Content. Methodology. Methodology

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1 Current understanding of vulnerabilities of Albania s power sector (demand and supply sides) to climate risks PhD. Besim Islami Energy Planning Engineer Team Leader of the GHG Inventory Energy Expert on Mitigation and Abatement Team Content Introduction Methodology Mati River catchment s area Present climate Climate impact on water resources Expected climate changes Power sector Current climate impacts in power sector impacts of expected climate changes in power sector Time to adapt: Adaptation measures in power sector 1 2 Methodology selection of the Mati River Catchment (MRCA) as an example area as a priority - is derived from the development of the Alternative scenario for Albanian power sector (from electricity demand and supply point of views). Under the SNC team is working for preparation of the vulnerability of Drin River Catchment Area The current trends of temperature, precipitation and runoff are identified by calculating the seasonal and yearly anomalies from the long-term averages (1961-2) To evaluate the effects of likely changes of climate on temperature increase (on electricity demand) and runoff model was applied (on electricity supply) 3 Methodology LEAP software for Development of the baseline and alternative scenarios for the Albania s power sector The Baseline Scenario - the Government measures in the frame of the Power Policy Statement (PPS) for the shortterm period (till 21) are not rigorously applied. This scenario does not consider the climate change impact to the Albania s power sector. The Alternative Scenario implies the stability of the energy sector development in general and electricity sector, in particular, by rigorously implementing the PPS up to the year 21. The Alternative Scenario describes the additional measures by the year 21 and for a longer - term period: The Scenario provides a quantitative description of the adaptation measures. 4

2 Effects on energy consumption Households energy consumption Household development Energy space heating (MWh/year) Baseline Scenario: Energy Scenario without considering climate change effects ; Demand side Space Heating Energy Demand Number of Heating Degree -Days Zone No. Shkodra 1692 Lezha 1451 Puka 2896 Kukes 2462 No. of heating degree-days Tropoja Households energy consumption Household development Energy space cooling (MWh/year) Effects on energy consumption Alternative Scenario: Energy Scenario with considering climate change effects; Demand side Space Heating Energy Demand Demand side Space Cooling Energy Demand Number of Heating Degree -Days District Shkodra Lezha Puka Kukes Tropoja Number of Cooling Degree -Days Shkodra Lezha Puka Kukes Tropoja

3 Effects on SH and SC energy Demand Alternative Scenario: Effects on SH and SC energy Demand Alternative Scenario: with CC Effect with CC Effect with CC Effect with CC Effect Shkoder Region_reduction of Space Heating Energy Demand (M Wh/ year) Shkoder Region_increase of Space Cooling Energy Demand (M Wh/ year) 1 Mati River catchment s area (MRCA) Expected climate changes Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level (IPCC, 27). The world s average surface temperature has increased by around.74 C over the past 1 years (196-25). This figure is higher than the 21 report s 1-year estimate of.6 C due to the recent series of extremely warm years, with 11 of the last 12 years ranking among the 12 warmest years since modern records began around 185. A warming of about.2 C is projected for each of the next two decades (IPCC, 27)

4 change (%) change ( C) Expected climate changes Annual changes in temperature year 21 annual changes in precipitation year change (%) change ( C) Changes in temperature, summer year Changes in precipitation, summer year!!!! Increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation!!!! The annual increase in temperature : 1., 2. and 4.1 C respectively by 225, 25 and 21 Decrease in annual precipitation: up to 3.%, 6.1% and 12.4% respectively by 225, 25 and 21!!!! may expect: milder winter, warmer springs, hotter and drier summers and autumn Small HPP Thermal Pow er Plants Hydro Pow er Plants Albanian Power System (GWh( GWh) Small HPP.53% Thermal Pow er Plants 1.32% 15.% Hydro Pow er Plants 83.15% Albanian Power System (GWh( GWh) New TPP_CCGT Fier TPP Bistrica River Cascade Drini River Cascade New HPP SHPP Mati River Cascade Mati River Cascade Generation of Ulza HPP, [GWh/year] y = -.218x R 2 = Generation of Ulza and Shkopeti HPPs, [GWh/year] y = x R 2 = Generation of Shkopet HPP, [GWh/year] y = x R 2 = Mat River Inflow for Ulza and Shkopet HPPs, [m3/sec.] y = x R 2 =

5 g eneration ( G W h ) Electricity Generation of Ulza and Shkopeti HPPs vs Water Inflow, [GWh/year] Electricity generation in MRC years Ulza Shkopet E le c tric ity g e n e ra tio n (G W h ) Electricity generation & water flow y = 4.328x R 2 = water flow (m3/s) 17 Baseline Scenario 1. Baseline Scenario for the power sector consist on a scenario according to which the Government measures in the frame of the Power Policy Statement for the short-term period (till 21) are not rigorously applied according to the action plan. 2. The scenario is developed in the framework of the development of the National Energy Strategy for Albania. 3. The time horizon for the scenario goes up to Baseline Scenario using LEAP (GWh) New TPP_CCGT 125 Fier TPP Bistrica River Cascade 11 Drini River Cascade 15 1 New HPP 95 SHPP 9 85 Mati River Cascade Baseline Scenario using LEAP; (GWh) All Thermal Power Plants All Hydro Power Plants 1% 95% 9% 85% 8% 75% 7% 65% 6% 55% 5% 45% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % All Thermal Power Plants All Hydro Power Plants 2

6 Alternative Scenario - Selection of PP based in the multi-criteria Analyze Future climate impacts on power consumption on: Space heating, Air conditioning, Water heating. Refrigeration and Future climate impacts on power consumption on: Generation of Existing of Big HPPs Generation of Existing of Small HPPs Generation of New of Big HPPs Generation of New Small HPPs Generation of Existing of TPPs Generation of New TPPs Generation of New Other RES PPs; 21 Alternative Scenario (GWh/year) An evaluation exercise (multi-criteria analysis) has been done as per a set of the criteria which involved 1. Security of power supply for all different consumers 2. Least cost concept 3. Development benefits (Millennium Development Goals) 4. Reducing harm to the environment (non climate impacts) 5. Social acceptability and suitability for country conditions 6. Market potential 7. Contribution to climate change 22 Alternative Scenario (GWh/year) Alternative Scenario (GWh/year) Results of evaluation exercise (multi-criteria analysis) Drini River Cascade Mati River Cascade 65. Bistrica River Cascade 61. Existing SHPPs New SHPPs New TPPs 5.5 New Big HPPs Fieri TPP Wind Energy PV Diesel_Generators Mati River Cascade New HPP Bistrica River Cascade New TPP_CCGT SHPP Drini River Cascade Fier TPP 24

7 Alternative Scenario (GWh/year) 9 All Hydro Power Plants 85 All Thermal Power Plants All Hydro Power Plants 1 5 All Thermal Power Plants 25 Reduction of electricity production from existing and new hydro power plants of Albania Difference in Production from SHPPs Difference in Production from New HPPs Difference in Production from Bistrica River Casca Difference in Production from Mati River Cascade Difference in Production from Drini River Cascade Increasing of electricity production from new thermal plants of Albania 75 Increase in Production from CCGTs Increasing of cost of supply for meeting el. demand as result of CC effects in hydro power plants Cost Increases (MEuro) Evaluation of priorities of proposed adaptation measures A set of adaptation measures needed to address the vulnerability of the hydropower sector against climate change is identified. 1. the promotion of the sustainable development with the objectives: a) security for energy supply, b) environmental protection, c) regional development the reduction of vulnerability with the objectives: a) minimize risk, b) minimize economic losses, 28 c) increase institutional response in the case of spill

8 Management measures Increasing contribution of thermal power plants Rehabilitation of Ulza and Shkopet HPPs considering CC The construction of new medium and big hydro power plants Construction of small hydro power plant Establishment of capacities to monitor and respond to anticipated CC impacts at institutional and community levels Regional development programmes, plans and policies and CC concerns in the Mat River Cascade integrated. Objective 1 Security of electricity supply for all categories of consumers 55 Least cost supply Goal A (5) (SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT) Objective 2 (Environmental protection) Uninterrup ted supply Reduction of GHG 25 Reduction of acid rain gasses Objective 3 (Regional economic development) Employm ent 2 Market penetratio n Objective 1 (Minimize risk) Populatio n at risk Frequency of events Goal B (5) (REDUCE VULNERABILITY) Objective 2 (Minimize economic losses) Personal asset losses 2 Insured losses Public asset losses Warning time 29 Evacuatio n time Objective 3 (Increase institutional response in case of the spill water) Evaluation of priorities of proposed adaptation measures Increasing contribution of thermal power plants Rehabilitation of Ulza and Shkopet HPPs considering CC Construction of small hy dro power plant Regional dev elopment programmes, plans and policies and CC concerns in the Mat River Cascade integrated. The construction of new medium and big hy dro power plants Establishment of capacities to monitor and respond to anticipated CC impacts at institutional and 3 community lev els Recommendatios and further considerations MRCA study basis for a future project addressing the need to piloting the adaptation measures in power sector looking for any potential donor working on this idea with UNDP's support 31 32