URBANAIR. An operational modelling system for survey and forecasting of air quality at urban scale NUMTECH

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1 URBANAIR An operational modelling system for survey and forecasting of air quality at urban scale Frédéric PRADELLE 1, Alexandre ARMENGAUD 2, Céline PESIN 1, Marie-Noëlle ROLLAND 1, Jonathan VIRGA 2, Gaëlle LUNEAU 2, David POULET 1, Charles SCHILLINGER 3 1, Clermont-Ferrand, France 2 Atmo PACA, Marseille, France 3 ASPA, Strasbourg, France Harmo 13, Paris, 1-4 June 2010

2 PRESENTATION Outline DEPLOYMENT APPLICATIONS DEVELOPMENTS PACA Presentation of the system Deployment methodology Examples of operational applications Current developments Applied use in the PACA Region (Atmo PACA)

3 PRESENTATION DEPLOYMENT APPLICATIONS DEVELOPMENTS PACA Presentation URBANAIR : high resolution modeling system An operational modeling system developed by (2005) with the support of ADEME, in collaboration with Ecole Centrale de Lyon since Based on high resolution dispersion models : ADMS-Urban (Mc Hugh et al., 1997) and SIRANE (Soulhac, 2000). The system provides pollutant concentrations (NO 2, O 3, PM 10, C 6 H 6, SO 2 ) at street scale on the whole urban area, generally at hourly time step.

4 Presentation Air quality observations Meteo observations and predictions Background concentrations Emission inventory Surface topography URBAN Air operational forecasts URBANAIR ADMS-Urban Daily pollution map Text & data summaries UAS performances Land use Alerts and informations

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6 PRESENTATION DEPLOYMENT APPLICATIONS DEVELOPMENTS PACA Presentation Operating modes Diagnostic mode Operational mode study of pollution episode AQ directive / reporting Mitigation / source apportionnement Nowcasting calculation of concentrations 48-hour forecasting

7 PRESENTATION Deployment of the system DEPLOYMENT APPLICATIONS DEVELOPMENTS PACA

8 PRESENTATION Deployment of the system DEPLOYMENT APPLICATIONS DEVELOPMENTS Step 1: Modeling phase and first calculations PACA

9 Measured NO 2 concentrations PRESENTATION Deployment of the system DEPLOYMENT APPLICATIONS DEVELOPMENTS PACA Step 1: Modeling phase and first calculations Step 2: capacity of the system to reproduce the spatial distribution of the concentrations? y=0.9734x R=0.856 Période hivernale modèle Modelled NO 2 concentrations

10 concentration en NO 2 (ug/m 3 ) PRESENTATION Deployment of the system DEPLOYMENT APPLICATIONS DEVELOPMENTS PACA Step 1: Modeling phase and first calculations Step 2: capacity of the system to reproduce the spatial distribution of the concentrations? Step 3: capacity of the system to reproduce the temporal evolution of the concentrations? mesure ADMS-Urban Jours juliens

11 PRESENTATION Deployment of the system DEPLOYMENT APPLICATIONS DEVELOPMENTS PACA Step 1: Modeling phase and first calculations Step 2: capacity of the system to reproduce the spatial distribution of the concentrations? Step 3: capacity of the system to reproduce the temporal evolutions of the concentrations? Step 4: quality of the results in forecast mode (which depends on meteorological and background pollution prediction)

12 PRESENTATION Deployment of the system DEPLOYMENT APPLICATIONS DEVELOPMENTS PACA Step 1: Modeling phase and first calculations Step 2: capacity of the system to reproduce the spatial distribution of the concentrations? Step 3: capacity of the system to reproduce the temporal evolutions of the concentrations? Step 4: quality of the results in forecast mode (which depends on meteorological and background pollution prediction) Step 5: Implementation of the operational system

13 PRESENTATION DEPLOYMENT Adjustment of the system Sensitivity tests and evaluation of the system APPLICATIONS DEVELOPMENTS PACA Input data topography site meteorological data - wind components - minimal LMO background concentrations emission data ADMS-Urban Output data Short/long term results Focus on pollution Episodes Pollution maps Observations stations tubes passifs Statistical validation Comparison of model results and measurements step 1 Sensitivity tests step 4 step 3 System modifications adjustment of input data that influences the dispersion integration of new input data system simplification Take decisions based on the statistical analysis R 2? 1 BIAIS, RMSE? 0 step 2

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15 % PRESENTATION DEPLOYMENT APPLICATIONS Some results for Strasbourg Proportion of good prediction (%) of AQ indexes for the year 2009 DEVELOPMENTS PACA AQI O3 NO2 PM D D + 1 D + 2

16 % PRESENTATION DEPLOYMENT APPLICATIONS Some results for Strasbourg Proportion of good prediction (%) of AQ indexes +/- 1 for the year 2009 DEVELOPMENTS PACA AQI O3 NO2 PM D D + 1 D + 2

17 PRESENTATION FUNCTIONING DEPLOYMENT ADUJSTING APPLICATIONS

18 % PRESENTATION DEPLOYMENT APPLICATIONS Some results for Aix-en-Provence Comparison between UAS and regional modeling platform (AIRES/PREVAIR) DEVELOPMENTS PACA Proportion of good prediction (index +/-1) for all forecasted indexes From Januray to May 2010 UAS AIRES/PREVAIR O3 NO2 PM AQI

19 % PRESENTATION DEPLOYMENT APPLICATIONS Some results for Aix-en-Provence Comparison between UAS and regional modeling platform (AIRES/PREVAIR) DEVELOPMENTS PACA Proportion of good prediction (index +/-1) in case of observed indexes = 5 5 From Januray to May 2010 UAS AIRES/PREVAIR O3 NO2 PM AQI

20 PRESENTATION Current developments DEPLOYMENT APPLICATIONS DEVELOPMENTS PACA Optimization of the codes Development of a tool box for the users Assimilation of observation data (partnership with INRIA) Current implementation of the system on several cities: Aix-en- Provence, Nice, Orléans, Tours, Clermont- Ferrand

21 4 urban platforms dedicated to air quality survey in PACA region Alexandre Armengaud, Frédéric Pradelle, Gaëlle Luneau, Céline Pesin, Marie Noëlle Rolland, Jonathan Virga, 21/12 Benjamin Rocher

22 ATMO PACA 38 observatories approved by the French Ministry of the Environment and gathered within federation ATMO Atmo PACA 22/12

23 MISSIONS We have to : Know the air quality on the territory and its evolution in time, Characterize the levels by report/ratio with health and environmental standards, Forecast episodes of pollution, Inform population within the best time, Sensitize with the air quality, To be used as point of support with research, To take part in the reflexions on urban development : tools of decision-making aid. NO x 10 % 51 % 12 % 13 % Agriculture /forestry Energy transform ation Industry and waste treatm ent Residential/tertiary O ther transport Road transport 10 % 4 % 23/12

24 AIRES-MEDITERRANEE.ORG 27 km 9 km Inter REGIONAL SYSTEM AIRES METEO & CHIMISTRY MM5 CHIMERE WRF System Integrated, Modular for Forecast (48h), Survey and Scenarios at different scales, O 3, NO 2, PM 3 km AIRES : from occitan «Aire» [ajre] : n.m. air ; Atmospheric Integrated REgional System 3 km 24/12

25 REGIONAL TO URBAN SCALE 25/12

26 Mesured Conc. NO2 SIMPYC (µg/m3) TOULON y = 0,9872x + 0,1963 R 2 = 0, Simulated Conc. NO2 with ADMS URBAN (µg/m3) No background concentrations (cadastre approach) ; 103 observations Bias : -3 mg/m 3 (annual) Correlation : 0.8 (annual) 26/12

27 AIX EN PROVENCE PAYS D AIX 6000 roads calculation pts 340 industrials sources vol. sources No background concentrations (cadastre approach) ; 200 observations Bias : -1 mg/m 3 (summer) +1.3 mg/m 3 (winter) Correlation : 0.84 (summer) (winter) 27/12

28 M odelled concentration (mg/m 3 ) ANTIBES SOPHIA ANTIPOLIS 4000 roads calculation pts 80 Com parison for observations vs.m ode ling ofno 2 Antibes and its suburb M esured concentration (mg/m 3 ) No background concentrations (cadastre approach) ; 102 observations Bias : +4.6 mg/m 3 (summer) -0.8 mg/m 3 (winter) 28/12 Correlation : 0.89 (summer) (winter)

29 M odelled concentration (mg/m 3 ) NICE CÔTE D AZUR 8000 Roads calculation pts 80 Com parison for observations vs.m ode ling ofno 2 Nice and its suburb M esured concentration (mg/m 3 ) No background concentrations (cadastre approach) ; 160 observations Bias : +3 mg/m 3 (summer) -8 mg/m 3 (winter) Correlation : 0.7 (summer & winter) 29/12

30 EXPOLOGY Soil occupation, buildings, population 30/12

31 CONCLUSIONS Mapping Air Quality & Survey territory Forecast and Communication Regulation & actions plans Urban and Metropolitan Air Quality platforms are necessary National, European Reporting European Directives and Urban Health impacts Scenarios Decision making aid 31/12

32 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION More details Atmo PACA Le Noilly Paradis 146 rue Paradis Marseille Cedex 06 Téléphone : +33(0) Allée Alan Turing BP Parc technologique de la Pardieu Aubière Cedex 32/12