August The London climate change adaptation strategy Summary draft report

Transcription

1 August 2008 The London climate change adaptation strategy Summary draft report

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3 August 2008 The London Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Summary draft report

4 Greater London Authority August 2008 Published by Greater London Authority City Hall The Queen s Walk More London London SE1 2AA enquiries minicom ISBN Photographs: front cover and pages 7, 13, 21, 23 and 28 Alamy Images. Pages 2 and 16 Shutterstock. Page 8 visitlondon/britainonview. Pages 9, 13 and 25 Getty Images. Page 14 Thames Water. Page 18 Jim Smith. Page 24 Belinda Lawley. Page 26 Tubelines. Page 31 Andrew Tucker. Copies of this report are available from Printed on 9Lives 80 paper: 80 per cent recovered fibre and 20 per cent virgin TCF fibre sourced from sustainable forests; FSC and NAPM certified.

5 Foreword 3 Our climate is changing. This strategy starts the process of planning in detail for how our great city must adapt to these changes. If we don t make the necessary changes then many Londoners quality of life will gradually deteriorate, we may fail to capitalise on some of the benefits that the changing climate will bring and we will be poorly prepared for the more extreme and damaging weather that science says we must expect in future. Even if all global greenhouse gas emissions could be stopped today, the immense inertia in Earth s climate systems means that changes to our climate for the rest of this century are unavoidable. Preparing for these inevitable changes is not an alternative to reducing our greenhouse gas emissions, but a parallel and complementary action. International efforts to reduce global emissions are not so far making the drastic reductions required, so we may be heading for further and potentially more profound changes to our climate. For London, scientists currently forecast warmer, wetter winters and hotter drier summers, coupled with an increase in the frequency of extreme weather and rising sea levels. This means London will face increasing risk of flooding, drought and heatwaves. Urban areas are inherently vulnerable to the impact of climate change the density of people and assets means that there is automatically more at stake. London s position astride a tidal river, in a region of the UK where relatively little rainfall has to be shared by more people and where London s microclimate can aggravate the impact of heatwaves, intensifies these challenges. This strategy is one of the first comprehensive climate change adaptation strategies produced by any major city worldwide. As a pre eminent world city London is also exposed to the impact of climate change beyond its boundaries. But at the same time local, national and international demand for the knowledge and skills required to prepare for these changes means that London is well placed to help the world adapt. There is a clear economic opportunity to capitalise on this leading position.

6 4 London Climate Change Adaptation Strategy I am committed to making London a world leader in tackling climate change. Just as we have shown the way by committing to reduce our carbon emission by 60 per cent by 2025, I am prepared to take the steps that London needs to adapt to the changing climate. This draft strategy sets out the key actions I believe London should take to prepare for the impacts of climate change. Managing the uncertainties that come with predicting the future takes a careful risk-based approach. It is heartening that many of the practical steps that will help us adapt our city, such as planting trees, are also good for Londoners day-to-day quality of life. I want to thank the many organisations and individuals who have already contributed to developing this strategy. I look forward to receiving your comments on whether the actions we propose are the correct ones. Climate change will affect many different aspects of our lives. We all need to work together to deliver the necessary changes. Boris Johnson Mayor of London

7 Introduction 5 Some climate change is now inevitable and unless urgent, concerted global action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, further more dramatic changes to our climate may become unavoidable. This means that preparing for changes to our climate is not an alternative strategy to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but a parallel and complementary one. Why adapt? We need to adapt to extreme weather and climate change for four reasons: We are not very well adapted to our current climate the impacts from the heatwave of summer 2003 and the floods of summer 2007 highlight how vulnerable we are to extreme weather. Climate change will mean that London will experience an increasing risk of floods, droughts and uncomfortably hot weather. Without action to manage these risks, the impacts from the changing climate will increasingly affect the prosperity of the city and the quality of life for all Londoners, but especially the most vulnerable in society. Carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for about 100 years. We are therefore still subject to the emissions of the past, and yet to experience the changes that will be brought about by the emissions of today and future emissions. As highlighted by the Stern Review and demonstrated by Hurricane Katrina, actions taken before an impact are more effective and less costly than retrospective actions. What is climate change adaptation? Adaptation is the process of preparing for extreme weather and changes to our climate. Because climate change forecasts are only projections of the future and are therefore uncertain, it is important to take a risk-based approach to identifying and implementing any solutions. Adaptation is also a dynamic process measures that protect us today may not be as effective in the future, so need to be regularly reviewed. What is the aim of the strategy? The aim of the strategy is to help London and Londoners prepare for the impacts of climate change and extreme weather. The strategy provides a framework that: identifies the main climate impacts likely to affect London establishes the current risk baseline to understand who and what is at risk today analyses how climate change will change the risk of flooding, drought and heatwaves through the century

8 6 London Climate Change Adaptation Strategy uses this analysis to inform a risk-based prioritisation of actions to manage the impact and to capitalise on any benefits. The strategy proposes a series of risk management actions, starting with the most proactive measures and then becoming increasingly reactive: Prevent - action taken to reduce probability of an impact or change occurring, for example raising flood defences. Prepare - action taken to better understand the climate risk or opportunity, to reduce vulnerability and improve resilience, for example raising public awareness. Respond - action taken in response to an event to limit the consequences of the event, for example restricting non-essential water uses during a drought. Recover - action taken after an event to enable a rapid and costeffective return to a normal, or more sustainable state, for example enhancing the flood resilience of a property when undertaking flood damage repairs. In practice, not all risks are preventable and therefore action to reduce the probability of a change or event must be accompanied by action lower down in the series. For example, raising flood defences to reduce the probability of a flood should always be accompanied by developing an emergency plan should the flood defences fail. The Mayor has only limited direct control over the action necessary to prepare London for the projected impact of climate change. Adapting London to the changing climate will require national, regional and local government, government agencies, the private sector and London s communities to all work together. Risk and Risk Management Risk can be defined as combination of probability (the chance of a change, or event occurring), consequence (who and what is affected by the change or event) and vulnerability (how exposed are the people or assets to the change or event, how sensitive are they to its impacts, how much time do they have to react, and what is their capacity to react). Good risk management must therefore assess each of these components for a given risk (for example flooding) and then decide how to manage the risk by acting to reduce the probability, consequence or vulnerability.

9 7 Layout of this summary report This summary report is divided into five parts: Section 1 summarises the changes to our climate projected for this century. Sections 2-4 cover the key impacts predicted for London, together with the measures proposed to manage these risks. Page 20 summarises the main actions the Mayor believes are priorities for London. Sections 5-8 summarise how climate change will affect the crosscutting issues of health, environment, economy and infrastructure. Section 9 summarises the next steps to be taken. Flooded underpass, Kingston Upon Thames 2007.

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11 1 London s future climate 9 The average climate for the southeast of England is projected to become increasingly warm and wet in winter, and hot and dry in summer throughout the century. This trend will be accompanied by an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, tidal surges, windstorms and heavy rainfall events. The changes to the average climate will mean that in the long term what is considered extreme weather today may become the average climate of tomorrow, with a new and greater intensity defining extreme weather. In 2002, the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) published the climate change scenarios for the UK. In November 2008 UKCIP will publish the next generation of scenarios. It is anticipated that the updated scenarios will not in general diverge from the 2002 scenarios. The strategy will be updated using the 2008 projections. These projections take into account a weakening of the Gulf Stream that keeps the UK warmer in winter than would otherwise be the case. It is also important to remember that the term climate is used to describe the average weather and its variability over a long period of time 30 years is usually considered appropriate. There will therefore be years when summers are wetter and winters colder than the projected trend. This does not mean that the climate projections are wrong but it underlines the natural variability of the climate.

12 10 Key projections for the south-east of England Summers may be up to 3.5ºC warmer by the middle of the century and up to 5ºC warmer by the end of the century. The average hottest days in the year may reach 35ºC by the middle of the century and 40ºC by the end of the century. Winters may be up to 2ºC warmer by the middle of the century and up to 3.5ºC warmer by the end of the century. Winter rainfall may increase by up to 30 per cent by the end of the century and summer rainfall decrease by up to 50 per cent. Winter storms and heavier winter rainfall will become more frequent. Snowfall will become increasingly rare, with potentially 70 per cent less snowfall by the end of the century. Sea levels may rise by nearly a metre by the end of the century, and the height and frequency of tidal surges will also increase. Change in average summer temperature Change in average winter temperature Percentage change in summer precipitation Percentage change in winter precipitation

13 2 Flooding 11 London is prone to flooding from five sources: the sea (tidal flooding) the Thames and tributaries of the Thames (fluvial flooding) heavy rainfall overcoming the drainage system (surface water flooding) the sewers rising groundwater. It is possible for flooding from a combination of these sources to occur simultaneously. This strategy considers the increasing risk of tidal, fluvial and surface water flooding due to climate change. Sewer and groundwater flooding are covered in the Mayor s Water Strategy the flood defence walls upstream of the barrier would need to be two metres higher. The standards of protection on the non-tidal Thames and the tributaries of the Thames are much lower and vary considerably. Our understanding of surface water flood risk is very limited, but the fact that London occasionally experiences surface water floods during heavy rainfall highlights the urgency of needing to address this risk. Flood risk in London is already significant because of the extensive population and assets on the floodplains. An analysis of who and what is at risk shows that: Nearly 15 per cent of London lies at risk of tidal and fluvial flooding, and is protected by an integrated system of flood walls, barriers and gates. The map below shows the area of London at flood risk if there were no defences (it is standard to show the area that would be flooded without the presence of defences, as this highlights the people and assets protected by those defences). The current situation The map above highlights how well we are protected from tidal flooding. The tidal Thames has some of the highest standards of protection in the world. Without the Thames Barrier The standard of protection provided by London s flood defences, and hence the likelihood of being flooded, can be mapped for tidal and fluvial flood risk. This probability is usually expressed as a return period. The return period is how often a flood of a given magnitude would be expected to occur over a long period of time. For example 1 in 100 means that statistically a flood of that severity would occur, on average, only once every 100 years.

14 12 London Climate Change Adaptation Strategy the poorest in the city are more likely to live at tidal flood risk there is a low level of public awareness of flood risk, of what to do in case of a flood and the capacity to do it a significant proportion of London s critical infrastructure is at risk of flooding, including emergency services and utilities that London would be reliant upon in case of a flood. Who and what is at tidal and fluvial flood risk? 1,250,000 people 481,180 properties 441 schools bus depots hospitals 1 airport 1 prison Underground/DLR stations railway stations police stations fire stations The future Flood risk will increase due to climate change, but also due to development in areas at flood risk, the ageing flood defence infrastructure and the fact that much of our drainage network was designed to cope with less intense rainfall. Sea levels are projected to rise by one metre by the end of the century, though more unlikely scenarios of up to 4.2 metres of sea level rise have been considered. In all but the most extreme scenarios, the current Thames Barrier and tidal defences will continue to protect London for decades to come and it is unlikely that a new barrier will be required before the end of the century. Peak river levels in the non-tidal Thames are projected to rise by up to 20 per cent by In west London there is less opportunity to raise the height of the flood defences due to existing development, so using green spaces adjacent to the Thames to store floodwater may be necessary. Some existing riverside properties may have to be resilient to flood damage. Peak river levels in the tributaries of the Thames are projected to rise by 30 per cent by The combination of low standards of protection, short warning times and

15 13 relatively few management options means that managing flood risk on the tributaries is a priority. Heavier and more seasonal rainfall will increase surface water flood risk. The low permeability of London s urban landscape, new development pressures and the poor maintenance of parts of the drainage network magnify this risk. The response to the challenge London is currently well protected by existing tidal defences from a catastrophic flood from the North Sea, but faces a significantly high risk of fluvial and surface water flooding. The Mayor proposes that London should prepare for increasing flood risk by: improving the flood risk management of London s rivers increasing the emergency flood storage capacity of London s rivers improving the ability of urban areas to absorb and store rainfall identifying critical infrastructure at risk of flooding raising public awareness and capacity to act to flooding and flood risk. Page 20 of this document sets out the actions the Mayor believes are a priority to manage flood risk in London. Photo above: Knightsbridge, London Below: Flooded street in Ecclesfield, Sheffield 2007.

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17 3 Drought 15 Drought is caused by a lack of sufficient rainfall. Droughts can be short and sharp, as experienced in the hot summer of 2003, or prolonged, such as the two dry winters of and However, the way in which water is managed can determine how a drought impacts on the environment and us. The current situation Water supply Eighty per cent of London s water comes from the Thames and the River Lee. It is pumped from these rivers when river levels are high and stored in reservoirs around London. The remaining 20 per cent comes from the aquifer underneath London. Both the rivers and the aquifer are fed by rainfall, mostly in winter. An annual average of 690mm of rain falls in the Thames catchment. Two-thirds of this is lost through evaporation. More than half of the Water availability per person Region / country Water availability - m3/person/yr Israel Thames region Morocco England and Wales 1,334.1 Spain 2,563.5 Greece 5,206.5 remaining volume is then abstracted for our use, leaving less than 15 per cent of the original rainfall for wildlife. The large population living in the south-east of England, combined with the relatively low rainfall means that the Thames region actually has less water per person than many hotter, drier countries such as Morocco (see box). Water demand Each Londoner consumes an average of 168 litres per day, compared to the national average of 150 litres per person per day. This increased consumption is primarily linked to affluence (more water consuming devices per home) and lower occupancy rates (smaller household units, such as flats, each with water consuming devices). In addition, only one in five households has a water meter, so currently only 20 per cent of Londoners have an incentive to save water. Over 600 million litres of treated water per day, nearly a quarter of all the water distributed in the mains network, is lost in leakage. This is because nearly a third of the pipes that make up the distribution network are more than 150 years old. London clay is corrosive and weakens pipes that are then subjected to ground instability, as London s clay soils shrink and Photo left: Victorian mains replacement, London.

18 16 London Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Photo above: Hyde Park, London. swell as the soil moisture content changes seasonally. Balancing supply and demand To avoid running out of water, or abstracting more water than the environment can sustainably provide, it is important to balance the supply and demand for water. Water companies are required to provide plans stating how they will balance their supply and public demand for water. The future Climate change will affect both the supply and demand for water because: Wetter winters will mean that a greater proportion of the rain runs off into the rivers, rather than being absorbed into the ground where it can contribute to future years supplies. Hotter summers and more cloudfree days will increase the amount of water lost to evaporation. Greater seasonal variation in rainfall will cause soil moisture levels to fluctuate more dramatically, increasing the strain on London s ageing water distribution network. However, warmer winters may reduce the number of winter pipe bursts due to frozen pipes and frozen soil. Hotter, drier summers will see demand for water increase from people and wildlife, while warmer winters may mean a longer growing season, increasing demand from plants and so reducing the winter recharge period for groundwaters. The response to the challenge It is not possible to prevent a drought, but by reducing our demand for water, it is possible to increase the length of time it takes before drought measures are required. Using less water also reduces carbon emissions and saves money as it requires considerable energy to treat, pump and heat water. The Mayor proposes that London should prepare for the increasing risk of drought through applying the following hierarchy of measures to secure a more sustainable supply and demand balance for water: Lose less reduce the loss of water through better leakage management. Use less improve the efficiency of water use in residential and commercial development (both new and existing). Reclaim more use reclaimed water for non-potable uses (rainwater harvesting and grey water recycling). Develop new resources look at new resource options that have the least environmental impact. Page 20 of this document sets out the actions the Mayor believes are a priority to manage the risk of drought in London.

19 4 Overheating 17 Overheating is a term used in the strategy to describe when temperatures rise to a point where they affect the health and comfort of Londoners. Prolonged high temperatures can cause: an increase in heat-related discomfort, illness and death an increase in demand for cooling, possibly leading to power blackouts an increased demand for limited water resources, increasing the risk of drought damage to temperature-sensitive infrastructure (such as electrical equipment and transport networks). The current situation London s summers are still comparatively mild enough for health impacts due to high temperatures to be limited to rare, extremely hot weather events, such as heatwaves. Summers have been getting progressively hotter in London. Over the period of London s average summer temperatures have become progressively warmer and the temperatures of the hottest days have been rising even more quickly. in London died as a result of the high temperatures. The impact of the 2003 heatwave was greater in London than in other regions, despite the fact that London did not experience the highest temperatures. The urban heat island effect (see box) is thought to have been a significant factor in the number of deaths during the 2003 heatwave. Urban heat island effect Urban areas generate their own microclimate, known as the urban heat island. This refers to the warmer temperatures experienced in cities compared with the rural areas around them. The urban heat island is caused by the ability of urban materials that make up the buildings, roads and pavements to absorb heat from the sun, which is then radiated at night, preventing the city from cooling off as quickly as the rural areas. During hot weather this can make the centre of London up to 10ºC hotter at night than the countryside. The elevated night time temperatures mean that people do not benefit from cool evenings and vulnerable people cannot recover from the heat of the previous day sufficiently to be prepared for the next day s heat. The August 2003 heatwave is infamous for the number of people that died across Europe. It is less appreciated that at least 600 people

20 18 London Climate Change Adaptation Strategy The future Summer temperatures in London will increase because of climate change and intensification of the urban heat island effect. Climate change is projected to increase average summer temperatures by up to 3.5ºC by the middle of the century, when two out of three summers will be as hot as the 2003 heatwave. The urban heat island effect will intensify as a result of the following: More cloud-free days more hours of sunshine will increase the number of hours that an intense urban heat island (>4ºC) is experienced. Computer modelling suggest there may be a 18 per cent increase in the number of hours an intense urban heat island is experienced by the end of the century. Research in Manchester has shown that increasing green space cover by ten per cent in high-density developed areas could keep surface temperatures in the city by the end of the century at or below those experienced from 1961 to The photo below shows tree-lined Kingsway, London.

21 19 Increasing density of development higher density development will increase the intensity of the urban heat island effect locally Increasing heat from man-made sources rising temperatures will increase the demand for airconditioning. The waste heat from air-conditioning adds to the heat radiating from the city s surfaces and creates a cyclical problem of increasing demand for cooling and reducing efficiency of airconditioning. If the use of airconditioning became widespread in London, it could become a significant source of additional heat. Drier summers vegetation reduces the urban heat island effect through reflecting more of the solar radiation than urban materials, absorbing energy through photosynthesis and providing cooling through evapo transpiration. Drier summers will reduce the evaporative cooling benefit of vegetation, especially from grassy areas such as parks as they dry out. The response to the challenge It is not possible to prevent a heatwave, but it is possible to limit our exposure to high temperatures by reducing how much the urban landscape intensifies the heatwave, and to reduce our vulnerability to high temperature through protecting vulnerable people and assets. The Mayor proposes that London should prepare for increasing risk of overheating through five interrelated approaches: Managing London s urban heat island through greening the city and new buildings using street trees, green roofs, and new green spaces. Designing new buildings and adapting existing ones and infrastructure to minimise the need for cooling. Ensuring that where cooling is still required, low-carbon, energy-efficient methods are used. Helping Londoners adapt their behaviour and lifestyles to higher temperatures. Ensuring that recommendations in the heatwave plan are implemented in London. An infra-red image of London taken by the ASTER satellite during the 2006 heatwave, showing London s surface warmer than the surrounding rural areas.

22 20 Adaptation summary table RISK Flood Drought Heatwave Probability Consequence Vulnerability Risk Management Strategy Proposed priority actions Increasing as sea levels rise, the height and frequency of tidal surges increases and winter rainfall and heavy rainfall events also increase. Reduced permeability of the urban landscape and limited drainage capacity also increases probability. High. 15 per cent of London currently lies in the high risk flood zone, including 1.25 million people and extensive public infrastructure. Risk is increasing because of new development on flood plains. High. Large numbers of flood vulnerable people and assets at flood risk. Warning times for fluvial floods can be short and public awareness of what to do is low. PREPARE. As a catastrophic tidal flood is very unlikely in London, the priority measures are to reduce fluvial and surface water flood risk and to protect key infrastructure at flood risk. Lead an citywide urban greening programme using green spaces and street trees located and designed to absorb and retain rainwater. Raise public awareness of flood risk through a co-ordinated information campaign. Work with the Environment Agency to improve flood risk management on the tributaries to the Thames where properties are at significant risk of flooding. Identify and protect critical infrastructure and vulnerable communities at flood risk. Map London s drainage network and develop a plan to reduce surface water flood risk. Increasing as summer rainfall and groundwater recharge reduces, and evaporation, mains leakage and public water demand increases. The London aquifer and catchments are already over-abstracted. High. Severe droughts can have significant socio-economic and environmental impacts. High. Large numbers of drought-vulnerable people and assets in the city. PREPARE. It is not possible to prevent a drought, but by reducing our demand for water, it is possible to increase the length of time it takes before drought measures are required and how significantly they impact on us. Promote and facilitate the reduction of leakage from water mains in London. Promote and facilitate compulsory water metering in all developments where feasible, accompanied by a billing system that incentivises water efficiency, but protects vulnerable households. Promote and facilitate the retrofitting of London s homes to become more water efficient. Encourage rainwater harvesting and grey water recycling in new buildings. Publish a strategy on how London can achieve a more sustainable water supplydemand balance that is resilient to climate change. Increasing as average summer temperatures get hotter, heatwave intensity increases and London s microclimate adds to night time temperatures. High. 600 people died in 2003 heatwave. A large proportion of London s population is vulnerable to heat and much of London s development and infrastructure is not designed for high temperatures. High. There are large numbers of heat-vulnerable people and assets in the city Poor air quality that usually occurs during a heatwave adds to the health impact. PREPARE. It is not possible to prevent a heatwave, but it is possible to limit our exposure to high temperatures by reducing how much the urban landscape intensifies the heatwave, and to reduce our vulnerability to high temperature. Lead an urban greening programme to cool the city using green spaces, street trees and urban design. Create an Urban Heat Island Action Area where new development must contribute to cooling the city. Enhance Londoners access to cool buildings during heatwaves to help people recover. Provide London-specific design guidance to enable architects to reduce the risk of new development overheating in future summers.

23 5 Health 21 Climate change will affect the health and quality of life of all Londoners. Existing inequalities in the health of Londoners means that some individuals and communities will be more vulnerable to the impact of climate change and therefore experience greater adverse consequences. Climate change is likely to increase this inequality further. The impact on the health of Londoners can be considered under three headings: Direct impact on health Increasing temperatures may on balance be beneficial to Londoners health. Warmer winters should reduce the number of people dying of winter related illnesses (there were 3,000 excess deaths in the winter of in London), while more frequent heatwaves will affect the health of vulnerable people (there were 600 excess deaths in London in the 2003 heatwave). Summer cool poverty may become an issue for people sensitive to heat and on low incomes who cannot afford air-conditioning. disasters and the risks of death, injury, disease and mental illness. Cases of food poisoning are expected to increase by 4.5 per cent for every 1ºC increase in temperature (primarily due to poor food hygiene and preparation). Indirect effects on health The health of individuals is also affected by other factors, such as the quality of their housing, employment, education and income. Climate change may affect these factors and therefore indirectly affect the health of Londoners. For example: The number and length of poor air quality episodes will increase in summer, but reduce in winter. This will most affect older people and those with respiratory problems. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather will increase the risk of weather-related

24 22 London Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Climate change will disproportionately affect Londoners living in poor quality and overcrowded housing (London has more poor quality homes than any other UK region). People working outside, engaged in heavy manual labour, or working in buildings that are not well ventilated or thermally regulated, will experience increasing occupational health risks. Educational attainment may be adversely affected in schools that are prone to overheating in hot weather, or schools that may be affected by flooding. Direct effects on the delivery of health services Extreme weather events may affect both the people working in health and social care services, and on the buildings and infrastructure where the care or supporting services are carried out. For example: Health and social care staff may be personally affected by an event Daily deaths in England and Wales during the 2003 summer heatwave

25 23 such as a flood, through physical injury, or be unable to attend work due to their homes, families or route to work being affected. There are a significant number of primary and secondary care facilities located in areas of flood risk (see Flood section). Frequently, the most expensive and vulnerable machinery and assets are located in basements, where they are most at risk. Hospitals and social care facilities are generally designed to be warm in winter, not cool in summer, so are prone to overheating. Many hospitals, including those being built or proposed under the government s PFI programme, do not have space cooling systems. Through the policies in the London Plan the Mayor will support and promote the effective adaptation of new development. All buildings, including schools and hospitals should be designed for the climate that they will experience over their design life.

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27 6 London s environment 25 London is the greenest world city, and the quality and abundance of its green spaces provides the opportunity for Londoners and visitors to have access to wildlife in an urban setting. London s green spaces (private gardens, public parks, wild spaces, urban forest, river and transport corridors) also perform a range of functions that improve the quality of life in London (see box). We need to make London even greener to regain some of the natural processes lost in urbanisation. Improving the function, quality, quantity, connectivity and diversity of London s green spaces will Potential functions for green spaces and vegetation within the city supporting biodiversity reducing flood risk by absorbing and retaining rainfall moderating the temperature through offsetting the urban heat island effect reducing energy demand by providing shade and reducing windspeed helping reduce air and noise pollution providing places for recreational and leisure activities that improve health improve our resilience to climate change and benefit wildlife. The Mayor s priority parks and street tree planting programmes are important steps in adapting London to its changing climate. The Mayor will convene a forum of key stakeholders in London responsible for green spaces to develop an urban greening programme for London, which will: identify and prioritise opportunities for greenspace projects that deliver functional benefits deliver and monitor greenspace pilot projects to determine what works best, where Richmond riverside at high tide.

28 26 London Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Photo above: a green roof on the Northern Line Control Centre, London. provide guidance on best practice in managing green spaces in a changing climate identify opportunities for green spaces to provide renewable energy (biomass and wind). Climate change and London s habitats London s key habitats will respond differently to climate change. Below are four examples where the Mayor would like to see environmental enhancements to improve biodiversity and make the city more resilient to the impact of climate change: Seventy-one per cent of London s watercourses flow in concrete channels, which increase the risk of flash flooding and provide little opportunity for biodiversity. Restoring these watercourses to a more natural state will reduce flood risk and create new habitat. Five per cent of London s area is wooded. Increasing the street tree cover will help to offset the intensification of the urban heat island created by new development. Encouraging developers to install green roofs on new and refurbished buildings will supplement the remaining brownfield habitat that is important to some of London s rarest species, as well as keeping buildings cool and absorbing rainfall. The Thames is London s largest open space. Sea level rise will reduce the remaining inter-tidal habitat vital to migrating birds. Setting back flood defences will provide additional flood storage and create new habitat. Green Grid The Green Grid is a programme of environmental projects in east London and part of the wider regeneration of the area. It uses the concept of locating and designing green space to maximise function and benefit. The Mayor is considering how to expand the Green Grid approach more widely across London.

29 7 London s economy 27 A safe bet for business London is one of the world s leading cities because it provides the skills and services that drive the global economy. For London to maintain this pre-eminence, and to continue to attract businesses to locate here, it must be seen as a safe place to do business. This strategy is one of the first comprehensive adaptation strategies produced by any major world city and it reinforces the Mayor s commitment to maintaining London as a world city. Impact on London s financial services Because of the global reach of London s financial services (insurance, banking, fund management, advice services etc), this sector is exposed to extreme weather and lack of adaptation, not just in the UK but worldwide. Many financial services still don t consider climate risks when making investment decisions. This exposes investors to significant risk, but also misses the opportunity to stimulate an enormous potential market for adaptation information and services. The Mayor does not have any formal jurisdiction over the financial services sector, but he believes that the sector has a responsibility to assist in identifying the threats and opportunities to London s economy. The Mayor therefore believes that London s financial services should prepare for further climate change through the advice they offer, the assets they invest in and the business plans they make. Enabling London to become a world exemplar in tackling climate change Globalisation and London s world city status means that London is uniquely placed to provide the skills, advice and products that the world needs to adapt. Demand for these services will extend beyond the financial services sector lawyers, accountants, management consultants, architects and engineers will all need to advise their clients on the reasonably foreseeable impact of climate change. The Mayor believes that London has a moral duty, as well as a financial opportunity, to help the world adapt. Effects of climate change on London s businesses Climate change will affect businesses in two ways: Incremental changes in the climate may mean that the current business model becomes increasingly unsustainable, or opportunities are missed. Direct, or indirect impact from sudden changes or extreme weather events may interrupt

30 28 London Climate Change Adaptation Strategy business in a way that cannot be managed under a business as usual approach. Businesses can respond to the climate risks and opportunities by undertaking a climate risk assessment (see box) and preparing a business continuity plan for extreme events. The London Development Agency will work with business organisations and other stakeholders to raise awareness of the need to integrate climate risks into business planning and to improving business continuity management. Research by AXA Insurance into the impact of the summer 2007 floods on business identified that many businesses, particularly small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) did not have adequate flooding or business interruption insurance in place prior to the floods. SMEs account for over 50 per cent of national income and employment. Sixty-nine per cent have no contingency plan to cope with serious events that might affect their business and 41 per cent have no business continuity or loss of earnings insurance.

31 8 Infrastructure 29 Transport London s transport network is the lifeblood of the city. Climate change could make travel on all forms of transport more uncomfortable and less predictable in the future. Some elements of the transport system, particularly the London Underground, are more exposed to the impacts of climate and will therefore experience greater risks. The key issues for London s transport are flooding and overheating. Flooding The London underground is particularly vulnerable to flooding because water will naturally flow to the lowest point. There are 75 stations at risk from flooding from the Thames and its tributaries. London Underground is working with the Environment Agency to identify the stations that are most at risk and review the flood plans for those stations. In 2002 and 2007, London experienced localised surface water flooding following summer rainstorms. The intensity of the rainfall overcame the local drainage networks and flooded homes, roads and other transport infrastructure. The Mayor has created a partnership of organisations to map London s drainage network and to develop a plan to improve London s surface water drainage. Overheating Hot summers already make travel on London Underground uncomfortable. Climate change and plans to increase the capacity of the network will increase temperatures on trains and platforms. London Underground has set up a special project team to develop a range of options to cool the network. Not all Underground lines will be equally affected, as lines closer to the surface will be more exposed to external temperatures and experience higher temperatures. London s buses are also prone to overheating. Transport for London (TfL) has been working with the contractors that run London s buses to ensure that new buses are designed for hot weather with tinted windows, improved ventilation and thermal insulation. Existing buses are also being fitted with white painted roofs and ventilation systems. Energy Changes in the climate will affect the amount of energy we use, what we use it for, when we use it and the security of our energy supply. Changing demand Warmer winters will reduce the demand for heating, while hotter summers, amplified by the urban heat island, will increase energy demand for cooling. It is estimated that future

32 30 London Climate Change Adaptation Strategy demand for cooling will be as large as, or even exceed, the energy savings of warmer winters. In 2006 the peak summer electrical energy demand exceeded the peak winter demand. Fuel poverty is currently used to describe the situation when people cannot afford to heat their homes. Climate change may reduce fuel poverty due to shorter and less cold winters, but may create summer cool poverty as people cannot afford to cool their homes a situation made worse by the fact that most of our housing stock was not designed for hot weather. Opportunities for renewable energy Longer growing seasons, more cloudfree days and potentially windier winters may benefit the generation of renewable energy through biomass, wind turbines, photovoltaic and solar thermal arrays. Energy security Energy generation is the single biggest water-consuming industry in the UK. Many coal and gas fired power stations are reliant on river water for cooling and may be affected by lower summer river levels. High temperatures also affect the efficiency of energy generation, so power output may be affected at a time when demand is high. Power stations on the coast, particularly the proposed next generation of nuclear power stations, will be vulnerable to sea level rise and tidal surges. The distribution network is also at risk from high temperatures, flooding and winter storms. The Mayor s commitment to reducing carbon emission by 60 per cent by 2025 through increased energy efficiency, use of decentralised energy and renewable energy will improve London s energy security. The increasing demand for summer cooling will also increase the business case for low carbon cooling solutions. The Mayor will publish a Climate Change Energy and Mitigation Strategy that will cover these issues in greater detail. Waste Climate change may affect the types of waste we produce, how much we produce and when we produce it. The waste management process is also vulnerable to the impact of extreme weather, from collection through to disposal. The need to build about 300 more waste management facilities in London provides the opportunity to locate and design these to be more resilient to extreme weather.

33 9 Next steps 31 How to comment on the draft strategy This is a summary of the draft London Climate Change Adaptation Strategy. The complete draft strategy can be downloaded from the Greater London Authority (GLA) website: The GLA has a two-stage statutory consultation process for developing and adopting Mayoral strategies. This first stage requires the Mayor to consult with the London Assembly and the GLA functional bodies (LDA, TfL, London Fire and Emergency Planning Authority, Metropolitan Police Authority), but wider comments are invited. The Mayor must consider the responses submitted by these bodies and then publish a second version of the strategy for public consultation. The Mayor s intention is to publish the public consultation draft of the London Climate Change Adaptation Strategy in If you would like to comment on this summary report, please send your comments to: adaptationcomments@london.gov.uk

34 Other formats and languages For a large print, Braille, disc, sign language video or audio-tape version of this document, please contact us at the address below: Public Liaison Unit Greater London Authority Telephone City Hall Minicom The Queen s Walk More London London SE1 2AA You will need to supply your name, your postal address and state the format and title of the publication you require. If you would like a summary of this document in your language, please phone the number or contact us at the address above. Chinese Hindi Vietnamese Bengali Greek Urdu Turkish Arabic Punjabi Gujarati MoL/08/MR D&P/GLA1096

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