1) )CLIMATE CHANGE IN ILLINOIS OS 2) WATER FOR ETHANOL PLANTS

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1 1) )CLIMATE CHANGE IN ILLINOIS OS 2) WATER FOR ETHANOL PLANTS Champaign West Rotary Club October 17, 2007 Derek Winstanley, D.Phil. Chief Illinois State Water Survey

2 Acknowledgments Ken Kunkel Xin-Zhong Liang Jim Angel Steve Hilberg Leslie Ensor Vern Knapp Al Wehrmann George Roadcap

3 Global Warming Source: Hadley Centre, UK Tem mperature (F) Global Average Annual Smoothed

4 Illinois Temperature: Annual Smoothed Source: Jim Angel, Illinois State Water Survey 56 Tempera ature (F) ILLINOIS

6 Illinois and Central USA Temperature Changes Differ from Global Trends Anomaly ( C) erature A Tempe Central USA Global Year

7 ANNUAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS

8 Vern Knapp in Winstanley et al. (2006), ISWS IEM Mississippi River at Keokuk, IA average watershed precipitation (3 gages) 11 Annual Preci ipitation 10-year moving average (inc ches) streamflow at Keokuk hes) Annual Strea amflow, 10-year mo oving average (inc 29 r =

9 U.S. 1-day duration, 1-yr return Index Prec cipitation Year

10 Illinois Annual Temperature Departure from Normal 14 Tempe erature Dep parture (F) Year 20th Century A2 5th A2 95th A1B 5th A1B 95th B1 5th B1 95th

11 Illinois Annual Precipitation Departure from Normal 10 Precip pitation Dep parture (in) Year 20th Century A2 5th A2 95th A1B 5th A1B 95th B1 5th B1 95th

12 GLOBAL CLIMATE IS A COMPOSITE OF REGIONAL CLIMATES..

13 BUT GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS DO NOT DO A GOOD JOB AT SIMULATING REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGES

14 CLIMATE CONCLUSIONS 1. Illinois is cooler and wetter than it was years ago. 2. High natural variability. 3. Difficult to identify effects of global warming on Illinois climate. 2. Large range of uncertainty in projecting future climatic conditions. 3. Climate to 2050 could be: - the same, or - warmer, or - wetter, or -drier SWS DEVELOPING A NEW CRYSTAL BALL A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL

15 ETHANOL PLANTS Over 50 ethanol plants proposed p in Illinois including Danville (2), Gilman (2), Watseka, Gibson City, Royal, Champaign. Assuming 1.5 million gallons of water per day (mgd) per plant gives total water demand of over 75 mgd enough for a city of 500, people. The 8 plants in east-central Illinois would use a total of about 12 mgd, if built. Separate analysis of water supply needed for each plant.

16 The Mahomet Aquifer Region Peoria WOODFORD CO Watseka NORTH MILES Havana Morton Pekin TAZEWELL CO Normal Bloomington` MCLEAN CO FORD IROQUOIS CO CO Gibson City Hoopeston Paxton CHAMPAIGN CO VERMILION CO Rantoul MASON CO LOGAN CO DEWITT CO Mahomet Danville CASS CO Petersburg MENARD CO Lincoln Clinton Champaign Urbana PIATT CO MACON CO Monticello Springfield Decatur Bedrock high aquifer absent Proposed ethanol plants using Mahomet Aquifer as principal source

17 FIRST PUBLIC VIEWING OF $10 MILLION MODEL OF MAHOMET AQUIFER

18 Cone of Depression in the Mahomet Aquifer 2005 DRAFT ISWS

19 ETHANOL PLANTS IN C/U AREA If the Andersons and Royal plants are built and take ~ 3 mgd water from the Mahomet Aquifer near Champaign there would be 6-10 feet additional drawdown of head in the C/U area. Wells in the shallow Glasford Aquifer also would be affected.

20 715 Pre-development Today Land Surface 660 Head 570 Head Head Mahomet Aquifer 0mgd ~30mgd 45mgd? Decline in head west of Champaign

21 WATER AVAILABILITY AND USE In 19 th Century, about 130 feet of head in the C/U area. About 30 mgd currently pumped in Champaign County has drawn head down by about 90 feet. About 40 feet of head remains. The bucket of water in the C/U area is about 70% empty, or 30% full (as measured by head above the top of the Mahomet Aquifer). 2 ethanol plants would use a total of ~3mgd which is about 15-25% of water still available in C/U area before the Mahomet Aquifer is dewatered locally. Withdrawals of water for any purpose will lower head : - Illinois i American plans to pump additional 15 mgd. - Equistar pumping about 6 mgd near Bondville. How do you want to use the 30% of water still available in the bucket locally?

22 HAVE A NICE DAY! dwinstan@uiuc.edu

WATER SUPPLIES in EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. Champaign YMCA. Derek Winstanley Chief Illinois State Water Survey IDNR UIUC

WATER SUPPLIES in EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS November 6, 2007 Champaign YMCA Derek Winstanley Chief Illinois State Water Survey IDNR UIUC Acknowledgments Al Wehrmann, Ctr. for Groundwater Science, ISWS George