CHASER/MIROC ESM. HTAP2 status reports. Kengo Sudo 1,2, Takashi Sekiya 1, Tatsuya Nagashima 3. Nagoya University, 2 JAMSTEC, 3 NIES

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1 CHASER/MIROC ESM HTAP2 status reports Kengo Sudo 1,2, Takashi Sekiya 1, Tatsuya Nagashima 3 1 Nagoya University, 2 JAMSTEC, 3 NIES HTAP2 Global and Regional Model Evaluation Workshop 11 th May, 2015, NCAR Center Green, Boulder, U.S.

2 CHASER-MIROC (MIROC-ESM-CHEM) Climate Model Core : MIROC 4.5 (t42,l80) developed mainly in AORI/JAMSTEC/NIES/NU/KYU Chemistry : CHASER V4 (Sudo et al., 2011) ~250 reactions with >70 species Ox NOx HOx CH4 CO chemistry with VOCs (explicit C2s,C3s, and isoprene & terpene) Halogen (ClOx/BrOx) chemistry with PSCs chemistry (Akiyoshi et al. 2004) nudged to HALOE SO 4 2 chemistry (SO 2 oxidation with OH, O 3 /H 2 O 2, cloud ph dependent) SO 4 2 dust interaction NO 3 and SOA (frm. Isoprene/Terpenes) chemistry Aerosol: SPRINTARS (Takemura et al., 2010) BC/OC, sea salt, and dust BC aging with SOx/SOA production Direct & indirect effects (incl. ice nuclei effects) Watanabe et al. (2011) [H + ]+ [Ca 2+ ]+ [NH 4+ ] = [HCO 3- ] + [CO 3 2- ] + [NO 3- ] + [SO 4 2- ] + [SO 3 2- ] + [HSO 3- ] + [OH - ] SLCFs Forcing : O 3 (T/S), BC/OC, SO 4, NO 3, CH 4 Wet Deposition: All calculated in CHASER Natural emissions: *BVOCs,LNOx,soil NOx/NH3, ocean NH3/VOCs, wet land CH4, DMS, etc. *basically constant except for lightning Nox (~5TgN a 1 ), & dust *Terpenes/Isoprene emissions = 120, 400 TgC/yr 2

3 Experiments Model Setup HTAP2 (/MICS-III) AeroCom3-Nitrate CHASER (MIROC-ESM ver.) Resolution T42 (2.8 x2.8 ) L32 T106 (1.1 x1.1 ) L32 Chemistry O 3 -NO x -HO x -CO-VOCs, SO x, Halogen (Cl x, Br x ) Emission EDGAR-HTAP+GFEDv3 Meteorology ERA-Interim with HadISST Stratospheric O 3 HALOE climatology Experiments T42 T106 BASE CH4INC GLOALL NAMALL EURALL EASALL SASALL RBUALL 2010 MDEALL 2010 GLONOX GLOCO GLOVOC GLOTRN 2010 GLOPIN 2010 GLORES 2010 Experiments T42 BASE 2008 NGLONOX 2008 NGLOSO NGLONH NGLOTEMPA P5 NGLORH Future Plans: 1) Asian emission reduction by species (NOx/VOCs/SO2) 2) More T106 runs for

4 HTAP2-BASE: DRY BC mass conc. CHASER (T42) Larger BC in remote/polar regions (due to slow aging-speed) BC RF = 0.58 W m-2 (in CHASER) 4

5 CHASER v.s. HIPPO Aircraft Obs. HTAP2 BASE BC CO Isoprene emissions increase CO but decrease BC (due to higher aging speed) O3 CH4 5

6 Surface O 3 in East Asia simulated by CHASER High resolution run (1 o x1 o ) better simulates surface O 3 seasonal variation? 6

7 PM 2.5 : Comparison with observation in Japan Differences between the models and the observation, between the resolutions, and among the observational sites can differ significantly year by year. Analysis on different components of PM 2.5 is necessary to know the cause of resolution dependency. 7

8 Wet deposition: CHASER v.s. EANET Rishiri NH 4+ wet flux Hedo NH 4+ wet flux NO 3 wet flux NO 3 wet flux Mondy NH 4+ wet flux EANET(X) v.s. Model(Y) NH 4 + NO 3 SO 4 2 NO 3 wet flux Underestimated in the source areas (China).

9 Long-term runs ( ) with HTAP2 emissions (T42): ozone 9

10 Resolution dependency Sensitivities to horizontal resolution T106 model reduced large positive bias of MDA8-O 3 in summer OMI Obs. (MAR) Japan MDA8-O3 the U.S. T42(2.8 o x2.8 o ) NO2 VCD r = Summer (JJA) r = 0.60 T106-CHASER T42-CHASER T106(1 o x1 o ) r = 0.72 r =

11 Source-Receptor relationships Δsurf_O3 due to 20% emission reduction Domestic impact NAM EUR EAS NAM -16% T42-15% -19% T106 Foreign impact EAS -12% EUR SAS -13% -12% -32% T42 model tended to overestimate domestic and foreign impacts of emission reduction compared to T106 model. 11

12 AeroCom III Nitrate Experiments (NOx/NH3/SO2/T/RH perturbations) NO 3 (ng m 3 surface ng m 3 ng m 3 ng m 3 ng m 3

13 Global/Regional Nitrate(NO 3 ) Burdens Emission Perturbation NO 3 response NOx 20% 10 15% SO2 20% +~12% Loading (Gg) NH3 +20% % Temp. +1.5K ~10% RH +10% +0.5% RH=RH+(100 RH)*10% N America India China

14 Summary Major HTAP2 simulations with CHASER(MIROC ESM) Seasonal cycles / year to year variations are basically consistent with observations Larger BC conc. in CHASER for remote areas Low resolution model (~T42) overestimates O3 responses both to domestic and foreign emission reductions compared to high resol.(t106) model. Aerocom Nitrate: 20% emission perturbations (NOx/SO2/NH3 ) and a temperature rise (1.5K) individually cause 10 20% NO 3 changes: NOx emission impact is the most significant for surface NO 3 Additional experiments planed focusing on Asian emission reductions

15 Model Evaluation Observation v.s. Model scatter: MDA8 O 3 Europe Japan the U.S. T42 (2.8 x2.8 ) r = 0.77 r = 0.63 r = 0.60 T106 (1.1 x1.1 ) r = 0.76 r = 0.72 T106 model reduced large positive bias in summer r =