A fivefold increase of carbon efficiency is easily available. How can we prevent it from being gobbled up by additional consumption?

Transcription

1 A fivefold increase of carbon efficiency is easily available. How can we prevent it from being gobbled up by additional consumption? Prof. Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker, Co-Chair

2 The Copenhagen climate conference attracted more state leaders than any other event before. President Obama saw it as a success.

3 President Obama s comments after COP 15 We've accomplished a great deal over the last few days. "I want America to continue to lead on this journey. (Such statements met with vitriolic comments in the European press!)

4 Europeans and environmentalists saw COP 15 as a pure disaster. Swedish EU Presidency: A catastrophe, caused by the US and China Picture: The Guardian, Dec 8, 09

5 China and India got away with no commitments and hence liked the outcome. Said Manmohan Singh: It s good for all developing countries. Xinhua/Liu Jiansheng, PM s Manmohan Singh and Wen Jiabao joined hands in Copenhagen

6 The obvious justification for developing countries: The rich countries churn out much more CO2 per capita than the poor.

7 What is the Copenhagen Accord worth? 2 -target accepted. Emissions peak asap, Financial Assitance. Big developing countries on bord. However: no binding commitment even for the North. That s not only worse than Kyoto, but it would kill Kyoto (which was perhaps intended). Moreover: Pledges made under the Accord by Annex I countries only % by 2020 from 1990 levels, 40-plus % required. If loopholes and offsets are counted, the actual reduction is much less, perhaps even zero. The Accord must be rejected on the basis of its extremely problematic contents. (Statement by 200 NGO s March 18, Source: Third World Network)

8 From Copenhagenology back to climate. Facts and dangers.

9 The starting point is the correlation between CO2 (blue) and temperatures (red) over years

10 Also sea levels change with CO2, and that s scary.

11 Italy during the last Ice Age ( years ago)... and during the last Hot Age (2 million years ago)

12 Equivalent changes at the US coast lines.

13 Florida s coastline if the Greenland ice disappears

14 Now extrapolate that to the fate of the Asian growth regions!

15 Sudden disintegration of the Labrador ice shield (after Michael Tooley. Global sea-levels: floodwaters mark sudden rise. Nature 342 (6245), p )

16 Greenland may not be stable either. Freshwater cover (red color) in summers 1992 and 2002.

17 and here is a close-up Source: On Thinner Ice, by Bill Chameides; nicholas.duke.edu/thegreengrok/glaciers092009

18 What needs to be done and how much time we have? Stern Review: BAU (blue) vs. stabilising at 450 ppm CO2 (red)

19 The longer we wait, the more radical changes are needed Source: Investing in Cimate Change 2009 (Deutsche Bank, October 2008)

20 If prospects are so scary, why are people not willing to reduce carbon emissions?

21 The reason is very simple: So far, wealth goes with carbon intensity

22 We have to break that logic by establishing a Kuznets Curve of decarbonization! rich and carbon free

23 And then induce China, India etc. to tunnel through that curve, short-cutting the dirty hill! rich and carbon free

24 Options to respond to the challenge. Three options exist: Reduce carbon intensity of energy Reduce energy intensity of wealth Reduce wealth

25 Conventional views on decarbonization: 80% less carbon per unit of energy 10% less energy per GDP 10% less wealth.

26 My own suggestion instead: 30% less carbon per unit of energy 65% less energy per GDP Perhaps 5% less GDP Efficiency strategy less carbon in energy less energy in wealth

27 The win-win options relate to efficiency. Source: MacKinsey & Vattenfall 2007

28 A new book, Factor Five shows that a fivefold increase of resource efficiency is available. But also says that major policy changes are needed to make the transition happen. New coauthor: Charlie Hargroves

29 Let me go through some of the examples from Factor Five.

30 Transport: a more efficient fleet Today s fleet mpg Amory Lovins Hypercar, or Revolution : 120 mpg

31 Good trains and 4-lane highways instead of rotten trains and 10-lane highways Amtrak (USA) Shinkansen (Japan)

32 Telepresence meetings replacing business travel

33 An agenda for 100 years or more: reducing urban sprawl in favor of high density cities

34 Buildings: Passive houses - tenfold heat efficiency

35 Refurbishing existing buildings Upper row: Photographs Lower: Thermograms

36 LED replacing incandescent bulbs: a factor of 10 Philips 7W Master LED Energy efficiency

37 From Portland cement to geopolymer cement Carbon efficiency

38 Low carbon steel making in six steps (EAF = Electric Arc Furnace using scrap iron) CO2 Source: Factor Five, p. 149, based on Ernst Worrell (1999)

39 Materials : Cyclical economy

40 Urban mining, invented in Japan A ton of ore from a gold mine yields about 5 grams of gold, but a ton of cellphones yields 150 grams of gold.

41 118 Uuo (117) (Uus) 116 Uuh 115 Uup 114 Uuq 113 Uut 112 Uub 111 Rg 110 Ds 109 Mt 108 Hs 107 Bh 106 Sg 105 Db 104 Rf ** 88 Ra 87 Fr 86 Rn 85 At 84 Po 83 Bi 82 Pb 81 Tl 80 Hg 79 Au 78 Pt 77 Ir 76 Os 75 Re 74 W 73 Ta 72 Hf * 56 Ba 55 Cs 54 Xe 53 I 52 Te 51 Sb 50 Sn 49 In 48 Cd 47 Ag 46 Pd 45 Rh 44 Ru 43 Tc 42 Mo 41 Nb 40 Zr 39 Y 38 Sr 37 Rb 36 Kr 35 Br 34 Se 33 As 32 Ge 31 Ga 30 Zn 29 Cu 28 Ni 27 Co 26 Fe 25 Mn 24 Cr 23 V 22 Ti 21 Sc 20 Ca 19 K 18 Ar 17 Cl 16 S 15 P 14 Si 13 Al 12 Mg 11 Na 10 Ne 9 F 8 O 7 N 6 C 5 B 4 Be 3 Li 2 He 1 H 118 Uuo (117) (Uus) 116 Uuh 115 Uup 114 Uuq 113 Uut 112 Uub 111 Rg 110 Ds 109 Mt 108 Hs 107 Bh 106 Sg 105 Db 104 Rf ** 88 Ra 87 Fr 86 Rn 85 At 84 Po 83 Bi 82 Pb 81 Tl 80 Hg 79 Au 78 Pt 77 Ir 76 Os 75 Re 74 W 73 Ta 72 Hf * 56 Ba 55 Cs 54 Xe 53 I 52 Te 51 Sb 50 Sn 49 In 48 Cd 47 Ag 46 Pd 45 Rh 44 Ru 43 Tc 42 Mo 41 Nb 40 Zr 39 Y 38 Sr 37 Rb 36 Kr 35 Br 34 Se 33 As 32 Ge 31 Ga 30 Zn 29 Cu 28 Ni 27 Co 26 Fe 25 Mn 24 Cr 23 V 22 Ti 21 Sc 20 Ca 19 K 18 Ar 17 Cl 16 S 15 P 14 Si 13 Al 12 Mg 11 Na 10 Ne 9 F 8 O 7 N 6 C 5 B 4 Be 3 Li 2 He 1 H 103 Lr 102 No 101 Md 100 Fm 99 Es 98 Cf 97 Bk 96 Cm 95 Am 94 Pu 93 Np 92 U 91 Pa 90 Th 89 Ac ** Actinides 71 Lu 70 Yb 69 Tm 68 Er 67 Ho 66 Dy 65 Tb 64 Gd 63 Eu 62 Sm 61 Pm 60 Nd 59 Pr 58 Ce 57 La * Lanthanides 103 Lr 102 No 101 Md 100 Fm 99 Es 98 Cf 97 Bk 96 Cm 95 Am 94 Pu 93 Np 92 U 91 Pa 90 Th 89 Ac ** Actinides 71 Lu 70 Yb 69 Tm 68 Er 67 Ho 66 Dy 65 Tb 64 Gd 63 Eu 62 Sm 61 Pm 60 Nd 59 Pr 58 Ce 57 La * Lanthanides Rare high tech metals have recycling rates below 1%!! A tenfold increase should be easily available! >50% >25-50% >10-25% 1-10% <1%???

42 This was a window into a new universe of technologies representing a five-fold increase of carbon or energy or materials efficiency.

43 Factor Five could become the core of a new Kondratiev Cycle, - the first green one. Electricity, chemicals,cars Biotech IT TV, aviation, computers, Resource productivity, renew.energy, green system design. Steel & railroads Mechanization

44 The new Kondratiev Cycle is almost unvoidable. The big question is whether it will lead to any relief for climate and the environment. If development goes on like in the past, the answer is No. The reason is what is called the rebound effect: All efficiency gains in the past have been eaten up by additional consumption and population growth.

45 One well documented example is energy consumption in the USA. 30 years of reduced energy intensity of the USA were accompanied by a dramatic increase in energy consumption.

46 The rebound effect is also known as Jevons Paradox William Stanley Jevons in his famous book, The Coal Question observed that England's consumption of coal soared after James Watt introduced his coalfired steam engine, which greatly improved the efficiency of earlier engines.

47 The rebound effect is actually a very old phenomenon! The Neolithic Revolution: a hundredfold increase of land efficiency, - followed by a hundredfold increase of population!

48 In developing countries, the rebound effect is called development. Says Tariq Banuri (2010): Developing countries will require anywhere between a fourfold and tenfold increase in per capita energy consumption. I suggest he is totally right if he means per capita energy services.

49 Conclusion on rebound : Reducing the rebound effect and decoupling energy services from energy consumption ( Factor Five ) will not work without higher prices for carbon emissions and energy. Raising energy & resource prices is essential for making the new Kondratiev cycle take off!

50 The 6th Kondratiev needs a new understanding of productivity Old : Increasing labour productivity New : Increasing resource productivity

51 Labour productivity has increased twentyfold since After learning about the Factor Five opportunities, we can t consider it utopian to think of resource productivity increasing fivefold in 50 years an perhaps tenfold in 100 years!

52 Labour poductivity rose in parallel with labour costs Economic output per hour and gross wages per hour in the USA Almost identical pictures exist for other countries and other time spans.

53 Raw materials and energy got ever cheaper since 200 years!! So don t expect markets to trigger the new Kondratiev! Prices of industrial commodities & energy, in constant dollars

54 Instead we need a strategy of actively elevating energy prices, preferably in parallel with energy productivity increases, so as to repeat the success story of labour productivity.

55 High energy prices need not hurt the economy. Japan blossomed during the 15 years of highest energy prices.

56 Taxes or tradable permits? Tradable permits pro: Efficient allocation; automatic adjustment to economic conditions. con: Wild fluctuations/ unpredictability; social hardship and capital destruction resulting. Ecotaxes pro: Can be made predictable, socially acceptable, attracting long term investments. con: Fixed tax rates are either low and ineffective or high and politically poisoned.

57 The way out: forget about fixed tax rates and turn to a price regime of gradually raising energy prices in tune with documented increases of energy productivity. That s the strategy elaborated in Chapter 9 of Factor Five.

58 For practical purposes, a corridor of increasing energy prices may be agreed, within which some fluctuation are allowed to occur. Source: Factor Five, Fig. 9.5, p.327

59 Ecotaxes can reverse the trend in fuel consumption; they even can create / save lots of jobs Percent changes against Ecological Tax Reform Reference: UNFCC 2005

60 Next task: make the transition to a low carbon economy profitable in the South!

61 The core of all such strategies has to be per capita equal emission rights This would mean we in the North would have to go shopping for emission rights in the South. Instantaneously, that would make it profitable in China and India and elsewhere to become very energy efficient and to turn to renewable energies. Hundreds of plans for coal power plants would be scrapped.

62 The question is whether the North would be willing to agree on this. My biggest doubts, I am sorry to say, relate to the US. But we need not wait for the USA. I trust that soon Wallstreet will complain that Europe and Asia are running ahead with the new Kondratiev.

63 Finally, a few words on sufficiency. (a) Transition Towns (b) Economic growth in the kitchen

64 Rob Hopkins and The Transiton Handbook

65 Economic growth in the kitchen

66 And now the cooking stoves

67 and the cook books!

68 and finally the Sunday dinner!