VTT TECHNOLOGY 53 NWBC 2012 The 4th Nordic Wood Biorefinery Conference Helsinki, Finland, October, 2012

Transcription

1 VTT TECHNOLOGY 53 NWBC 2012 The 4th Nordic Wood Biorefinery Conference Helsinki, Finland, October, 2012

2 Economic and ecological assessment of biorefineries findings of the German biorefinery roadmap Uwe R. Fritsche 1, Magnus Fröhling 2, Jochen Gerlach 3, Arne Gröngröft 4, Armin Günther 5, Jens Günther 6, Birgit Kamm 7, Ingo Klenk 8, Sophia Laure 2, Jörn-Christian Meyer 2, Jörg Schweinle 9, Heinz Stichnothe 9, Kathrin Strohm 9, Frederik Trippe 2, Dietmar Peters 10, Kurt Wagemann 11 1 International Institute for Sustainability Analysis and Strategy (IINAS) 2 Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) 3 Süd-Chemie AG 4 German Biomass Research Center (DBFZ) 5 Air Liquide Global E&C Solutions, Lurgi GmbH 6 German Federal Environmental Agency 7 Research Institute Bioactive Polymer Systems FI biopos e.v 8 Südzucker AG 9 Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute (vti), Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries 10 Agency for Renewable Resources (FNR) 11 DECHEMA e.v. Abstract Biorefineries are assumed to become important material and energy users of biomass. Greenhouse gas mitigation, resource efficient and sustainable biomass utilization as well as positive economic effects along the value chains are drivers for biorefinery concepts but these potential benefits have to be achieved and proven. In doing so, economic and ecological assessments play an important role. Biorefineries are a heterogeneous research and development field. Initiated by the German Federal Ministries for Agriculture, Food and Consumer Protection as well as Education and Research (BMELV) and organized by the German Agency for Renewable Resources (FNR) members from politics, industry and research elaborated the German biorefinery roadmap. This roadmap aims at systematically determining the state of development of biorefineries in Germany and at analyzing strengths and weaknesses, as well as opportunities and threats (SWOT) of promising future biorefinery concepts in order to identify a strategy of research and policy measures for decision makers. Within this roadmap a subgroup dealt with the issues of economic and ecological analyses and assessments. This paper summarizes the key findings of this subgroup. General aspects for analysis and assessment of biorefineries are sketched. Challenges with regard to data and methodologies are identified and conclusions are drawn. Introduction The Biobased Economy first emerged as a policy concept linking renewable resources and (bio-)es through industrial scale bio- and chemical technologies to produce sustainable products, jobs and income. A successful transition to a Biobased Economy will depend on a number of technological, economic, environmental and social factors. However, in the course of this, it is important to understand the full environmental and economic implications of the changes that this transition will entail. Biorefineries promise in the best case to contribute to greenhouse gas mitigation, achieve a high level of resource efficiency and a nearly residue-free and sustainable utilization of renewable raw materials. Additionally, positive economic effects along the value chain such as a strengthening of agriculture and forestry, development of regional economies, business opportunities for technologies and cost reductions are expected. Initiated by the German Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research and supported by further ministries a working 104

3 group consisting of members from politics, industry and research elaborated the German biorefinery roadmap [1]. This group led by DECHEMA e.v. and organized by the German Agency for Renewable Resources (FNR) systematically determined the state of development of biorefineries in Germany and analyzed strengths and weaknesses, as well as opportunities and threats (SWOT) of promising future biorefinery concepts in order to identify a strategy of research and policy measures for decision makers. Sustainability assessment can be used to steer the biorefinery development at an early stage and to provide urgently needed information for industry and politics to identify the most promising sustainable concepts and to support investment decisions. To find broad societal acceptance the expected advantages have to be proven and explained. Within this context economic and ecological analysis and assessment of biorefineries play an important role. Further, a sound data basis for communication and discussion of biorefinery concepts with the public can be built. For this purpose a subgroup was formed within the German biorefinery roadmap that dealt with the above mentioned topics. The works within the economic and ecological assessment subgroup of the German roadmap biorefinery provide a first evaluation and semi-quantitative discussion of essential assessment aspects. The presentation covers key findings of this subgroup. The focus lies on issues of particular relevance for the economic and ecological assessment along the whole value chain. Considered are sugar and starch biorefineries, plant oil and algae lipid biorefineries, lignocelluloses and green biorefineries as well as synthesis gas biorefineries. For a definition of these types the reader is referred to [1]. Based on these analyses challenges for the economic and ecological assessment are identified. These cover both, the need for provision of data as well as the need for methodological improvement in dealing with multiple output systems, and dynamic markets. General aspects The assessment of biorefinery concepts has to cover all stages of the value chain. This comprises growing and harvesting of the feedstock, the conversion es as well as the use and the endof-life phase as well as storage and transport along the value chain. A comparison of different biorefinery concepts is difficult due to the large number of possible variations in terms of feedstock, logistical configurations, applied technologies, products and markets, capacities, development stages and the dependencies on regional conditions. Nevertheless, such assessments can be carried out with methods from material and energy flow balancing, material and energy flow analysis, economic and life cycle assessment (LCA). It is necessary to address the particularities of biorefineries leading to gaps with regard to data and methods. Raw material provision The sustainable provision of the necessary amounts of feedstock in proper quality at reasonable cost is a crucial factor for most biorefineries as it is for other biomass conversions. The possibilities for this depend inter alia on feedstock competition with existing but also further (future) biomass utilizations. The discussion about biorefineries and securing their raw material basis leads therefore to discussions on the efficient allocation of available land in agriculture and forestry under consideration of the precedence of food and fodder production. The picture for the different feedstocks of the investigated biorefinery types, i.e. sugar and starch plants, oil seeds, green biomass, straw and wood from forests and short rotation plantations is different. Details concerning the feedstock analyses can be found in [1]. In comparison to fossil raw materials the accrual of renewable raw materials is mainly determined not by technical but by natural factors such as climate, weather, seasons, soil, and spatial distribution of the growing areas. These have to be considered in growing, harvesting, transport and storage. Particularly relevant factors are often the length of the harvesting season, the dispersed nature of the biomass supply, high water contents and low bulk densities. These are problematic because of limited storability of many agricultural feedstocks and unfavorable long distance transports in terms of costs and emissions. 105

4 To enhance storability and transportability conditioning steps such as pelletizing, torrefaction, pyrolysis, hydrothermal conversions also in combination with logistical network design measures such as a spatial or temporal decoupling of parts of the value chain are discussed. Provision of raw materials for biorefineries has to achieve at least (i) a positive greenhouse gas emission balance over the whole life cycle from feedstock growing to residue utilization, (ii) an avoidance of soil degradation, (iii) tolerable material inputs and outputs and (iv) closed material cycles for the residues (cf. [2]). Biorefineries In total 13 different possible configurations of the investigated general biorefinery types are discussed on the basis of existing literature and studies from a technological subgroup of the German biorefinery roadmap group from an economic and ecological point of view. For a detailed definition of the investigated configurations the reader is referred to [1]. The semi-quantitative, i.e. a mostly qualitative analysis, comprising first quantitative considerations for lignocelluloses and synthesis gas biorefineries, covers aspects of development stage, suitable locations, capacity in terms of raw material demand, possible product types and amounts, orders of magnitude of investments and further major economic and ecological success factors. The investigated concepts differ to a large extent in these criteria. Comparably small biorefineries such as green biorefineries are assumed to be built in close vicinity to the raw material source. They are estimated to convert approx metric tons of grass (20% dry matter) and are estimated to require total capital investments in the order of magnitude of approx. 15 million Euro. Large biorefinery systems such as synthesis gas biorefineries are discussed up to feedstock capacities of to metric tons and are assumed to require total capital investments in the order of magnitude of 250 to million Euro. The development stages vary between lab scale, e.g. for algae lipid biorefineries to demonstration plants for e.g. lignocelluloses biorefineries, synthesis gas biorefineries or bottom-up further developments of existing biomass conversion plants e.g. in the case of starch and sugar biorefineries. Depending on the biorefinery concept, aspects of the integration into existing (chemical) production sites (economies of scope), energy costs, utility costs, especially for enzymes and catalysts can play a crucial role, both regarding economic as well as ecological assessments. For the latter two it is hard to determine their influence in advance. Additionally, the envisaged efficiencies in terms of product yields but also e.g. enzyme and solvent recovery have to be achieved when the concepts are upscaled to an industrial plant. In general, the first of its kind industrial plant shows disadvantages with regard to the total capital investment but also operational costs in comparison to succeeding installations. Several installations are needed in order to realize learning and experience curve effects to reduce specific investments and costs and enhance efficiencies. High value material utilization of all product streams are essential in many cases to achieve profitability of the often more complex biorefinery conversion es. To aim at bulk chemicals such as alcohols provides the advantage of existing markets at the costs of existing and often more mature value chains. Fine chemicals production offers the possibility of yielding higher prices through product differentiation. Nevertheless, associated markets are generally smaller. This will demand for the development of suitable new product family trees and portfolios. Challenges for the economic and ecological assessment The presented semi-quantitative analysis provides first orientation for further development and optimization strategies. For a quantitative assessment of the investigated biorefinery concepts and their variants several challenges exist. First of all, the large differences between the general concepts hinder a valid and just comparison between them. A direct comparison of different concepts is because of incompatibility of the investigated systems often not goal orientated. Nevertheless, a detailed investigation of the single concepts and their variants over the whole life cycle under consideration of location dependent factors possible. 106

5 With regard to the data basis for such detailed assessments gaps occur. Regionally and seasonally disaggregated material flow analyses for raw materials, especially organic residues, are missing so far. Further, for some of the named biorefinery concepts only first rough estimates for material and energy balances exist. Here a further elaboration of plant concepts and specifications, of es and an experimental validation of material and energy flows in pilot and demonstration plants are necessary to come to meaningful disaggregated data on conditioning and conversion es. Besides this missing data methodological challenges exist, demanding for further comprehensive studies. Here especially common balancing standards for ecological indicators are needed. Further the accounting for humus formation, nitrous oxide and ammonia emissions from residues, impacts on (local) water quality and availability, direct and indirect land use change and land use efficiency, biodiversity and ecosystem services, temporal assessment, and regional specific impact assessments are necessary when assessing the environmental impacts of feedstock provision thoroughly. The combination of life cycle assessment with life cycle costing (LCC) and social life cycle assessments (SLCA) can lead towards a more comprehensive assessment regarding all pillars of sustainability. The number of different objective criteria, influencing factors, concepts and variants is large. Despite the complexity of the factors to consider the regarded systems have to be kept as simple as possible to allow meaningful conclusions. Expectations and needs of the different stakeholders should be taken into account. This requires suitable approaches for multi-criteria decision making. In general, suitable approaches to account for data uncertainties and approximations are needed. For conclusions about the advantages of biorefineries in comparison to existing utilizations of biomass but also fossil resp. mineral-based value chains the definition of suitable reference systems and according data determinations, especially for material products are necessary. An estimation of the contribution of biorefineries to climate change mitigation, raw material security and economic development within the context of limited raw material and land availability and resulting competition requires a consideration of the dynamic development of these reference systems within the time frame for the biorefinery development, i.e , as well as regional, national and international aspects. Conclusions A detailed analysis of biorefinery concepts under consideration of location-related factors can enable a quantitative assessment of these, even in early development stages. Thus, key figures for sustainability of these concepts and directions for the further development can be identified. The comparison with reference systems, other biomass utilizations and fossil-based value chains allows for drawing conclusions about the advantages and prospects of biorefinery concepts. In a semiquantitative study 13 promising different biorefinery concepts are analyzed under economic and ecological aspects. Thus a first semi-quantitative characterization and discussion of these concepts is undertaken. A detailed analysis would require covering the whole value chain. Therefore detailed data is needed with regard to raw material provision, conditioning and conversion es, logistics and reference systems. The size of the knowledge gaps varies to a large extent between the concepts. Methodological challenges exist with regard to aspects of life cycle assessment, multicriteria analyses and the treatment of uncertain data. An approach to resolve the named issues is the exemplary detailed assessment of selected biorefinery concepts in further studies with harmonized methods and data. This can enable a further evaluation of the advantages of the envisaged concepts in comparison to existing biomass utilizations and value chains based on fossil respective mineral raw materials. Additional reference data for further studies would be provided. To carry out such an assessment for all investigated biorefinery concepts is laborious but necessary to draw the intended conclusions. A two-step approach could reduce the efforts and direct the research. In a first step, a hot spot analysis, aggregated indicators are selected to identify economic key figures and map environmental impacts, e.g. carbon, water or nitrogen footprints. In a second step, detailed case studies are carried out for selected 107

6 biorefinery concepts with regard to the key figures identified in the hot spot analysis. Thus, exemplarily the questions on the relevance and influence of different factors such as enzyme and catalyst usage, water usage and land use change can be dealt with and solution approaches can be developed and discussed. This would also contribute to harmonization of methodologies. The elaborated data could serve as a basis for regional, national and international system studies concerning economic and ecological contributions of biorefineries but also other biomass utilizations. Such studies could be based on results from other research projects, e.g. [3], [4], [5], [6], [7]. A valid data basis for fossil and mineral reference systems is to be developed. Besides one single assessment, a monitoring of the socio-economic and ecological effects on the different stages in the development can identify problems and initiate corrections. Due to the immanent uncertainties assessments of biorefinery concepts will always lead to bandwidths. Nevertheless, they can accompany the discussion and development of biorefinery concepts and other biomass utilizations and contribute to achieving the goals connected with these. References 1. Roadmap Bioraffinerien German Federal Government (ed.). Berlin. URL: bmelv.de/shareddocs/downloads/broschueren/roadmapbioraffinerien.pdf. 2. Bodenschutz beim Anbau nachwachsender Rohstoffe, Recommendations of the commission soil protection at the German Federal Environmental Agency Dessau URL: umweltdaten.de/publikationen/fpdf-l/3472.pdf. 3. BioCouple Kopplung der stofflich/energetischen Nutzung von Biomasse Wuppertal Institut, Fraunhofer Umsicht, Öko-Institut, Wuppertal, Oberhausen, Darmstadt. URL: hte/endbericht_biocouple.pdf. 4. Bioraffinerie2021: Energie aus Biomasse Neue Wege zur integrierten Bioraffinerie, URL: 5. Pilotprojekt Lignocellulose-Bioraffinerie DECHEMA e.v. (ed.). Frankfurt. URL: 6. Star-COLIBRI: Strategic Targets for 2020 Collaboration Initiative on Biorefineries. URL: 7. Kalundborg Cellulosic Ethanol Project (KACELLE). URL: ELLE/Pages/KACELLE_Project.aspx. 108