IN 2050 MODELLING LAND USE IN THE AUSTRALIAN 2050 CALCULATOR International Conference on 2050 Calculator Wei Sue, Senior Analyst 11 February 2015 ClimateWorks Australia