Baseline Scenario. Baseline Scenario for Energy Sector

Transcription

1 Baseline Scenario The baseline scenario is constructed based on the trends, plans and policies prevailing in the Jordanian context The baseline scenario was constructed in close cooperation with the concerned institutions Development of scenarios required a projection of current levels to future levels of each kind of activity Relatively long time period considered in the assessment activity ( )

2 Baseline Scenario Baseline Scenario for Energy Sector Maximizing private sector involvement in all aspects of energy, Maximizing foreign investment in all aspects of energy, Maximizing indigenous energy sources contribution to the energy mix, Introducing new technologies in different stages of the energy cycle Adopting energy pricing policies which reflect actual cost to the economy and elimination of all types of subsidies

3 Baseline Scenario Most Probable Scenario based on National Energy Strategy: Natural Gas supply availability (reaching it s peak of 3000 MMSCM/Y in 2011) Oil Shale a total of 1500MW (5 X 300) system in the years 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2021 Nuclear Power(3 x 400 MW) system starting 2020, 2024 and 2030 Renewable Energy extrapolate historical trends and penetration rates

4 Baseline Scenario Baseline Scenario for Waste Sector Constructing the necessary domestic wastewater treatment plants to cover all cities and governorates throughout the country Wastewater quantity increasing with the increase in population Wastewater is not managed as "waste" but is collected, treated, and used in an efficient and optimized manner Appropriate wastewater treatment technologies shall be adopted

5 Baseline Scenario For Solid Waste, establish environmental friendly landfills by 2010 Open the necessary transition stations for the domestic solid wastes when it is needed to enhance the collection and handling of the solid waste A second cell in Al-Ghabawi landfill will be opened to receive the solid waste as well as a leachate treatment plant Solid Waste quantities increase proportionally with population Expected amounts of domestic solid waste generated were calculated based on a generation rate of 0.9 Kg/capita/day

6 Baseline Scenario Baseline Scenario for Agriculture Based on the plans, policies and strategies announced and adopted by the Government of Jordan: Conserve land, water and natural vegetation Conserve Jordan's biodiversity Improve the technical and managerial capabilities in the agricultural sector Monitor environmental changes, and combat desertification Restore degraded Ecosystem of rangelands and forests

7 Baseline Scenario GHG emissions in Baseline Scenario Year Total emission Gg CO2e % CO2 % CH 4 % N 2 O

8 Gg CO 2eq Baseline Scenario Emissions Composition Figure 1 Total GHG Emissions TotalCO2eq Gg CO 2 CH 4 (co2eq) N2O (co2eq) TotalCO2eq Gg

9 Gg CO2eq. Baseline Scenario Sectoral Composition of Emissions Figure 2 Sectoral Emissions Total Energy Total Ind. Process Total Agriculture Total LUCF Total Waste

10 Gg Baseline Scenario Emissions from Electricity Generation Figure 11 CO2 Emissions form Electricity Generation Sector CO

11 Mitigation Scenario Set of criteria reflecting country-specific conditions: Potential for large impact on greenhouse gases Direct and indirect economic impacts Consistency with national development goals Consistency with national environmental goals Sustainability of an option Data availability for evaluation

12 Mitigation Scenario Mitigation Projects identified in the following sectors: Primary Energy Renewable Energy Energy Efficiency Waste Sector (Solid Waste &Waste Water) Agriculture A total of 38 Projects

13 Mitigation Scenario Emission reductions and emission reduction unit cost for Municipal Solid Waste projects Project Name Total Emission Reductions Ton CO 2 eq Reduction Unit Cost JD/t CO 2eq Aldulail DSWLF 2,109, AL-Ekaider DSWLF 4,218, Al-Karak DSWLF 5,274, Al-Salt DSWLF 1,758, Maddaba DSWLF 3,339, Total 16,670,000

14 Mitigation Scenario Emission reductions and emission reduction unit cost for DWWTP Projects Project Name Total Emission Reductions Ton CO 2 eq Reduction Unit Cost JD/t CO 2eq Aqaba tertiary DWWTP 296, As-Samra DWWTP 14,115, Baqa'a tertiary DWWTP 741, Madaba DWWTP 288, Ramtha DWWTP 397, Salt DWWTP 305, Wadi Arab DWWTP 1,716, Total 17,861,673

15 Mitigation Scenario/Energy Efficiency Projects Project Name Total Emission Reductions Ton CO 2 eq Reduction Unit Cost JD/t CO 2eq Ceramic Factories Food Factory Insulation/food factory Waste Heat Rec./Hotel Winter pool/hotel Medical factory/ballast canning factory/compressed air Solar heating/hotel CF Lamps/Residential VSD in Pumps/Paper fac Steel factory/reg. burners Mining industry/heat recover Total

16 Mitigation Scenario/Primary Energy Projects Project Name Total Emission Reductions Thousand Ton CO 2 eq Reduction Unit Cost JD/t CO 2eq Demand Side Management Natural Gas Network/Aqaba Natural Gas Network/Zarqa Natural Gas Network/Amman Samra Power Conversion to CC Total

17 Mitigation Scenario/Renewable Energy Projects Project Name Total Emission Reductions Thousand Ton CO 2 eq Reduction Unit Cost JD/t CO 2eq Aqaba Wind farm 2,064, Kamsha Wind farm 2,124, Al-Hareer Wind farm 12,989, Ibrahimya Wind farm 1,940, Fujaij Wind farm 2,915, Ma'an Wind farm 8,209, solar water heaters 33,769, Total 64,013,113.00

18 Mitigation Scenario Agriculture Sector Projects Project Name Total Emission Reductions Thousand Ton CO2 eq Reduction Unit Cost JD/t CO2eq Growing Perennial Forages in the Badia Region best management practices in Irrigated farming fertilization appl ictions

19 Reductions & Emissions (000 ) t CO2e Baseline Scen ario Emiss ions Mitigation Scen ario Emiss ions Reductions Reductions %

20 Baseline & Mitigation Scenario Emissions

21 GHG Abatement Marginal Cost Curve