Bcma Global LNG Liqufaction capacity existing & FID d/under construction

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Dwight Terry
6 years ago
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OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES Natural Gas

2025: pricing and contractual challenges Professor

Natural Gas Research Programme OIES IEEJ 50 TH

1 OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES Natural Gas Research Programme Asian LNG Market Development to 2025: pricing and contractual challenges Professor Jonathan Stern Chairman and Senior Research Fellow Natural Gas Research Programme OIES IEEJ 50 TH /APERC 20 TH ANNIVERSARY JOINT SYMPOSIUM, TOKYO, MAY 26-27,2016

2 Bcma Global LNG Liqufaction capacity existing & FID d/under construction Source: LeDesma/Rogers OIES Corpus Christi T1 & 2 Aus. Queensland Curtis PNG Cameron Dominion Cove Point Freeport Sabine Pass T1 T5 Yamal 1 Aus. Prelude Aus. Icthys Aus. Gorgon T2 Aus. Wheatstone Aus. Gorgon T1 Aus. AP LNG Aus. Gladstone Santos Global export capacity will expand by 50% USA - Corpus Christi T1& 2 USA - Cameron LNG USA - Dominion Cove Point USA - Freeport USA-Sabine Pass T1 - T5 Russia-Yamal 1 Australia-CSG Curtis (Shell/Petrochina) Australia - Prelude Australia-Icthys Australia-Gorgon T2 Australia-Wheatstone Australia-Gorgon T1 Australia-Asia Pacific LNG (CP) Malaysia-Sarawak Australia-Gladstone Santos Australia-Queensland Curtis Papua New Guinea-Hides Existing

3 $/mmbtu Since 2014 Gas/LNG prices have fallen and regional price levels have converged (the `Asian premium disappears!) Jan-13 Europe Oil Indexed Contract Pre 2009 formula Jul-13 With 15% Reduction German Border Price Jan-14 Brent Jul-14 SOURCES: Platts, EIA, Argus, CME, OIES NBP Asian LNG Spot Jan-15 Average Japan LNG Price Henry Hub Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16

4 Future Asia-Pacific LNG demand will depend on ENVIRONMENT but also on PRICE In many Asia-Pacific countries air quality is a more important environmental issue than carbon reduction Many Asia-Pacific countries not just China and India - have policies to build substantial additional coal-fired and renewable capacity; but if they are to improve air quality they will need substantial additional gas in the cities Gas demand increases will be affordable if LNG prices remain at 2016 levels BUT.. This may only be the case for the next five years As an analytical community we are very poor at predicting price elasticity of demand 21

5 BCMA Asian LNG Demand to 2030 Big Uncertainties Low Case Source: GIIGNL, Rogers/OIES India China Taiwan Korea Japan Malaysia Vietnam Phillipines Bangladesh Pakistan Indonesia Thailand Singapore India China Taiwan Korea Japan BCMA Japan Nuclear restart pace and extent High Case China gas demand growth & Russian pipeline timing Malaysia Vietnam Philippines Bangladesh Pakistan Indonesia Malaysia Thailand Vietnam Singapore Phillipines Bangladesh Pakistan Indonesia Thailand Singapore India China Taiwan Korea Japan

6 The move away from JCC to a market price; and from long term contracts to a portfolio PRICES transition from JCC to spot/hub prices: LNG price indices exist: JKM, RIM, Argus, JOE too few cargos (at least currently) on which to base long term contracts Asia can use NBP for hedging developing hubs in Asia will take time CONTRACTS not the end of long term contracts BUT: a more balanced portfolio long, medium and short greater flexibility of destination and volume regular price review with precise criteria This is much easier with new contracts; changing existing contracts is more problematic

7 Japanese LNG Import Prices Sources: Platts, Argus, METI In 2016 JKM and NBP have converged

Stages of Hub Development: Singapore, Shanghai or Tokyo (or all three?

perhaps even by 2020) we will see Asian hub(s) established Futures Exchange OTC

Discovery and Disclosure Bi-Lateral Trades Third Part Access to Pipelines/Regas

8 Stages of Hub Development: Singapore, Shanghai or Tokyo (or all three?) In Europe hub development has been a 5-10 year process, but by 2025 (and perhaps even by 2020) we will see Asian hub(s) established Futures Exchange OTC Brokered Trading Balancing Rules & Standardised Trading Contracts Price Discovery and Disclosure Bi-Lateral Trades Third Part Access to Pipelines/Regas Terminals Indices derived for LT Contracts Liquid Forward Curve Develops Non Physical Players enter

9 Asian Hubs: Gas or LNG? Physical or Virtual? SINGAPORE HUB: physical LNG hub, strong `first-mover advantage, limited domestic growth potential; could become a virtual LNG hub for SE Asia SHANGHAI HUB: physical gas hub huge growth potential domestic gas production+pipeline and LNG imports a `benchmark not a supply/demand price (yet) TOKYO (OSAKA?) HUB (to be created): LNG hub physical (due to lack of national pipeline connections) could become virtual 21

10 Summary: surplus of LNG supply over demand and low prices for 5/6 years THIS SHOULD PROVIDE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR: Increased demand Increase spot trade and over a 5-10 year period, hub development BUT This will require liberalization of prices and access to facilities to create competition It is a very destructive process in terms of utilities and the traditional contractual structure Governments, regulators and market players will need to revise their view of security of supply 21

11 WE ARE: A gas research programme at a Recognised Independent Research Centre of Oxford University, specialising in fossil fuel research The only European academic research group wholly focussed on natural gas issues WE PRODUCE: independent research on national and international gas issues OIES Natural Gas Research Programme WE ARE FUNDED BY: sponsorship by 20 companies and governments in gas producing and consuming countries WE ARE NOT: consultants, sellers of exclusive, high price business reports The Oxford Institute has consistently been one of the world s top four Energy and Resource Policy Think Tanks Contact :report@tky

those where domestic gas prices and affordability both in absolute terms and relative to other sources of energy are likely to restrict development of

those where domestic gas prices and affordability both in absolute terms and relative to other sources of energy are likely to restrict development of Can Demand for Imported LNG in Asia Increase Because It is a Cleaner Energy Source? Jonathan Stern * Introduction During the period 2014-21, global LNG supply is expected to increase from around 320 Bcm