Perspectives of sustainable Biofuels production in the world and EU

Transcription

1 European Biomass Industry Association Perspectives of sustainable Biofuels production in the world and EU GREENWEEK CONFERENCE June 2007 Session 14 June LAND USE AND BIODIVERSITY Dr. Giuliano GRASSI EUBIA Secretary General Rue d Arlon, B-1040 Brussels Belgium eubia@eubia.org

2 World current Situation Liquid Biofuels provide 1 % of present transport fuel demand Bioethanol provides ~ 2% of the World gasoline market Biodiesel provides 0.2 % of the World gasoline market Projection of biofuels contribution ~ bn TOE/y (Total potential biomass Contribution : 1.66 bn TOE/y (y 2030) source IEA- WEO/2006)

3 World biofuels markets Food oil Biodiesel Bioethanol (blending 10%) 290mio m3/y Mio m Biodiesel Food oil No fuel Fuel 60 Bioethanol Fuel Bioethanol (2.6% of gasoline market) Bioethanol trading (1,5 Mm3) 2006 Bioethanol (trading 1,5 Mm3) 2010 Bioethanol (trading 7 Mm3) 2010 Biodiesel ? Source : Biofuels Conference Feb (London)

4 Context Recent EU estimations of recoverable oil = bn barrels bn barrels already consumed Present consumption ~ 30 bn barrel/year World Oil cons

5 Oil Prices are likely to remain high because : Increasing demand (China, Korea, India etc ) Getting more difficult and expensive to extract oil (artic, deep sea, ) Limited refinery capacity to meet growing demand (number of vehicles from 600 mio to mio in ~ 20 years) Alternative fuels (from oil shale, tar sands, coal liquefaction) more costly Carbon charges to be added OPEC dominates the market With oil price rising alternatives liquid fuels will come on steam Liquid biofuels are gathering support because hydrogen remain a long term solution

6 Biofuels production for transport Composition (*MTOE) and objectives related to bioenergy in EU Biomass resource White Paper goals for 2010 Solid biomass 42,9* 48,4* 102 Gaseous biomass 1,2 1,8 15 Liquid biofuels 0,4 0,9 18 Biodiesel 0,28 0,70 - Bioethanol 0,08 0,20 - Total 44,5 51,1 135 (*MTOE) Source: Kopetz, 2003 in Renewable Energy in Europe (EREC) Draft copy January 2004

7 European biomass resources M TOE: Million of Tonnes Oil Equivalent (1 TOE ~ 2,4 t dry biomass) Current consumption (EU-15; 2001): - Primary energy: ~ 1486 M TOE/a - Biomass: ~ 57 M TOE/a EU guideline regarding biomass use: - for 2010 ~ 135 M TOE/a - for 2020 ~ 200 M TOE/a - EEA estimated potential (2030) ~ 300 M TOE/a Biomass potential (2050) - UE-15 ~ 500 M TOE/a - UE-25 ~ 600 M TOE/a Most will depend on agricultural land available and for dedicated crops

8 Best competitiveness levels for biofuels (short term) Bioethanol (from sugar beets at 18 /t) - Bioethanol dehydrated (100 ): ~ 740 /TOE Biodiesel (without support) Biomethanol ~ 930 /TOE ~ 600 /TOE Biohydrogen - from low-quality biom. pellets (90 / t; η~38%) ~ 600 /TOE (possible benefit from CO2 trading ~ 300 /t H2 ) - H2 from natural gas at 10 $/MMBTU ; η~57% ~ 650 /TOE Fischer-Tropsch (Biodiesel) ~ /TOE

9 Examples of energy crops MISCANTHUS ARUNDO DONAX SWEET SORGHUM CYNARA CARDUNCULUS

10 CANARY GRASS STRAW HEMP

11 POPLAR WILLOW PINE WILLOW BIRCH ROBINIA

12 Promotion of Biofuel in E.U. Sectorial Europe markets Total fuel for road-transport (2000): 310 MToe/y * Bio-fuel target ratio on total fuel road-transport ** Proposal under discussion EU directive 2003/30/CE (May 2003) F uture B io -fuel T arget fo r transpo rt %* 3,5 %* 4,25 %* 5 %* 3,5 %* 4,25 %* 5,75 %* 5,75 %* 20 %** 10 %** y e a r

13 EU framework for biofuels EU Directive 2003/30/CE : Biofuels with the major technical and economic potential: - Bioethanol (+ bio-etbe) - Biodiesel - Biogas - Biomethanol (+ bio-mtbe) - Biodimethylether (DME) - Synthetic biofuels - Biohydrogen - Pure vegetable oil

14 Why Bioethanol? Context CO2 Mitigation is now the first EC priority!! The EC biofuels target is 10 % for the year 2020 The estimated world potential (IEA) for biofuels is 30 % for the year 2030 What do if the abrupt climate change and peak of conventional oil by 2020 proved to be correct? Bioethanol could be produced quickly in large amounts from all types of biomass resources (sugar, starch, lignocellulosic)

15 /m Bioethanol Production Cost (2005) net 440 /m3 505 gross /m3 0 Brasil (Sugar cane) Thailand (Cassava) China (Corn) USA (Corn) EU (Wheat) Cost of dewatering : ~ 40 /m3 Transport brasil-eu : ~ 40 /m3 World Food Crops Grains : 2,7 billion t/y Corn : 0,7 billion t/y Oil seed : 0.32 billion t/y Sugar cane : 1.3 billion t/y

16 Future land use challenge for biofuels (world) Land availability (FAO) mio ha (present food area) mio ha (food area for 2025) mio ha (max Crop Area no-food) Logistics chains for all co-products : problems for larger supply (0.5 to some mio t/y) to the processing plants Products quality of co-products for several markets Present competitiveness for biofuels : /TOE High Energy Ratio (outputs/inputs) : interest for R 2.0 (Present Range from 1 to 8) The introduction of FF vehicles changes the fuel market (the consumer decides the fuel at the refuelling station : fuel price is the most important factor) Search for new crops Better economics with Multi feedstocks-multi products processing but it is very complex issue.

17 Estimation of agricultural land needed for the potential 2030 objective EU (if covered exclusively by biofuels) Assumption on the distribution of the 62 MTOE (2030 target): - 80% bioethanol + biomethanol (i.e MTOE) - 10% biodiesel (i.e. 6.2 MTOE) - 10% biohydrogen (i.e. 6.2 MTOE) Average yields for each biofuel: - Bioethanol + biomethanol : 4.30 TOE/ha - Biodiesel: 1.35 TOE/ha - Biohydrogen: 3.30 TOE/ha Corresponding areas to be cultivated yearly: - For bioethanol + biomethanol : M ha - For biodiesel: 4.59 M ha - For biohydrogen: 1.87 M ha Total agricultural area needed ~ 18 M ha/year (min) This corresponds to approx. 11 % of total UAA of UE-25 (~ 167 M ha)

18 Biofuels with the major technical and economic potential For each biofuel: advantages and drawbacks if compared between them or to other fuels The economic aspect will be the main driver of the penetration on the market Competitiveness will be based on the industrial costs of the end-products (gasoline and diesel fuel); an estimation for september 2005 (oil at 60 $/bbl) is: ~ 450 /TOE

19 Best Competitiveness levels for biofuels Hydrocarbons Quotation Best Biofuels costs estimations (based on Agro-pellets) (2,470 /th2 with CO2 credit) (2,730 /th2 without CO2 credit)

20 Concept of sweet-sorghum Biorefinery Integrated Bio-energy Complex: Exploiting all crop components to obtain several products (animal feed, fuel pellets and bioethanol), keeping the priority product bioethanol at the minimum cost. sweet sorghum plantation bioethanol plant (fermentation / distillation / dehydration) harvesting Bioethanol can be produced at 250 /m3 20,000 ha grain drying grain storage cane crushing bagasse pelleting (South, Central, East EU) pelleting Feed-pellets Fuel-pellets for heating Bioethanol 150,000 t 210,000 t 70,000 t

21 Typical Sweet sorghum integrated process (simultaneous production of bioethanol + cogeneration + animal feed) Sweet Sorghum Plantation Harvesting Cane Crushing Sugar juice Purification Grains Drying &Stor. Trashes Bagasse Fermentation Grains Milling Pelletisation Distillation Liquefaction & Saccarification CO 2 CHP For complex operation Dehydratation Centrifugation Pelletisation Agro-pellets Storage & Sale Power-Heat for sale ETOH Storage &Sale DDG Storage & Sale

22 Why Sweet Sorghum for Bioethanol? Sweet Sorghum is an extraordinarily promising multifunctional crop for several reasons: It requires common soil even with high % of sand and it is also adapted to salty areas; It requires low of water imputs ( ~ 200 m3 /ton), 1/3 of sugar cane requirements, 1/2 of corn; It has a short growing cycle from seeds (4/5 months), 1/3 of sugar cane; Many varieties are available for genetic improvment (~4,600) A high productivity of several components (grains, sugars, lignocellulosic); It can be grown in all continents, in tropical, sub-tropical and temperate regions (covering sugar-cane most sugarbeet areas);

23 Potential geographical areas for S. Sorghum Sugar beet Sugar cane Sweet Sorghum

24 Potentiality for a World-wide Co production of Green-Power & Bioethanol could have large impact on Development and G.H.G mitigation Source:

25 Sweet Sorghum High Etoh Productivity Typical productivity from different varieties ETOH (l/ha) Sweet Sorghum variety But the real crop development for ETOH is not yet started! Shennong1(China) Shennong1(Italy) Foralco(ITA) Sofra(ITA) Doina(RUM) Carmen(RUM) Doina(India) F-135ST(India)

26 Why low cost production for Bioethanol? By high productivity (this has been demonstrated) by large plantation ( ha). By the valorisation of all components of the crop;(assuming for example): Grains (90 /t) Sugars (50 /t) Lignocellulosic (12 /t) Assuming prudently that 50% of the ETOH production cost is due to the feedstock (sugar) supply, the cost of sugar from the production of one ton of bioethanol is : 50 /t * *0.5 3 * = 118 /t ETOH Sufficient to cover the production cost of 1250 /ha 1: Sugar extraction efficienc 2. Fermentation efficiency 3. ETOH/sugar conversion 4: Industrial efficiency Thus the bioethanol cost from sweet sorghum will be 236 /t (~ 190 /m 3 ): Conservative figure: 250 /m 3 (1/2 of present EU prod. cost!)

27 Which size of Integrated Sweet Sorghum Complex could be economically viable in the E.U.? - Minimum plantations size (Decentralised production): 1000 ha Bioethanol capacity (microdistillery): 6,000 m3/ y 1 or 2 level of integration - Large plantations size (Centralised production) : 10,000-50,000 ha (or more) Bioethanol capacity 60, ,000 m3/ y

28 Which R.O.I. can be expected? - Decentralised Bioethanol power production: (~1,000 ha) Investment: 10/15 mio R.O.I. ~ 15 % (min) - Centralised Bioethanol production: (> 20,000 ha) Investment: ~ 250 mio (if large scale power production is desired) R.O.I. : 22 % (min) The availability of green-certificates or CO 2 trading influence considerably the ROI ( With Bioethanol market value: 550 /m 3 )

29 Social benefits from bioenergy USA ~ 1 M TOE / year bioethanol from maize ~ 7,980 jobs agric. sector (54%) ~ 5,320 jobs in industry and services (36%) 14,860 jobs 1 job for 67 TOE bioeth./year ~ 1,560 jobs plant construction (11%) European Union (estimation) ~ 20,100 jobs per M TOE eth./year 1 job for 50 TOE bioeth./year Brasil: (for 1 M TOE bioethanol/year): ~ 63,000 jobs (agric. sector) ~ 25,240 jobs (industry) ~ 88, 240 jobs TOTAL 1 job for 7 TOE bioeth./year

30 Positive Environmental Performance Sweet Sorghum absorbs large amount of CO 2 (~45 t CO 2 /hax cycle); 1 ltr of bio-ethanol saves ~2,2 Kg CO 2 (transport); Low energy, chemical, irrigation water inputs; Respect of biodiversity in large plantations (wide range of varieties); Soil erosion loss (on marginal erodible sites) ~10 t/ha/y, within the tolerance level (11 t/ha/y); Large amount of compost from Sweet Sorghum residues (~15d.t/ha/y cycle) can improve the sustainability of cropping; NOTE Sweet-Sorghum must be considered, multi-functional crop, not a competitor crop for the sugar market!

31 Energy performance of sweet sorghum R = product energy output product energy input 1. On field crop production: R ~ Production of ETOH + DDG + Agropellets: R ~ Production of ETOH + DDG + Green power plant (η~28%): R ~ Production of ETOH + DDG + Coal/pellets cofiring(η~40%): R ~ Production of ETOH + DDG + Biohydrogen: R ~ 4.6 (See figure next slide) For comparison (co-products not considered) Bioethanol from wheat: 1.1 Bioethanol from corn: 1.3 Bioethanol from sugar beat/potatoes: 1.76 Bioethanol from sugar-cane: (Brasil): ~8

32 General Environmental Benefits Optimised bioenergy closed schemes i.e. Sweet-Sorghum biorefineries (biomass production, conversion and utilisation) present energy ratio: (outputs / inputs) ~ 2 or more. Therefore they are neutral from the CO2 emission into atmosphere and can greatly benefit from CO2-trading Biomass resources contain very low amounts of sulphur so SO2 emissions during combustion are very limited Particulate and other regulated emissions can be controlled by existing commercial technologies Biofuels are of great interest for the transport sector and able to decrease the negative environmental impact of congested urban areas

33 General Environmental Benefits Water availability is decreasing x 1000 cubic meter / person South America North America Africa Asia Europe thus : Efficient irrigation scheme Choice of Energy crops

34 General Environmental Benefits Soil fertility Conservation : Preserve the mass balance output/inputs Recycling part of crop (compost) Rotation of crops Respect of Biodiversity : Optimisation of the architecture of large plantations by the adoption of : Different varieties Inter-cropping Rotation of crops Soil erosion control by : Specific agronomics practices Growing grasses with main crops

35 Sweet Sorghum Plantation Agropellets machine Harvester machine

36 Decentralised Production ( m3/y) Centralised Production ( m3/y)

37 European Biomass Industry Association APPENDIX

38 World Oil Consumption 1937 Total Oil Production Gasoline Consumption Oil fuel Consumption Number of vehicles Total alternative s fuels 300 Mton/y 85 Mton/y 95 Mton/y 40 mio. 2.9 Mton/y (7.5 mio in USA)

39 History of Biofuel & Synthetic Fuels Production (World) (t/y) Total Syntehtic Gasoline Benzol Bioethanol

40 Synthetic Gasoline Hydrogenation Fisher-Tropsch Feedstock Capacity (gasoline/year) 8 t coal or 15 t lignite T gasoline > t/y ~ 17 t lignite T gasoline > t/y Process High pressure Low pressure Quality High octane Low octane Investment 880 mio li ( t/y) 220 mio li ( t/y) Production cost 1.61 li/kg 1.65 li/kg

41 European Production of Bioethanol & Synthetic Fuels Production (t/y) year Total % of total transport Synthetic Gasoline by hydrogenatio n of bituminous coal, lignites Gasoline from schistes Benzol Bioethanol % (3.55% of total)

42 European Consumption 1937 (t/year) Country Bioethanol Synthetic Fuels Total alternative fuels Total Transport Fuels Consumption Total Alternat. Total consump. UK ,1% France ,8% Germany ,5% Sweden ,1% Italy ,7% Europe (17 countries) ,7%

43 European Consumption 1937 (t/year) Synthetic Fuels Bioethanol Sweden Italy Germany France UK

44 State Subsidies for Alternative Fuels (1937) in mio Li/year Bioethanol Synthetic Gasoline Total Germany mio Li 1,979 mio Li mio Li UK 29 mio Li 323 mio Li 352 mio Li France 696 mio Li 174 mio Li 870 mio Li Italy 79 mio Li - 79 mio Li Sweden 16 mio Li - 16 mio Li Average 1,800 mio Li / t Alternative Fuel

45 European Biomass Industry Association Thank you for your attention! EUBIA Rue d Arlon, B-1040 Brussels, Belgium eubia@eubia.org