Energy Planning as an Instrument of Forecasting Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Policy Measures on Climate Change Mitigation

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1 23rd Ph.D. Workshop on International Climate Policy October 2011 MALTA Energy Planning as an Instrument of Forecasting Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Policy Measures on Climate Change Mitigation Irina Voitekhovitch PhD, Joint Institute of Nuclear and Power Research Sosny, Minsk, Belarus

2 Research Target Setting Climate Change Mitigation Ratification of UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol New (stricter!) commitments for Kyoto-2 Adaptation and mitigation targets Country strategy on GHG emission reduction Commitments on GHG reduction -8% for as against 1990 Belarus country with economy in transition Stable annual GDP growth 8-10% Replacement of gas (roughly 85% of energy balance) by peat, coal, mazut, nuclear Increasing electricity consumption Energy Security Economic growth

3 Research aims to 1. investigate the existing energy models to analyze energy systems 2. develop a model of the fuel and energy complex of Belarus to 3. forecast greenhouse gas emissions in the medium and long term prospective (assess the environmental effects of any energy and climate strategy) 4. analyse the establishment of regional emission trading system to increase contribution in preventing climate change.

4 Models for analysis of energy systems AMIGA MAED MESAP E2M2s ENUSIM GTMax EFDA T IMES EFOM ENPEP ICARUS EERA LIEF MARKAL MESSAGE NEMS NEMS RETScreen LEAP MACRO WASP TIMES Energy PLAN Description: BALANCE gives the possibility to find the balance between demand on different forms of energy and available energy resources and technologies ENPEP BALANCE Advantages: price sensitivity, lag factor, premium multiplier, carbon tax modeling, CHP modeling, several types of fuel Special features: very user unfriendly

5 Fuel and Energy Complex (FEC) 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Structure of energy resources consumption, mln tce Natural Gas Oil-well gas LPG Refinery gas Communal fuel Mazut Coal Peat, lignin Firewood Other Petroleum coke OIL PROD TRANSPORT NG A RESIDENTIAL Mazut INDUSTRY AGRICULTURE Energy sector - conversion Nuclear Peat Coal Wind Exist Hydro Structure of heat energy production 100% 80% Structure of electricity production % FEC characteristics - key GHG emitter 64,4% (2008) - gas-coal, peat, mazut - accelerated pace of growth 60% 40% 20% 0% Combined Heat and Power Stations Boiler-houses % % % % Heat Power Station Hydro Wind FEC sub-sectors: - fuel - refinery - energy sector - communal and houses sector - agriculture - transport - industry Heat Recovery Stations

6 ENERGY SECTOR Total current capacity of energy system ca MW RESIDENTIAL INDUSTRY HEAТ AGRICULTURE TRANSPORT 1. Condensing PP 4000 MW ( Lukoml MW, Bereza MW, Minsk MW) 2. Combined CHP MW Big (3555 MW), Middle (350 MW), Mini (16 MW), Block-Stations (185 MW), Wind (2 MW), Hydro (12 MW) Boilers CHP Boilers CPP CHP Coal PS NuPS Coal Wind Hydro Imported electricity 3. Boilers: 1. MinEnergy 8500 MW 2. Big Boilers MW 3. Small Boilers gas 6400 MW 4. Small Boilers peat 3000 MW NG Mazut Wood&Peat Nuclear Future -?????

7 Considered scenarios Scenario 1 Construction of nuclear power plant (NPP Scenario) 1 NPP Block 1170 MW in NPP Block 1170 MW in 2019 Scenario 2 Construction of combined cycle plants (SGP Scenario) NPP will not be built 2000 MW gas fired SGP to be put into operation by 2030 Scenario 3 Intensive use of renewable energy sources (RES Scenario) NPP will not be built 1600 MW of SGP will be put into operation by MW wind power park construction by MW Hydro PP construction by 2025 Coal Power Plant 920 MW - operational in 2015 General assumptions Minsk CPP-5 (320 MW) additional SGP 400 MW in 2011 Lukoml (2400 MW) additional SGP 400 MW in 2014 Bereza (1030 MW) additional SGP 400 MW in 2015 Wind Power Plants 50 MW - by 2015 Hydro Power Plants 100 MW by 2015 Electricity consumption growth - 42,5 bln. kwh in 2015; 47,1 bln. kwh in 2020 and with continuation of current growth rate by 2030 (roughly 2% per year) Structure of electricity consumption will not be changed Renunciation of imported electricity starts from 2015

8 Prognosis of GHG emissions in FEC mln tco2eq NPP SGP RES

9 Prognosis of GHG emissions in Belarus NPP SGP RES

10 Enhancing Efforts to Reduce GHG Emissions Using financial mechanisms for GHG emission reduction regional trading scheme: Belarus - Law on Climate Protection Ukraine 2010 draft law "On regulation of emissions of greenhouse gases that establishes a market-based methods to reduce GHG emissions in the internal trading system Russia pilot technological platform Kazakhstan - intends to conclude bilateral agreements with other countries and international organizations (e.g. Chicago Climate Exchange) Best solution - voluntary trading scheme starting 2013, which contains sufficient financial and nonfinancial incentives for the companies to participate. For CIS conditions it would be wise to prepare and run the emission trading system in the pilot regions and / or sectors. These pilot initiatives should be considered as a polygon for testing approaches and training of professionals all over the country Future climate treaty regional schemes

11 Directions of further research Implementation of carbon tax and reaction of energy system Most efficient actions on GHG reduction Low carbon strategy including different measures in supply, conversion and demand side technologies Regional ET scheme price of CO2 reduced

12 Thank you for your attention!!!