SAT-BBE Overview. Systems Analysis Tools Framework for the BioEconomy. 26 November 2013, Hans van Meijl

Transcription

1 SAT-BBE Overview Systems Analysis Tools Framework for the BioEconomy 26 November 2013, Hans van Meijl

2 Contents Project partners Introduction to bioeconomy Description SAT-BBE project Model illustrations Expectations from Bioeconomy Observatory

3 Teamwork matters! Research institutes, Scientific Advisors, EC units thinking together... Research institutes: 1. LEI-WUR (Agricultural Economics Research Institute) 2. Utrecht University 3. European Forest Institute 4. Wuppertal Institute 5. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis 6. Vrij Universiteit Amsterdam 7. Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institut 8. International Food Policy Research Institute Scientific Advisors Joachim von Braun Allan Buckwell Gerrit Meester EC DGs/Agencies AGRI EEA [tbc] ENER ENTR JRC RTD (Barna Kovacs, EC project officer).

4 BBE: A layperson view Biobased products Materials Chemicals Transport fuel Energy Biomass waste Biomass crops Biomass waste Feed Food Crops

5 The bioeconomy and the interconnected societal challenges Ensuring food security Managing natural resources sustainably Reducing dependence on nonrenewable resources Mitigating and adapting to climate change Creating jobs and maintaining European competitiveness Becoteps

6 Implementing the EU Bioeconomy Strategy Purpose of project Provide analytical tools for monitoring and evaluation of the implementation of the EU Bioeconomy Strategy: Create a systems analysis tools framework to assess and address the short and long term challenges for an effective and sustainable EU bioeconomy strategy Confirm scope and definition of the bioeconomy Demonstrate how systems analysis should be applied to monitoring and evaluation of the evolution of EU objectives for shifting as much as possible to a bioeconomy within Europe Clarify, through the analysis framework, the degree of sustainability of the bioeconomy

7 Main points of SAT-BBE Support for BBE (observatory, policy\impact\scenario analyses,...) Focus is long term: primarily because lead time for many social and technological solutions is long Uses mainly existing tools, but works out how these tools can be related to each other on BBE issues Provides keys to linkage between these tools, where appropriate and feasible Identify knowledge gaps of potential data and tools

8 Aim of Bioeconomy Strategy Ensure long term economic and environmental sustainability SAT-BBE contributes: Increased efficiency and/or lower costs of biobased inputs may have net impacts that are positive or negative to the economic metric (i.e., GDP) employed Impact on land use, environment, biodiversity

9 Definition of Bioeconomy The bioeconomy encompasses the production of renewable biological resources and their conversion into food, feed, biobased products and bioenergy. It includes agriculture, forestry, fisheries, food and pulp and paper production, as well as parts of chemical, biotechnological and energy industries....<strong innovation potential as it uses a wide range of sciences>... (EC, 29 February, 2012) What has to be taken into account: Ecosystem services Circular economy

10 Sectoral structure of Bioeconomy ECONOMY BIOECONOMY NON-BIOECONOMY Agrofood, Forestry, Pulp, Bioenergy, Biochemicals, Ecosystems Energy, Chemical and other fossil based sectors Environmental Resources & Quality

11 Conceptual framework for the bioeconomy

12 SAT-BBE & Bioeconomy Observatory (BISO) BISO: Set up bioeconomy observatory: bring together relevant data sets and information sources SAT-BBE: Develop system analyses tool to assess short an long term challenges for an effective and sustainable EU strategy Complementary projects: BISO to SAT-BBE: provide insight in the availability of data and tools for the design of the conceptual framework SAT-BBE to BISO: conceptual framework could advise on useful types and sources of data and tools

13 Macro-Economic Study for Bio-based Malaysia A quantitative analysis of the economic effects of replacing fossil resources by green, bio-based alternatives in the timeframe now to 2030 (Meijl, et al. 2012). Insight in the macro-economic effects of the bio-based economy for Malaysia Focus on use of residues and waste from palm industry To understand the uncertainties and risks that determine the bandwidth of these effects Scenario-analyses are required to quantify bandwidths and to determine the effects of strategic policy choices Quantification global CGE model

14 Malaysia: Palm residues Palm fibres Empty fruit bunches Trunks, fronds, empty fruit bunches, fibers, palm kernel shells... currently NOT used...! Palm fronds Palm kernel shells

15 Economic results GDP effect/biomass volume (%/Mt) Bioethanol Biochemicals Pellets Total revenue (quantity x price) ca. 30 billion RM or 2% of the GDP = direct GDP effect = similar to NBS NET GDP effect, incl. opportunity costs is only 0.5% (exc. electricity) and 0% (inc. electricity)

16 Percentage effect on Malaysian GDP in 2030 of 6.6 Mt biomass chemicals project Price of oil per barrel in US$2007 per barrel Current technology (90) Future technology (50)

17 Impact of the use of biomass for different biobased applications in the EU Based on 1 EJ biomass use per technology Three technologies: 1) Bioelectricity, 2) 2 nd Generation biofuel and 3) Biochemicals Global economic MAGNET model The impact of the use of 1 EJ biomass for the production of fuel, electricity, chemicals on the production value and GDP (G$). Change of value of Change of value Net change of biobased of conventional value of Net GDP production production production = effect Multiplier Net GDP effect MAGNET effect Fuel Electricity Chemicals Smeets, et al., (forthcomming)

18 Impact of rebound effect on GHG balance of biofuels used in the EU

19 Data needed to monitor Bioeconomy (BISO) Value added, employment, production, trade flows, input flows, emissions, land use, etc. Cost structures of (new) bioeconomy technologies. Technological trajectories (learning effects, etc) Core: Biomass input use by various industries (energy, fuels, chemicals). Description of BBE chains. Share of output related to biomass inputs is largely lacking in existing data sources For impact analyses is needed Social Accountancy matrix Input-output structures

20 Conclusions SAT-BBE and BISO are complementary Bioeconomy definition should include eco-system services and the concept of the circular economy Design of monitoring should keep modelling needs for impact analyses into account Lots of key data are missing biomass flows to non-food industries Value added related to biomass inputs SAM\IO needed with sufficient biobased sectors\flows

21 Thank you for your attention! SAT-BBE