Case Study: Influence of Climate Change on Hydropower in Iceland

Transcription

1 IHA / World Bank Group Resilience of Hydropower and Dams to Climate Change and Natural Disasters Workshop 13 November 2015, London Case Study: Influence of Climate Change on Hydropower in Iceland Dr. Óli Grétar Blöndal Sveinsson EVP of R&D

2 Iceland is 100% renewable in electricity and heat 100% renewable Electricity generation per capita is 55 h/yr Jarðvarmi 29 % 80% power intensive load Limited transmission capacity Vatn 71 % Electricity generation (18.1 TWh 2014) 72% Hydro 28% Geothermal < 0.1% Wind Installed Power 2650 Source Orkustofnun Hydro Wind Geothermal Transmission

3 Hydropower in Iceland Hydropower potential Technically feasible : TWh/a Economically feasible: 37 TWh/a Already utilized: 13 TWh/a Energy stored in glaciers: 7600 TWh Precipitation 285 TWh/a Glaciers stored energy 7600 TWh Groundwater?? TWh Surface Runoff 187 TWh/a Glacier creep 22 *55 TWh/a Usable energy 64 TWh/a Distributed Unusable energy 123 TWh/a If glaciers melt in next 200 yrs: Runoff will increase 38 TWh/a on average Part of the increase can be utilized in existing and new power plants *Sveinbörn Björnsson (2001), Orkulindir og umhverfi rammaáætlun; Orkustofnun

4 Responding to Climate Change Participation as a stakeholder in Nordic Climate Change Projects funded in part by the Nordic Council of Ministers Climate, Water and Energy ( ) Climate and Energy ( ) Climate and Energy Systems ( ) Over 100 scientists og 30 companies/institutions Results for Iceland Changes in temperature and precipitation Impacts on glacier mass balance Impacts on runoff and hydropower

5 Iceland will get warmer and wetter What has been forecasted Warming of 2.5 C per century Temperature increase by 2100 Increased precipitation (4.8%) Changes in seasons Spring comes early Autumn is prolonged Warmer climate and shorter winters increases glacial runoff CE: Rummukainen, Euronew to , HIRHAM H A2 ( Scenario A2 from IPCC 2001)1

6 Melting of Glaciers Due to Climate Change Almost all Icelandic glaciers have been loosing mass since early 90 With warming climate this is expected to continue It has been forecasted that almost no Icelandic glaciers will be left in 2200 Flow in glacial rivers will increase concurrently with glacial melting The runoff is expected to peek in the next 50 years Volum of Ice respective to % 100% 80% 60% 2 40% Volume of glacial ice Runoff from glaciers 1 20% 0.5 0% Runnoff due to melting [m/y]

7 Change in average inflow to the main storage reservoirs Climate Change Adaptation Average inflow [m3/s] Last 50 years Last 20 years Last 15 years Last 10 years Last 5 years Temperature corrected North (Blanda) East (Karahnjukar) South (Thorisvatn) Runoff increases have been observed in historical records Operational planning uses current climate Optimization and design take future climate conditions into account Landsvirkjun has adopted an action plan to reduce emissions and to become a carbon neutral company Watershed

8 Transformation of climate measurements Change in temperature 0.75 C/100y C/100y C/100y 2000 Change in temperature deg C with respect to year 2025 Change in precipitation Average increase 4.8% / 100 y Range % Glaciers Results from CES 25% decrease in volume from 2000 to 2050

9 The Effects on Increased Runoff on Production Capacity In 2010 generation capacity had increased by 8% due to warming Energy in inflow to Landsvirkjun s system is expected to increase further by 15% from 2010 to 2050 Current system will only be able to utilize 30% of the increased runoff Capacity increase and storage increase is needed for further utilization of increased runoff Connection to other grids (IC) makes increased utilization possible GWh/y Generation capacity increase Increased inflow Including investment With out investment (refurbishment) Historical State of climate

10 Several factors have created a need for redesign Global warming Wind power Interconnection Peak Production

11 Accounting for uncertainty in design of new hydro Optimal design of hydroelectric stations responds to many external factors Installed power is a key design factor To manage uncertainty Design is optimized according to a couple of scenarios One or mix of two used in final design Scenario High Interconnector wind power High price forecast Variable load Warming climate Scenario Average No Interconnector Wind power Central price forecast, Moderate load variations Warming climate Scenario Low No interconnector Minimal wind capacity Low price forecast Constant load No climate changes 11

12 Accounting for uncertainty in design of new hydro Optimal design of hydroelectric stations responds to many external factors Installed power is a key design factor To manage uncertainty Design is optimized according to a couple of scenarios One or mix of two used in final design Example: Búrfell HEP capacity expansion Scenario high: 140 IC load Scenario medium: 100, daily load curve Scenario low: 90, industrial load Scenario High Interconnector High price forecast Wind power Warming climate Scenario Average No Interconnector Daily load curve Central price forecast, Warming climate Scenario Low No interconnector Moderate price forecast Industrial load Warming climate 12

13 Putting it all together: Búrfell HEP Expansion Climate Change Project is now feasible given increased flow Future increase part of all design scenarios Optimizing design according to different scenarios Average scenario of 100 adopted Further future expansion of additional 40 facilitated in design (High Scenario) 13

14 Climate Change Impacts Iceland will become warmer and wetter Glaciers are expected to disappear in the next 200 years Increased glacial runoff is already being observed Generation capacity has already increased 8% due to warming Energy in inflow to current hydro system is expected to increase further by 15% to 2050 Climate change adaptation and mitigation have to go hand in hand

15