Ongoing and new projects
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- Frederick Ferguson
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2 Ongoing and new projects WEPS USDA wind erosion within AIRPACT Pollen and Asthma EPA-STAR building a pollen release and transport module within CMAQ Black Carbon Joint Fire Science study on the impact of fire on black carbon Winds in complex terrain Joint Fire Science study measurement of high resolution winds for specific terrain features and model evaluation
3 NARR WRF-EROSION-CMAQ WRF + MCIP preprocessor Hourly 12-km, 4-km, or 1- km resolution STATSGO Soil Data NASS Cropland Data Layer MODIS NDVI EROSION Hourly PM km, 4- km, or 1-km resolution CMAQ AMSR-E Soil 12-km, 4-km, or 1-km resolution New! Hourly PM km, 4-km, or 1-km resolution
4 Evaluation: October 4, 2009 Event
5 Contribution of Fire Emissions on BC Concentrations and Deposition Rates Joint Fire Science Project in collaboration with Seattle AirFire Science Group km summertime CONUS simulations To study inter-annual variability of fire contribution Historical fire data Allows for comparison with Fire Scenario Builder results WRF driven by reanalysis filed Allows for comparison with ECHAM5-driven simulations done for the global change project
6 Contribution of Fire Emissions on BC Concentrations and Deposition Rates 36-km CONUS, 12-km western US, and 4-km PNW simulations for 2008 evaluate the contribution of prescribed vs wildfires 12-km western US and 4-km PNW simulations: Focus on deposition of BC onto snowpacks, where BC decreases snow albedo
7 Pollen Modeling Framework Pollen Emission Modeling (NCAR) Daily pollen emission potential Pollen Health Linkages (USC) Temperature Precipitation Emission Potential Pollen Transport Modeling (WSU) Regional Meteorological Model: WRF V3.2.1 Pollen Release Module: Hourly pollen emission flux Dry deposition velocity Climate Projection ECHAM5, A1B Current Decade ( ) Dose response function Pollen Observation (Caltech) Daily mean pollen count Pollen Concentratio n Evaluation Regional Transportation Model: CMAQ V4.7.1 Added pollen as non reactive tracers (DIFF+ADV+EMIS+DDEP) Future Decade ( )
8 Pollen Simulation Domain Site Name AHAQMD SBBGC DAES SAQMD GAQMD SDLHMS LBAQMD MLAQMD CALTECH Full site name Anaheim, AQMD Santa Barbara Boys & Girls Club San Dimas, Allen Elementary School Riverside, AQMD Glendora, AQMD San Dimas, Lone Hill Middle School Long Beach, AQMD Mira Loma, Riverside, AQMD Caltech Campus D1 Pollen count measurement data: 8 sites for USC s Children Health Study project + 1 site at Caltech campus (Pasadena) D2 Pollen Project Update, NW-AIRQUEST, June 6, 2012
9 Pollen Modeling Evaluation Birch Caltech: missing earlier peaks Caltech: overestimate Olea Caltech: general good Oak Caltech: missing episode peak at late March Pollen Project Update, NW-AIRQUEST, June 6,
10 Pollen Rupture Study Plan The goal is to develop a time- and RH-dependent model for describing pollen rupture in atmospheric models. General approach is to observe pollen rupture under different RH conditions in a small slide chamber on a microscope stage.
11 Pollen Rupture Detection Pollen 90%RH 10 min vs 6 hours Pollen Project Update, NW-AIRQUEST, June 6,
12 Fraction of Pollen Ruptured
13 Winds in complex terrain Joint Fire Science collaboration with Missoula Fire Lab 50 sensors deployed for extended high-resolution wind observations Big Southern Butte Salmon River Canyon Priest River Exp. Forest Model evaluation WRF-high resolution WindNinja WindFOAM HHHR butte WRF 4/3 km domain
14 WRF Bias (m/s) < -5-5 to -2-2 to 2 2 to 5 > 5 4-km WRF at Big Southern Butte WindNinja
15 WindNinja Initialized with 4/3 km WRF
16 WRF-Fire sensitivity analyses Line grass fire: water vapor mixing ratio contours (kg/kg)
17 Recent new interdisciplinary research projects REACCH: Regional Approaches to Climate Change for cereal crops in the Pacific Northwest USDA $20M, 5 yrs UI, OSU, WSU BioEarth: A biosphere relevant earth system modeling framework USDA, $2.8M, 5 yrs WSU, UI, UCSB, PNNL, NCAR, Clark U. NARA: Northwest Advanced Renewables Alliance for development of biofuels for aviation USDA, $38M, 5 yrs WSU lead with multiple other institutions
18 Recent proposal submissions NASA WRF-Fire incorporation into AIRPACT NSF Earth System Modeling Biogenic SOA impacts and control western US NSF Frontiers in Earth System Dynamics role of fire within earth system modeling western US NSF Macrosystems use of stable isotopes to link sources to receptors for N deposition and cycling, integration isotope results with CMAQ and HySPLIT modeling western US
19 Questions?
20 Six sites in eastern WA and northern ID Annual wheat rotation Dry fallow rotation Irrigated rotation Conventional and no-till practices REACCH Flux Measurements CO2, H2O, N2O, CH4 fluxes annual C and N budgets
21 Pre-harvest fluxes
22 Post-harvest fluxes
23 BioEarth CCSM output for global climate Coupled models WRF meteorology CMAQ atmospheric chemistry and deposition RHESSys ecosystem dynamics CropSyst agricultural growth MEGAN biogenic emissions VIC regional hydrology Linked Models ColSim reservoir operations NEWS2 nutrient export Econ regional ag/water economics
24 Modeling Domain: The Columbia River Basin and the Western US
25 Goal and Objectives Overarching Goal: To improve the understanding of regional and decadal-scale C:N:H 2 O interactions in context of global change to better inform decision makers involved in natural and agricultural resource management. Specific Objectives: 1. Air to Land Linkage: To investigate the role that atmospheric processes play in land surface C:N:H 2 O cycles. 2. Coupled Air/Land: To explore how ecosystem changes in the PNW affect land/atmosphere interactions. 3. Coupled Air/Land/Human: To examine how potential policy changes might affect the interactions between C:N:H 2 O cycles and regional-scale climate. 4. Communication: To explore how to best communicate the model results to resource managers and policy makers.
26 Development of BioJet Fuels for the Pacific Northwest Northwest Advanced Renewables Alliance
27 Pathway for Wood to BioJet: Conifer residues (logging and mill) and poplar plantations as feedstocks for BioJet
28 Sustainability Analysis Environment Economic Social
29 What are the Regional Air Quality Impacts for BioJet Fuels? Biogenic Volatile Organic Compound (BVOC) emissions from forests and plantations how will these change due to large scale feedstock production? What is the impact on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations? Air pollutant emissions from pre-processing and central processing facilities are these different from existing forest products processing? How will these affect O3, PM2.5 and air toxic levels Changes in transportation and other current anthropogenic air pollution sources? Trade-offs in greenhouse gas impacts (N2O, CH4, CO2, O3)?
30 LAR
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