Climate change adaptation and Australia's water resources and freshwater biodiversity

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1 Climate change adaptation and Australia's water resources and freshwater biodiversity Stuart Bunn (Convenor) Brendan Edgar (Coordinator)

2 Outline Context freshwater biodiversity Direct climate change threats Rising temperature Rising sea level Changing rainfall and flow regimes Climate change in context Climate vs direct impacts of humans on freshwater resources National Climate Change Adaptation Facility

3 Freshwater biodiversity Surface freshwater habitats contain only around 0.01% of the world s water and cover only about 0.8% of the Earth s surface Yet supports 9.5% of all described animal species (~40% of fish diversity and 30% vertebrate diversity)

4 Trends in biodiversity: Population declines in freshwater are twice that of terrestrial and marine systems Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005 Anthropocene for freshwater? 10,000-20,000 freshwater species are extinct or imperiled In intensively developed regions, more than one-third of the species in some freshwater taxa are threatened Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005

5 Freshwater biodiversity BC Sturgeon Goddess of the Yangtze (Baiji ) Mekong catfish Qld Lungfish Mary River Turtle

6 Australia s freshwater biodiversity Many faunal groups are more diverse in Australia than elsewhere (e.g. galaxiid fish, parastacid crayfish, phreatoicid isopods) Highly diverse stygofauna Fish fauna is relatively depauperate (~200 spp) though shows a high degree of endemism Biota include relicts of Pangaean and Gondwanan origin (e.g. syncarid shrimps, petalurid dragonflies, lungfish, salamander fish)

7 Temperature CSIRO (2007). Climate change in Australia

8 Rising stream temperatures Spiny crayfish - Euastacus unique endemics intolerant of high temperatures tops of mountains in mesic rainforests mesothermal island archipelago

9 Distribution of Queensland Euastacus Cairns 1370 m Townsville 1. E. robertsi 2. E. fleckeri 3. E. balanensis 4. E. robertsi E. yigara 5. E. bindal 6. E. eungella 7. E. monteithorium 8. E. hystricosus 9. E. urospinosus 10. E. setosus 11. E. jagara 12. E. suttoni 13. E. sulcatus 14. E. maidae 15. E. valentulus 1300 m E. fleckeri 1580 m E. balanensis (>1000 m) E. bindal m o C Mackay 1340 m 1280 m E. eungella (>750 m) N Queensland 7. M.Ponniah (2003) Gladstone Brisbane m E. monteithorum 800 m 1100 m E. urospinosus E. hystricosus 680 m E. setosus E. sulcatus (>500 m) (>250 m)

10 Stream-dwelling rainforest frogs similar fate? Torrent Tree Frog Litoria nannotis Photo R.Alford Lace-eyed tree frog Nyctimystes dayi Photo H. Cogger Northern Tinkerfrog Taudactylus rheophilus

11 Rising seas - coastal wetlands Many of northern Australia s freshwater lagoons are low-lying ( m above MHWL) and vulnerable to projected sea-level rises of cms Lowry & Knox (in prep). Expansion of tidal channel networks Increased storm surge

12 Changing rainfall patterns

13 Reduction in stream flows e.g. Flow scenarios in the Macquarie River: 3 10% lower rainfall by 2030, 3 10% higher evaporation and 11 32% reduction in MAR into the Marshes by 2030 likely to result in a reduction of semi-permanent and ephemeral wetland vegetation by 20-40% similar reductions (up to 30% MAR) predicted for other MDB rivers (e.g. Ovens, Goulburn) Environment does not have same security of water entitlement as consumptive users

14 Dryland rivers - water holes

15 Refugia for aquatic biota

16 Waterhole persistence Long dry spells with little local rainfall High evaporation (2-3m), Shallow (often <2 m) Topped up by surface flow - no groundwater inputs GL/day months longest spell Hamilton et al. (2005) L&O 50,

17 Dry spell < 2 years ~ 40 waterholes

18 Australia s freshwater biodiversity in a future climate? Loss of some endemics even under conservative temperature scenarios (e.g. mountain islands) Losses of freshwater wetlands and associated biota - rising sea levels (tidal intrusion + storm surge) Changing flow regimes (drier and more variable; higher evaporation?) - increased pressure on refugia Direct effects of humans on rivers will be more significant in the short term urban expansion and increased agricultural demand for water. Climate variability compound this further as we attempt to drought proof our cities. Adaptation challenge: How do we meet these growing demands without causing further declines in biodiversity and ecosystem health?

19 Water & climate news Countryman; 16/07/2009 Sunday Mail Adelaide 15-Nov-2009 Courier Mail 04-Dec-2009 Australian 16-Nov-2009 Sunday Age; 19/07/2009 Adelaide Advertiser; 16/07/2009 Age; 20/07/2009 Sunraysia Daily; 16/07/2009 Sunday Mail Adelaide; 19/07/2009 Sunraysia Daily; 15/07/2009 Australian; 16/07/2009 Australian Journal Of Mining; 01/08/2009

20 OECD study on agricultural water use Irrigated area not likely to increase very much over coming decades Megalitres per hectare of irrigated land Major new irrigation infrastructure development unlikely (i.e. financial and physical limits) % change to % Potential for agriculture to use recycled and desalinated water marginal and costly High priority to improve productivity of existing irrigation system, and raise the water productivity of rain-fed agricultural systems % -12% -50% +69% -19% +7% na 0 Australia Spain United States Mexico Turkey Greece Portugal Italy

21 Calls to drought-proof our cities In the face of growing population and greater variability and uncertainty in rainfall and runoff:

22 Southern pipe dreams

23 South East Queensland water grid Mary River new dams Desalination Potable re-use interbasin transfers little discussion of environmental flow provisions

24 Threatened freshwater species Photo: Scott Lamond

25 NCCARF Water network Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility Water Resources & Freshwater Biodiversity Network Hosted by Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University WA Governance Water Resources Freshwater biodiversity Climate scenarios Murdoch U Regional nodes SA Vic Tas ACT NSW Qld Adelaide U UniWater U Tasmania Capital-WATER Newcastle U Griffith U NT Charles Darwin U Adaptation themes Node Host

26 Partners Current - research Griffith University University of Adelaide Australian National University Charles Darwin University CSIRO James Cook University MDFRC/LaTrobe Melbourne University Monash University Murdoch University Museum of Victoria NRETA NSW Dept Climate Change Qld University of Technology SAWater SARDI University of Canberra University of Newcastle University of New South Wales University of Southern Qld University of Tasmania University of Technology Sydney University of Western Australia UniWater Through nodes State and Territory natural resource management agencies Local Government Catchment management authorities Industry Representative bodies Agriculture, mining, consulting firms

27 Network themes Climate Scenarios develop scenarios of likely climate change and its implications for freshwater biodiversity and water resources Governance inform development of water allocation and market arrangements that support adaptation to climate change Water Resources inform policies and management practices for interception activities (including farms dams, plantation forestry) and the joint management of surface and groundwater Freshwater Biodiversity inform adaptive management of environmental flows and other mitigation strategies to protect freshwater biodiversity and maintain aquatic ecosystem health Capacity Building building the capability of science and management to coordinate and deliver adaptive management responses

28 Links with other networks Settlements and Infrastructure Theme Water security - desalination, PRW stormwater quantity Water Resources and Freshwater Biodiversity Network Governance Climate scenarios Capacity Building Terrestrial Biodiversity Theme Terrestrial biodiversity - Links to wetlands and groundwater dependent ecosystems Water Resources Freshwater biodiversity Crop water use efficiency Primary industries Theme Water-borne disease Estuarine ecosystems - environmental flows, wastewater management Marine Biodiversity and Resources Theme Human health Theme

29 Current network activities Coordinating research proposals (NARP) Synthesis papers/ fact sheets on Themes and Issues Scholarships/bursaries Network communication and workshops Network expansion jurisdictions

30 Questions?

31 Climate Scenarios Downscaling climate models Modelling extreme events Understanding past and present hydro-climate Vegetation/ water relationships Water Resources Integrated hydrologic modelling Energy/ food/ supply-demand Coastal vulnerability Groundwater/ surface water management

32 Governance Institutional and legal Structures Water pricing and markets Water planning Regional planning Freshwater Biodiversity Species distribution and climate relationships Flow and habitat management Refugia and reserve design Fragmentation and barriers

33 Capacity Building Professional capability Science communication Institutional Capacity Research opportunities