TITLE KYOTO PROTOCOL OBJECTIVES IN CROATIA ENERGY PLANNING

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1 TITLE KYOTO PROTOCOL OBJECTIVES IN CROATIA ENERGY PLANNING Neven Duić 1 Franjo Juretić 2 Mladen Zeljko 3 Željko Bogdan 1 1 Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture, Zagreb, Croatia 2 Imperial College, London, UK 3 Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar, Zagreb, Croatia

2 BACKGROUND Article 3.1 of the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC The Parties included in Annex I shall, individually or jointly, ensure that their aggregate anthropogenic carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of the greenhouse gases listed in Annex A do not exceed their assigned amounts, calculated pursuant to their quantified emission limitation and reduction commitments inscribed in Annex B and in accordance with the provisions of this Article, with a view to reducing their overall emissions of such gases by at least 5 per cent below 1990 levels in the commitment period 2008 to 2012.

3 BACKGROUND United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change countries Kyoto Protocol, 1997: Reduction in GHG emissions in 38 countries 13 Economies in Transition Croatia - 5% reduction of GHG from 1990

4 OBJECTIVES showing particular case of an economy in transition without hot air showing that there is urgent need for a climate change national energy strategy that includes the KP commitments

5 CONTENTS Current energy picture of Croatia Business as usual scenario of gas and coal future Low carbon electricity generation scenario No fossil fuel electricity generation scenario Conclusions

6 CROATIA - ECONOMY IN TRANSITION GDP (% change) Nominal GDP (bn USD) solid gaseous Year Year PJ liquid Gg CO CO2 emission Kyoto 'target' Year Year

7 PRIMARY ENERGY Gas 29% Hydro 6% Electricity Coal 4% 3% Com. Renew. 5% Oil 53% Total primary energy supply Mtoe Per capita 1.6 toe Energy efficiency 2.8 USD/kgoe

8 FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION Electric Energy 19% Heat 10% Coal 2% Com. Renew. 6% Gaseous Fuels 17% Liquid Fuels 46% Total final energy consumption - 5 Mtoe PJ Low importance of coal

9 ELECTRICITY AND HEAT GENERATION Industrial PP 3% Industrial, heat 28% Hydro PP 28% Cogeneration, heat 15% Electricity generated TWh - 39 PJ Heat generated - 30 PJ Cogeneration, electricity 5% Thermal PP 21% Thermal Power Plants - 38 PJ of primary fuel

10 BUSINESS AS USUAL 600 PJ solid gaseous liquid Based on current National Energy Strategy year Modelled by ENPEP PP: 2100 MW CC, 850 MW coal, 333 MW HPP Extensive gasification of coastal regions

11 BUSINESS AS USUAL Gg CO Business as usual 5000 Kyoto 'target' Year Based on current National Energy Strategy Modelled by ENPEP Breaching the target in 2003 No hot air to sell

12 MINIMISED CO 2 IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION PJ solid gaseous liquid total, BAU Low cost CO2 minimisation only in electricity sector Modelled by ENPEP year PP: 200 MW CC, 3000 MW NPP, 333 MW HPP Else as in BAU

13 MINIMISED CO 2 IN ELECTRICITY GENERATION Gg CO Business as usual Minimized CO2 in EES No new fossil PP Shutting down old PP Kyoto 'target' Breaching the target again in year Lower overshooting Planning electricity generation capacity will not satisfy the KP commitment Shutting down old PP prematurely would satisfy the KP commitment only until 2015

14 FINANCIAL REPERCUSSIONS 400 mil. USD USD/t C 40 USD/t C 15 USD/t C Funds that should be available for domestic measures year Market price of certificates estimated at USD/Mg C, with maximum of the average global mitigation price of 90 USD/Mg C (based on OECD study that concluded that in case of emission trading the price of CO 2 reduction is 90 USD/Mg C)

15 National Climate Change Strategy necessary Low cost domestic measures: space heating, industrial energy efficiency, electricity generation, solar thermal energy (instead of gasification) The funds for future buying of certificates could be used for domestic measures

16 Croatia will have no hot air to sell KP commitments cannot be achieved only through measures in electricity generation sector A urgent need for a National Climate Change Strategy