Roeland van Oss (KNMI)

Transcription

1 Roeland van Oss (KNMI) 1

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5 The approach of ECLISE 26 use cases IfK Specifying needs KNMI SMHI CSC Supplying data WUR SMHI WUR Drawing conclusions 5

6 WP 1 USERS Goal Tasks Lead Project-wide implementation of user interaction Documentation of user requirements Evaluation of services by users Dealing with uncertainties Conclude on best practices Fulco Ludwig, Wageningen University 6

7 No. Task Provider Data needed Extremes Coast KNMI Rainfall, storms for coastal yes Bjerkness Centre Storms extreme precip yes Cities IGAR Precip, storm, temp wind Yes Met.No. Precipitation extremes yes TUC Input data for hydrological models Yes Data requested by the Users CNR-ISAC Precipitation extremes Yes UNEW Extreme wind speed Yes Water IGAR Input for agricultural model No IGAR Extreme precip (5-10 day cum) Yes CNR-ISAS Temp and precip No TUC Input data for hydrological models No SMHI Input data for hydrological models NIHWM Input data for hydrological models Yes/no Energy CNR-ISAC Snow water equiavalent temp & precip No NIHWM Input data for hydrological models Yes CNR-ISAC Solar radiation No TUC Solar radiation No CNR-ISAC Temp degree days No 7

8 WP 2 MODELS Goal Tasks Lead Provide climate simulations to support use cases Existing simulations (e.g. ENSEMBLES) Decadal CMIP5 runs Regional CORDEX runs Non-Hydrostatic runs (2-4 km) Erik Kjellström, Rossby Centre, SMHI 8

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11 WP 3 COASTS Theme Coastal defense Tasks 1. CoastDat database 2. Flood risks NL 3. Coast protection NW Europe 4. Atlantic storm tracks Lead Ralf Weisse, HZG, Institute of Coastal Research 11

12 Change in occurrence of Storms WINTER Storm density decreases over Norwegian sea. Also, clear northeastward shift. Relative changes as high as 50% USERS Municipality of Bergen Energy production Water resources availability Coastal communities Hazard mitigation SUMMER Sobolowski, S., K. Keay and M. ds. Mesquita, (in-revision) A Decline in Future Storminess Over the Eastern North Atlantic and Western Europe? Climatic Change.

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14 More than 70 external users Mostly European (Germany) Sporadic from China or USA Users are very diverse 50% commercial (Swiss Re, Hochtief, FSG) 25% authorities (DWD, BSH) 25% research institutes (KU Leuven, AWI, Univ. Taiwan) Broad spectrum of applications Long-term changes and marine weather statistics Risk assessment Marine and offshore energy Shipping & Design 14

15 WP 4 CITIES Theme Urban issues Tasks 1. Baia Mare - floods, heat 2. Oslo - waste water 3. Greek cities - floods, heat 4. Sicilian cities - floods 5. English cities - storm 6. Rotterdam - floods, drought 7. Stockholm - floods, water Lead Ben Wichers Scheur, KNMI 15

16 Baia Mare, Romania Stakeholders: Metropolitan Association of Baia Mare (NGO) Agency of Environmental Protection, Maramureş County County Inspectorate fro Civil Protection Public Health Agency, Maramureş County Energy Efficient Department of Baia Mare Municipality Medium size urban area (~ 200,000 inhab.) The most important former mining area in Romania (2006): area of major risk of technological hazards (Seveso II Directive) Important industrial centre (Pb, Cu): increased air pollution ( ) 16

17 WP 5 WATER Theme Tasks Lead Regional water issues 1. Baragan Plain - drought 2. Vrancea - floods, landslides 3. Lombardia - water availability 4. Crete - floods 5. English cities - floods 6. Sweden - water quality 7. Somes basin - water availability Fulco Ludwig, Wageningen University 17

18 T5.4 CRETE Name of User Institute: Directorate of Water, Region of Crete What kind of climate (historic and/or future) information is currently used by the user institute? Regional Authority owns a large number of hydro-meteorological stations over the island that allow for an adequate modeling of the current (historic) conditions. Authority makes no use of future data. What kind of climate information is needed by the User institute what kind of information is needed to make the required decisions? precipitation, temperature, Epot, Timescale at least up to 2050, How will the required information be delivered? Raw time-series of basin scale information and maps To what extent is the user aware of the uncertainty? User is generally aware of the uncertainty in projections Delivery of information? Six months before the end of the project (month 30) 18 18

19 WP 6 ENERGY Theme Energy production issues Tasks Hydro power 1. Ume river dams (SE) 2. Alpine & Apennine dams 3. Somes river dams (RO) Wind power 4. Norway Solar power 5. Sicily 6. Crete 7. Energy demand Italy Lead Johan Andréasson, SMHI 19

20 T6.1 Hydro power Ume river The River Simulator : a tool for training of Hydropower staff in handling of flooding events and other critical situations 20 20

21 WP 7 CONCEPT Goal Tasks Lead concept for pan-european Climate Services Study existing climate services Case studies: water & energy Synthesis and recommendations Guy Brasseur, HZG, Climate Service Center 21

22 User involvement 26 use cases >> 26 users Needs: precipitation, extreme events Involvement: North-South gradien Level: North-South gradient 22

23 User workshop April 2013 Some conclusions: Non-scientific users Issues are broader than climate Knowledge on climate risks often small Long-term datarecords > extreme prob. 23