Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska

Transcription

1 Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska Thursday, June 5, 2014 Presented by: Shane Parson, PhD, PE, CFM Kimberley A. Pirri, PE, CFM R. Scott Simmons, CFM, CPM

2 Agenda Project Background Seward, Alaska Why does Seward care about climate change? Climate Change Modeling Overview Floodplain Modeling Mitigation Strategy ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 2

3 The Team Dan Mahalak Scott Simmons Rich Chamberlain Kim Pirri Jon Philipsborn Shane Parson Client with Seward Flood Service Area PM (Anchorage) GIS/Hazus Riverine (Denver) Hydrology and Hydraulics (Denver) Climate Change (Atlanta) Hazus UDF, Tsunami, EQ (Maryland/Virginia) ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 3

4 Project Background ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 4

5 The Project Update Local Hazard Mitigation Plan Annex for the Seward Bear Creek Flood Service Area (SBCFSA) near Seward, Alaska Evaluate all natural hazards Estimate potential damages (FEMA Hazus Model) Include scenarios for climate change and land use change Develop mitigation approaches ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 5

6 The Local HMP Update Process FEMA requires a complete LHMP review to identify needed updates and status of proposed implementation activities Identify unlisted current LHMP Hazards that threaten the SBCFSA Determine the Risks from each new and existing hazard Develop Planning Goals for the SBCFSA Determine status of prior selected and implemented actions and projects Develop new, or refine existing, mitigation Programs, Actions, and/or Projects ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 6

7 Hazards Profiled Earthquake Hazus Modeling Erosion Flood (Riverine, Coastal) Hazus modeling Ground Failure (avalanche, landslide, subsidence, unstable soils) Severe Weather Tsunami and Seiche Hazus modeling Volcanic Hazards Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Climate Change Considerations ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 7

8 Seward, Alaska ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 8

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14 Why does Seward care about climate change? ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 14

15 Reason #1: 1964 Good Friday Earthquake and Tsunami ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 15

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18 Reason #2: Glacial ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 18 18

19 MELT! ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 19 19

20 Reason #3: Recent Flooding September 2012 Seward Highway Milepost 3.5 Overflow ~18 deep ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 20

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22 Climate Change Modeling ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 22

23 IPCC 5th Assessment Report 2013 ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 23

24 Climate Change Models Based on Global Observations ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 24

25 Future Scenarios based on Global Response (or lack thereof) ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 25

26 IPCC: 3 Scenarios Used for Seward ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 26

27 How do we bring climate change into floodplain modeling? Where is my decoder ring? ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 27

28 Downscaled Model Data ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 28

29 Floodplain Modeling ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 29

30 Riverine Floodplain Analysis 2. Hydrologic Analysis 1. Climate Change Data 4. Flood Boundary Analysis 3. Hydraulic Analysis ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 30

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33 Downscaled Data for Hydrologic Modeling: Peak Flow Regression Equations Seward, Alaska ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 33

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36 Hazus UDF Analysis with User-Defined Depth Grids ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 36

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38 NOAA Sea Level Trends

39 Seward, AK Sea Level Change 39

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42 Mitigation Strategy ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 42

43 Mitigation Strategy A comprehensive risk assessment is essential Establish Mitigation Goals Defines what SBCFSA desires to accomplish Identify the Most Effective Projects Good projects will reduce future damage Prioritize Projects listed in the order that is most important for the SBCFSA to reduce or eliminate the worst repeated damages ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 43

44 Mitigation Recommendations Promote recognizing and mitigating all natural hazards that affect the SBCFSA. Reduce loss and damage possibility from all natural hazards that affect the area. Cross-reference mitigation goals and actions with other partners planning mechanisms and projects. Reduce structural vulnerability to earthquake, erosion, flood, ground failure, severe weather, tsunami, volcano, and wildland fire damages. Consider future climate change and potential impact on hazards in SBCFSA during future planning and development decisions. ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 44

45 Mitigation Action $17M Seward Airport Improvements Project for critical runway/taxiway reconstruction to restore full airport use after damages from Resurrection River flooding Photo Credit: Carol Griswold, Seward City News ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 45

46 Questions Scott Simmons Jon Philipsborn Rich Chamberlain Shane Parson Kim Pirri To learn more visit the URS/ASFPM 2014 Website: ASFPM 2014: Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Flooding in Alaska 46