GIS oriented modelling of perennial energy crops potential in Poland. Rafał Pudełko

Transcription

1 GIS oriented modelling of perennial energy crops potential in Poland Rafał Pudełko

2 GIS oriented modelling of energy crops potential - Introduction If we want plan policy for bioenergy promotion - We must know the potential of biomass!!! Writer(s) / Project Year Agrocultural Area [ milion ha ] Fisher [2] Thran et al. [3] Ericson and Nilsson [4] European Environment Agency (EEA) [5] Kuś and Faber[6] Jadczyszyn et al. [7] RENEW Project [8] Estimated potential areas for perennial biomass production in Poland, according to published data 2

3 GIS oriented modelling of energy crops potential - Introduction Why modelling should be GIS oriented? 1.Location 2.Potential theoretical, technical, economical, etc. 3.Logistic of biomass Using GIS we can combine: Database + Knowledge + Scenarios = Maps of biomass resources 3

4 GIS oriented modelling of energy crops potential - Introduction Scenario 1, theoretical potential of biomass resourses [ max area are estimated ] Scenario 2 = Scenario 1 hydrogeological restriction [areas with a lack of ground water were excluded] Scenario 3 = Scenario 2 meteorogical restriction [areas with a low rainfall were excluded] Scenario 4 = Scenario 3 ecological restriction [high protected areas were excluded] 3

5 GIS oriented modelling of energy crops potential - scenarios Soil-agricultural map Scenario 1 theoretical assessment DEM 1. Energy crops are relevant to six soil classes according to Polish classification: good rye complex - Miscanthus weak rye complex V. mallow cereal-fodder strong complex - Willow cereal-fodder weak complex Willow grasslands - Willow 2. Polygons above 350 m a.s.l 3. The output raster maps were updated to current agricultural land use by comparing with the CLC map Corine Land Cover 4

6 GIS oriented modelling of energy crops potential - scenarios Scenario 1 theoretical assessment Soils Suitable for level 1 Good rye complex Miscanthus 2.56 Weak rye complex V. mallow 2.93 Cereal-fodder strong complex willow 0.61 Cereal-fodder weak complex willow 0.38 High situated grassland willow* 2.17 Post-peaty grasslands willow* 0.93 Total milion ha 5

7 GIS oriented modelling of energy crops potential - scenarios Scenario 2 technical potential, first app. Energy crops require adequate water conditions, so it was assumed that the location of the plantations should be on an area of scenario 1, with a ground water level set at a depth of up to 2 m. Only in the case of weak rye complex that is suitable for Virginia mallow with lower water needs, the ground water level was set at a depth up to 5 m. The areas with a lack of ground water were excluded. Additionally, boggy and wet areas were excluded. Hydrogeological map 6

8 GIS oriented modelling of energy crops potential - scenarios Scenario 2 technical potential, first app. Soils Suitable for level 2 Good rye complex Miscanthus 0.31 Weak rye complex V. mallow 1.72 Cereal-fodder strong complex willow 0.13 Cereal-fodder weak complex willow 0.11 High situated grassland willow* 0.87 Post-peaty grasslands willow* 0.35 Total milion ha 7

9 GIS oriented modelling of energy crops potential - scenarios Scenario 3 technical potential, second app. Agrometeorological restriction - the areas with a deficit in rainfall were excluded. The map was made by removing part of a comprehensive area located where the average annual precipitation does not exceed 550 mm/yr Precipitation map 8

10 GIS oriented modelling of energy crops potential - scenarios Scenario 3 technical potential, second app. Soils Suitable for level 3 Good rye complex Miscanthus 0.18 Weak rye complex V. mallow 1.19 Cereal-fodder strong complex willow 0.10 Cereal-fodder weak complex willow 0.06 High situated grassland willow* 0.62 Post-peaty grasslands willow* 0.21 Total milion ha 9

11 GIS oriented modelling of energy crops potential - scenarios Scenario 4 technical potential, eco friendly. The map was made by removing part of the areas from map of scenario 3 that was located on the protected areas of land Protected areas map 10

12 GIS oriented modelling of energy crops potential - scenarios Scenario 4 technical potential, eco frendly. Soils Suitable for level 4 Good rye complex Miscanthus 0.13 Weak rye complex V. mallow 0.84 Cereal-fodder strong complex willow 0.07 Cereal-fodder weak complex willow 0.04 High situated grassland willow* 0.40 Post-peaty grasslands willow* 0.11 Total milion ha 11

13 GIS oriented modelling of energy crops potential conclusions Suitable Scenario Scenario Soils for Scenario Scenario 4 Reduction [%] Good rye complex Miscanthus Weak rye complex V. mallow Cereal-fodder strong willow complex Cereal-fodder weak willow complex High situated grassland willow* Post-peaty grasslands willow* Total Comparison of the 4 scenarios reveal that the results are strictly depend on assumptions Area reduction is high depend on kind of soil. The most sensitive is good rye complex and the least sensitive is Weak rye complex 12

14 GIS oriented modelling of energy crops potential Real Potential Which is the final potential of biomass for Power Plants in Poland? 13

15 GIS oriented modelling of energy crops potential Real Potential Which is the final potential of biomass for Power Plants in Poland? Writer(s) / Project Year Area (M ha) Fisher [2] Thran et al. [3] Ericson and Nilsson [4] European Environment Agency (EEA) [5] Kuś and Faber [6] Jadczyszyn et al. [7] RENEW Project [8] Pudełko et al

16 GIS oriented modelling of energy crops potential - System The GIS system for modelling biomass resources according to different scenarios will be developed in IUNG as a result of the STATUTORY PROGRAMME: Evaluation of the potential production of biomass for energy purposes 14

17 GIS oriented modelling of energy crops potential - BioBoost 15

18 GIS oriented modelling of energy crops potential - BioBoost Work package 1: Feedstock, potential, supply and logistic Objectives to determine the economic feedstock potential of agricultural residues, organic wastes and forestry residues in EU25 + Switzerland on the level of NUTS 3 to setup a GEO portal to demonstrate GIS results 16

19 Thank you for your attention